Monday 10/09/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Post Bonus Plays / requests / comments/ trends and concerns here.
 

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Soccer

World Cup

2:45pm ET

Wales v Ireland

Last Head-To-Heads in Wales:
0-0
2-2

Recent Form:
Wales: 3-0-3
Ireland: 2-2-2

KEY STAT: Wales have conceded once in their last five matches

EXPERT VERDICT: This is a huge match for both nations in Cardiff with their World Cup dreams on the line but home advantage can swing it in favour of Wales. They managed to win without the injured Gareth Bale in Georgia on Friday and are a defensively solid side that could take advantage on the break if desperate Ireland need to press for the win late on.

RECOMMENDATION: Wales (1)
 

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Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #8 - BELMONT PARK - 4:46 PM EASTERN POST
The Knickerbocker Stakes
9.0 FURLONGS INNER TURF GRADE II THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $200,000.00 PURSE

#10 DELTA PRINCE
#1 HELLO DON JULIO
#7 VULCAN'S FORGE
#12 FORGE

The Knickerbocker derives its name from the fictional character Diedrich Knickerbocker in Washington Irving's "Knickerbocker History of New York," a mock history of the colony of New Netherland. Here in the 57th running of "The Knick," #10 DELTA PRINCE has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in each of his last five outings, winning three times in this recent streak of racing consistency. Jockey Jose Ortiz and Trainer James Jerkins send him to the post ... they've hit the board with an impressive 83% of their entries saddled as a team to date. #1 HELLO DON JULIO, a 12-1 BOMB, has also produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in five straight hitting the board in four of those efforts, including "POWER RUN WINS" in both his last start, as well as in his 3rd race back.
 

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fresno

Fresno - Race 3

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $2 Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) $1 Pick 5 (50-cent min.)(Races 3-4-5-6-7)


Claiming $10,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 100 • Purse: $13,000 • Post: 2:47P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. ONE SUCH RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, IF FOR $9,000, ALLOWED 1 LB. (MAIDEN, CLAIMING, AND STARTER RACES FOR $8,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Stalker. PRESIDENTSKY is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PRESIDENTSKY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. WILLIAM CROTTY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. PERCY FAWCETT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in av erage Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
4
PRESIDENTSKY
4/1

7/2
3
WILLIAM CROTTY
2/1

9/2
5
PERCY FAWCETT
3/1

10/1
 

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The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Gulfstream Park West - Race #10 - Post: 6:21pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $24,000 Class Rating: 87

Rating: 4

#7 AREYOUTALKINGTOME (ML=3/1)


AREYOUTALKINGTOME - Last time, was entered in a race at Gulfstream Park in a race with a class figure of 96. Dropping considerably in class rating this time puts him in a solid position right here. Owns the highest speed rating on the turf at this distance. I like the fact that this colt's last speed fig, 85, is tops in this group.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 ARPINELLA (ML=7/2), #9 KINGDOM KEPT (ML=9/2), #5 NEW NEL (ML=6/1),

ARPINELLA - Hard to put your dough on the win end of any horse that finishes second and third as frequently as this entrant does. KINGDOM KEPT - This colt most likely won't be right there at the wire. NEW NEL - In this situation, this steed's inability to close in the last clash is a cause for concern.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - AREYOUTALKINGTOME - This colt's turf figure last race is the tops compared to the last turf figures for the rest of these horses.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #7 AREYOUTALKINGTOME to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
7 with [4,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
Pass
 

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park

Laurel Park - Race 10

EXACTA, TRIFECTA &10 cent SUPERFECTA / $1.00 SUPER HIGH 5


Maiden Claiming $16,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 65 • Purse: $22,000 • Post: 5:40P
(PLUS UP TO 30% MBF) FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, FOR EACH $1,750 TO $12,500 2 LBS.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Lone Front-runner. CHANGE IS COMING is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CHANGE IS COMING: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. BRAHMS ROMP: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
9
CHANGE IS COMING
8/1

3/1
2X
BRAHMS ROMP
3/1

7/2
 

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The Walker Group at Portland Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $5400 Class Rating: 77

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. , 121 LBS.; , 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 9, 2017 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,200.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 2 PARTY FOR ONE 6/5

# 5 BETTING ON DR BOW 4/1

# 1 YOUSEEHEREYOUSEE 6/1

PARTY FOR ONE looks to be a formidable contender. Has to be considered a contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group as of late. Sound average speed figures in dirt route races make this animal a key contender. BETTING ON DR BOW - Could beat this field given the 64 speed fig garnered in his last outing. Looks very good for the conditions of this race today, showing solid figs in dirt route races lately. YOUSEEHEREYOUSEE - Camachoflores will almost certainly be able to get this gelding to break out sharply in this race. Could best this group of animals based on the Equibase Speed Fig - 68 - of his last affair.
 

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The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #4 - Post: 2:16pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating: 4

#6 NSEVENTEEN (ML=6/1)
#3 VENEZUELAN KING (ML=2/1)


NSEVENTEEN - Faced tougher last out at Meadowlands. Based on Equibase class figures, this is a weaker bunch, so I will put this horse on my list of probable winners in this race. Have to forget about that last race on the grass. This gelding should do better hitting the main track today. Lets try to beat the morning-line favorites with this gelding. Just missed last out, but ran a decent race. VENEZUELAN KING - Took a big class drop last out, and I think he may have needed it. Navarro enters him at a similar level today. I'd expect an improved performance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 CHAPIN (ML=3/1), #2 CHILL PHIL (ML=8/1),

CHAPIN - He showed not much at all in the last affair. CHILL PHIL - Recent deteriorating Equibase speed figures of 64/59/49 give a sign that this horse may be going off form. This gelding garnered a speed figure in his last race which likely isn't good enough in today's event.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #6 NSEVENTEEN to win if you can get at least 9/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
6 with 3 with [2,7,8] Total Cost: $3

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
 

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The Walker Group at Woodbine

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $34000 Class Rating: 80

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 10 LA VIE EN ROSE 4/1

# 11 MISS SAVVY 8/1

# 4 THIRTY NINE SEVEN 5/1

LA VIE EN ROSE has a decent shot to take this race. Overall the Equibase speed figs of this racer look solid in this affair. Could beat this field given the 74 speed rating earned in her last outing. Looks to have a solid class edge based on the latest company kept. MISS SAVVY - Is tough not to look at based on speed figures which have been strong - 64 avg - of late. Could best this group based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 64 - of her last affair.
 

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WASHINGTON NATIONALS @ CHICAGO CUBS

4:08 PM Game Time Record Open Line Current Line Betting Trend

Teams Pitchers Win-Loss Streak ML O/U ML O/U Run Money O/U

905 Washington (R) Scherzer, M (0-0) (97-65) (50-31 A) W-1 -127 7.5 -121 7.5 n/a n/a n/a

906 Chi. Cubs (L) Quintana, J (0-0) (92-70) (48-33 H) L-1 +117 +111 n/a n/a n/a

LOS ANGELES DODGERS @ ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

10:08 PM Game Time Record Open Line Current Line Betting Trend

Teams Pitchers Win-Loss Streak ML O/U ML O/U Run Money O/U

907 L.A. Dodgers (R) Darvish, Y (0-0) (104-58) (47-34 A) W-4 -117 9 -112 9 63% 55% 93%

908 Arizona (R) Greinke, Z (0-0) (93-69) (52-29 H) L-2 +107 +102 37% 45% 7%

HOUSTON ASTROS @ BOSTON RED SOX

1:08 PM Game Time Record Open Line Current Line Betting Trend

Teams Pitchers Win-Loss Streak ML O/U ML O/U Run Money O/U

909 Houston (R) Morton, C (0-0) (101-61) (53-28 A) L-1 -115 10.5 -118 10.5 93% 90% 63%

910 Boston (R) Porcello, R (0-0) (93-69) (48-33 H) W-1 +105 +108 7% 10% 37%

CLEVELAND INDIANS @ NEW YORK YANKEES

7:08 PM Game Time Record Open Line Current Line Betting Trend

Teams Pitchers Win-Loss Streak ML O/U ML O/U Run Money O/U
911 Cleveland (R) Bauer, T (1-0) (102-60) (53-28 A) L-1 +155 7.5 +155 7.5 n/a n/a n/a

912 N.Y. Yankees (R) Severino, L (0-0) (91-71) (51-30 H) W-1 -165 -165 n/a n/a n/a
 

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2017 MLB Playoffs Betting Results

National League Divisional Series

WASHINGTON VS. CHICAGO CUBS


Game.........................................Score Favorite-Underdog..........Over-Under

1Chicago (+135) at Washington.....3 - 0.........Underdog......................Under 7.5

2Chicago at Washington (-115)......3 - 6.........Favorite........................Over 8.5

3Washington at Chicago

4Washington at Chicago

5Chicago at Washington

***************************


L.A. DODGERS VS. ARIZONA

Match-Up.... Game........................Score.............Favo rite-Underdog.........Over-Under

1Arizona at Los Angeles (-270)........9 - 5....................Underdog...............Over 7.5

2Arizona at Los Angeles (-140)........5 - 8....................Favorite..................Ove r 8.0

3Los Angeles at Arizona

4Los Angeles at Arizona

5Arizona at Los Angeles


****************************

American League Divisional Series

HOUSTON VS. BOSTON

Match - up ........Game................Score............Favor ite-Underdog...........Over-Under

1Boston at Houston (-120)............2 - 8...................Favorite.....................O ver (7)

2Boston at Houston (-185)............8 - 2...................Favorite.....................O ver (8.5)

3Houston at Boston ( -129)...........3 - 10.................Underdog...................Over (9.5 )

4Houston at Boston

5Boston at Houston


*************************

CLEVELAND VS. N.Y. YANKEES

Match - Up .........Game.................Scores............Fa vorite-Underdog..........Over-Under

1. N.Y. Yankees at Cleveland (-134)......4 - 0.............Favorite.....................Under 8.5

2. N.Y. Yankees at Cleveland (-230)......9 - 8.............Favorite.....................Over ( 13 )

3. Cleveland at N.Y. Yankees (-111)......0 - 1.............Favorite.....................Under 8.0

4. Cleveland at N.Y. Yankees

5. N.Y. Yankees at Cleveland
 

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Monday, October 9

Houston @ Boston
Astros are 6-4 vs Boston this season; home team won first three series games.

Morton is 3-0, 1.96 in his last three starts, all of which stayed under. Houston is 5-4 n his road starts this season. He allowed two runs in 5.1 IP in a 3-2 win over Boston 10 days ago.

Porcello is 2-2, 6.26 in his last five starts; over is 7-4 in his last 11 starts. Boston is 8-11 in his home starts this year. He lost 7-1 to the Astros June 17, giving up seven runs in six IP, and pitched a scoreless inning in relief in Game 2 Friday.

Red Sox are in playoffs for 3rd time in last five years; they got swept 3-0 by Cleveland in this round last year. Houston is in playoffs for second time in three years; they’ve never won the World Series, losing 4-0 to the White Sox in 2005.

Cleveland @ New York
New York is 3-7 vs Cleveland this season; home teams won all three games in this series.

Bauer is 2-0, 0.92 in his last three starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven starts. Indians are 8-7 in his road starts. Bauer is pitching on 3 days’ rest; he is 3-0, 0.92 vs New York this season.

Severino got KO’s in first inning of Wild Card game Tuesday; he is 1-0, 6.75 in his last three starts. Over is 3-1 in his last four starts. New York is 12-5 in his home starts; they won his last six starts overall. Severino is 1-1, 3.38 vs Cleveland this season.

New York is in the playoffs for second time in the last five years; they last made the ALCS in 2012- they beat Twins 7-4 in Wild Card game Tuesday, with bullpen getting 26 of the 27 outs. Indians lost Game 7 of the World Series last year; they haven’t won a World Series since 1948. They’re in playoffs for 3rd time in last five years.

Arizona @ Los Angeles
Dodgers won first two games of this season, both of which went over the total. Arizona is 11-10 vs LA this season, 7-3 in Phoenix. Over is 12-9 in Arizona-LA games this season.

Darvish is 2-0, 0.93 in his last three starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight starts. Dodgers are 8-7 in his road starts this season; he allowed two runs in five IP in an 8-6 win at Arizona 8-6, his only start against the Diamondbacks this season.

Greinke is 0-1, 10.80 in his last three starts; over is 4-3 in his last seven outings. Arizona is 15-3 in his home starts this season. Greinke is 1-2, 3.65 in four starts against the Dodgers this year.

Dodgers haven’t been to the World Series since 1988; this is their 5th year in a row in playoffs. Arizona won the Wild Card game 11-8 Wednesday, lost 9-4 last night; this is the first time they’re in the playoffs since 2011.

Washington @ Chicago
Washington is 5-4 against the Cubs this season (over 6-3): Nationals rallied for five runs in bottom of 8th inning Saturday to even this series 1-1.

Scherzer is 2-0, 1.65 in his last three starts (under 3-0), but left his last start with hamstring cramps. Nationals are 11-5 in his road starts. Scherzer beat the Cubs 6-1 on June 27, allowing one run in six IP.

Cubs won Quintana’s last six starts (3-0, 2.82); under is 5-3 in his last eight starts. Cubs are 3-3 in his road starts. He hasn’t pitched against Washington this season.

Cubs won the World Series LY, their first title since 1908; this is their 3rd year in a row in the playoffs. Washington is in the playoffs for 4th time in six years- they lost in this round the previous three times. Nationals have never been in the World Series.
 

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MLB Trend Report

1:08 PM
HOUSTON vs. BOSTON
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Boston
Houston is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Boston's last 14 games when playing at home against Houston
Boston is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

4:08 PM
WASHINGTON vs. CHI CUBS
Washington is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
Chi Cubs are 16-5 SU in their last 21 games
Chi Cubs are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games at home

7:08 PM
CLEVELAND vs. NY YANKEES
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games on the road
NY Yankees are 4-9 SU in their last 13 games when playing at home against Cleveland
NY Yankees are 15-7 SU in their last 22 games

10:08 PM
LA DODGERS vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Dodgers's last 9 games when playing Arizona
LA Dodgers are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Arizona is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
 

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WASHINGTON (98 - 66) at CHICAGO CUBS (93 - 71) - 3:05 PM
MAX SCHERZER (R) vs. JOSE QUINTANA (L)
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 26-29 (-16.5 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
WASHINGTON is 25-15 (+10.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
WASHINGTON is 50-31 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
WASHINGTON is 33-17 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
SCHERZER is 26-6 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
CHICAGO CUBS are 93-71 (-11.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 904-820 (-157.9 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 16-23 (-18.5 Units) against the money line in home games in October games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 37-36 (-20.7 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 72-56 (-12.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 32-33 (-9.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 5-4 (+1.3 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.7 Units)

MAX SCHERZER vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
SCHERZER is 3-1 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 2.92 and a WHIP of 0.973.
His team's record is 3-3 (-0.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-4. (-2.4 units)

JOSE QUINTANA vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
No recent starts.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA DODGERS (106 - 58) at ARIZONA (94 - 71) - 10:05 PM
YU DARVISH (R) vs. ZACK GREINKE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 18-31 (-14.4 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 88-80 (-20.5 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 7-10 (-11.4 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday this season.
LA DODGERS are 16-24 (-15.5 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 43-35 (-16.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
LA DODGERS are 143-104 (-15.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 95-93 (-35.3 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
DARVISH is 14-17 (-12.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
ARIZONA is 94-71 (+15.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 53-29 (+16.7 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
ARIZONA is 30-15 (+11.2 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
ARIZONA is 46-33 (+10.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
ARIZONA is 66-50 (+8.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ARIZONA is 69-52 (+10.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ARIZONA is 36-31 (+7.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GREINKE is 23-10 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 16-3 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in home games this season. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 101-49 (+38.4 Units) against the money line in home games in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
LA DODGERS are 74-32 (+24.5 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
LA DODGERS are 37-13 (+17.4 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 11-10 (+4.2 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
12 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.1 Units)

YU DARVISH vs. ARIZONA since 1997
DARVISH is 2-0 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 2.75 and a WHIP of 0.966.
His team's record is 2-1 (+0.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+0.6 units)

ZACK GREINKE vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
GREINKE is 4-4 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.74 and a WHIP of 1.366.
His team's record is 7-4 (+3.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-6. (-1.8 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (103 - 62) at BOSTON (94 - 71) - 1:05 PM
CHARLIE MORTON (R) vs. RICK PORCELLO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 76-51 (+13.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 103-62 (+12.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 26-15 (+9.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
HOUSTON is 53-29 (+15.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
HOUSTON is 37-19 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
HOUSTON is 80-38 (+24.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 40-20 (+9.2 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
HOUSTON is 20-9 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MORTON is 28-11 (+14.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
BOSTON is 1-12 (-11.6 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 48-44 (-9.3 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
BOSTON is 58-58 (-18.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 227-230 (-65.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
PORCELLO is 2-8 (-9.9 Units) against the money line in home games after a win this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 6-4 (+1.2 Units) against BOSTON this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.8 Units)

CHARLIE MORTON vs. BOSTON since 1997
MORTON is 2-0 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 1.74 and a WHIP of 0.968.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.1 units)

RICK PORCELLO vs. HOUSTON since 1997
PORCELLO is 1-1 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 5.49 and a WHIP of 1.271.
His team's record is 2-1 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+0.7 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (104 - 61) at NY YANKEES (93 - 73) - 7:05 PM
TREVOR BAUER (R) vs. LUIS SEVERINO (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 7-3 (+4.2 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.5 Units)

TREVOR BAUER vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
BAUER is 4-4 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.01 and a WHIP of 1.374.
His team's record is 5-4 (+1.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-4. (-1.3 units)

LUIS SEVERINO vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
SEVERINO is 2-1 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 2.49 and a WHIP of 0.987.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-0. (+4.1 units)
 

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HOUSTON @ BOSTON
Houston is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Houston is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

WASHINGTON @ CHI CUBS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
Washington is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Chi Cubs is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Chi Cubs is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games

CLEVELAND @ NY YANKEES
Cleveland is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games on the road
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
NY Yankees is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games at home

LA DODGERS @ ARIZONA
LA Dodgers is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
LA Dodgers is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
 

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Monday's Best Bet
October 9, 2017


NLDS Game 3 Best Bet

L.A. Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks


The L.A. Dodgers are up 2-0 in their NLDS series with the Arizona Diamondbacks, and are hoping that their big move at the trade deadline in July can push them on through to the NLCS. L.A. gives the ball to Yu Darvish tonight, and while Darvish hasn't quite lived up to the lofty expectations the Dodgers organization and their fans had for them when he was brought it, all of that can be forgotten with a strong effort that leads to a W tonight.

It won't be easy though as Arizona sends their ace Zack Greinke to the hill, and down 0-2 in the series, the Diamondbacks will pull out all the stops they can in order to live to fight another day.

Bookmaker.eu Odds: L.A. (-111), Arizona (+101); Total set at 9

This series hasn't been a good one for pitchers so far and that's a little surprising given the first two games were played in a pitcher-friendly park like Dodgers Stadium.

Games 1 and 2 saw 14 and 13 runs scored combined, and the 7 HR's already hit in this series is indicative of how MLB has become a homer-happy league in 2017. Six of those seven HR's have been tallied by Arizona, so for them to have that many balls leave the yard and still be down 0-2 SU in the series and lose both of those games by at least three runs has to be a little disheartening. Yet it speaks to just how talented and deep this entire Dodgers lineup is from top to bottom and why they were the heavy favorites entering the NLDS.

With the series now shifting to a hitter-friendly park in Arizona, many bettors will have a tough time thinking the offensive barrage will slow down. Both bullpens have already gotten plenty of work in this series and even with yesterday's day off, there are probably a few guys – especially on Arizona's side – in the bullpen that would rather not make that trip to the mound tonight.

But Greinke had a rough outing in the Wild Card game (3.2 IP, 4 runs allowed on six hits) and another performance like that tonight and the rest of his Diamondbacks teammates might as well get their off-season plans finalized. That effort was also the last thing bettors remember about Greinke and it, along with the first two games having at least 13 runs scored is why VegasInsider.com shows about 75% of the money bet on tonight's total coming in on the high side of things.

The 'overs' have been the way to go throughout these playoffs so far as both Wildcard games cashed 'over' tickets, and of the respective ALDS and NLDS games played so far, the 'over' is 7-3. I've already touched on the2-0 O/U mark in this series, but with elimination games now at the forefront, it might be time for bettors to shift their thinking a little bit.

It's been rare for Greinke to have rough starts in consecutive outings since after the first month of the year, and while he's definitely struggled down the stretch with 4 IP or fewer in his last three starts, you know he'll want to be a big contributor in getting a W tonight against his former team.

Greinke's last two starts against L.A. ended in 3-1 and 8-1 Arizona wins and he only allowed four hits in each of those starts (one at home, one on the road) in six and seven innings pitched. He's got a strong ideal of how to attack this deep Dodgers lineup and he's been quite successful all year against them, outside of his first appearance vs them in mid-April when the Dodgers got to him early in a 7-1 game.

Even with that though, in four Greinke starts vs L.A. this year, none of the four games have ever finished with more than 9 total runs scored (games of 4, 9, 5, and 8) and with the stakes much higher tonight, I do believe the good Greinke shows up in spades.

Darvish only had one start vs. Arizona this year and it was decent. L.A. ended up winning that game 8-6, but Darvish went five full innings, allowed just five hits and 2 ER and struck out 10. It was his third career start against this Arizona franchise and in each one of them he's struck out double-digit batters. That's the type of stuff L.A. expected to get from him on a consistent basis when they traded for him, and it's the type of stuff they hope to get from Darvish tonight.

While the familiarity with Dodgers hitters should actually work in Greinke's favor, it's the unfamiliarity Diamondbacks hitters have against Darvish that should work out in Darvish's favor tonight. He can be a spectacular pitcher when he is on, and the postseason stage isn't too big for him after he's got some experience in this setting the past few years. If Greinke is pitching a gem on the other side, Darvish has to be up to the task of matching him if L.A wants to wrap up this series tonight and not give Arizona any sort of life.

So with the first two games of this series in a pitcher-friendly ballpark going well 'over' the number, I'm looking for that same “reverse” affect to happen in Game 3 tonight in a hitter-friendly park. A total of 9 is a little high for the capabilities of these two starters as Chase Field and the HR barrage we've seen in Games 1 and 2 have impacted this number.

Greinke's starts against L.A. this year were only saddled with a total of '9' once this year and it was in early August game in Arizona. That game ended 3-2 in favor of L.A and tonight's game should have a similarly low-scoring result.

With L.A. 0-3-1 O/U in theri last four on the road, 1-5 O/U in their last six on the road against a winning team, and 1-3-1 O/U in their last five away from home during October, I've got no problem going against the grain and taking the low side of this total tonight.

Add in Greinke's 2-6-1 O/U run against division opponents and a 3-7-1 O/U run overall, and I think he bounces back in a big way after a rough outing in the Wild Card game. Darvish will be up to the task of going toe-to-toe with him as this game likely finishes with 7 or 8 runs combined tops.

Best Bet: Under 9 runs (-101)
 

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Monday's MLB Division Series Betting Preview and Odds

All four Division Series matchups will be in action Monday. The Astros will try again to close out the Red Sox and the Indians will look to do the same against the Yankees while the Cubs-Nats and D-Backs-Dodgers will resume after a travel day with a pair or crucial Game 3’s.

Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros (+107, 10.5)

Astros lead series 2-1

Hanley Ramirez struggled through the final two months of the regular season and was left out of the Boston Red Sox's starting lineup in Game 1 of their American League Division Series. The veteran slugger seems to be back in form after an injury gave him another shot and looks to stay hot as the Red Sox attempt to even the best-of-five series at two wins apiece when they host the Houston Astros on Monday afternoon.

Ramirez, who batted .213 with 45 strikeouts in his final 43 games of 2017, needed an injury to Eduardo Nunez to regain the role of designated hitter and has gone 6-for-10 with three RBIs in the first three games of the series. Houston will try to contain Ramirez while getting its offense going again after being shut out by Boston's bullpen over the last eight innings of a 10-3 loss in Game 3 on Sunday. AL batting champion Jose Altuve continued his torrid hitting by recording three hits for the Astros and is 8-for-11 in the series while Carlos Correa went deep for the second time in two games and has knocked in six runs in three contests. Charlie Morton won a career-high 14 games and will get the start for Houston in Game 4 against Rick Porcello, who went 11-17 with a 4.65 ERA this season after posting a 22-4 record en route to the AL Cy Young Award in 2016.

TV: 1:08 p.m. ET, FS1

PITCHING MATCHUP: Astros RH Charlie Morton (14-7, 3.62 ERA) vs. Red Sox RH Rick Porcello (Playoffs: 0-0, 0.00)

Morton won his final three starts of the regular season, including one at Fenway Park, as he allowed just four runs and 13 hits over 18 1/3 innings. The 33-year-old limited Boston to two runs in 5 1/3 frames on Sept. 29 as he improved to 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA in two career starts against the Red Sox. Morton, who has handled Ramirez (1-for-15) and Mookie Betts (0-for-4), went 4-4 with a 4.17 ERA in nine turns on the road in 2017 and 4-1 with a 2.54 mark in September.

Porcello won his last two decisions and went 7-3 in the final two months of the regular season to get the start despite pitching one scoreless inning of relief in Game 1 on Thursday. The 28-year-old New Jersey native was 7-11 with a 5.43 ERA at home this year after going 13-1 with a 2.97 mark at Fenway Park in 2016. Carlos Beltran is 10-for-27 with a homer and Josh Reddick 3-for-10 with a blast versus Porcello, who gave up seven runs over six innings in a loss to Houston on June 17.

TRENDS:

* Astros are 6-1 in Mortons last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

* Red Sox are 1-5 in their last 6 Divisional Playoff games.

* Over is 5-0 in Astros last 5 playoff games.

* Over is 8-2 in Red Sox last 10 overall.

* Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Boston.

CONSENSUS: The public is leaning toward the road favorite Astros with 60 percent of the picks and Under is grabbing 55 percent of the totals wagers.

*******************************************

Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs (+104, 7.5)

Series tied 1-1

The Washington Nationals were unsure what to expect from reigning National League Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer going into the playoffs, but they’ll need their ace to be close to his best when he gets the ball Monday for Game 3 of the NL Division Series against the Chicago Cubs. The series shifts back to Wrigley Field after the teams split the first two games in Washington.

The Cubs’ pitching staff was dominant for the first 16 innings of the series, shutting out the Nationals in the opener and taking a 3-1 lead into the eighth inning of Game 2 before Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman went deep in a five-run frame that lifted Washington to a 6-3 win. "We've got to win two more games," Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo told reporters. "Doesn't matter how we do it. Doesn't matter the scenario. It starts Monday. With this group, with this experience, nothing's really going to faze us. We've given up way bigger home runs than that before." Chicago hopes left-hander Jose Quintana can put the Nationals back on their heels as he makes his postseason debut. Scherzer left his last start of the regular season on Sept. 30 with a hamstring injury that left his status for the division series up in the air, but he will aim for his first postseason win since the 2013 AL Division Series.

TV: 4:08 p.m. ET, TBS

PITCHING MATCHUP: Nationals RH Max Scherzer (16-6, 2.51 ERA) vs. Cubs LH Jose Quintana (11-11, 4.15)

Scherzer is 0-3 in his last five postseason starts, but he posted a 3.75 ERA in two outings in last year’s NLDS against the Dodgers. The 33-year-old was pitching well before his injury, going 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA in his last three regular-season starts. Scherzer is 3-1 with a 2.92 ERA in six career starts against the Cubs, including a win this season in which he allowed one run and two hits over six frames.

Quintana has gone 7-3 with a 3.74 ERA in 14 starts since the Cubs acquired him from the cross-town White Sox. The Cubs have won the 28-year-old’s last six starts, and he has posted a 2.82 ERA over that span. Quintana has never faced the Nationals.

TRENDS:

* Nationals are 5-1 in Scherzers last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

* Cubs are 6-0 in Quintanas last 6 home starts.

* Under is 11-1 in Nationals last 12 games following an off day.

* Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 playoff home games.

* Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 games following a loss.

CONSENSUS: The public is leaning toward the road chalk Nationals with 62 percent of the picks and Under is grabbing 60 percent of the totals wagers.

***************************************

Cleveland Indians at New York Yankees (-164, 7.5)

Indians lead series 2-1

Luis Severino seeks a measure of redemption as he tries to keep the New York Yankees' season alive when he leads them into Game 4 of their American League Division Series against the visiting Cleveland Indians on Monday. The Yankees avoided being swept in the best-of-five matchup by posting a 1-0 victory on Sunday, riding a seven-inning gem from Masahiro Tanaka and a solo homer by Greg Bird to the season-saving win.

Tanaka allowed three hits and recorded seven strikeouts in the best outing - by far - by a New York starter this postseason, a lackluster stretch for the rotation that began with Severino retiring only one batter in the wild-card game against Minnesota on Tuesday. The Indians, who registered four singles and a triple in Sunday's defeat, will counter in Game 4 with Trevor Bauer on three days' rest. Bauer flummoxed the Yankees through 6 2/3 innings of a 4-0 win in the series opener and has won 11 of his last 12 decisions overall, including three victories over New York. Cleveland played Sunday without cleanup hitter Edwin Encarnacion, who remains day-to-day after spraining his ankle in Game 2.

TV: 7:08 p.m. ET, FS1

PITCHING MATCHUP: Indians RH Trevor Bauer (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Yankees RH Luis Severino (0-0, 81.00)

Bauer has allowed two runs and 11 hits over 19 2/3 innings in a three-start span dating to the regular season. The 26-year-old posted a 4.54 ERA on the road this year but owns a 2.87 mark in three career turns at Yankee Stadium. Bauer struck out New York slugger Aaron Judge each of the three times he faced him in Game 1.

Severino made a pair of starts against Cleveland in August, allowing a total of four earned runs and six hits in 13 1/3 innings while recording 18 strikeouts. The 23-year-old was reached for 15 of the 21 home runs he served up this year at home, including three - two by Jose Ramirez - in a loss to the Indians at Yankee Stadium on Aug. 28. Severino, who has worked just 9 1/3 frames in a span of 23 days, owns a 2.49 ERA in four career starts versus Cleveland.

TRENDS:

* Indians are 6-1 in their last 7 Divisional Playoff games.

* Indians are 10-1 in Bauers last 11 starts vs. American League East.

* Yankees are 14-2 in Severinos last 16 starts.

* Under is 7-1-2 in Bauers last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

* Under is 9-1-1 in Yankees last 11 Divisional Playoff home games.

* Indians are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

**********************************************

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks (102, 9)

Dodgers lead series 2-0

The Los Angeles Dodgers have rolled to back-to-back victories over the Arizona Diamondbacks and look to wrap up the best-of-5 National League Division Series when the scene switches to Phoenix on Monday. Los Angeles racked up 17 runs and 24 hits in two easy wins as it resembled the squad that led the majors with 104 regular-season victories.

The Diamondbacks attempt to remain in the series behind ace Zack Greinke, the right-hander who won 51 games in three seasons with the Dodgers before signing with Arizona after the 2015 campaign. "If you've got to pick one guy to stop this situation we're in, I think we've found the right guy in Zack Greinke," Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said in a press conference. Los Angeles right fielder Yasiel Puig has been one of the hitting stars by going 5-for-9 with four RBIs as the Dodgers appear to have put aside their regular-season struggles (8-11) against Arizona. "We're going to treat it like another game. We've been in Chase Field before," Los Angeles infielder Logan Forsythe told reporters. "I know it's probably going to be a little louder. But we're going up against Greinke, who is their guy, and we're going to do our homework, and go out there and prepare for the game the way we've been playing."

TV: 10:08 p.m. ET, TBS

PITCHING MATCHUP: Dodgers RH Yu Darvish (10-12, 3.86 ERA) vs. Diamondbacks RH Zack Greinke (playoffs: 0-0, 9.82)

Darvish finished the season strong by going 2-0 in his last three outings, allowing just one earned run in 19 1/3 innings during the stretch. The 31-year-old from Japan has a 5.40 ERA while losing both his career postseason starts but the Dodgers acquired him from the Texas Rangers to boost up their playoff-caliber pitching. "To have that front-line guy to win a playoff game certainly that's why you acquire a guy like Yu," Los Angeles manager Dave Roberts said in a press conference. "Outside of the first three or four (outings) once he came over, he's been very good and continuing to get better."

Greinke has been ineffective over his last three turns - giving up 14 runs in 11 2/3 innings - and lasted just 3 2/3 frames in the wild-card contest against the Colorado Rockies. The 33-year-old is 3-3 with a 3.92 ERA in 10 career postseason outings with two of the wins coming during his six postseason starts for the Dodgers. "We've built around him. He set the pace for the entire pitching staff all year long," Lovullo told reporters. "I know he loves challenges like this. Nobody prepares better. Nobody is going to work to make sure that on that day when he takes the mound that he's going to be comfortable, confident and ready."

TRENDS:

* Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.

* Diamondbacks are 10-1 in their last 11 during game 3 of a series.

* Over is 4-0-1 in Dodgers last 5 Divisional Playoff games.

* Over is 6-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 vs. National League West.

* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Arizona.

CONSENSUS: The public is leaning toward the home favorite Diamondbacks with 70 percent of the picks and Under is grabbing 62 percent of the totals wagers.
 

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StatFox Super Situations

LA DODGERS at ARIZONA
Play On - Road teams (LA DODGERS) off 2 straight home wins vs. division rivals against opponent off 2 straight road losses vs. a division rival 55-30 since 1997. ( 64.7% | 30.1 units ) 2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 0.9 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

LA DODGERS at ARIZONA
LA DODGERS are 59-18 (+31.1 Units) against the money line after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The average score was: LA DODGERS (5.4) , OPPONENT (3.4)
 

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MLB Betting Picks & Tips

Houston (-120) at Boston; Total: 10.5

The Boston Red Sox seemed to prolong the inevitable for one more day. That’s not to say that the Red Sox can’t find a way to advance to Game 5 and get Chris Sale one more start against the Astros, but Rick Porcello is not the guy that you want on the bump when you need to stay alive. Then again, Doug Fister wouldn’t have been the preferred choice either, so the Tournament of Variance has stayed true to the name that I have given it so far this season.

The preferred side, albeit slightly, has been Houston in this one. Charlie Morton will take the mound for the ‘Stros. Morton, much like Game 3 starter Brad Peacock, had a breakout type of season this year. In 25 starts, Morton hung a 3.62 ERA with a 3.46 FIP and a 3.58 xFIP. Morton worked 146.2 innings and struck out 163 batters. He did walk 50, hit 13, and had a little bit of a problem with injuries. One of the interesting things about Morton’s season is that he showcased some enormous reverse platoon splits. Lefties only hit .172/.263/.298 against him, while righties batted .272/.343/.461. The Red Sox do have quite a few right-handed hitters, but I’m still not a believer in this lineup, despite the offensive barrage in Game 3.

Give the Red Sox credit for digging out of an early 3-0 hole to stay alive. Rafael Devers hit a big dong off of Francisco Liriano and that set things in motion. The Red Sox also got to Chris Devenski, which was again proof of just how f’d up these playoffs have been. Some truly elite arms have not pitched well. The Red Sox were 7-for-12 with RISP and the Astros were 2-for-10. Houston had 13 hits, only struck out six times, but only managed three runs. David Price will be unavailable as a bridge to the bullpen when Porcello gets into trouble and that is the deciding factor in taking the Astros as far as I’m concerned.

Those that have followed along all season know that we nailed it with Rick Porcello. Coming off of a career-high in innings pitched, Porcello went from a 3.15 ERA with a 3.40 FIP and a 3.89 xFIP to a 4.65 ERA with a 4.60 FIP and a 4.43 xFIP. His LOB% only dropped by 4.7 percent, so this wasn’t some unlucky year with the luck metrics. Porcello’s command completely fell apart and he picked the wrong season to start allowing more fly balls. Porcello posted a 14.7 percent HR/FB, a 5.4 percent increase from last season, despite allowing almost four percent more fly balls. That is a command issue. For most of the year, Porcello was among the league’s worst in batted balls with a 95+ mph exit velocity.

I’ll roll with Houston today. I am a little bit worried about their bullpen as well, but not the extent that I am with Boston’s. Price has emerged as the most important non-Craig Kimbrel arm in that pen and he won’t be usable after throwing 57 pitches in Game 3.

Washington (-120) at Chicago

Per usual, we’ll wait until the middle of the morning for a total at Wrigley Field. The Nationals and Cubs are tied at one in this series, as the Kyle Hendricks decision worked well in Game 1, but the Nationals got a huge swing in the eighth inning from Bryce Harper and then another one from Ryan Zimmerman to take away Game 2. Jon Lester pitched fairly well, though he only struck out two over six innings. Strikeouts mean so much in the playoffs for obvious reasons and the Nationals have put a lot of balls in play thus far.

To get a split was huge for the Nationals with Max Scherzer going today. Heading into the series, the fact that Scherzer was only slated for one start was the deciding factor for me in terms of looking at Chicago on the series price. Scherzer put the finishing touches on another wonderful season with a 2.51 ERA, a 2.90 FIP, a 3.28 xFIP, and a 34.4 percent K%, which was a career-best. The concern here is that we don’t know how Scherzer will fare. He’s thrown some bullpens and sides since leaving his September 30 start after 3.1 innings with the hamstring injury. Will he be sharp? Scherzer is a guy that has fallen victim to occasional command hiccups.

It was a little bit surprising that Jose Quintana was named the Game 3 starts. Quintana, since joining the Cubs, has been brilliant. Across 14 starts, Quintana owns a 3.74 ERA with a 3.25 FIP and a 3.24 xFIP. He struck out 98 in 84.1 innings of wowkr and only walked 21. The Quintana addition was a strong one for the Cubs and he has been worth his weight in gold thus far. With the off day, both bullpens are in pretty decent shape. This could very well come down to the bullpens, where it is hard to find a discernible edge.

Offensively, neither team has really hit a stride. The Nationals got a couple big blows in the eighth in Game 2, but managed only two hits in Game 1. The Cubs haven’t been able to maximize their opportunities.

This is the toughest game on the board for me. Because I have concerns about Scherzer and how sharp he’ll be, I’d have the thinnest of leans to the Cubs.

Los Angeles (-115) at Arizona; Total: 9

I have not been impressed with the way that the Diamondbacks have handled their starting staff in this series. Zack Godley was wasted in relief in Game 1 when the Diamondbacks had spotted Clayton Kershaw a four-run head start. Godley should have pitched as the Game 1 starter. Robbie Ray was used in the Wild Card Game and then ran out of gas in the middle innings of Game 2. This is Arizona’s best chance to win a game. Zack Greinke will go up against Yu Darvish.

Darvish posted a 3.44 ERA with a 3.38 FIP and a 3.19 xFIP in his nine starts with the Dodgers. The nice thing is that Darvish wrapped up the year with three really solid starts because he had been pretty pedestrian for a while before then. The rub is that he faced the Giants, Phillies, and Padres in those three starts. The Diamondbacks are significantly better than those three offenses. I’m unsure what to expect from Darvish in this start, to be completely honest. He struck out 10 over five in his lone Chase Field start this season, which was really good, obviously, but this is a tough pitching environment. Gripping the baseball is tough to do in the dry air and Darvish had some control issues earlier on in the year. I think he’s a little bit more high-variance of a starter in this spot than the line would suggest and what his body of work would suggest.

Greinke is coming back off of a pretty bad Wild Card Game start. He allowed four runs on six hits and only struck out one across 3.2 innings of work. The nice thing is that he only threw 58 pitches, so he should be in pretty good shape from an arm standpoint in this one. Greinke had an excellent year with a 3.20 ERA, a 3.31 FIP, and a 3.34 xFIP, but we’ve seen in the playoffs that it really doesn’t matter all that much. Aces have not pitched well and middle of the rotation guys have. I do think that there’s a bit of upside to Greinke, though it concerns me that he struggled so much on the big stage in the Wild Card Game. This is another elimination game with similar stakes.

To me, the play in this game is the over. Both bullpens have had some bumps along the way and I think both starters will have some issues in this one. From a side standpoint, this looks like a game to live bet, as most playoff games are.
 

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MLB Umpire Assignment

909 Houston Astros -122 Over 10½ +100
910 Boston Red Sox +112 Under 10½ -120
Mark Wegner 2017: 15-15, 15-13 o/u (2016: 14-16, 20-9 o/u)
Road team is 7-0 in Wegners last 7 games behind home plate.
Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 games with Wegner behind home plate.
Over is 5-1-1 in Wegners last 7 Astros games behind home plate.
Under is 9-4 in Wegners last 13 Red Sox games behind home plate.


905 Washington Nationals -115 Over 7½ +105
906 Chicago Cubs +105 Under 7½ -125
Fieldin Culbreth 2017: 20-7, 15-12 o/u (2016: 20-9, 13-15 o/u)

911 Cleveland Indians
912 New York Yankees
Brian O'Nora 2017: 16-15, 14-16 o/u (2016: 9-9, 10-7 o/u)
Home team is 9-4 in O'Noras last 13 games behind home plate.
Indians are 9-4 in their last 13 games with O'Nora behind home plate.
Yankees are 5-2 in their last 7 games with O'Nora behind home plate.


907 Los Angeles Dodgers -112 Over 9 -115
908 Arizona Diamondbacks +102 Under 9 -105
Gerry Davis 2017: 16-13, 10-17 o/u (2016: 15-15, 12-18 o/u)
 

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