Weekend's worst bad beats
Rob Nelson
10/2/17
There have been no bad beats to speak of thus far in NFL Week 4, but the world of college football did not get so lucky over the weekend.
Rob Nelson of ESPN Stats & Information revisits the worst bad beats from the weekend's gambling action.
Note: Lines are courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
Saturday
Vanderbilt Commodores at Florida Gators
Line: Florida -8.5
Vanderbilt never trailed by more than seven in the first three quarters, which was good news, at the time, for those who bet the underdog.
Just 42 seconds into the fourth quarter, Florida's Lamical Perine gave the Gators a 31-17 lead and now bettors on Vanderbilt were losing their bet for the first time all game. The Commodores later responded with a touchdown drive of their own, cutting the Gators' lead to seven with 3:14 left. At that point, nearly all of the possible outcomes pointed to Vanderbilt covering. But in a play that some folks won't want to be reminded of, Florida's Malik Davis broke through for a 39-yard touchdown on fourth down with 1:42 left. The worst part for Vanderbilt bettors was that the Commodores were out of timeouts, so if Davis didn't score, Florida would have likely kneeled and ended the game as seven-point winners.
Final score: Florida 38, Vanderbilt 24 (Florida covers)
Connecticut Huskies at SMU Mustangs
Line: SMU -16.5
Over the past five seasons, UConn has been the worst ATS team in college football, having covered in less than 27 percent of its games. On Saturday against SMU, however, it looked like the Huskies would easily cover as 16.5-point underdogs.
Nine seconds into the fourth quarter, Connecticut tied the game at 28-28, with an outright win looking like a real possibility. But it all went downhill from there for both the Huskies and those who bet them. SMU would end the game on a 21-0 run with three touchdowns in a 7:22 span, thanks to some costly mistakes by Connecticut. The Huskies had a punt blocked, turned it over on downs deep in their own territory and fumbled a kick return, all contributing to the worst bad beat of the weekend.
Final score: SMU 49, Connecticut 28 (SMU covers)
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Louisiana Monroe Warhawks
Line: Louisiana Monroe -7.5
This bad beat is all about what happened on the game's final play.
Coastal Carolina trailed 45-43 from its own 33-yard line in the final seconds and needed to pull out all the stops to try and win it. Those who bet the Chanticleers were just hoping to avoid the worst-case scenario. Unfortunately for those folks, the worst-case scenario happened. Coastal Carolina tried to play the lateral game in an attempt to score a game-winning touchdown, but the ball would end up in the hands of the defense, as Louisiana Monroe's Caleb Tucker returned it 15 yards for a "meaningless" score that covered the spread by a half-point.
Final score: Louisiana Monroe 51, Costal Carolina 43 (Louisiana Monroe covers)
South Alabama Jaguars at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Line: Louisiana Tech -11.5
Taking the points seemed like the right side after three quarters in this one. South Alabama trailed 17-16 entering the fourth, easily covering for those who took the Jaguars +11.5.
With less than five minutes left in the game, things looked a little dicey for South Alabama bettors after Louisiana Tech took a 27-16 lead. Still covering by a half-point, things got even dicier after the Jaguars turned it over on downs deep in their own territory. On Louisiana Tech's next offensive play, Boston Scott scored on a 27-yard touchdown to put the Bulldogs up 18 and complete South Alabama's nightmare fourth quarter.
Final score: Louisiana Tech 34, South Alabama 16 (Louisiana Tech covers)
California Golden Bears at Oregon Ducks
Line: Over/under 66.5
It appears that no bet on a game involving Oregon is ever a done deal. For the third time in the last four weeks, the Ducks were involved in one of the weekend's worst bad beats.
This time it was bettors on the under that suffered heartbreak late Saturday night. With less than 11 minutes left in the game, Oregon led 24-14 over California, with the total combined points 28.5 below the closing over/under. But the two teams would combine to score 31 points in an 8:16 span that included three touchdown drives of less than a minute for the Ducks, capped off by Darrian Felix's 11-yard score with 2:35 to push the total over.
Final score: Oregon 45, California 24 (game goes over)
Rob Nelson
10/2/17
There have been no bad beats to speak of thus far in NFL Week 4, but the world of college football did not get so lucky over the weekend.
Rob Nelson of ESPN Stats & Information revisits the worst bad beats from the weekend's gambling action.
Note: Lines are courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
Saturday
Vanderbilt Commodores at Florida Gators
Line: Florida -8.5
Vanderbilt never trailed by more than seven in the first three quarters, which was good news, at the time, for those who bet the underdog.
Just 42 seconds into the fourth quarter, Florida's Lamical Perine gave the Gators a 31-17 lead and now bettors on Vanderbilt were losing their bet for the first time all game. The Commodores later responded with a touchdown drive of their own, cutting the Gators' lead to seven with 3:14 left. At that point, nearly all of the possible outcomes pointed to Vanderbilt covering. But in a play that some folks won't want to be reminded of, Florida's Malik Davis broke through for a 39-yard touchdown on fourth down with 1:42 left. The worst part for Vanderbilt bettors was that the Commodores were out of timeouts, so if Davis didn't score, Florida would have likely kneeled and ended the game as seven-point winners.
Final score: Florida 38, Vanderbilt 24 (Florida covers)
Connecticut Huskies at SMU Mustangs
Line: SMU -16.5
Over the past five seasons, UConn has been the worst ATS team in college football, having covered in less than 27 percent of its games. On Saturday against SMU, however, it looked like the Huskies would easily cover as 16.5-point underdogs.
Nine seconds into the fourth quarter, Connecticut tied the game at 28-28, with an outright win looking like a real possibility. But it all went downhill from there for both the Huskies and those who bet them. SMU would end the game on a 21-0 run with three touchdowns in a 7:22 span, thanks to some costly mistakes by Connecticut. The Huskies had a punt blocked, turned it over on downs deep in their own territory and fumbled a kick return, all contributing to the worst bad beat of the weekend.
Final score: SMU 49, Connecticut 28 (SMU covers)
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Louisiana Monroe Warhawks
Line: Louisiana Monroe -7.5
This bad beat is all about what happened on the game's final play.
Coastal Carolina trailed 45-43 from its own 33-yard line in the final seconds and needed to pull out all the stops to try and win it. Those who bet the Chanticleers were just hoping to avoid the worst-case scenario. Unfortunately for those folks, the worst-case scenario happened. Coastal Carolina tried to play the lateral game in an attempt to score a game-winning touchdown, but the ball would end up in the hands of the defense, as Louisiana Monroe's Caleb Tucker returned it 15 yards for a "meaningless" score that covered the spread by a half-point.
Final score: Louisiana Monroe 51, Costal Carolina 43 (Louisiana Monroe covers)
South Alabama Jaguars at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Line: Louisiana Tech -11.5
Taking the points seemed like the right side after three quarters in this one. South Alabama trailed 17-16 entering the fourth, easily covering for those who took the Jaguars +11.5.
With less than five minutes left in the game, things looked a little dicey for South Alabama bettors after Louisiana Tech took a 27-16 lead. Still covering by a half-point, things got even dicier after the Jaguars turned it over on downs deep in their own territory. On Louisiana Tech's next offensive play, Boston Scott scored on a 27-yard touchdown to put the Bulldogs up 18 and complete South Alabama's nightmare fourth quarter.
Final score: Louisiana Tech 34, South Alabama 16 (Louisiana Tech covers)
California Golden Bears at Oregon Ducks
Line: Over/under 66.5
It appears that no bet on a game involving Oregon is ever a done deal. For the third time in the last four weeks, the Ducks were involved in one of the weekend's worst bad beats.
This time it was bettors on the under that suffered heartbreak late Saturday night. With less than 11 minutes left in the game, Oregon led 24-14 over California, with the total combined points 28.5 below the closing over/under. But the two teams would combine to score 31 points in an 8:16 span that included three touchdown drives of less than a minute for the Ducks, capped off by Darrian Felix's 11-yard score with 2:35 to push the total over.
Final score: Oregon 45, California 24 (game goes over)
