2017-18 NHL betting guide
Ben Arledge
ESPN INSIDER
10/3/17
Congratulations hockey fans, you made it through the long summer offseason. As the season begins Wednesday, now is the time to place value bets for the upcoming season. Here is a look at some of the best bets for the 2017-18 NHL season.
Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Oct. 2.
Stanley Cup
Pittsburgh Penguins (7-1): It is to no one's surprise that the Penguins enter the 2017-18 season as the Stanley Cup favorite, fresh off of back-to-back titles. They are probably the best team in the league once again, and they are my pick to win it all for a third straight season. Sidney Crosby netted 44 goals and recorded 89 points last season, and five other players reached the 40-point mark. The forward depth of the Pens is astounding: Jake Guentzel and Conor Sheary bring youth to Pittsburgh, as Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel are all now 30 or older. Kris Letang is once again healthy, joining Olli Maatta and Justin Schultz to shore up the defense, and Matt Murray posted an outstanding .923 save percentage in his first full campaign. This team is still very much smack in the middle of Cup consideration, and I like their 7-1 odds at this point in the season.
Edmonton Oilers (8-1): The Oilers are no joke, and their Stanley Cup potential goes beyond just having Connor McDavid centering the first line. Of course, having a 20-year-old bona fide superstar with a 100-point season already under his belt puts any team in the conversation, but Edmonton is a well-coached team with depth up front and an underrated goaltender in Cam Talbot (42 wins, .919 save percentage last season). Leon Draisaitl scored 29 times last year, and former fifth-overall pick Ryan Strome comes to the Oilers this year, adding another offensive option. Losing Andrej Sekera on defense is a blow, but coach Todd McLellan will lean on Kris Russell, Darnell Nurse, Adam Larsson and Eric Gryba to provide Talbot with support. Edmonton took the Anaheim Ducks to Game 7 in the second round in the spring, and they are poised for a deeper run this year. Those 8-1 odds aren't bad for this group.
Chicago Blackhawks (12-1): When was the last time you saw odds on Chicago winning the Stanley Cup this low? Yes, they were swept in the opening round by the Nashville Predators, but 12-1? Really? Patrick Kane, who tallied 106 points last year, loses his two-year linemate Artemi Panarin, but Jonathan Toews regains his former winger Brandon Saad. Elsewhere upfront, rookie Alex Debrincat has the potential to light the lamp, and Richard Panik will look to build on his 22-goal arrival party of last season. Corey Crawford's numbers slipped a bit, but he is still a high-caliber goaltender, and he will play behind Duncan Keith. Chicago isn't going anywhere.
Dallas Stars (12-1): Concerned that the Stars didn't even make the playoffs last season? You shouldn't be. Dallas posted just 79 points in the standings in 2016-17, but it enters this year as a legitimate threat out of the West. Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Jason Spezza gain Alexander Radulov and Martin Hanzal up front, making this offense one of the most explosive in the league. Defense has long been the Stars' problem, but the hiring of defensive-minded Ken Hitchcock and the additions of goaltender Ben Bishop and defenseman Marc Methot could turn Dallas into one of the more well-rounded teams in the NHL. I like the 12-1 odds to win the Cup, but the over on 97.5 points is also worth a good look, as this Dallas team is likely to be right near the top, if not at the top, of the Central Division.
Columbus Blue Jackets (25-1): Las Vegas appears to be of the mindset that last year was a fluke for the young Columbus Blue Jackets. I can't say I agree. Victims of the NHL's revised playoff format, Columbus had to face Pittsburgh in the opening round of the playoffs and was promptly bounced to the golf course, but this was one of the better teams in the entire league last year. Cam Atkinson emerged as a pure scorer, tallying 35 goals, while Alexander Wennberg and Nick Foligno both eclipsed the 50-point mark. Columbus will also add Panarin, who has yet to score fewer than 30 goals in a season. Defensively, the Jackets boast the young talent of Zach Werenski, Ryan Murray and Seth Jones, and Vezina winner Sergei Bobrovsky will again tend the net. This is the best value of the legitimate Stanley Cup threats for 2017-18 at 25-1, and I also like the Blue Jackets to win the Metropolitan Division at 5-1 and the over on 96.5 season points.
Longshots
Calgary Flames (40-1): This is a value bet, and one that has come into play each of the last few seasons. At 40-1, Calgary is perhaps worth a dart throw. It was a playoff team last season, and it returns much talent at forward. Johnny Gaudreau led the team with 61 points last season in just 72 games, and he is joined by 27-goal scorer Sean Monahan, Mikael Backlund, Michael Frolik and 19-year-old Matthew Thachuk. Defensively, Travis Harmonic is added to a group that includes Mark Giordano, Dougie Hamilton, T.J. Brodie and Michael Stone. The Flames will look to Mike Smith to end their ongoing search for a goaltender, and he certainly has the talent to do so.
Philadelphia Flyers (60-1): Philly will be without Brayden Schenn, but it still has tremendous talent all over this roster. Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek combined for 119 points last year, and Wayne Simmonds scored 31 goals. Shayne Gostisbehere and Ivan Provorov will both be exciting to watch on defense, and Brian Elliott settles on his third team in three years in goal. At 60-1, this is a Hail Mary, but it is probably the best chance on teams of 60-1 or worse odds. I also like the over on 90.5 total points.
Division
Toronto Maple Leafs (+250): I don't think the Maple Leafs are ready to win a Stanley Cup, but they should be considered real threats to win the Atlantic Division at this point. Auston Matthews scored 40 in his first season, and fellow rookies William Nylander and Mitch Marner each recorded 61 points. Nazem Kadri quietly put up 32 goals, while James van Riemsdyk found the net 29 times. Did I even mention yet that Toronto added Patrick Marleau? This team can certainly score. The defense is still a work in progress, highlighted by Morgan Rielly, and goalie Frederik Andersen was adequate enough last year, but I expect big years from both of those players. I think Mike Babcock might be this year's John Adams Award winner, as he turns this Leafs team into a contender. In addition to the division, I'd also look at the over for 97.5 points this year.
Playoffs
Arizona Coyotes (+550 Yes): The 'Yotes as a team posted just 70 points last year, and only two forwards broke the 35-point mark for the season -- not exactly the making of a playoff-bound team. However, Arizona has done a nice job rebuilding its roster and might be in good shape to play late-April hockey. The Coyotes acquired Derek Stepan and goaltender Antti Raanta from the New York Rangers, and they added defensemen Niklas Hjalmarsson and Alex Goligoski to join Oliver Ekman-Larsson on the point. Max Domi has shown plenty of potential, and now Arizona looks to add even more youth with Dylan Strome and Clayton Keller appearing ready for the NHL. In the Pacific Division, the Ducks and San Jose Sharks are aging, leaving the door open for a team to compete for a backdoor playoff spot. It is most likely a longshot, but Arizona could definitely make the playoffs this season. The over for 76.5 points might also be worth it.
Carolina Hurricanes (+130 No): I actually really like what the Hurricanes have done, and my guess is they are very near a return to the playoffs. Just not now. Scott Darling will certainly be an upgrade in goal, and the defense is littered with young talent with Justin Faulk, Noah Hanafin, Brett Pesce and Jaccob Slavin. The offense includes Jeff Skinner, Justin Williams, Elias Lindholm and Sebastian Aho, as well. However, this team is probably still a year away, especially when you consider Carolina would have to navigate a powerhouse division. This team is improving, but it just isn't quite there.
Season points
Anaheim Ducks (under 104.5): Anaheim has long been a Stanley Cup contender, and they will be in the mix again this year, but reaching 105 points will be very difficult. Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry are both 32 years old now, and Ryan Kesler is expected to miss the first half of the season. Sure, Rickard Rakell broke onto the scene with 33 goals, and John Gibson is one of the best young goaltenders in the NHL, but Anaheim is pushing up against the boundaries of their contention window. While it is still a playoff team, I think mid-to-high 90s is a more likely point total.
Montreal Canadiens (over 98.5): Montreal reached 103 points last season, and it should be in the same ballpark once again this season. Carey Price is the world's best goaltender, and Max Pacioretty, Jonathan Drouin and Alex Galchenyuk will provide plenty of offense. I lean with the over here, as the Canadiens will battle with Toronto and the Tampa Bay Lightning for the Atlantic Division playoff spots.
New York Islanders (under 89.5): Look, any team with John Tavares is going to be competitive, and I'm excited to see what Joshua Ho-Sang brings to the table this year, but I'm concerned this team could be left behind a bit in the Metropolitan Division. Goaltending is still very much a question, at least in the short-term, and the defense just lost Harmonic. I'll go with the under for the Islanders.
Ben Arledge
ESPN INSIDER
10/3/17
Congratulations hockey fans, you made it through the long summer offseason. As the season begins Wednesday, now is the time to place value bets for the upcoming season. Here is a look at some of the best bets for the 2017-18 NHL season.
Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Oct. 2.
Stanley Cup
Pittsburgh Penguins (7-1): It is to no one's surprise that the Penguins enter the 2017-18 season as the Stanley Cup favorite, fresh off of back-to-back titles. They are probably the best team in the league once again, and they are my pick to win it all for a third straight season. Sidney Crosby netted 44 goals and recorded 89 points last season, and five other players reached the 40-point mark. The forward depth of the Pens is astounding: Jake Guentzel and Conor Sheary bring youth to Pittsburgh, as Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel are all now 30 or older. Kris Letang is once again healthy, joining Olli Maatta and Justin Schultz to shore up the defense, and Matt Murray posted an outstanding .923 save percentage in his first full campaign. This team is still very much smack in the middle of Cup consideration, and I like their 7-1 odds at this point in the season.
Edmonton Oilers (8-1): The Oilers are no joke, and their Stanley Cup potential goes beyond just having Connor McDavid centering the first line. Of course, having a 20-year-old bona fide superstar with a 100-point season already under his belt puts any team in the conversation, but Edmonton is a well-coached team with depth up front and an underrated goaltender in Cam Talbot (42 wins, .919 save percentage last season). Leon Draisaitl scored 29 times last year, and former fifth-overall pick Ryan Strome comes to the Oilers this year, adding another offensive option. Losing Andrej Sekera on defense is a blow, but coach Todd McLellan will lean on Kris Russell, Darnell Nurse, Adam Larsson and Eric Gryba to provide Talbot with support. Edmonton took the Anaheim Ducks to Game 7 in the second round in the spring, and they are poised for a deeper run this year. Those 8-1 odds aren't bad for this group.
Chicago Blackhawks (12-1): When was the last time you saw odds on Chicago winning the Stanley Cup this low? Yes, they were swept in the opening round by the Nashville Predators, but 12-1? Really? Patrick Kane, who tallied 106 points last year, loses his two-year linemate Artemi Panarin, but Jonathan Toews regains his former winger Brandon Saad. Elsewhere upfront, rookie Alex Debrincat has the potential to light the lamp, and Richard Panik will look to build on his 22-goal arrival party of last season. Corey Crawford's numbers slipped a bit, but he is still a high-caliber goaltender, and he will play behind Duncan Keith. Chicago isn't going anywhere.
Dallas Stars (12-1): Concerned that the Stars didn't even make the playoffs last season? You shouldn't be. Dallas posted just 79 points in the standings in 2016-17, but it enters this year as a legitimate threat out of the West. Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Jason Spezza gain Alexander Radulov and Martin Hanzal up front, making this offense one of the most explosive in the league. Defense has long been the Stars' problem, but the hiring of defensive-minded Ken Hitchcock and the additions of goaltender Ben Bishop and defenseman Marc Methot could turn Dallas into one of the more well-rounded teams in the NHL. I like the 12-1 odds to win the Cup, but the over on 97.5 points is also worth a good look, as this Dallas team is likely to be right near the top, if not at the top, of the Central Division.
Columbus Blue Jackets (25-1): Las Vegas appears to be of the mindset that last year was a fluke for the young Columbus Blue Jackets. I can't say I agree. Victims of the NHL's revised playoff format, Columbus had to face Pittsburgh in the opening round of the playoffs and was promptly bounced to the golf course, but this was one of the better teams in the entire league last year. Cam Atkinson emerged as a pure scorer, tallying 35 goals, while Alexander Wennberg and Nick Foligno both eclipsed the 50-point mark. Columbus will also add Panarin, who has yet to score fewer than 30 goals in a season. Defensively, the Jackets boast the young talent of Zach Werenski, Ryan Murray and Seth Jones, and Vezina winner Sergei Bobrovsky will again tend the net. This is the best value of the legitimate Stanley Cup threats for 2017-18 at 25-1, and I also like the Blue Jackets to win the Metropolitan Division at 5-1 and the over on 96.5 season points.
Longshots
Calgary Flames (40-1): This is a value bet, and one that has come into play each of the last few seasons. At 40-1, Calgary is perhaps worth a dart throw. It was a playoff team last season, and it returns much talent at forward. Johnny Gaudreau led the team with 61 points last season in just 72 games, and he is joined by 27-goal scorer Sean Monahan, Mikael Backlund, Michael Frolik and 19-year-old Matthew Thachuk. Defensively, Travis Harmonic is added to a group that includes Mark Giordano, Dougie Hamilton, T.J. Brodie and Michael Stone. The Flames will look to Mike Smith to end their ongoing search for a goaltender, and he certainly has the talent to do so.
Philadelphia Flyers (60-1): Philly will be without Brayden Schenn, but it still has tremendous talent all over this roster. Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek combined for 119 points last year, and Wayne Simmonds scored 31 goals. Shayne Gostisbehere and Ivan Provorov will both be exciting to watch on defense, and Brian Elliott settles on his third team in three years in goal. At 60-1, this is a Hail Mary, but it is probably the best chance on teams of 60-1 or worse odds. I also like the over on 90.5 total points.
Division
Toronto Maple Leafs (+250): I don't think the Maple Leafs are ready to win a Stanley Cup, but they should be considered real threats to win the Atlantic Division at this point. Auston Matthews scored 40 in his first season, and fellow rookies William Nylander and Mitch Marner each recorded 61 points. Nazem Kadri quietly put up 32 goals, while James van Riemsdyk found the net 29 times. Did I even mention yet that Toronto added Patrick Marleau? This team can certainly score. The defense is still a work in progress, highlighted by Morgan Rielly, and goalie Frederik Andersen was adequate enough last year, but I expect big years from both of those players. I think Mike Babcock might be this year's John Adams Award winner, as he turns this Leafs team into a contender. In addition to the division, I'd also look at the over for 97.5 points this year.
Playoffs
Arizona Coyotes (+550 Yes): The 'Yotes as a team posted just 70 points last year, and only two forwards broke the 35-point mark for the season -- not exactly the making of a playoff-bound team. However, Arizona has done a nice job rebuilding its roster and might be in good shape to play late-April hockey. The Coyotes acquired Derek Stepan and goaltender Antti Raanta from the New York Rangers, and they added defensemen Niklas Hjalmarsson and Alex Goligoski to join Oliver Ekman-Larsson on the point. Max Domi has shown plenty of potential, and now Arizona looks to add even more youth with Dylan Strome and Clayton Keller appearing ready for the NHL. In the Pacific Division, the Ducks and San Jose Sharks are aging, leaving the door open for a team to compete for a backdoor playoff spot. It is most likely a longshot, but Arizona could definitely make the playoffs this season. The over for 76.5 points might also be worth it.
Carolina Hurricanes (+130 No): I actually really like what the Hurricanes have done, and my guess is they are very near a return to the playoffs. Just not now. Scott Darling will certainly be an upgrade in goal, and the defense is littered with young talent with Justin Faulk, Noah Hanafin, Brett Pesce and Jaccob Slavin. The offense includes Jeff Skinner, Justin Williams, Elias Lindholm and Sebastian Aho, as well. However, this team is probably still a year away, especially when you consider Carolina would have to navigate a powerhouse division. This team is improving, but it just isn't quite there.
Season points
Anaheim Ducks (under 104.5): Anaheim has long been a Stanley Cup contender, and they will be in the mix again this year, but reaching 105 points will be very difficult. Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry are both 32 years old now, and Ryan Kesler is expected to miss the first half of the season. Sure, Rickard Rakell broke onto the scene with 33 goals, and John Gibson is one of the best young goaltenders in the NHL, but Anaheim is pushing up against the boundaries of their contention window. While it is still a playoff team, I think mid-to-high 90s is a more likely point total.
Montreal Canadiens (over 98.5): Montreal reached 103 points last season, and it should be in the same ballpark once again this season. Carey Price is the world's best goaltender, and Max Pacioretty, Jonathan Drouin and Alex Galchenyuk will provide plenty of offense. I lean with the over here, as the Canadiens will battle with Toronto and the Tampa Bay Lightning for the Atlantic Division playoff spots.
New York Islanders (under 89.5): Look, any team with John Tavares is going to be competitive, and I'm excited to see what Joshua Ho-Sang brings to the table this year, but I'm concerned this team could be left behind a bit in the Metropolitan Division. Goaltending is still very much a question, at least in the short-term, and the defense just lost Harmonic. I'll go with the under for the Islanders.
