fading road teams on 2nd game of back to back

Search

New member
Joined
Feb 27, 2009
Messages
593
Tokens
With the fact that it is hard for a nfl team to win back to back road games, I am listing the 2nd game of this scenario as a play only if the team won the first road game.

Week 2
--------

had only 1 play as the eagles won on the road week 1

eagles vs kc -5 was a su and ats winner, fading eagles

week 3
---------

had 2 plays

Miami at ny jets +3 was a su and ats winner,,fading Miami

Houston at patriots -13 was a su winner and ats loser,,fading Houston

current result is su 3-0,,, ats 2-1

week 4
---------
rams at dallas -6,,,, fade the rams
 

Balls Deep
Handicapper
Joined
Sep 26, 2012
Messages
1,492
Tokens
i was just running some numbers on this b2b road game trend. Teams playing 2nd of b2b road games are about 45% ATS historically. So it's not a given by any means.
Check this out though...

teams getting +6 or more (LAR) ... 148-68-6 (68.5%)
teams getting +10 or more ... 164-54-4 (75.2%)

also if the team has more than a week between games (LAR) ... 11-7-0 (61.1%)

Caution with those b2b road plays. I used to assume it was good angle. But seems the books take advantage of that assumption. If you play all b2b road game teams, you'll probably break even in the long run. And if you fade the big dogs, your losing.
 

Balls Deep
Handicapper
Joined
Sep 26, 2012
Messages
1,492
Tokens
last year...
teams playing 2nd of b2b road games...
when they won the 1st game: 17-18-0 (48.6%)
when they lost the 1st game: 17-24-0 (41.5%)

they actually did better when winning the first game.
 

Member
Joined
Sep 11, 2006
Messages
1,675
Tokens
you forgot Cleveland week 3.

Week 2 was Clev at Pitt
Week 3 was Clev at Indy, fading Clev, Indy SU winner
 

Member
Joined
Sep 11, 2006
Messages
1,675
Tokens
Week 3 also, Dallas at Zona which, Dallas won and covered


didn't see your "won first game" scenario

Sorry about that. But yes, its def something I look at every week!
 

New member
Joined
Dec 12, 2015
Messages
411
Tokens
Wouldn't this apply to NO this week? They beat Carolina on the road, now they're in Wembley -2.5
 

Member
Joined
Jan 17, 2012
Messages
2,184
Tokens
Wouldn't this apply to NO this week? They beat Carolina on the road, now they're in Wembley -2.5
Lol what about Miami? 3rd road game playing nola

however trying to find stats, it's skewed cause field is neutral and not enough data when going to a neutral field sans the SB
 

New member
Joined
Dec 12, 2015
Messages
411
Tokens
Lol what about Miami? 3rd road game playing nola

however trying to find stats, it's skewed cause field is neutral and not enough data when going to a neutral field sans the SB

Yeah I know Miami is also on the road - the system was "if a team wins on the road, then they lose the second game on the road" Well the dolphins lost on their last road game to the Jets so I thought it wouldn't really apply to them. But yeah you are correct, this is an outlier for sure cause Dolphins on the road for 3rd consecutive week. That's gotta be rough.
 

Member
Joined
Jan 17, 2012
Messages
2,184
Tokens
I agree. I want to say Dolphins win SU, but is this a situation of packers bears type? I know that was a Div game. But Saints "should be up for it. However they're still inconsistent. Miami? Well who knows?

i know Saints haven't given TOs and got 3 last week vs Car. Could their D finally be gelling enough to continue getting TOs?
 

New member
Joined
Feb 27, 2009
Messages
593
Tokens
i was just running some numbers on this b2b road game trend. Teams playing 2nd of b2b road games are about 45% ATS historically. So it's not a given by any means.
Check this out though...

teams getting +6 or more (LAR) ... 148-68-6 (68.5%)
teams getting +10 or more ... 164-54-4 (75.2%)



also if the team has more than a week between games (LAR) ... 11-7-0 (61.1%)

Caution with those b2b road plays. I used to assume it was good angle. But seems the books take advantage of that assumption. If you play all b2b road game teams, you'll probably break even in the long run. And if you fade the big dogs, your losing.

thanx for running those stats,,,can you run the stats for su instead of ats? I was thinking of teasing down where applicable to where the home team just needs to win
 

Member
Joined
Sep 3, 2006
Messages
859
Tokens
The only team that would qualify for that scenario this week would be the LA Rams at Dallas getting about 6.5 or 7.........they are also 17/7 ATS off a win in October
 

Biz

Member
Handicapper
Joined
Oct 29, 2011
Messages
14,580
Tokens
Where are you guys getting your stats??

Prev Road Win, today Road dog 6+


p:AW and A and line >= 6
SU:48-163-0 (-8.66, 22.7%)Teaser Records
ATS:106-100-5 (-0.40, 51.5%) avg line: 8.3+6: 146-63-2 (69.9%) -6: 54-155-2 (25.8%) +10: 162-48-1 (77.1%) -10: 43-163-5 (20.9%)
O/U:92-117-2 (-1.53, 44.0%) avg total: 42.6+6: 56-155-0 (26.5%) -6: 125-79-7 (61.3%) +10: 36-172-3 (17.3%) -10: 159-51-1 (75.7%)

Prev Road Win, Today 10+ Dog.


p:AW and A and line >= 10
SU:6-37-0 (-10.60, 14.0%)Teaser Records
ATS:25-18-0 (1.27, 58.1%) avg line: 11.9+6: 32-10-1 (76.2%) -6: 11-32-0 (25.6%) +10: 36-7-0 (83.7%) -10: 8-34-1 (19.0%)
O/U:20-23-0 (-1.72, 46.5%) avg total: 43.6+6: 11-32-0 (25.6%) -6: 25-16-2 (61.0%) +10: 8-35-0 (18.6%) -10: 31-12-0 (72.1%)

Last year, Prev Road Loss today Road game

p:AL and A and season = 2016
SU:14-25-0 (-5.77, 35.9%)Teaser Records
ATS:18-21-0 (-1.90, 46.2%) avg line: 3.9+6: 25-12-2 (67.6%) -6: 9-29-1 (23.7%) +10: 29-8-2 (78.4%) -10: 7-32-0 (17.9%)
O/U:21-18-0 (-0.19, 53.8%) avg total: 45.5+6: 8-31-0 (20.5%) -6: 26-13-0 (66.7%) +10: 6-33-0 (15.4%) -10: 30-6-3 (83.3%)


Same as above but previous road win.

p:AW and A and season = 2016
SU:17-16-0 (-0.88, 51.5%)Teaser Records
ATS:17-16-0 (0.24, 51.5%) avg line: 1.1+6: 25-8-0 (75.8%) -6: 10-23-0 (30.3%) +10: 27-6-0 (81.8%) -10: 8-25-0 (24.2%)
O/U:18-15-0 (-0.64, 54.5%) avg total: 46.7+6: 9-24-0 (27.3%) -6: 20-13-0 (60.6%) +10: 5-28-0 (15.2%) -10: 25-8-0 (75.8%)
 

Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
Messages
3,961
Tokens
Miami should get the shit beat out of them on pure travel alone...chased out of Miami by a hurricane in week 1, then up to New Jersey to smell the "fresh air", next across the country to California for more "fresh air" only to have to go pond jumping to England...all in a 3 week stretch.
That's a lot of travel...if you think smokin' jay cutler usually looks a little tired, this game should put him to sleep.
 

New member
Joined
Dec 12, 2015
Messages
411
Tokens
Miami should get the shit beat out of them on pure travel alone...chased out of Miami by a hurricane in week 1, then up to New Jersey to smell the "fresh air", next across the country to California for more "fresh air" only to have to go pond jumping to England...all in a 3 week stretch.
That's a lot of travel...if you think smokin' jay cutler usually looks a little tired, this game should put him to sleep.

My thoughts exactly. Let's go Saints! Lol
 

sdf

Member
Joined
Oct 1, 2005
Messages
14,300
Tokens
Where are you guys getting your stats??


Thank You!

there is a lot of misinformation in this thread. hopefully people will do more than look at 3 weeks of data and try to extrapolate a "system"

b2b road games, winning the first is statistically insignificant for the 2nd game.

now...what happens when a thursday team plays a monday team.....that becomes more interesting from a total standpoint (over)

if you dont like the Rams...then perhaps them being in a division sandwich is a good reason to fade them today.
 

Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
1,082
Tokens
Thank You!

there is a lot of misinformation in this thread. hopefully people will do more than look at 3 weeks of data and try to extrapolate a "system"

b2b road games, winning the first is statistically insignificant for the 2nd game.

now...what happens when a thursday team plays a monday team.....that becomes more interesting from a total standpoint (over)

if you dont like the Rams...then perhaps them being in a division sandwich is a good reason to fade them today.

Sdf...so your sayin the OVER is a Big play? Hope so sdf....Thanks my brother!
 

New member
Joined
Feb 27, 2009
Messages
593
Tokens
thanx biz

48-163 su at the -6 ml mark should put 48 losses around the -250 to -280 point and looks somewhat profitable over a lot of years

ats looks like it will turn out 50/50

if anything,,at the -6,,-6.5 mark,,these games look good for 1 leg of a 2 team teaser,,,with the 2nd leg being of someones choice or potentially another qualifying game on the same week

Also,,the long term stats that have been appreciatedly given by biz and slurvball are using the 6 and 10 spreads specifically,,,maybe the lower spreads have better success
 

sdf

Member
Joined
Oct 1, 2005
Messages
14,300
Tokens
Sdf...so your sayin the OVER is a Big play? Hope so sdf....Thanks my brother!

yeah it's a rare situation and i see someone else posted the same thing in the service forum.
teams that played on previous thursday vs a team that played on previous monday is a good over situation

happens twice this weekend
 

Biz

Member
Handicapper
Joined
Oct 29, 2011
Messages
14,580
Tokens
Never lost a 10 pt teaser. 24-5 OVER

LAR/Dallas and SF/Arizona qualify today. One more this year is Det/Balt December 3.

p:day = Monday and op:day = Thursday
SU:13-18-0 (-2.29, 41.9%)Teaser Records
ATS:13-18-0 (-2.39, 41.9%) avg line: -0.1+6: 16-13-2 (55.2%)-6: 8-23-0 (25.8%)+10: 22-8-1 (73.3%)-10: 5-25-1 (16.7%)
O/U:24-5-2 (8.47, 82.8%) avg total: 44.3+6: 15-14-2 (51.7%)-6: 29-2-0 (93.5%)+10: 12-18-1 (40.0%)-10: 31-0-0 (100.0%)
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,901
Messages
13,439,380
Members
99,343
Latest member
manojkumarone17
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com