How to bet Rockies-Diamondbacks NL wild-card game
Joe Peta
ESPN INSIDER
10/4/17
Our preview of Tuesday's American League wild-card game suggested that neither starter had the pedigree of a postseason ace capable of matching the gems we've seen in this round in prior years, and neither reached the third inning. In the National League, the last three NL wild-card games have featured complete-game shutouts.
Despite that streak, complete-game shutouts are something of a baseball anachronism. Still, if you were nominating a candidate between Wednesday's starting pitchers in the Colorado Rockies-Arizona Diamondbacks NL wild-card game, you'd have to pick D-backs starter Zack Greinke. No stranger to the playoffs, Greinke has authored five shutouts in his career and has made nine playoff starts for the Brewers and Dodgers with a playoff ERA of 3.55, right in line with his lifetime ERA of 3.40.
Rockies starter Jon Gray doesn't have that pedigree. He's never won a Cy Young Award as Greinke has, and Gray has tossed just one shutout in his career (his only complete game). Still, he gets the nod for this game as the Rockies' nominal ace (despite making just 20 starts) thanks to an ERA of 3.67. The most interesting part of Gray's success this year is his rather bizarre home/road splits. Gray had an ERA of 4.06 on the road and a 3.13 ERA in Coors Field, baseball's most favorable environment for hitters.
Colorado stumbled a bit down the stretch, introducing the possibility of getting caught in the wild-card race, but for most of the season, this wild-card matchup seemed preordained. Arizona enjoyed an 11-8 edge in head-to-head games, along with a far superior run differential over the season, plus-153 to Colorado's plus-67.
It's been a while since the fan bases of either squad have tasted postseason success. The Rockies are looking to reprise their "Rocktober" success of 2007 when they swept the NL playoff slate, including a wild-card-equivalent Game 163 play-in contest en route to their only World Series appearance to date. The Diamondbacks may have the more prestigious flag flying, having won a World Series, but since that magic night in November 2001, Arizona has won just one playoff series, in 2007.
I still have a shot at a perfect bracket this year, owing to the Yankees' victory over the Twins on Tuesday night. Let's get to Wednesday's pick.
Colorado Rockies (Gray) +160 at Arizona Diamondbacks (Greinke) -170
Over/Under: 8.5 (O -120)
Turning straight to the numbers, no matter how aggressively I skew certain assumptions toward Arizona, such as prorating J.D. Martinez's production in 62 games over the entire season, or assuming that Jonathan Lucroy is no better than the roughly league-average hitting catcher he exhibited this year, I can't get Arizona above a roughly 60 percent win expectancy. Once I dig a little further into the numbers, I can make a real case that the Diamondbacks' edge in this matchup erodes even further.
Everyone assails the Rockies for the fact that they hit so much better at home than on the road, but the Diamondbacks can be tagged with that same label. The two teams faced nearly identical schedules this year, and on the road, Arizona outscored the Rockies by only 19 runs. It's an edge, to be sure, but not as large as the line implies. Same with Greinke and Gray. Yes, Greinke has had a better career, but if you look at just the second half of 2017, it's a lot closer than you might expect.
I won't get too detailed in platoon splits, but here's a factor Arizona's win expectancy is very sensitive to: If Gray holds the D-backs' Jake Lamb to 0-for-2 or 0-for-3 before turning things over to a left-handed reliever, the Rockies have gained a meaningful edge. At that point, you'd have two lineups that profile very similarly against right-handed starters. I'm a bit surprised by this conclusion because I think the Diamondbacks are potentially a much tougher NLDS opponent for the Dodgers than the Rockies, but in this matchup, at this price, the call here is Colorado.
If that makes you nervous, and if that nervousness grows should the Rockies face a late-inning, one- or two-run deficit, you can take solace in this possible development -- Fernando Rodney may be warming up in the Diamondbacks' bullpen.
ESPN Chalk pick: Colorado +160
Joe Peta
ESPN INSIDER
10/4/17
Our preview of Tuesday's American League wild-card game suggested that neither starter had the pedigree of a postseason ace capable of matching the gems we've seen in this round in prior years, and neither reached the third inning. In the National League, the last three NL wild-card games have featured complete-game shutouts.
Despite that streak, complete-game shutouts are something of a baseball anachronism. Still, if you were nominating a candidate between Wednesday's starting pitchers in the Colorado Rockies-Arizona Diamondbacks NL wild-card game, you'd have to pick D-backs starter Zack Greinke. No stranger to the playoffs, Greinke has authored five shutouts in his career and has made nine playoff starts for the Brewers and Dodgers with a playoff ERA of 3.55, right in line with his lifetime ERA of 3.40.
Rockies starter Jon Gray doesn't have that pedigree. He's never won a Cy Young Award as Greinke has, and Gray has tossed just one shutout in his career (his only complete game). Still, he gets the nod for this game as the Rockies' nominal ace (despite making just 20 starts) thanks to an ERA of 3.67. The most interesting part of Gray's success this year is his rather bizarre home/road splits. Gray had an ERA of 4.06 on the road and a 3.13 ERA in Coors Field, baseball's most favorable environment for hitters.
Colorado stumbled a bit down the stretch, introducing the possibility of getting caught in the wild-card race, but for most of the season, this wild-card matchup seemed preordained. Arizona enjoyed an 11-8 edge in head-to-head games, along with a far superior run differential over the season, plus-153 to Colorado's plus-67.
It's been a while since the fan bases of either squad have tasted postseason success. The Rockies are looking to reprise their "Rocktober" success of 2007 when they swept the NL playoff slate, including a wild-card-equivalent Game 163 play-in contest en route to their only World Series appearance to date. The Diamondbacks may have the more prestigious flag flying, having won a World Series, but since that magic night in November 2001, Arizona has won just one playoff series, in 2007.
I still have a shot at a perfect bracket this year, owing to the Yankees' victory over the Twins on Tuesday night. Let's get to Wednesday's pick.
Colorado Rockies (Gray) +160 at Arizona Diamondbacks (Greinke) -170
Over/Under: 8.5 (O -120)
Turning straight to the numbers, no matter how aggressively I skew certain assumptions toward Arizona, such as prorating J.D. Martinez's production in 62 games over the entire season, or assuming that Jonathan Lucroy is no better than the roughly league-average hitting catcher he exhibited this year, I can't get Arizona above a roughly 60 percent win expectancy. Once I dig a little further into the numbers, I can make a real case that the Diamondbacks' edge in this matchup erodes even further.
Everyone assails the Rockies for the fact that they hit so much better at home than on the road, but the Diamondbacks can be tagged with that same label. The two teams faced nearly identical schedules this year, and on the road, Arizona outscored the Rockies by only 19 runs. It's an edge, to be sure, but not as large as the line implies. Same with Greinke and Gray. Yes, Greinke has had a better career, but if you look at just the second half of 2017, it's a lot closer than you might expect.
I won't get too detailed in platoon splits, but here's a factor Arizona's win expectancy is very sensitive to: If Gray holds the D-backs' Jake Lamb to 0-for-2 or 0-for-3 before turning things over to a left-handed reliever, the Rockies have gained a meaningful edge. At that point, you'd have two lineups that profile very similarly against right-handed starters. I'm a bit surprised by this conclusion because I think the Diamondbacks are potentially a much tougher NLDS opponent for the Dodgers than the Rockies, but in this matchup, at this price, the call here is Colorado.
If that makes you nervous, and if that nervousness grows should the Rockies face a late-inning, one- or two-run deficit, you can take solace in this possible development -- Fernando Rodney may be warming up in the Diamondbacks' bullpen.
ESPN Chalk pick: Colorado +160
