Best bets for Chicago-Green Bay
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
9/28/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele and Warren Sharp) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Sunday night's tilt between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday afternoon.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Spread: Green Bay -7
Total: 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 74 percent on Green Bay
Steele: The Packers were down 21-7 to Cincinnati at home and needed a touchdown with 17 seconds left to force overtime last week. Green Bay may also still be down two offensive linemen, as this is a short week. Chicago had the chance to be 2-1 this year, as the Bears upset Pittsburgh at home and were at the Atlanta 5-yard line at the end of the game with four shots at the end zone, eventually losing by six. Green Bay is plus-64 yards per game, but it has allowed 13 sacks and is averaging just 69 yards per game rushing, relying on Aaron Rodgers' arm. Chicago was minus-three in turnovers in its only road trip, a 29-7 loss at Tampa Bay, but Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen have them averaging a hefty 5.0 yards per carry. With the Bears averaging just 16 points per game, my best option is a lean to the under 45.5. ATS pick: lean on the under 45.5
Sharp: Last week, the Steelers left plays on the table against the Bears in the passing game, in large part due to issues that have haunted Ben Roethlisberger this season regarding timing with his receivers. Rodgers doesn't have that problem, and he gets Randall Cobb back this week to round out his complete stable of pass-catchers. The problem won't be Rodgers' ability to hit receivers downfield; it will be having enough time to throw the ball due to multiple missing starters along the Packers' offensive line.
For the Bears to have a shot, they must run the ball successfully to shorten this game. They did so last week against the Steelers (220 yards at 5.8 yards per carry), and the Packers have an even worse run defense, but it would be vastly improved if DT Mike Daniels (listed as questionable) is able to go.
ATS pick: Pass
Parolin's prop bets
Will Aaron Rodgers throw an interception? (Yes EVEN, No -120)
Aaron Rodgers has played 30 games at Lambeau Field over the last five years, including an entire season's worth without Jordy Nelson. He's thrown a total of 10 interceptions in those games, including multiple picks twice -- that leaves a "no" in 22 of his last 30 games at Lambeau Field. He's seen Chicago nine times at Lambeau Field in his career, with four interceptions.
There simply aren't many stats to back a "yes" play. Chicago's defense has produced a total of eight interceptions since the start of last season, the only team in the NFL without at least 11 in that span. This Bears defense is a long way from the turnover machines that defended Soldier Field in the 1980s or early-to-mid 2000s. Chicago is still looking for its first interception of the year and would be a relatively unlikely pick on the road against a league-average quarterback. Rodgers is among the more risk-averse quarterbacks in the history of the NFL, throwing an interception on a staggering 1.6 percent of his career attempts, the best mark in league history. "No" just makes too much sense.
The play: No (-120)
292.5 passing yards by Aaron Rodgers (O/U -110)
Avoiding interceptions is only part of the battle, though. After all, this is a Bears defense that has limited Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston and Roethlisberger to a 238 yards per game average. Chicago has allowed 7.6 yards per attempt this season, 22nd in the league but not far off from the 7.2 league average. Is there a chance they could still limit the Packers' passing game even without forcing the big turnover?
It's not likely. Chicago has seen Ryan and Roethlisberger at Soldier Field, where the Bears are simply a different unit. The one road game Chicago has played was at Tampa Bay, where Winston and his new weapons were playing their season opener in Week 2. Since the start of last season, the Bears have allowed 247 passing yards per road game, compared to 209 in home games. Their road yards per attempt is 7.3 in that span, a figure leaving Rodgers needing to throw 41 passes to hit 293. Rodgers has done that in six of his last nine home games, and given his place on the quarterback hierarchy, he could be expected to beat 7.3 yards per attempt too.
The play: Over
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
9/28/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele and Warren Sharp) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Sunday night's tilt between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday afternoon.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Spread: Green Bay -7
Total: 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 74 percent on Green Bay
Steele: The Packers were down 21-7 to Cincinnati at home and needed a touchdown with 17 seconds left to force overtime last week. Green Bay may also still be down two offensive linemen, as this is a short week. Chicago had the chance to be 2-1 this year, as the Bears upset Pittsburgh at home and were at the Atlanta 5-yard line at the end of the game with four shots at the end zone, eventually losing by six. Green Bay is plus-64 yards per game, but it has allowed 13 sacks and is averaging just 69 yards per game rushing, relying on Aaron Rodgers' arm. Chicago was minus-three in turnovers in its only road trip, a 29-7 loss at Tampa Bay, but Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen have them averaging a hefty 5.0 yards per carry. With the Bears averaging just 16 points per game, my best option is a lean to the under 45.5. ATS pick: lean on the under 45.5
Sharp: Last week, the Steelers left plays on the table against the Bears in the passing game, in large part due to issues that have haunted Ben Roethlisberger this season regarding timing with his receivers. Rodgers doesn't have that problem, and he gets Randall Cobb back this week to round out his complete stable of pass-catchers. The problem won't be Rodgers' ability to hit receivers downfield; it will be having enough time to throw the ball due to multiple missing starters along the Packers' offensive line.
For the Bears to have a shot, they must run the ball successfully to shorten this game. They did so last week against the Steelers (220 yards at 5.8 yards per carry), and the Packers have an even worse run defense, but it would be vastly improved if DT Mike Daniels (listed as questionable) is able to go.
ATS pick: Pass
Parolin's prop bets
Will Aaron Rodgers throw an interception? (Yes EVEN, No -120)
Aaron Rodgers has played 30 games at Lambeau Field over the last five years, including an entire season's worth without Jordy Nelson. He's thrown a total of 10 interceptions in those games, including multiple picks twice -- that leaves a "no" in 22 of his last 30 games at Lambeau Field. He's seen Chicago nine times at Lambeau Field in his career, with four interceptions.
There simply aren't many stats to back a "yes" play. Chicago's defense has produced a total of eight interceptions since the start of last season, the only team in the NFL without at least 11 in that span. This Bears defense is a long way from the turnover machines that defended Soldier Field in the 1980s or early-to-mid 2000s. Chicago is still looking for its first interception of the year and would be a relatively unlikely pick on the road against a league-average quarterback. Rodgers is among the more risk-averse quarterbacks in the history of the NFL, throwing an interception on a staggering 1.6 percent of his career attempts, the best mark in league history. "No" just makes too much sense.
The play: No (-120)
292.5 passing yards by Aaron Rodgers (O/U -110)
Avoiding interceptions is only part of the battle, though. After all, this is a Bears defense that has limited Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston and Roethlisberger to a 238 yards per game average. Chicago has allowed 7.6 yards per attempt this season, 22nd in the league but not far off from the 7.2 league average. Is there a chance they could still limit the Packers' passing game even without forcing the big turnover?
It's not likely. Chicago has seen Ryan and Roethlisberger at Soldier Field, where the Bears are simply a different unit. The one road game Chicago has played was at Tampa Bay, where Winston and his new weapons were playing their season opener in Week 2. Since the start of last season, the Bears have allowed 247 passing yards per road game, compared to 209 in home games. Their road yards per attempt is 7.3 in that span, a figure leaving Rodgers needing to throw 41 passes to hit 293. Rodgers has done that in six of his last nine home games, and given his place on the quarterback hierarchy, he could be expected to beat 7.3 yards per attempt too.
The play: Over
