AL Wild Card Game Information - Minnesota vs NY Yankees

Biz · Oct 3, 2017

Wild Card Round:
Since 2012:

Road Teams: 7-3 (+5.59U)
- Road Fav: 4-1 (+2.9)
- Road Dog: 3-2 (+ 2.69)

Baltimore +216 @ Texas 2012
5-1 Baltimore win only game above +200

St Louis +153 @Atlanta 2012
6-3 St Louis win

Very limited sample size, but road teams and dogs aren't bad at all.

Totals there is no edge at all regarding Home Dog/Fav. 3-2/2-3 each way.

SDQL put out a stat regarding Severino starts, which suggests a play on the OVER. It reads....."This season with Luis Severino in a Home game, his previous start he pitched at least 6 full innings, and the Yankees are not on a 5+ game winning streak."

12-1 to the Over.

The game has gone OVER the last 12 times. This is in contrast to the current betting markets and bet signals. The Under 7.5 is getting juiced a bit. Is it the public seeing 2 good pitchers and taking the Under? Listening to Tim Kukjian he noted that Minnesota has outscored all teams since August 5 and out Homered every team since Aug 8.

Severino also 15-7 OVER at Home overall this year, 7 of the last 8, just beat Minn 11-3 a few weeks ago at Home.

Post Season baseball can often times be tense, close to the vest games....especially in an elimination game. These numbers suggest Over.

Food for thought......

starter = Luis Severino and H and s:SIP >= 6 and streak < 5 and date >= 20160401

SU:	7-6 (1.31, 53.8%)	avg line: -196.2 / 175.5	on / against: -$180 / +$110	ROI: -7.1% / +8.0%
RL:	7-6 (0.04, 53.8%)	avg line: 105.8 / -113.4	on / against: +$152 / -$124	ROI: +9.7% / -7.4%
OU:	12-1-0 (3.69, 92.3%)	avg total: 8.2	over / under: +$1,080 / -$1,185	ROI: +73.0% / -85.6%

	Runs	Walks	SO	Hits	XBH	HR	SII	MRI	IL	LOB	TLOB	ODP	SRA	PU
Team	6.62	2.46	7.69	9.38	2.08	2.08	2.85	1.62	4.38	12.69	5.62	0.57	3.77	3.14
Opp	5.31	3.31	9.62	7.46	1.23	1.46	2.69	1.38	3.15	12.31	5.77	0.64	4.00	3.43

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
May 08, 2016	box	Sun	home	Yankees	Luis Severino - R	Red Sox	Steven Wright - R	1-5	-4	L	-2.0	U	3-7	1-0	0-5	-120	8.0	9
May 13, 2016	box	Fri	home	Yankees	Luis Severino - R	White Sox	Chris Sale - L	1-7	-6	L	1.0	O	6-9	0-0	0-6	133	7.0	9
May 01, 2017	box	Mon	home	Yankees	Luis Severino - R	Blue Jays	Marco Estrada - R	1-7	-6	L	0.5	O	7-12	0-2	0-6	-170	7.5	9
May 14, 2017	box	Sun	home	Yankees	Luis Severino - R	Astros	Mike Fiers - R	11-6	5	W	8.5	O	11-9	1-3	5-2	-145	8.5	9
Jun 10, 2017	box	Sat	home	Yankees	Luis Severino - R	Orioles	Chris Tillman - R	16-3	13	W	9.5	O	18-4	0-0	14-0	-250	9.5	9
Jun 22, 2017	box	Thu	home	Yankees	Luis Severino - R	Angels	Jesse Chavez - R	5-10	-5	L	5.5	O	8-11	3-0	4-5	-240	9.5	9
Jul 26, 2017	box	Wed	home	Yankees	Luis Severino - R	Reds	Homer Bailey - R	9-5	4	W	5.5	O	12-4	1-2	7-0	-260	8.5	9
Jul 31, 2017	box	Mon	home	Yankees	Luis Severino - R	Tigers	Michael Fulmer - R	7-3	4	W	1.5	O	7-9	2-1	5-1	-230	8.5	9
Aug 12, 2017	box	Sat	home	Yankees	Luis Severino - R	Red Sox	Drew Pomeranz - L	5-10	-5	L	6.5	O	9-12	2-2	2-7	-160	8.5	9
Aug 28, 2017	box	Mon	home	Yankees	Luis Severino - R	Indians	Corey Kluber - R	2-6	-4	L	1.0	O	3-6	1-1	1-4	100	7.0	9
Sep 03, 2017	box	Sun	home	Yankees	Luis Severino - R	Red Sox	Chris Sale - L	9-2	7	W	4.0	O	13-5	2-0	8-0	110	7.0	9
Sep 15, 2017	box	Fri	home	Yankees	Luis Severino - R	Orioles	Gabriel Ynoa - R	8-2	6	W	1.0	O	10-3	1-2	6-1	-340	9.0	9
Sep 20, 2017	box	Wed	home	Yankees	Luis Severino - R	Twins	Bartolo Colon - R	11-3	8	W	5.5	O	15-6	0-0	8-3	-315	8.5	9
Oct 03, 2017	box	Tue	home	Yankees	Luis Severino - R	Twins	Ervin Santana - R									-260	7.5

Biz · Oct 3, 2017

If you think Minnesota can score 4 runs tonight, then they are a clear play and you are free rolling with the side if you also take the Over.

151FevaNation · Oct 3, 2017

good stuff BIz!

Biz · Oct 3, 2017

Biz said:
If you think Minnesota can score 4 runs tonight, then they are a clear play and you are free rolling with the side if you also take the Over.

That didn't take long. Free rolling with Minnesota now