CFB betting look for Week 5: Can Iowa move on from heartbreak?
Will Harris
ESPN INSIDER
9/26/17
Our college football look-ahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season. Join us in Week 5 for a look at an ACC rebuild coming to fruition, a classic Big Ten matchup and a team that's too undisciplined to back. Plus, the handicapper's toolbox breaks down what makes a bad favorite.
Portfolio checkup
Which teams we're buying and selling and why.
Buy
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Wake Forest will be the fourth program that proven builder Dave Clawson takes from losing seasons to double-digit wins. Clawson previously authored turnarounds at Fordham, Richmond and Bowling Green, and his vision is being executed the same way in Winston-Salem: with patience, redshirting and gradual roster building. When the two-deep finally fills with upperclassmen proficient in both the program's playbook and its culture, the wins have historically come for Clawson's teams.
That's where Wake is now. A formerly pedestrian offense has finally caught up with a reliable defense, and the roster now has ACC-caliber depth. Last week's narrow escape at Appalachian State was a perfect way to get to 4-0. This team was humbled a bit and reminded of the value of preparation and staying locked in every week. The team also proved to itself that it can come from behind and win even without its best stuff. The impressive 4-0 start is no fluke, and the Deacs will continue to build upon the 2016 breakthrough that saw the school's first winning season since 2008. This bunch is ready to compete with anybody in the ACC.
Sell
South Florida Bulls
The Bulls treated weeknight viewers to a pair of nationally televised blowouts of Illinois and Temple the past two weeks, outgaining those foes by a whopping 650 yards. Quarterback Quinton Flowers is a special athlete, and there's plenty of offensive skill around him. This is a fast, physical, athletic roster, and all three phases are explosive and dangerous. USF is also self-destructive at times.
The Bulls' warts have been on display in all four games this season: too many penalties, boneheaded mistakes and discipline issues. The team often plays fast and hard but not smart, and the offense is prone to lulls and occasional wasted possessions. Charlie Strong inherited a ready-made team, but he doesn't have full control of it yet. The Bulls are dangerous to themselves and others, and while they'll explode and rout a few more teams this year, we aren't trusting them with our money.
That's largely because the Bulls are now a ranked commodity, and the value has slumped. Willie Taggart changed the offense to an up-tempo scheme that fit Flowers well in 2015, and the result was a 10-3 ATS record in a year in which USF went 8-5 for its first winning season in five years. Last year, Flowers took another step, the offense averaged more than 500 yards per game and the Bulls broke out with an 11-2 season. The prices still hadn't quite caught up, and the ATS record was still strong despite slipping to 8-5. This year, the value has faded. There are lofty expectations, especially regarding the explosive talent on offense, and the gaudy blowouts on weeknight television are only fueling them. South Florida is about to be asked to lay prices never before seen in program history, and while the expected athleticism has been on display, indications are that the maturity, discipline and consistency are sketchy enough to run from investing.
Slate standout
A game we'll be studying closely this week and what we're looking for.
Michigan State Spartans (-3.5) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
It's a bad look to get blown out at home in a big game after an open date that followed two encouraging tuneups, but don't be discouraged by Michigan State's apparent step back. Notre Dame is a top-10-caliber team. This whole Spartan outfit is a lot like new starting quarterback Brian Lewerke: young but very promising. We're also fans of the way Iowa goes about its business and generally are looking to back both of these upper-division Big Ten programs. The Hawkeyes are a more veteran group whose own winning formula was nearly enough against Penn State, despite a massive yardage deficit.
Losing an emotional game on the last play is always tough, though. Can the Hawks get out of the tank? If not, we could like Michigan State here. But the Spartans have their own challenges after a lopsided, turnover-fueled loss to the Irish in which the defense allowed 5 yards per carry to each of Notre Dame's top three rushers.
The goal this week will be to determine which team has its mind right for this physical clash. Iowa needs to shake the hangover, and for Sparty the biggest question is whether the team's confidence is damaged. With a trip to Ann Arbor next, Michigan State can ill afford to drop a second straight home game, but has the Notre Dame loss sown too much doubt about whether this team is ready to compete with the toughest stretch of the schedule?
Finally ... we try not to harp on it constantly here because it goes without saying, but this is a good spot for a reminder that as always, it's about getting a favorable price. These programs seek to play 24-20 type games, and four of their past seven meetings have been decided by a field goal or less.
Handicapper's toolbox
A different concept every Monday, and how to apply it on Saturday.
Always be vigilant against "bad favorites."
Bad favorites are teams that perform the role of favorite rarely, and unreliably. Expansion has overpopulated the bottom tier of the FBS, and consequently there are plenty of really poor teams occasionally asked to lay double digits these days, especially in the less recently stabilized leagues like Conference USA and the Sun Belt.
The bad-favorite archetype is a program that hasn't won much at all the past several years, let alone posted winning seasons. Rarely favored to win, its players are accustomed to losing. These teams aren't good enough to play four mistake-free quarters, lack explosive playmakers, aren't accustomed to playing with leads and haven't had enough experience closing out games. Any victory is usually hard-earned. These are not the teams you want to ask to win, let alone by large margins.
Some games that fit the profile this week:
Buffalo Bulls (-6.5) vs. Kent State Golden Flashes
Last week's 34-31 win as 1.5-point chalk against Florida Atlantic was the Bulls' first turn laying points in an FBS game since 2015 and their first cover when favored in six tries.
Florida International Golden Panthers (-12.5) vs. Charlotte 49ers
FIU also rode an 0-5 ATS streak when favored into last week (a 13-7 win over Rice). The Panthers haven't had a winning season since 2011 and haven't handed out double digits since 2015.
Louisiana Monroe Warhawks (-11) vs. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
The Warhawks have won just six games the past two years and have covered just one of their last five as chalk.
Army Black Knights (-24) vs. UTEP Miners
Army is a notoriously bad favorite, the poster boy for the concept. This is the most weight the Knights have laid against an FBS opponent since at least the early 1970s.
Will Harris
ESPN INSIDER
9/26/17
Our college football look-ahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season. Join us in Week 5 for a look at an ACC rebuild coming to fruition, a classic Big Ten matchup and a team that's too undisciplined to back. Plus, the handicapper's toolbox breaks down what makes a bad favorite.
Portfolio checkup
Which teams we're buying and selling and why.
Buy
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Wake Forest will be the fourth program that proven builder Dave Clawson takes from losing seasons to double-digit wins. Clawson previously authored turnarounds at Fordham, Richmond and Bowling Green, and his vision is being executed the same way in Winston-Salem: with patience, redshirting and gradual roster building. When the two-deep finally fills with upperclassmen proficient in both the program's playbook and its culture, the wins have historically come for Clawson's teams.
That's where Wake is now. A formerly pedestrian offense has finally caught up with a reliable defense, and the roster now has ACC-caliber depth. Last week's narrow escape at Appalachian State was a perfect way to get to 4-0. This team was humbled a bit and reminded of the value of preparation and staying locked in every week. The team also proved to itself that it can come from behind and win even without its best stuff. The impressive 4-0 start is no fluke, and the Deacs will continue to build upon the 2016 breakthrough that saw the school's first winning season since 2008. This bunch is ready to compete with anybody in the ACC.
Sell
South Florida Bulls
The Bulls treated weeknight viewers to a pair of nationally televised blowouts of Illinois and Temple the past two weeks, outgaining those foes by a whopping 650 yards. Quarterback Quinton Flowers is a special athlete, and there's plenty of offensive skill around him. This is a fast, physical, athletic roster, and all three phases are explosive and dangerous. USF is also self-destructive at times.
The Bulls' warts have been on display in all four games this season: too many penalties, boneheaded mistakes and discipline issues. The team often plays fast and hard but not smart, and the offense is prone to lulls and occasional wasted possessions. Charlie Strong inherited a ready-made team, but he doesn't have full control of it yet. The Bulls are dangerous to themselves and others, and while they'll explode and rout a few more teams this year, we aren't trusting them with our money.
That's largely because the Bulls are now a ranked commodity, and the value has slumped. Willie Taggart changed the offense to an up-tempo scheme that fit Flowers well in 2015, and the result was a 10-3 ATS record in a year in which USF went 8-5 for its first winning season in five years. Last year, Flowers took another step, the offense averaged more than 500 yards per game and the Bulls broke out with an 11-2 season. The prices still hadn't quite caught up, and the ATS record was still strong despite slipping to 8-5. This year, the value has faded. There are lofty expectations, especially regarding the explosive talent on offense, and the gaudy blowouts on weeknight television are only fueling them. South Florida is about to be asked to lay prices never before seen in program history, and while the expected athleticism has been on display, indications are that the maturity, discipline and consistency are sketchy enough to run from investing.
Slate standout
A game we'll be studying closely this week and what we're looking for.
Michigan State Spartans (-3.5) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
It's a bad look to get blown out at home in a big game after an open date that followed two encouraging tuneups, but don't be discouraged by Michigan State's apparent step back. Notre Dame is a top-10-caliber team. This whole Spartan outfit is a lot like new starting quarterback Brian Lewerke: young but very promising. We're also fans of the way Iowa goes about its business and generally are looking to back both of these upper-division Big Ten programs. The Hawkeyes are a more veteran group whose own winning formula was nearly enough against Penn State, despite a massive yardage deficit.
Losing an emotional game on the last play is always tough, though. Can the Hawks get out of the tank? If not, we could like Michigan State here. But the Spartans have their own challenges after a lopsided, turnover-fueled loss to the Irish in which the defense allowed 5 yards per carry to each of Notre Dame's top three rushers.
The goal this week will be to determine which team has its mind right for this physical clash. Iowa needs to shake the hangover, and for Sparty the biggest question is whether the team's confidence is damaged. With a trip to Ann Arbor next, Michigan State can ill afford to drop a second straight home game, but has the Notre Dame loss sown too much doubt about whether this team is ready to compete with the toughest stretch of the schedule?
Finally ... we try not to harp on it constantly here because it goes without saying, but this is a good spot for a reminder that as always, it's about getting a favorable price. These programs seek to play 24-20 type games, and four of their past seven meetings have been decided by a field goal or less.
Handicapper's toolbox
A different concept every Monday, and how to apply it on Saturday.
Always be vigilant against "bad favorites."
Bad favorites are teams that perform the role of favorite rarely, and unreliably. Expansion has overpopulated the bottom tier of the FBS, and consequently there are plenty of really poor teams occasionally asked to lay double digits these days, especially in the less recently stabilized leagues like Conference USA and the Sun Belt.
The bad-favorite archetype is a program that hasn't won much at all the past several years, let alone posted winning seasons. Rarely favored to win, its players are accustomed to losing. These teams aren't good enough to play four mistake-free quarters, lack explosive playmakers, aren't accustomed to playing with leads and haven't had enough experience closing out games. Any victory is usually hard-earned. These are not the teams you want to ask to win, let alone by large margins.
Some games that fit the profile this week:
Buffalo Bulls (-6.5) vs. Kent State Golden Flashes
Last week's 34-31 win as 1.5-point chalk against Florida Atlantic was the Bulls' first turn laying points in an FBS game since 2015 and their first cover when favored in six tries.
Florida International Golden Panthers (-12.5) vs. Charlotte 49ers
FIU also rode an 0-5 ATS streak when favored into last week (a 13-7 win over Rice). The Panthers haven't had a winning season since 2011 and haven't handed out double digits since 2015.
Louisiana Monroe Warhawks (-11) vs. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
The Warhawks have won just six games the past two years and have covered just one of their last five as chalk.
Army Black Knights (-24) vs. UTEP Miners
Army is a notoriously bad favorite, the poster boy for the concept. This is the most weight the Knights have laid against an FBS opponent since at least the early 1970s.
