How to bet Dallas-Arizona
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
9/25/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele and Erin Rynning) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Monday night's tilt between the Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday afternoon.
Matchup: Dallas at Oakland
Spread: 46.5
Total: Dallas -3
PickCenter public consensus pick: 74 percent on Dallas
Phil Steele
After an expected win last weekend in the "Black Hole" against the Jets, the Raiders head east for a second time this season. They are sporting an excellent 13-3 ATS mark in road games dating back to the start of 2015. While the Redskins also finished with a victory last week in their road trip to Los Angeles, they struggled in their home opener against the Eagles (outgained 356-264) in the 13-point defeat. With one of the strongest and more consistent offensive lines in the NFL protecting quarterback Derek Carr, I'll call for the Raiders to remain undefeated and get the cover this weekend in the process.
ATS pick: Oakland
Erin Rynning
Expect a bounce-back performance from the Cowboys after their humiliating defeat a week ago to the Denver Broncos. However, the Broncos put an outstanding game plan in for other teams to follow, shutting down the running game and forcing Dak Prescott to throw 50 passes. Carson Palmer has played shaky at quarterback in his first two games against certainly less-than-stellar defensive units. Obviously the onus is further spread to Palmer with the loss of standout running back David Johnson, leaving continued lingering questions on this offense.
Pick: Pass
Warren Sharp
The Cowboys' secondary was their undoing last week in Denver, but a key problem is their inability to focus on their own run game. In the first half last week, the Cowboys called four Ezekiel Elliott runs and Chris Jones had four punts. So far this season inside the opponent's 15 yards line, the Cowboys have called 93 percent pass and only seven percent run plays. I believe that ratio simply must change, especially on the road in Arizona against a good defense. On the other side of the ball, while the Cowboys will get Orlando Scandrick back in their secondary, they will be without two more key members of their secondary. Palmer absolutely must get support from the run game, but the Cardinals might want to try to pass in order to open up the run.
Pick: Pass
Parolin's prop bets
65.5 receiving yards by Larry Fitzgerald (O/U -110)
It's been a frustrating season for the Cardinals' offense, which has ranked in the top six in the NFL in both points and yards -- when trailing by at least 10 points. In all other situations, they're outside the top 20 in yards. It's tempting to place a lot of the blame on Palmer, and he hasn't been good -- he's completed barely half (51 percent) of his passes to wide receivers this season, and his 58 percent completion percentage when not pressured is the second lowest in the NFL.
But Palmer is still averaging 8.5 yards per attempt when not pressured, eighth-best in the league. Considering how infrequently he completes those passes, he's getting some sizeable gains when he does connect. The lion's share of those targets goes to Fitzgerald -- 16 when Palmer isn't pressured, five more than any other Cardinal.
Using Palmer's 8.5 yards per attempt average when un-pressured, Fitzgerald needs eight clean targets from Palmer to hit a reasonable over -- right at his current average. The Dallas pass rush has pressured opposing quarterbacks on 19 percent of pass plays, sixth worst in the league and worse than both the Lions and Colts (against whom Arizona opened their season). As for the secondary? Both Detroit and Indianapolis rank in the top 10 in completion percentage allowed this season, while the Cowboys are third worst. There's a chance here for the Cardinals' offense.
The play: Over
96.5 rushing yards by Ezekiel Elliott (O/U -110)
Elliott made waves over the past week by admitting to a lack of effort in Dallas' loss to the Broncos. It's natural to assume Elliott's apologies will lead to scorching production from the Cowboys' star running back in his first chance to prove his effort, except the other team is trying too -- and 97 yards is an awful lot to ask of anyone against the Cardinals' defense.
While Arizona's previous (Lions, Colts) competition admittedly doesn't emphasize or execute the run as well as Dallas, the Cardinals have allowed 2.8 yards per rush this season, fourth best in the league. The 79 rush yards per game Arizona has allowed is 10th best in the league, and they aren't afraid to commit extra defenders to stop the run. The Cardinals loaded the box (more defenders than blockers near the line of scrimmage) on 11 rushes (for 13 yards) in the first two games against the likes of Frank Gore and Ameer Abdullah.
They're well-equipped to emulate what the Broncos did to Elliott last week, loading the box on four of his nine rushes for 7 yards. Both the Cardinals and Broncos have excellent man-to-man cornerbacks, to the point that they've even argued over who deserves the "No-Fly Zone" nickname. Arizona should take a page out of the Broncos' book and dare Prescott to beat them. If Deone Bucannon makes his return this week (keeping some of Arizona's other linebackers closer to the line of scrimmage), Elliott's day will get even harder.
The play: Under
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
9/25/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele and Erin Rynning) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Monday night's tilt between the Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday afternoon.
Matchup: Dallas at Oakland
Spread: 46.5
Total: Dallas -3
PickCenter public consensus pick: 74 percent on Dallas
Phil Steele
After an expected win last weekend in the "Black Hole" against the Jets, the Raiders head east for a second time this season. They are sporting an excellent 13-3 ATS mark in road games dating back to the start of 2015. While the Redskins also finished with a victory last week in their road trip to Los Angeles, they struggled in their home opener against the Eagles (outgained 356-264) in the 13-point defeat. With one of the strongest and more consistent offensive lines in the NFL protecting quarterback Derek Carr, I'll call for the Raiders to remain undefeated and get the cover this weekend in the process.
ATS pick: Oakland
Erin Rynning
Expect a bounce-back performance from the Cowboys after their humiliating defeat a week ago to the Denver Broncos. However, the Broncos put an outstanding game plan in for other teams to follow, shutting down the running game and forcing Dak Prescott to throw 50 passes. Carson Palmer has played shaky at quarterback in his first two games against certainly less-than-stellar defensive units. Obviously the onus is further spread to Palmer with the loss of standout running back David Johnson, leaving continued lingering questions on this offense.
Pick: Pass
Warren Sharp
The Cowboys' secondary was their undoing last week in Denver, but a key problem is their inability to focus on their own run game. In the first half last week, the Cowboys called four Ezekiel Elliott runs and Chris Jones had four punts. So far this season inside the opponent's 15 yards line, the Cowboys have called 93 percent pass and only seven percent run plays. I believe that ratio simply must change, especially on the road in Arizona against a good defense. On the other side of the ball, while the Cowboys will get Orlando Scandrick back in their secondary, they will be without two more key members of their secondary. Palmer absolutely must get support from the run game, but the Cardinals might want to try to pass in order to open up the run.
Pick: Pass
Parolin's prop bets
65.5 receiving yards by Larry Fitzgerald (O/U -110)
It's been a frustrating season for the Cardinals' offense, which has ranked in the top six in the NFL in both points and yards -- when trailing by at least 10 points. In all other situations, they're outside the top 20 in yards. It's tempting to place a lot of the blame on Palmer, and he hasn't been good -- he's completed barely half (51 percent) of his passes to wide receivers this season, and his 58 percent completion percentage when not pressured is the second lowest in the NFL.
But Palmer is still averaging 8.5 yards per attempt when not pressured, eighth-best in the league. Considering how infrequently he completes those passes, he's getting some sizeable gains when he does connect. The lion's share of those targets goes to Fitzgerald -- 16 when Palmer isn't pressured, five more than any other Cardinal.
Using Palmer's 8.5 yards per attempt average when un-pressured, Fitzgerald needs eight clean targets from Palmer to hit a reasonable over -- right at his current average. The Dallas pass rush has pressured opposing quarterbacks on 19 percent of pass plays, sixth worst in the league and worse than both the Lions and Colts (against whom Arizona opened their season). As for the secondary? Both Detroit and Indianapolis rank in the top 10 in completion percentage allowed this season, while the Cowboys are third worst. There's a chance here for the Cardinals' offense.
The play: Over
96.5 rushing yards by Ezekiel Elliott (O/U -110)
Elliott made waves over the past week by admitting to a lack of effort in Dallas' loss to the Broncos. It's natural to assume Elliott's apologies will lead to scorching production from the Cowboys' star running back in his first chance to prove his effort, except the other team is trying too -- and 97 yards is an awful lot to ask of anyone against the Cardinals' defense.
While Arizona's previous (Lions, Colts) competition admittedly doesn't emphasize or execute the run as well as Dallas, the Cardinals have allowed 2.8 yards per rush this season, fourth best in the league. The 79 rush yards per game Arizona has allowed is 10th best in the league, and they aren't afraid to commit extra defenders to stop the run. The Cardinals loaded the box (more defenders than blockers near the line of scrimmage) on 11 rushes (for 13 yards) in the first two games against the likes of Frank Gore and Ameer Abdullah.
They're well-equipped to emulate what the Broncos did to Elliott last week, loading the box on four of his nine rushes for 7 yards. Both the Cardinals and Broncos have excellent man-to-man cornerbacks, to the point that they've even argued over who deserves the "No-Fly Zone" nickname. Arizona should take a page out of the Broncos' book and dare Prescott to beat them. If Deone Bucannon makes his return this week (keeping some of Arizona's other linebackers closer to the line of scrimmage), Elliott's day will get even harder.
The play: Under
