How To bet Washington-Kansas City
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
10/2/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Monday night's tilt between the Washington Redskins and the Kansas City Chiefs. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday afternoon.
Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs
Total: 49
PickCenter public consensus pick: 67 percent on Kansas City
Phil Steele
The Chiefs are considered one of the top teams in the NFL so far in 2017, and deservedly so, as they sit at 3-0 after a solid road victory over the Chargers a week ago. Meanwhile, the Redskins were able to put together a strong outing last week at home against the Raiders in a game in which they surrendered just 128 yards of offense. While Washington has strung together a pair of consecutive wins coming in, I'll give the lean to the Chiefs in this one, as they've covered eight of their last nine overall.
ATS pick: Lean Kansas City
Erin Rynning
Give credit to the Redskins for their strong start, including their domination of the Raiders last week, outgaining them by 344 yards. No question, there has been a clear talent infusion for Washington over the last few seasons. The offense looked to be above average again in 2017, but the Redskins have surprised by running the football and even more so on the defensive side of the ball. Even with that in mind, the touchdown spread means this is a clear "pass."
Pick: Pass
Warren Sharp
I don't believe either of these teams are as good as they've looked to start the season. Currently the Redskins rank as the top defense in Early Down Success Rate and third-best in defensive efficiency. The defenses faced by the Chiefs have gotten progressively better, from the NFL's worst defense (New England) to the Chargers last week (14th), and they take a big step up to face the Redskins this week.
The key for the Redskins to keep this game close is their pass rush, which absolutely must arrive against the 31st-rated pass-protecting line (which is without starting center Mitch Morse and may be without starting tackle Eric Fisher). On the other side of the ball, the Redskins' offense will have to do better in pass protection in what should be an extremely loud Arrowhead-in-prime-time crowd.
This spread will come down to whichever team makes the least mistakes, but I think it's tight.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay
ATS pick: Washington and the under
Prediction: Kansas City 24, Washington 20
Parolin's prop bets
85.5 rushing yards by Kareem Hunt (O/U -110)
Forget Offensive Rookie of the Year -- Kareem Hunt is aiming higher. The Chiefs running back and fantasy football darling has 538 scrimmage yards, more than every player's first three career games outside of Billy Sims. Hunt's simply been on fire. He's averaged 11.6 yards per rush outside the tackles and an absurd 7.9 yards per rush inside the tackles. He's a big play waiting to happen, with 12 rushes of 10-plus yards (including at least one outside the right and left tackle, towards the right and left guard and up the middle), as well as five rushes of at least 20 yards (both lead the NFL). Why is all of this important? There isn't a particular gap or lineman he needs to run toward to be effective, making it very difficult for the Redskins to stop him. Washington's rush defense has been solid this year, averaging 3.2 yards per rush (seventh in the league), including the third-ranked unit in yards before contact per rush. But they're still returning four of seven starters from a rush defense that ranked 27th in yards per rush last year. Todd Gurley showed that this front was exploitable, with 88 yards on 16 rushes. LeGarrette Blount (14 rushes for 46 yards) isn't half the running back that Hunt is, and Marshawn Lynch received a total of six rushes in a game in which his team trailed 14-0 at halftime and 21-0 in the third quarter, forcing a pass-heavy game plan. The Chiefs won't be shy about running the ball.
The play: Over
242.5 passing yards by Alex Smith (O/U -110)
Alex Smith has been exactly what the Chiefs have needed. He's thrown seven touchdown passes without an interception, completed an NFL-best 77 percent of his passes and averaged 9.2 yards per attempt (thanks, Hunt and Tyreek Hill). Smith went into Foxborough and carved up the Patriots in Week 1, throwing for 368 yards and four touchdowns on national television. But has Smith really been that different outside of that game, one against a defense that might be far worse than anticipated? Since that game, he has completed just over three-quarters of his passes for 203 yards per game with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. From 2013-16 with Andy Reid, he's completed 65 percent of his passes for 222 yards per game and a TD-INT ratio of 2.7. Need more proof? Check the deep passing. He's 6-of-12 on throws at least 15 yards downfield over three games (2.0 completions per game). The rest of his career? He has 2.1 completions per game with a 45 percent completion percentage on those throws. He's been basically the same Alex Smith as he was over the rest of his career with Andy Reid, and Smith has thrown for less than 243 yards in 37 of 64 career games with Reid. Given Washington's 210 pass yards per game average (and holding Derek Carr to 118 yards last week), the under seems slightly more likely.
The play: Under
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
10/2/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Monday night's tilt between the Washington Redskins and the Kansas City Chiefs. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday afternoon.
Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs
Total: 49
PickCenter public consensus pick: 67 percent on Kansas City
Phil Steele
The Chiefs are considered one of the top teams in the NFL so far in 2017, and deservedly so, as they sit at 3-0 after a solid road victory over the Chargers a week ago. Meanwhile, the Redskins were able to put together a strong outing last week at home against the Raiders in a game in which they surrendered just 128 yards of offense. While Washington has strung together a pair of consecutive wins coming in, I'll give the lean to the Chiefs in this one, as they've covered eight of their last nine overall.
ATS pick: Lean Kansas City
Erin Rynning
Give credit to the Redskins for their strong start, including their domination of the Raiders last week, outgaining them by 344 yards. No question, there has been a clear talent infusion for Washington over the last few seasons. The offense looked to be above average again in 2017, but the Redskins have surprised by running the football and even more so on the defensive side of the ball. Even with that in mind, the touchdown spread means this is a clear "pass."
Pick: Pass
Warren Sharp
I don't believe either of these teams are as good as they've looked to start the season. Currently the Redskins rank as the top defense in Early Down Success Rate and third-best in defensive efficiency. The defenses faced by the Chiefs have gotten progressively better, from the NFL's worst defense (New England) to the Chargers last week (14th), and they take a big step up to face the Redskins this week.
The key for the Redskins to keep this game close is their pass rush, which absolutely must arrive against the 31st-rated pass-protecting line (which is without starting center Mitch Morse and may be without starting tackle Eric Fisher). On the other side of the ball, the Redskins' offense will have to do better in pass protection in what should be an extremely loud Arrowhead-in-prime-time crowd.
This spread will come down to whichever team makes the least mistakes, but I think it's tight.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay
ATS pick: Washington and the under
Prediction: Kansas City 24, Washington 20
Parolin's prop bets
85.5 rushing yards by Kareem Hunt (O/U -110)
Forget Offensive Rookie of the Year -- Kareem Hunt is aiming higher. The Chiefs running back and fantasy football darling has 538 scrimmage yards, more than every player's first three career games outside of Billy Sims. Hunt's simply been on fire. He's averaged 11.6 yards per rush outside the tackles and an absurd 7.9 yards per rush inside the tackles. He's a big play waiting to happen, with 12 rushes of 10-plus yards (including at least one outside the right and left tackle, towards the right and left guard and up the middle), as well as five rushes of at least 20 yards (both lead the NFL). Why is all of this important? There isn't a particular gap or lineman he needs to run toward to be effective, making it very difficult for the Redskins to stop him. Washington's rush defense has been solid this year, averaging 3.2 yards per rush (seventh in the league), including the third-ranked unit in yards before contact per rush. But they're still returning four of seven starters from a rush defense that ranked 27th in yards per rush last year. Todd Gurley showed that this front was exploitable, with 88 yards on 16 rushes. LeGarrette Blount (14 rushes for 46 yards) isn't half the running back that Hunt is, and Marshawn Lynch received a total of six rushes in a game in which his team trailed 14-0 at halftime and 21-0 in the third quarter, forcing a pass-heavy game plan. The Chiefs won't be shy about running the ball.
The play: Over
242.5 passing yards by Alex Smith (O/U -110)
Alex Smith has been exactly what the Chiefs have needed. He's thrown seven touchdown passes without an interception, completed an NFL-best 77 percent of his passes and averaged 9.2 yards per attempt (thanks, Hunt and Tyreek Hill). Smith went into Foxborough and carved up the Patriots in Week 1, throwing for 368 yards and four touchdowns on national television. But has Smith really been that different outside of that game, one against a defense that might be far worse than anticipated? Since that game, he has completed just over three-quarters of his passes for 203 yards per game with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. From 2013-16 with Andy Reid, he's completed 65 percent of his passes for 222 yards per game and a TD-INT ratio of 2.7. Need more proof? Check the deep passing. He's 6-of-12 on throws at least 15 yards downfield over three games (2.0 completions per game). The rest of his career? He has 2.1 completions per game with a 45 percent completion percentage on those throws. He's been basically the same Alex Smith as he was over the rest of his career with Andy Reid, and Smith has thrown for less than 243 yards in 37 of 64 career games with Reid. Given Washington's 210 pass yards per game average (and holding Derek Carr to 118 yards last week), the under seems slightly more likely.
The play: Under
