And people/bettors are still over-discerned about the spread for prime-time games.

HappyKane · Sep 25, 2017

[FONT=&quot]I will not scrutinize how people bet. Its okay to buy points to get off of key numbers. But for prime-time games -- just keep in mind... of the "mantra" that the spreads rarely matter for these games. I've been preaching this for 10 seasons now. [/FONT][FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]If it is not a divisional rival game, bet the favorite or take the underdog moneyline with confidence. Write this down and post it on your wall and keep it there for the next 10 seasons.

SEP 25 MON	DAL -2½ @ ARI	result?	will the spread matter?
SEP 24 SUN	OAK -3 @ WAS	Redskins won 27-10	spread did not matter -- underdog SU
SEP 21 THU	LAR -3 @ SF	Rams won 41-39	divisional rival
SEP 18 MON	DET +3 @ NYG	Lions won 24-10	spread did not matter -- underdog SU
SEP 17 SUN	GB +3 @ ATL	Falcons won 34-23	spread did not matter -- fave blow-out
SEP 14 THU	HOU +5½ @ CIN	Texans won 13-9	spread did not matter -- underdog SU
SEP 11 MON	NO +3 @ MIN	Vikings won 29-19	spread did not matter -- fave blow-out
SEP 11 MON	LAC +3 @ DEN	Broncos won 24-21	divisional rival
SEP 10 SUN	NYG +6 @ DAL	Cowboys won 19-3	spread did not matter -- fave blow-out
SEP 7 THU	KC +8 @ NE	Chiefs won 42-27	spread did not matter -- underdog SU

[/FONT]

HappyKane · Sep 25, 2017

Giants Cowboys was a NFC East rivalry game. My bad. The point is made though.

Loves2kickass · Sep 25, 2017

Good read, thank you.

YaBoyPDDY · Sep 25, 2017

Any live bets points over 14.5 and you have a chance

eventhorizon · Sep 25, 2017

Spreads Matter.

AlistairCookie · Sep 26, 2017

Spread only mattered in one non-div game this week.

eventhorizon · Sep 26, 2017

It is a shame you do not understand the math behind the spread. Please don't suggest laying the points with the fav and taking the money line with the dog on the same game. That won't work. P.S. One week does not a season make.

MalikSealy · Sep 26, 2017

event horizon said:
It is a shame you do not understand the math behind the spread. Please don't suggest laying the points with the fav and taking the money line with the dog on the same game. That won't work. P.S. One week does not a season make.

he's not suggesting you take both the fav and the ml dog in the same game. he said if you like the fav, take it. but if you like the dog take it on the ml bc the points rarely come in to play in non-division primetime games.

as for one week making a season, he's not suggesting that either. yes, the games he listed are from this season, but he could go back farther. this has been the case in prev years too...

Cheddar · Sep 26, 2017

You still have to pick the correct side. Enlighten me with the play before the game

eventhorizon · Sep 27, 2017

People are always back fitting with different filters to get the result they want. The results never last.

jgm4661 · Sep 27, 2017

You still have to pick the dogs that win outright and the favs who cover. The pts always matter for your analysis as it tells you they have made a bad estimation of the line or not considered something which will have an effect.

Bruins4Life · Sep 28, 2017

event horizon said:
People are always back fitting with different filters to get the result they want. The results never last.

The "spread" has only mattered in 17% of all games in the last 10 years. How much back testing do you need?
This has been Ace-Ace's premise for as long as I can remember.

PoundFoolish · Sep 28, 2017

this is silly

RDuddy · Sep 28, 2017

Bruins4Life said:
The "spread" has only mattered in 17% of all games in the last 10 years. How much back testing do you need?
This has been Ace-Ace's premise for as long as I can remember.

Just in regards to NFL, right?

Cheddar · Sep 28, 2017

Bruins4Life said:
The "spread" has only mattered in 17% of all games in the last 10 years. How much back testing do you need?
This has been Ace-Ace's premise for as long as I can remember.

Your numbers may be accurate, but as I stated above.....You still have to pick the correct side. And hang on, here is the hard part....You actually have to do it BEFORE the game starts

vinnyvegas · Sep 28, 2017

IF you pay attention as has been mentioned, the POINTS DON'T MATTER. Pick the SU winner and the points don't matter. Shocking but true. FAV or DOG, pick who WINS SU and if you can do that, you'll win at an extremely high %. It's a FACT. Too many get bamboozled and caught up in the spread hence Vegas wins.

rpark · Sep 28, 2017

If you like the favourite take the favorite minus the points not the ml. If you like the dog take the dog ml instead of the plus points. This is what the results r saying.

Bruins4Life · Sep 28, 2017

RDuddy said:
Just in regards to NFL, right?

Just the NFL, correct.

eventhorizon · Sep 28, 2017

Looks like Bruins4life and vinny vegas want to remain ignorant. Until they understand the importance of the spread they will always lose. Saying the spread does not matter is like saying the ML does not matter. People say "just pick the winner SU and the money line does not matter". The spread is a beautiful thing. Those who understand it will win lots of money, those who do not will always be losers. Go ahead and ignore the spread and see if that helps you pick winners. It won't. Good luck, you will need it.

arniesarmy · Sep 28, 2017

event horizon said:
Looks like Bruins4life and vinny vegas want to remain ignorant. Until they understand the importance of the spread they will always lose. Saying the spread does not matter is like saying the ML does not matter. People say "just pick the winner SU and the money line does not matter". The spread is a beautiful thing. Those who understand it will win lots of money, those who do not will always be losers. Go ahead and ignore the spread and see if that helps you pick winners. It won't. Good luck, you will need it.

Unreal. What the premise is if the favorite wins, it covers. If the underdog covers, it wins straight up--it doesn't need the points.
In only 17 percent of NFL games-- l'm using the percentage posted-- does a favorite win straight up and not cover or an underdog cover and not win straight up. So in 83 percent of the ND games, the straight up winner cashes. So if you can predict the straight up winner, you cash 83 percent of time in ND games.
Now predicting the straight up winner is the difficult part.
Comprende?

And people/bettors are still over-discerned about the spread for prime-time games.

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