How to bet Yankees-Indians ALDS
Joe Peta
ESPN INSIDER
10/5/17
The nerds won... again. Despite making inroads in front-office decisions like roster construction, player evaluation and the concept of paying for "present skills and not past results," when it came to in-game decisions made in the dugout, the sabermetric set often lost out to "real baseball men."
On Tuesday night, however, Joe Girardi adopted the #bullpenning strategy that many analytic types, emphatically led by MLB TV's Brian Kenny earlier this week, implored him to implement. New York relievers got 26 of the team's 27 outs and, as a result, now find themselves matched up against the defending American League pennant winners in the American League Division Series.
Cleveland is no stranger to heavy bullpen reliance in the postseason, as manager Terry Francona leveraged his strong pen last year (led by Andrew Miller) to replace innings normally taken by starters after injuries decimated his rotation. Relievers pitched 47 percent of innings for Cleveland during the 2016 postseason.
However, it's not clear as to whether or not Francona will take that approach again this year with a healthy rotation. After all, Cleveland starters accounted for 66 percent of the team's innings pitched this regular season, the second-highest total in the majors.
Of course, with a rotation as effective as Cleveland's was this year, a "light touch" with the bullpen would be completely understandable. The Tribe's starters had an AL-best ERA of 3.52. But they'll run out Trevor Bauer -- and not Cy Young favorite Corey Kluber -- to the mound for Game 1, where he'll be opposed by New York's trade deadline pick-up Sonny Gray.
Improbably, that's a matchup that some think favors the Yankees, something you don't expect to even consider in the opening game of a divisional series where one team is coming of a wild-card game and the other has the presumptive Cy Young Award winner waiting in the wings. Should the Yankees win Game 1, there will enormous pressure on Kluber in Game 2 -- and on Francona to explain himself.
After whiffing on last night on the Rockies, while backing a different starting pitcher named Gray, I suppose I've got some explaining to do. That makes me 1-1 (+0.0 units) entering divisional series play.
New York Yankees (+160 for the series) vs. Cleveland Indians (-190 for the series)
Game 1 odds: New York Yankees (Gray) +129 @ Cleveland Indians (Bauer) -140
Game 1 over/under: 8 1/2 (U -120)
I think the common perception for this series is that the Yankees have the better lineup, the Indians have the better rotation and both teams have tremendous bullpens. That leads to some Yankees bullishness, especially at juicy underdog odds.
The Yankees led the majors in home runs but, did you know that the Indians had the higher team slugging percentage and, even more shockingly, the higher isolated slugging reading? The difference was minimal in both cases, but that statement is no less true. In fact, these teams had identical batting and on-base averages, yet the Yankees scored 40 more runs. Why? Longtime readers know where I'm going with this -- "cluster luck."
Two other factors help the Indians as well. Cleveland is the only team to make the playoffs in the American League while sporting an above-average defense. Compared to the Yankees, the Indians' ability to turn batted balls into outs and erase existing baserunners was almost certainly worth a couple of wins during the course of the regular season. Like a fine wine, their defense pairs perfectly with a pitching staff that has the highest strikeout rate in the league.
Despite Gray's impressive 3.55 ERA this year -- more than a half-run better than Bauer's 4.19 -- from a skills perspective, it's Bauer who was the better pitcher in 2017, based on his higher strikeout rate and mildly-lower walk rate. Gray's work with the Yankees in 11 starts was particularly troubling, as his ground ball rate plummeted. With a bullpen that took on a huge workload just 48 hours ago, I'm firmly on the Indians in Game 1 and, by extension, for the series as a whole with Kluber teed up for Game 2.
ESPN Chalk pick: Cleveland -162 for the series, and Cleveland -128 in Game 1
Joe Peta
ESPN INSIDER
10/5/17
The nerds won... again. Despite making inroads in front-office decisions like roster construction, player evaluation and the concept of paying for "present skills and not past results," when it came to in-game decisions made in the dugout, the sabermetric set often lost out to "real baseball men."
On Tuesday night, however, Joe Girardi adopted the #bullpenning strategy that many analytic types, emphatically led by MLB TV's Brian Kenny earlier this week, implored him to implement. New York relievers got 26 of the team's 27 outs and, as a result, now find themselves matched up against the defending American League pennant winners in the American League Division Series.
Cleveland is no stranger to heavy bullpen reliance in the postseason, as manager Terry Francona leveraged his strong pen last year (led by Andrew Miller) to replace innings normally taken by starters after injuries decimated his rotation. Relievers pitched 47 percent of innings for Cleveland during the 2016 postseason.
However, it's not clear as to whether or not Francona will take that approach again this year with a healthy rotation. After all, Cleveland starters accounted for 66 percent of the team's innings pitched this regular season, the second-highest total in the majors.
Of course, with a rotation as effective as Cleveland's was this year, a "light touch" with the bullpen would be completely understandable. The Tribe's starters had an AL-best ERA of 3.52. But they'll run out Trevor Bauer -- and not Cy Young favorite Corey Kluber -- to the mound for Game 1, where he'll be opposed by New York's trade deadline pick-up Sonny Gray.
Improbably, that's a matchup that some think favors the Yankees, something you don't expect to even consider in the opening game of a divisional series where one team is coming of a wild-card game and the other has the presumptive Cy Young Award winner waiting in the wings. Should the Yankees win Game 1, there will enormous pressure on Kluber in Game 2 -- and on Francona to explain himself.
After whiffing on last night on the Rockies, while backing a different starting pitcher named Gray, I suppose I've got some explaining to do. That makes me 1-1 (+0.0 units) entering divisional series play.
New York Yankees (+160 for the series) vs. Cleveland Indians (-190 for the series)
Game 1 odds: New York Yankees (Gray) +129 @ Cleveland Indians (Bauer) -140
Game 1 over/under: 8 1/2 (U -120)
I think the common perception for this series is that the Yankees have the better lineup, the Indians have the better rotation and both teams have tremendous bullpens. That leads to some Yankees bullishness, especially at juicy underdog odds.
The Yankees led the majors in home runs but, did you know that the Indians had the higher team slugging percentage and, even more shockingly, the higher isolated slugging reading? The difference was minimal in both cases, but that statement is no less true. In fact, these teams had identical batting and on-base averages, yet the Yankees scored 40 more runs. Why? Longtime readers know where I'm going with this -- "cluster luck."
Two other factors help the Indians as well. Cleveland is the only team to make the playoffs in the American League while sporting an above-average defense. Compared to the Yankees, the Indians' ability to turn batted balls into outs and erase existing baserunners was almost certainly worth a couple of wins during the course of the regular season. Like a fine wine, their defense pairs perfectly with a pitching staff that has the highest strikeout rate in the league.
Despite Gray's impressive 3.55 ERA this year -- more than a half-run better than Bauer's 4.19 -- from a skills perspective, it's Bauer who was the better pitcher in 2017, based on his higher strikeout rate and mildly-lower walk rate. Gray's work with the Yankees in 11 starts was particularly troubling, as his ground ball rate plummeted. With a bullpen that took on a huge workload just 48 hours ago, I'm firmly on the Indians in Game 1 and, by extension, for the series as a whole with Kluber teed up for Game 2.
ESPN Chalk pick: Cleveland -162 for the series, and Cleveland -128 in Game 1
