CFB betting look for Week 6: Cornhuskers can still be a factor
Will Harris
ESPN INSIDER
10/2/17
Our college football look-ahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season. Join us in Week 6 for an optimistic view of the struggling program you shouldn't give up on yet, a different way to look at revenge and some ATS thoughts on the two big Pac-12 games this week.
Portfolio checkup
Which teams we're buying and selling and why.
Buy
Nebraska Cornhuskers
The fallout from an ugly home loss to Northern Illinois included a change of athletic director. It also has third-year coach Mike Riley feeling the heat despite being just a few games into a program reset centered around new defensive coordinator Bob Diaco and transfer quarterback Tanner Lee. Diaco's unit has shown progress despite losing its best player, cornerback Chris Jones, to a knee injury in the summer.
The offense has been the problem. Lee has struggled, the loss of bruiser Tre Bryant stalled the running game, and Riley has acknowledged issues within the offensive staff. However, this bunch has had good chemistry all along, is rediscovering its running game and is becoming more efficient with each game.
The popular narrative is that the Mike Riley era is already a failure and that this is a lame-duck staff. Here's a more likely alternative: The Huskers close the season strong, win a bowl game, Riley is retained, then in 2018 the Blackshirts really shine in the second year of Diaco's scheme, Lee stars as a senior thanks to Riley's well-documented prowess with second-year quarterback pupils, and Nebraska posts its best season since Frank Solich left town. The new AD may see it differently, but there are lots of positives here. We're not ready to give up on this outfit.
Sell
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Minnesota started the season 3-0, but the Gophers are now a long shot to make a sixth straight postseason appearance. The roster that P.J. Fleck inherited is just not equipped for life in the Big Ten. There was natural attrition as a result of the regime change, and while the players have largely responded to Fleck and embraced the new culture, there's not enough talent or depth on hand.
The lineup is full of underclassmen, injuries are mounting and more redshirts were pulled in Saturday's loss to Maryland. Minnesota's extreme youth will continue to wear down as it navigates the rugged conference season. The secondary is the greenest and thinnest unit, which could make a Purdue team that's the only pass-first attack left on the Gophers' schedule a good place to start fading this bunch. Don't be deceived by either the defense's solid pass defense numbers or the shutdown performance versus pass-happy Middle Tennessee, which was missing its record-setting quarterback and All-America wideout.
Slate standout
A game we'll be studying closely this week and what we're looking for.
Stanford Cardinal (-6.5) at Utah Utes
Utah's Kyle Whittingham is 2-0 versus Stanford's David Shaw, yet the Utes are now getting points for the third time in this head-to-head matchup.
Utah was our preseason pick to win the Pac-12 South, and we're sticking with Whittingham & Co. despite the loss of dynamic starting quarterback Tyler Huntley. The sophomore was the surprise starter, beating out incumbent and captain Troy Williams in camp. Since losing the job, Williams has been a model of leadership, work ethic and preparation, and consequently this team is poised to continue its offensive surge behind a backup it believes in. Improvement in the passing game was a chief program emphasis this offseason, seen by the staff as the final missing piece for a team already playing championship defense and special teams. New offensive coordinator Troy Taylor and Oregon transfer wideout Darren Carrington are the key parts.
The Cardinal has its own quarterback issues, with struggling starter Keller Chryst held out with a concussion last week, opening the door for freshman K.J. Costello, for whom the fan base was already clamoring. Bryce Love has already rushed for a thousand yards, but the Utes have been exceptional at denying long rushing plays. "Sweet Feet" has been the force on offense thus far, though all three of Stanford's wins have been against poor defensive teams. The Utah defense and "the MUSS" (the Utes' student section) in "Sack" Lake City will be a tougher test, for both Love and whoever's under center. But Stanford's outstanding secondary will certainly make things difficult for the Utes' new passing attack as well.
So, can the Utes get past Stanford for a third straight time? The two previous meetings have gone under totals of 52 and 41 and the defenses again appear to have the advantages. The points loom large in a low-scoring game, plus Whittingham has excelled both straight-up and ATS at home, as a dog and with extra prep time. This price has risen to 6.5 market-wide, after opening at around a field goal, but the Utes have some edges here and we expect it to drop.
Handicapper's toolbox
A different concept every Monday, and how to apply it on Saturday.
Everybody knows the concept of 'revenge,' but just one side of the ball out for redemption can be very powerful, too.
Clemson defenders talked openly of their feeling that they let Virginia Tech back in the game in last year's ACC championship bout, and also of the desire of the Tigers defense to shut the Hokies down in this year's meeting. Brent Venables' crew walked the walk, holding the Hokies well under their team total while the Tigers (and the under) delivered the money 31-17.
The Florida Atlantic defense, meanwhile, has been emphasizing redemption for the final game of 2016, in which Middle Tennessee put up 77 points. Saturday, the Owls cashed along with the under in a 38-20 win over the Blue Raiders.
These important pieces of history could help you in this week's Pitt-Syracuse battle.
The season finale for Syracuse last year was a wild 76-61 loss to Pittsburgh, in which the Panthers racked up 38 first downs and 668 yards. This year's Orange defense is much improved -- an older, deeper, saltier outfit that you can be sure hasn't forgotten how 2016 ended. Pittsburgh is no longer the same offense, missing its quarterback, star tailback and play-caller from that game. The 2017 Pitt edition ranks 95th or worse in categories including total offense, scoring offense, yards per play, rushing yards and sacks allowed. We're not counting on this bunch to suddenly spring to life in the Carrier Dome (where Pitt has averaged just 17 points its past three trips) against a defense that's definitely improving and might just be angry.
Chalk Bits
Washington State coach Mike Leach has owned Oregon with five covers in five tries, but until now hasn't faced the Oregon Ducks as a favorite. Oregon backers shouldn't count on the passing game to deliver without injured quarterback Justin Herbert, but it may not need to, as the Ducks lead the nation in rushing touchdowns and could make hay on the ground this week if the Washington State defense is out of gas in an obvious letdown spot. Also, a new staff at Oregon means a different and unfamiliar offense for the Cougars to study this week, a difficult preparation at a time when the lingering effects of a historic win are already threatening the focus. Be sure to check the status of Oregon running back Royce Freeman, who like Herbert, left last week's game with an injury.
The more you've invested, the more it hurts when you lose. Memphis had already flown to Orlando once, only to turn around and fly back when Hurricane Irma caused postponement of the clash with UCF. The Tigers spent two full weeks prepping for this game, and both sides were really pointing to it as a key American Athletic Conference measuring-stick matchup between quality teams from opposing divisions. It was no fun for the Tigers to learn how severely outclassed they were in a 40-13 loss, and the upcoming assignment as double-digit road chalk in far-flung Connecticut on a short week against an unfamiliar and uninspiring opponent is a tough one.
UCF and Utah are the two remaining teams unbeaten both straight up and against the number. Only Bowling Green is still winless both on the field and at the window.
Army unsurprisingly failed to cover while giving UTEP the most points the program had laid in at least four decades, and now the Knights are double-digit road favorites at an FBS opponent (Rice) for just the second time in the past 20 years. Army covered as chalk at UTEP last year. Amazingly, that was the program's only cover and second straight-up win in its past 15 turns as a road favorite of any price.
Double-digit favorites are just 3-8 ATS in the Navy-Air Force series in the past quarter-century. This Saturday's contest in Colorado Springs opened at Navy -12, and it has already been bet down to as low as 7.5 at some major offshore shops.
Will Harris
ESPN INSIDER
10/2/17
Our college football look-ahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season. Join us in Week 6 for an optimistic view of the struggling program you shouldn't give up on yet, a different way to look at revenge and some ATS thoughts on the two big Pac-12 games this week.
Portfolio checkup
Which teams we're buying and selling and why.
Buy
Nebraska Cornhuskers
The fallout from an ugly home loss to Northern Illinois included a change of athletic director. It also has third-year coach Mike Riley feeling the heat despite being just a few games into a program reset centered around new defensive coordinator Bob Diaco and transfer quarterback Tanner Lee. Diaco's unit has shown progress despite losing its best player, cornerback Chris Jones, to a knee injury in the summer.
The offense has been the problem. Lee has struggled, the loss of bruiser Tre Bryant stalled the running game, and Riley has acknowledged issues within the offensive staff. However, this bunch has had good chemistry all along, is rediscovering its running game and is becoming more efficient with each game.
The popular narrative is that the Mike Riley era is already a failure and that this is a lame-duck staff. Here's a more likely alternative: The Huskers close the season strong, win a bowl game, Riley is retained, then in 2018 the Blackshirts really shine in the second year of Diaco's scheme, Lee stars as a senior thanks to Riley's well-documented prowess with second-year quarterback pupils, and Nebraska posts its best season since Frank Solich left town. The new AD may see it differently, but there are lots of positives here. We're not ready to give up on this outfit.
Sell
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Minnesota started the season 3-0, but the Gophers are now a long shot to make a sixth straight postseason appearance. The roster that P.J. Fleck inherited is just not equipped for life in the Big Ten. There was natural attrition as a result of the regime change, and while the players have largely responded to Fleck and embraced the new culture, there's not enough talent or depth on hand.
The lineup is full of underclassmen, injuries are mounting and more redshirts were pulled in Saturday's loss to Maryland. Minnesota's extreme youth will continue to wear down as it navigates the rugged conference season. The secondary is the greenest and thinnest unit, which could make a Purdue team that's the only pass-first attack left on the Gophers' schedule a good place to start fading this bunch. Don't be deceived by either the defense's solid pass defense numbers or the shutdown performance versus pass-happy Middle Tennessee, which was missing its record-setting quarterback and All-America wideout.
Slate standout
A game we'll be studying closely this week and what we're looking for.
Stanford Cardinal (-6.5) at Utah Utes
Utah's Kyle Whittingham is 2-0 versus Stanford's David Shaw, yet the Utes are now getting points for the third time in this head-to-head matchup.
Utah was our preseason pick to win the Pac-12 South, and we're sticking with Whittingham & Co. despite the loss of dynamic starting quarterback Tyler Huntley. The sophomore was the surprise starter, beating out incumbent and captain Troy Williams in camp. Since losing the job, Williams has been a model of leadership, work ethic and preparation, and consequently this team is poised to continue its offensive surge behind a backup it believes in. Improvement in the passing game was a chief program emphasis this offseason, seen by the staff as the final missing piece for a team already playing championship defense and special teams. New offensive coordinator Troy Taylor and Oregon transfer wideout Darren Carrington are the key parts.
The Cardinal has its own quarterback issues, with struggling starter Keller Chryst held out with a concussion last week, opening the door for freshman K.J. Costello, for whom the fan base was already clamoring. Bryce Love has already rushed for a thousand yards, but the Utes have been exceptional at denying long rushing plays. "Sweet Feet" has been the force on offense thus far, though all three of Stanford's wins have been against poor defensive teams. The Utah defense and "the MUSS" (the Utes' student section) in "Sack" Lake City will be a tougher test, for both Love and whoever's under center. But Stanford's outstanding secondary will certainly make things difficult for the Utes' new passing attack as well.
So, can the Utes get past Stanford for a third straight time? The two previous meetings have gone under totals of 52 and 41 and the defenses again appear to have the advantages. The points loom large in a low-scoring game, plus Whittingham has excelled both straight-up and ATS at home, as a dog and with extra prep time. This price has risen to 6.5 market-wide, after opening at around a field goal, but the Utes have some edges here and we expect it to drop.
Handicapper's toolbox
A different concept every Monday, and how to apply it on Saturday.
Everybody knows the concept of 'revenge,' but just one side of the ball out for redemption can be very powerful, too.
Clemson defenders talked openly of their feeling that they let Virginia Tech back in the game in last year's ACC championship bout, and also of the desire of the Tigers defense to shut the Hokies down in this year's meeting. Brent Venables' crew walked the walk, holding the Hokies well under their team total while the Tigers (and the under) delivered the money 31-17.
The Florida Atlantic defense, meanwhile, has been emphasizing redemption for the final game of 2016, in which Middle Tennessee put up 77 points. Saturday, the Owls cashed along with the under in a 38-20 win over the Blue Raiders.
These important pieces of history could help you in this week's Pitt-Syracuse battle.
The season finale for Syracuse last year was a wild 76-61 loss to Pittsburgh, in which the Panthers racked up 38 first downs and 668 yards. This year's Orange defense is much improved -- an older, deeper, saltier outfit that you can be sure hasn't forgotten how 2016 ended. Pittsburgh is no longer the same offense, missing its quarterback, star tailback and play-caller from that game. The 2017 Pitt edition ranks 95th or worse in categories including total offense, scoring offense, yards per play, rushing yards and sacks allowed. We're not counting on this bunch to suddenly spring to life in the Carrier Dome (where Pitt has averaged just 17 points its past three trips) against a defense that's definitely improving and might just be angry.
Chalk Bits
Washington State coach Mike Leach has owned Oregon with five covers in five tries, but until now hasn't faced the Oregon Ducks as a favorite. Oregon backers shouldn't count on the passing game to deliver without injured quarterback Justin Herbert, but it may not need to, as the Ducks lead the nation in rushing touchdowns and could make hay on the ground this week if the Washington State defense is out of gas in an obvious letdown spot. Also, a new staff at Oregon means a different and unfamiliar offense for the Cougars to study this week, a difficult preparation at a time when the lingering effects of a historic win are already threatening the focus. Be sure to check the status of Oregon running back Royce Freeman, who like Herbert, left last week's game with an injury.
The more you've invested, the more it hurts when you lose. Memphis had already flown to Orlando once, only to turn around and fly back when Hurricane Irma caused postponement of the clash with UCF. The Tigers spent two full weeks prepping for this game, and both sides were really pointing to it as a key American Athletic Conference measuring-stick matchup between quality teams from opposing divisions. It was no fun for the Tigers to learn how severely outclassed they were in a 40-13 loss, and the upcoming assignment as double-digit road chalk in far-flung Connecticut on a short week against an unfamiliar and uninspiring opponent is a tough one.
UCF and Utah are the two remaining teams unbeaten both straight up and against the number. Only Bowling Green is still winless both on the field and at the window.
Army unsurprisingly failed to cover while giving UTEP the most points the program had laid in at least four decades, and now the Knights are double-digit road favorites at an FBS opponent (Rice) for just the second time in the past 20 years. Army covered as chalk at UTEP last year. Amazingly, that was the program's only cover and second straight-up win in its past 15 turns as a road favorite of any price.
Double-digit favorites are just 3-8 ATS in the Navy-Air Force series in the past quarter-century. This Saturday's contest in Colorado Springs opened at Navy -12, and it has already been bet down to as low as 7.5 at some major offshore shops.
