How to bet Indianapolis-Seattle
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
10/1/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Sunday night's tilt between the Indianapolis Colts and Seattle Seahawks. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bet.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday afternoon.
Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (-13)
Total: 41.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent on Seattle
Phil Steele
The Seahawks endured a tough road loss to the Tennessee Titans last weekend in the heat and humidity of Nashville. Meanwhile, the Colts (1-2) earned their first victory of the year last week as a home underdog against the Cleveland Browns. With Seattle sitting at 1-2 on the young season and returning home to the "12th Man," I'll give them a lean as Indy quarterback Jacoby Brissett makes his first career road start.
ATS pick: Lean Seattle
Erin Rynning
The Seahawks are arguably the most disappointing team in the NFL given their 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS start to the 2017 season. Many pundits predicted the Seahawks to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, but the talent has failed to live up to expectations so far this season. That makes this game a tricky handicap, as the Seahawks currently lay over the Colts on talent, but their underperforming ways make laying double digits an easy pass.
Pick: Pass
Warren Sharp
As expected, Brissett impressed last week once he had more time to work with his receivers vs. the Browns' defense. It will be much harder for him against the Seahawks' defense in Seattle. The Colts' defense is slated to welcome cornerback Vontae Davis for his season debut and thus should look better than it did earlier this season, but there is no doubt the Colts' defense can be exploited by a balanced Seattle offense. The Seattle offense's biggest problem is offensive line protection, yet it faces the 27th-rated pass-rush defense of Indianapolis. If the Seahawks can perform in the red zone against the Colts' 26th-ranked red zone defense, it will be nearly impossible for the Colts' offense to match up against the Seahawks' No. 1 red zone defense.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay
ATS pick: Indianapolis
Prediction: Seattle 26, Indianapolis 15
Parolin's prop bet
20.5 completions by Jacoby Brissett (O/U --110)
It is good news, bad news time for Brissett. He'll make the first road start of his NFL career Sunday, which seems like a happy occasion, but it's a drawback because the game takes place at Seattle. The Seahawks are a dominant unit at CenturyLink Field, allowing only 37 touchdowns and recording 50 interceptions there since 2012, the best TD-INT ratio of any team at home in that span. No team has allowed fewer passing yards at home than the Seahawks in that span (195 per game), and they're right on the total with 20.4 completions allowed per game. Is Brissett even a league-average quarterback? Of course not. As of game day, he will have been a Colt for less than a month. So could Indy coach Chuck Pagano's game plan include a healthy dose of short, high-percentage throws designed to put his inexperienced quarterback in a good rhythm? Yes, but that 20.4 completions number bakes a heavy dose of those throws into the average already. Since 2012, the Seahawks have allowed 10.1 completions per game to running backs and tight ends at home, tied for ninth-most in the league. Plus, high percentage doesn't equal guaranteed completion. The Seahawks at home have allowed a 68.7 percent completion percentage on throws 5 yards downfield or shorter since 2012, seventh-best in the league. For context, nine teams are allowing at least a 68.7 completion percentage this season on all throws. So 20.5 is a low number, but CenturyLink Field is a tough spot for any quarterback, never mind an inexperienced one.
Pick: Under
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
10/1/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Sunday night's tilt between the Indianapolis Colts and Seattle Seahawks. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bet.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday afternoon.
Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (-13)
Total: 41.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent on Seattle
Phil Steele
The Seahawks endured a tough road loss to the Tennessee Titans last weekend in the heat and humidity of Nashville. Meanwhile, the Colts (1-2) earned their first victory of the year last week as a home underdog against the Cleveland Browns. With Seattle sitting at 1-2 on the young season and returning home to the "12th Man," I'll give them a lean as Indy quarterback Jacoby Brissett makes his first career road start.
ATS pick: Lean Seattle
Erin Rynning
The Seahawks are arguably the most disappointing team in the NFL given their 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS start to the 2017 season. Many pundits predicted the Seahawks to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, but the talent has failed to live up to expectations so far this season. That makes this game a tricky handicap, as the Seahawks currently lay over the Colts on talent, but their underperforming ways make laying double digits an easy pass.
Pick: Pass
Warren Sharp
As expected, Brissett impressed last week once he had more time to work with his receivers vs. the Browns' defense. It will be much harder for him against the Seahawks' defense in Seattle. The Colts' defense is slated to welcome cornerback Vontae Davis for his season debut and thus should look better than it did earlier this season, but there is no doubt the Colts' defense can be exploited by a balanced Seattle offense. The Seattle offense's biggest problem is offensive line protection, yet it faces the 27th-rated pass-rush defense of Indianapolis. If the Seahawks can perform in the red zone against the Colts' 26th-ranked red zone defense, it will be nearly impossible for the Colts' offense to match up against the Seahawks' No. 1 red zone defense.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay
ATS pick: Indianapolis
Prediction: Seattle 26, Indianapolis 15
Parolin's prop bet
20.5 completions by Jacoby Brissett (O/U --110)
It is good news, bad news time for Brissett. He'll make the first road start of his NFL career Sunday, which seems like a happy occasion, but it's a drawback because the game takes place at Seattle. The Seahawks are a dominant unit at CenturyLink Field, allowing only 37 touchdowns and recording 50 interceptions there since 2012, the best TD-INT ratio of any team at home in that span. No team has allowed fewer passing yards at home than the Seahawks in that span (195 per game), and they're right on the total with 20.4 completions allowed per game. Is Brissett even a league-average quarterback? Of course not. As of game day, he will have been a Colt for less than a month. So could Indy coach Chuck Pagano's game plan include a healthy dose of short, high-percentage throws designed to put his inexperienced quarterback in a good rhythm? Yes, but that 20.4 completions number bakes a heavy dose of those throws into the average already. Since 2012, the Seahawks have allowed 10.1 completions per game to running backs and tight ends at home, tied for ninth-most in the league. Plus, high percentage doesn't equal guaranteed completion. The Seahawks at home have allowed a 68.7 percent completion percentage on throws 5 yards downfield or shorter since 2012, seventh-best in the league. For context, nine teams are allowing at least a 68.7 completion percentage this season on all throws. So 20.5 is a low number, but CenturyLink Field is a tough spot for any quarterback, never mind an inexperienced one.
Pick: Under
