How to bet Yankees-Twins AL wild-card game
Joe Peta
ESPN INSIDER
Although Major League Baseball's wild-card games are advance-or-go-home contests, lately they've seen as many starting-pitching gems, as they have all-hands-on-deck efforts. Sure, the Blue Jays beat the Orioles last year in the American League wild-card game thanks to better bullpen use in an 11-inning game that featured the use of 13 pitchers, but in the past three years, wild-card games have also featured starting pitching gems from Dallas Keuchel, Jake Arrieta and Madison Bumgarner (twice).
Neither of Tuesday night's participants, the Minnesota Twins nor the New York Yankees, would appear to have aces of that caliber. Minnesota's Ervin Santana has a lifetime ERA above 4.00, and it was just a year ago that the Yankees' starter, Luis Severino, sported a ghastly 5.83 ERA in mixed work as both a reliever and a starter. There's no question that each qualified as his team's ace this season, though, thanks to team-high starts, innings pitched and rotation-best ERAs, with Severino's besting Santana's 2.98 to 3.28.
Neither of these teams' calling card is run suppression, though -- it's run scoring. Led by rookie Aaron Judge's 52 home runs, the Yankees trailed only the Astros in runs scored in 2017. That's quite a turnaround for a team that was outscored by the DH-less San Diego Padres last season. The Twins were an offensive force, as well, finishing fourth in the American League in scoring, while topping the 800-run mark for the first time since 2009. In fact, since the All-Star break, it's not the Yankees nor MLB's highest-scoring team, the Astros, nor even the Indians, who won nearly three-quarters of their games in the second half, who led the majors in runs scored. It was the Minnesota Twins -- by a comfortable margin.
Both teams are led by a core of young, everyday players with bright futures, but Minnesota faces a New York-based cloud that hangs over the franchise in October. The Twins have lost 12 straight postseason games dating back to 2004, and nine of those losses were to the Yankees. They'll need to break that streak for their 2017 playoff experience to last more than one evening.
I'm back for my third straight year to preview October baseball, and I've got a postseason streak that I don't have any desire to see come to an end. I've previewed all 18 MLB playoff series for ESPN Chalk the past two years and have a 17-1 record in calling the winner, including turning in last year's perfect bracket -- a baseball handicapper's equivalent of scaling Mount Everest.
Here are my thought's on Tuesday night's game:
Minnesota Twins (Santana) +210 at New York Yankees (Severino) -240
Over/Under: 7.5
Based on the Twins' MLB-leading offense since the All-Star break, and given that the Twins emerged from a half-dozen-team scrum for the second AL wild card, you'd probably suspect they enter the playoffs as a hot team. In fact, the Twins' emergence from the pack resembled a horse race in which the winner didn't sprint its way to the finish, but merely slowed down less than the rest of the horses. Only a win in their meaningless season finale gave the Twins a winning record in September. They don't really enter October hot -- their competition simply imploded.
There have been roughly as many wild-card games dominated by a starting pitcher as there have been all-hands-on-deck contributions since the change in wild-card game format in 2012. The good news for the Yankees is that in either scenario, they're better equipped than the Twins. Owing to his admittedly impressive 3.32 ERA , Santana might have the potential to toss a gem, but you'd never predict it based on his skill set. In fact, it's Severino who has the better strikeout rate and walk rate, and, by a wide margin, he induces more ground balls.
On top of that, the Yankees have the better defense, albeit marginally, and the better bullpen, materially. Stripped of cluster luck, which benefited both teams' runs-scored readings, New York has an ever more superior offense than the headline numbers suggest. It's one game, so of course anything can happen (and the Twins do have the potential to create some runs on the basepaths), but the Yankees can play that game, as well.
New York is a big favorite, as all of these factors are incorporated in the inflated price, but it's not going to scare me off tonight. I've got the Yankees winning this game close to 75 percent of the time, largely due to their huge bullpen advantage. There'll be other games this postseason that will register as stronger plays for sure, but by my numbers, there's still enough edge to make the Judge-led Bombers the play Tuesday night.
ESPN Chalk pick: New York -240
Joe Peta
ESPN INSIDER
Although Major League Baseball's wild-card games are advance-or-go-home contests, lately they've seen as many starting-pitching gems, as they have all-hands-on-deck efforts. Sure, the Blue Jays beat the Orioles last year in the American League wild-card game thanks to better bullpen use in an 11-inning game that featured the use of 13 pitchers, but in the past three years, wild-card games have also featured starting pitching gems from Dallas Keuchel, Jake Arrieta and Madison Bumgarner (twice).
Neither of Tuesday night's participants, the Minnesota Twins nor the New York Yankees, would appear to have aces of that caliber. Minnesota's Ervin Santana has a lifetime ERA above 4.00, and it was just a year ago that the Yankees' starter, Luis Severino, sported a ghastly 5.83 ERA in mixed work as both a reliever and a starter. There's no question that each qualified as his team's ace this season, though, thanks to team-high starts, innings pitched and rotation-best ERAs, with Severino's besting Santana's 2.98 to 3.28.
Neither of these teams' calling card is run suppression, though -- it's run scoring. Led by rookie Aaron Judge's 52 home runs, the Yankees trailed only the Astros in runs scored in 2017. That's quite a turnaround for a team that was outscored by the DH-less San Diego Padres last season. The Twins were an offensive force, as well, finishing fourth in the American League in scoring, while topping the 800-run mark for the first time since 2009. In fact, since the All-Star break, it's not the Yankees nor MLB's highest-scoring team, the Astros, nor even the Indians, who won nearly three-quarters of their games in the second half, who led the majors in runs scored. It was the Minnesota Twins -- by a comfortable margin.
Both teams are led by a core of young, everyday players with bright futures, but Minnesota faces a New York-based cloud that hangs over the franchise in October. The Twins have lost 12 straight postseason games dating back to 2004, and nine of those losses were to the Yankees. They'll need to break that streak for their 2017 playoff experience to last more than one evening.
I'm back for my third straight year to preview October baseball, and I've got a postseason streak that I don't have any desire to see come to an end. I've previewed all 18 MLB playoff series for ESPN Chalk the past two years and have a 17-1 record in calling the winner, including turning in last year's perfect bracket -- a baseball handicapper's equivalent of scaling Mount Everest.
Here are my thought's on Tuesday night's game:
Minnesota Twins (Santana) +210 at New York Yankees (Severino) -240
Over/Under: 7.5
Based on the Twins' MLB-leading offense since the All-Star break, and given that the Twins emerged from a half-dozen-team scrum for the second AL wild card, you'd probably suspect they enter the playoffs as a hot team. In fact, the Twins' emergence from the pack resembled a horse race in which the winner didn't sprint its way to the finish, but merely slowed down less than the rest of the horses. Only a win in their meaningless season finale gave the Twins a winning record in September. They don't really enter October hot -- their competition simply imploded.
There have been roughly as many wild-card games dominated by a starting pitcher as there have been all-hands-on-deck contributions since the change in wild-card game format in 2012. The good news for the Yankees is that in either scenario, they're better equipped than the Twins. Owing to his admittedly impressive 3.32 ERA , Santana might have the potential to toss a gem, but you'd never predict it based on his skill set. In fact, it's Severino who has the better strikeout rate and walk rate, and, by a wide margin, he induces more ground balls.
On top of that, the Yankees have the better defense, albeit marginally, and the better bullpen, materially. Stripped of cluster luck, which benefited both teams' runs-scored readings, New York has an ever more superior offense than the headline numbers suggest. It's one game, so of course anything can happen (and the Twins do have the potential to create some runs on the basepaths), but the Yankees can play that game, as well.
New York is a big favorite, as all of these factors are incorporated in the inflated price, but it's not going to scare me off tonight. I've got the Yankees winning this game close to 75 percent of the time, largely due to their huge bullpen advantage. There'll be other games this postseason that will register as stronger plays for sure, but by my numbers, there's still enough edge to make the Judge-led Bombers the play Tuesday night.
ESPN Chalk pick: New York -240
