Best CFB Week 6 bets
CFB VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN I
10/5/17
Our experts are back with their Week 6 college football picks. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica will pick two common games and as many wild-card games as they choose. It's all here in one file for your perusing pleasure.
Here are the best bets for Week 6 of the college football season.
ATS record:
Phil Steele: 7-1 in Week 5 (18-22 season)
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin: 2-3 in Week 5 (13-10-1 season)
Chris Fallica: 2-6 in Week 5 (18-20 season)
Note: Lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
Common games
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-26.5) at Texas A&M Aggies
Steele: Alabama takes care of business on the road in the SEC and has won 10 of the past 11 by more than Vegas expected. Texas A&M has struggled all season, and Alabama just blew out two SEC teams by an average of 61 points per game. I have sided with Alabama each of the past three years in this series, but this is just one of those games where the spread is inflated well beyond where it should be, and Vegas knows the Tide followers will pay the extra price. Texas A&M has 20 sacks and is allowing just 96 rushing yards per game (3.1 yards per carry). Additionally, Aggie quarterback Kellen Mond is mobile, which has given the Crimson Tide problems in the past. Texas A&M would be undefeated right now if not for that blown 44-10 third-quarter lead over UCLA, and the preseason line on this game was just 10. Finally, Texas A&M is 8-2-1 as a double-digit home 'dog the past 40 years and 3-1 ATS as a 21-point or higher home 'dog in that span.
ATS pick: Texas A&M
Score: Alabama 36, Texas A&M 16
Coughlin: There has not been a better signing or hire in college football this year than Nick Saban's hiring of offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. The ability Daboll has shown to change formations with different personnel, along with the different ways he uses his quarterback in and out of the pocket, has been so fun to watch. More importantly, it has been astoundingly effective, giving defensive coordinators nightmares. Aggies defensive coordinator John Chavis, who has called plenty of defenses in his time, might not have seen a system as versatile as that of the Tide. Bama has destroyed Vanderbilt and Ole Miss by a combined score of 125-3 in arguably the two most dominant performances of the Nick Saban era. Although it seems too easy to say Alabama will roll, it will be a night game in College Station, so I'll just say both teams will score more points than the expected outcome. Take the over.
Pick: Over 53.5 points
Score: Alabama 41, Texas A&M 17
Fallica: Alabama has some injuries mounting, which could be a concern long-term, and Christian Kirk is the type of player who maybe pops a big play and keeps the Aggies hanging around. I don't know how many stops A&M will get, but 26.5 is a big number. Yes, Alabama has throttled two SEC opponents thus far, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Texas A&M stay within that number this week, as the Aggies are the most talented team Bama has faced since the season opener. Because of the fashion of the loss to UCLA, it feels like A&M is 2-3 rather than 4-1, so I think the number is a bit inflated.
ATS pick: Texas A&M
Score: Alabama 41, Texas A&M 21
No. 13 Miami Hurricanes (-3) at Florida State Seminoles
Steele: Florida State has won seven straight over the in-state rivals. Both teams had two full weeks off, and it took each a while to get back into gear. Florida State lost at home to North Carolina State and beat Wake Forest by only a touchdown on the road. Florida State's offense has struggled behind a leaky offensive line but has faced three top-25 defensive lines. Miami has rolled up 515 yards per game, but quarterback Malik Rosier has yet to face a dominating defense like the one Florida State possesses. Florida State has taken on my No. 1 toughest schedule overall, and Miami has faced just my No. 95 toughest slate. Florida State has been a home 'dog exactly once in the past six years, and it covered that game. Miami doesn't just have to win this game. The Canes have to win by more than three, so I'm taking the points with the battle-tested Seminoles.
ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Florida State 21, Miami 20
Coughlin: I will just say this about Miami: It's time. The Hurricanes have suffered seven straight losses to the Seminoles, and the Canes are the better football team. The defense is still feeling things out, as they are a couple games behind due to Hurricane Irma, but they are fresh off their best effort of the season, holding Duke to six points in Durham in a battle of the unbeatens. Miami enters the game protecting the ball as well as anyone in the nation, ranking second nationally with only two turnovers in three games. Rosier, a first-year starter as a junior, is averaging 273 passing yards per game, with eight touchdowns and only two interceptions. Rosier now has receiver Ahmmon Richards back as his No. 1 target, and you know the U will rely on stud running back Mark Walton, who has surpassed 400 rushing yards on the season. I trust Mark Richt in this spot and will lay the points, even though I would play the money line if possible to not have to worry about the points, seeing how intense this game will be.
ATS pick: Miami
Score: Miami 24, Florida State 19
Fallica: I'm staying far away from the side in this one, as this game opened with FSU as a favorite and has swung to Miami favored in the area of a field goal. It has been coulda, woulda, shoulda for Miami the past three years in this one, as the Canes blew a double-digit lead last season, blew a fourth-quarter lead in Tallahassee in 2015 and blew a double-digit, fourth-quarter lead in 2014. Yes, Florida State's offense is statistically the worst in the ACC, and the offensive line has struggled mightily, but maybe the comeback last week at Wake Forest will turn the Noles' season around. But if it doesn't, this will be the year Miami ends the losing streak against its rival. Still, I'm more certain this will be a lower-scoring game with defenses controlling the game, especially with the prospect of bad weather.
Pick: Under 48 points
Stanford Cardinal (-5.5) at No. 20 Utah Utes
Steele: Utah has won three in a row in the series, with the most recent meeting coming in 2014. The Utes are fresh off a bye, while Stanford is on its third road game in four weeks and fifth straight tough game. Utah got very banged up in its previous game and might be without quarterback Tyler Huntley and star defensive lineman Kylie Fitts. Stanford might be giving redshirt freshman K.J. Costello his first road start, while Utah has Troy Williams, who started all 13 games last season. Bryce Love just topped 300 yards versus the Arizona State defense but now faces a defense that allows just 86 rushing yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry. This is not your typical Stanford defense, as they're giving up 445 yards per game and 32 yards more than their opponent's average.
ATS pick: Utah
Score: Utah 28, Stanford 27
Coughlin: This is an absolute brutal spot for the Cardinal. Utah is home off a bye week, and the game is at night. Stanford's quarterback situation is not set in stone, as Keller Chryst could be back under center for the Stanford offense after Costello helped the team win its past two games while Chryst was injured. Utah watched Bryce Love run up and down the field on ASU last week for a Stanford school-record 301 yards. Whether its Chryst or Costello under center for the Cardinal, I don't see the Cardinal being able to consistently move the chains in a hostile environment. Add that Kyle Whittingham is 2-0 versus David Shaw and has beaten two way better offenses than this Cardinal outfit, and I say the Utes remain undefeated.
ATS pick: Utah
Score: Utah 24, Stanford 23
Thursday games
No. 17 Louisville Cardinals (-3.5) at No. 24 NC State Wolfpack
Fallica: I'm surprised Louisville is favored here, and FPI agrees with me, as it has the line completely flipped with the Wolfpack as four-point favorites. The Pack were predictably sluggish last week against Syracuse, but I expect a much sharper, focused effort against the Cardinals. It was 54-13 last season, and I'm sure Dave Doeren will remind his team about that this week. Given Louisville's struggles on the offensive line and the injury to Lamar Jackson's top target, Jaylen Smith, Jackson will be even more of a one-man show on offense against that NC State defensive line. A home team getting points -- what's better than that?
ATS pick: NC State
Score: NC State 33, Louisville 31
Friday games
Boise State Broncos (-9) at BYU Cougars
Coughlin: I don't know why, but I really like BYU this week. The Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their past four home games, and they are 0-6 ATS in their past six games overall. However, Boise State hasn't shown much ability to run the football, as the Broncos come in averaging just more than 100 yards on the ground. The BYU defense is giving up only 212 yards per game through the air, so the Cougars should be able to make the Broncos one-dimensional on offense. Boise State almost beat Wazzu a couple weeks ago, and BYU has been trucked by the biggest programs it has played (LSU and Wisconsin). It is not going to be a pretty game, but I will take the home team getting the points and predict an upset.
ATS pick: BYU
Score: BYU 20, Boise State 19
Saturday games
No. 9 Wisconsin Badgers (-12) at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Steele: Wisconsin was home last season and needed overtime to win 23-17. The Badgers come in averaging 460 yards per game, but against the one Power 5 team they faced, Northwestern last week, they were held to 303 yards. Nebraska's defense allowed 52 points per game over the first six quarters of the season but adjusted to Bob Diaco's 3-4 scheme, and in the past 14 quarters, it is allowing just 7.7 points per game if you take away three pick-sixes. This is only the fourth time this decade that Nebraska is a home 'dog and the first time it is a double-digit home 'dog. Nebraska has won 20 consecutive home night games at Memorial Stadium.
ATS pick: Nebraska
Score: Wisconsin 23, Nebraska 17
Ole Miss Rebels at No. 12 Auburn Tigers (-21.5)
Steele: Auburn is a legitimate top-10 team, and its only loss was to powerful Clemson in Death Valley by just eight points. Its defense is holding foes to 186 yards per game below their season average, which is No. 4 in the country. Ole Miss has a depth-shy team that might be run down after getting pounded by physical Alabama 66-3 on the road last week and is now traveling again. The Rebels' defense is allowing opponents 64 yards above their season average. They are struggling to run the ball at just 74 yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry. Auburn, since facing the best defense in the country on the road, has put up 501 yards per game, and last week, it had 256 yards more than Mississippi State came in allowing.
ATS pick: Auburn
Score: Auburn 41, Ole Miss 13
Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Cavaliers (-2)
Steele: My average game grade has Duke at 97.5. That includes an impressive road win at North Carolina and a dominating win over a solid Northwestern team. Virginia has an average game grade of 85.5 and should be a 9-point 'dog according to that rating. My computer shows Duke with a 26-21 win and 384-348 yardage edge as well as the better offense and defense. Shaun Wilson (412 rushing yards, 6.1 yards per carry) and Brittain Brown (373 rush yards, 6.0 yards per carry) give Duke the rushing yard edge, with my computer forecast showing a 180-63 yard advantage.
ATS pick: Duke
Score: Duke 26, Virginia 21
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Tulane Green Wave (-4)
Steele: Tulsa just faced two option teams in New Mexico and Navy, and now it faces another for a third straight week, which is a large advantage (Tulane is fresh off a bye). Tulsa nearly knocked off Toledo on the road, losing in part to an extra point that was returned in the three-point loss. I trust that Golden Hurricane offense with quarterback Chad President and running back D'Angelo Brewer. I also love the fact that defending the option is now old hat, and Tulsa takes on the least potent option-rush attack of those three games. Tulsa is 11-1 ATS in this series.
ATS pick: Tulsa
Score: Tulsa 31, Tulane 28
Marshall Thundering Herd (-15.5) at Charlotte 49ers
Steele: In the most recent meeting between these teams at Charlotte (2015), the Thundering Herd led by 31 points until a garbage-time 49ers touchdown with 6:29 left. Marshall will be out for revenge after being upset at home last season as a two-touchdown favorite. I have used Marshall as a best bet three times this season, and since they are perfect versus the Las Vegas number, they're 3-0 in those. Charlotte is 0-12 at home versus FBS foes and 2-9-1 versus the Vegas number, and it lost to Georgia State at home by 28 points. Marshall outgained Cincinnati by only 17 yards last week, but Cincinnati had 207 of its 349 yards in the fourth quarter with the game out of reach. Charlotte fired its offensive coordinator last week and put up 30 points against FIU (led 26-7). Charlotte quarterbacks have thrown for 135 yards per game, completing just 47.9 percent with a 4-9 ratio, while Marshall has 11 sacks and a solid pass defense. I will keep riding the Herd.
ATS pick: Marshall
Score: Marshall 37, Charlotte 13
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue Boilermakers (-4)
Coughlin: I said in the preseason to take the over on Purdue's season total of 2.5 wins, and the Boilermakers have gotten off to a better than advertised start. Saturday will be a special day in West Lafayette, as the Boilermakers will honor former head coach Joe Tiller, who passed last week, and his first team, the 1997 squad. There will be plenty of emotion in the stadium. Although everyone likes what they have seen from Jeff Brohm's offense, there haven't been too many units in college football more improved than the Purdue defense. After giving up more than 38 points a game in 2016, they enter this game giving up only 21. Boiler up!
ATS pick: Purdue
Score: Purdue 34, Minnesota 24
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-11.5) at UAB Blazers
Fallica: The Blazers sit at 2-2 in their first season back to football and have played hard in all four games, covering three of them. That's kind of what I expected from them this season when suggesting the over on the win total for the year. They almost cashed in at North Texas, where they rallied to tie the game at 43, only to lose on a last-second field goal as double-digit underdogs. I think UAB is still undervalued, as FPI says LA Tech should be around a 4.5-point favorite. With a touchdown of value, I'll take UAB to again keep it close.
ATS pick: UAB
Score: Louisiana Tech 41, UAB 35
Arizona Wildcats at Colorado Buffaloes (-6.5)
Fallica: When last seen, the Wildcats couldn't stop turning the ball over against Utah, and it cost them. In watching that game, it's clear that the Wildcats' defense is improved and kept them in a game that easily could have gotten away from them. We knew Colorado was set for a step back this season, and the past two games have shown that to be true, though there is no disgrace in losing to Washington or on the road to one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Josh Rosen. However, our numbers have this one as a pick 'em, so we'll take the points and the Cats.
ATS pick: Arizona
Score: Arizona 31, Colorado 30
No. 25 UCF Knights (-17) at Cincinnati Bearcats
Fallica: I can see a little letdown for the Knights after last week's throttling of Memphis. The Bearcats were embarrassed at home last week by Marshall, and I would expect a better effort here. The Cincy defense held Michigan in check for the most part a few weeks back, and I can see Luke Fickell's bunch doing the same this week against the undefeated -- both SU and ATS -- Knights.
ATS pick: Cincinnati
Score: UCF 37, Cincinnati 27
Maryland Terrapins at No. 10 Ohio State Buckeyes (-30.5)
Fallica: We're into the part of the schedule when the Buckeyes' offense gets right against weaker opponents. This one was 62-3 last season in Maryland, and though I don't think it will be 62-3 this time around, I don't like the matchup for the Terps' inexperienced quarterback against that Ohio State defense.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 48, Maryland 13
CFB VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN I
10/5/17
Our experts are back with their Week 6 college football picks. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica will pick two common games and as many wild-card games as they choose. It's all here in one file for your perusing pleasure.
Here are the best bets for Week 6 of the college football season.
ATS record:
Phil Steele: 7-1 in Week 5 (18-22 season)
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin: 2-3 in Week 5 (13-10-1 season)
Chris Fallica: 2-6 in Week 5 (18-20 season)
Note: Lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
Common games
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-26.5) at Texas A&M Aggies
Steele: Alabama takes care of business on the road in the SEC and has won 10 of the past 11 by more than Vegas expected. Texas A&M has struggled all season, and Alabama just blew out two SEC teams by an average of 61 points per game. I have sided with Alabama each of the past three years in this series, but this is just one of those games where the spread is inflated well beyond where it should be, and Vegas knows the Tide followers will pay the extra price. Texas A&M has 20 sacks and is allowing just 96 rushing yards per game (3.1 yards per carry). Additionally, Aggie quarterback Kellen Mond is mobile, which has given the Crimson Tide problems in the past. Texas A&M would be undefeated right now if not for that blown 44-10 third-quarter lead over UCLA, and the preseason line on this game was just 10. Finally, Texas A&M is 8-2-1 as a double-digit home 'dog the past 40 years and 3-1 ATS as a 21-point or higher home 'dog in that span.
ATS pick: Texas A&M
Score: Alabama 36, Texas A&M 16
Coughlin: There has not been a better signing or hire in college football this year than Nick Saban's hiring of offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. The ability Daboll has shown to change formations with different personnel, along with the different ways he uses his quarterback in and out of the pocket, has been so fun to watch. More importantly, it has been astoundingly effective, giving defensive coordinators nightmares. Aggies defensive coordinator John Chavis, who has called plenty of defenses in his time, might not have seen a system as versatile as that of the Tide. Bama has destroyed Vanderbilt and Ole Miss by a combined score of 125-3 in arguably the two most dominant performances of the Nick Saban era. Although it seems too easy to say Alabama will roll, it will be a night game in College Station, so I'll just say both teams will score more points than the expected outcome. Take the over.
Pick: Over 53.5 points
Score: Alabama 41, Texas A&M 17
Fallica: Alabama has some injuries mounting, which could be a concern long-term, and Christian Kirk is the type of player who maybe pops a big play and keeps the Aggies hanging around. I don't know how many stops A&M will get, but 26.5 is a big number. Yes, Alabama has throttled two SEC opponents thus far, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Texas A&M stay within that number this week, as the Aggies are the most talented team Bama has faced since the season opener. Because of the fashion of the loss to UCLA, it feels like A&M is 2-3 rather than 4-1, so I think the number is a bit inflated.
ATS pick: Texas A&M
Score: Alabama 41, Texas A&M 21
No. 13 Miami Hurricanes (-3) at Florida State Seminoles
Steele: Florida State has won seven straight over the in-state rivals. Both teams had two full weeks off, and it took each a while to get back into gear. Florida State lost at home to North Carolina State and beat Wake Forest by only a touchdown on the road. Florida State's offense has struggled behind a leaky offensive line but has faced three top-25 defensive lines. Miami has rolled up 515 yards per game, but quarterback Malik Rosier has yet to face a dominating defense like the one Florida State possesses. Florida State has taken on my No. 1 toughest schedule overall, and Miami has faced just my No. 95 toughest slate. Florida State has been a home 'dog exactly once in the past six years, and it covered that game. Miami doesn't just have to win this game. The Canes have to win by more than three, so I'm taking the points with the battle-tested Seminoles.
ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Florida State 21, Miami 20
Coughlin: I will just say this about Miami: It's time. The Hurricanes have suffered seven straight losses to the Seminoles, and the Canes are the better football team. The defense is still feeling things out, as they are a couple games behind due to Hurricane Irma, but they are fresh off their best effort of the season, holding Duke to six points in Durham in a battle of the unbeatens. Miami enters the game protecting the ball as well as anyone in the nation, ranking second nationally with only two turnovers in three games. Rosier, a first-year starter as a junior, is averaging 273 passing yards per game, with eight touchdowns and only two interceptions. Rosier now has receiver Ahmmon Richards back as his No. 1 target, and you know the U will rely on stud running back Mark Walton, who has surpassed 400 rushing yards on the season. I trust Mark Richt in this spot and will lay the points, even though I would play the money line if possible to not have to worry about the points, seeing how intense this game will be.
ATS pick: Miami
Score: Miami 24, Florida State 19
Fallica: I'm staying far away from the side in this one, as this game opened with FSU as a favorite and has swung to Miami favored in the area of a field goal. It has been coulda, woulda, shoulda for Miami the past three years in this one, as the Canes blew a double-digit lead last season, blew a fourth-quarter lead in Tallahassee in 2015 and blew a double-digit, fourth-quarter lead in 2014. Yes, Florida State's offense is statistically the worst in the ACC, and the offensive line has struggled mightily, but maybe the comeback last week at Wake Forest will turn the Noles' season around. But if it doesn't, this will be the year Miami ends the losing streak against its rival. Still, I'm more certain this will be a lower-scoring game with defenses controlling the game, especially with the prospect of bad weather.
Pick: Under 48 points
Stanford Cardinal (-5.5) at No. 20 Utah Utes
Steele: Utah has won three in a row in the series, with the most recent meeting coming in 2014. The Utes are fresh off a bye, while Stanford is on its third road game in four weeks and fifth straight tough game. Utah got very banged up in its previous game and might be without quarterback Tyler Huntley and star defensive lineman Kylie Fitts. Stanford might be giving redshirt freshman K.J. Costello his first road start, while Utah has Troy Williams, who started all 13 games last season. Bryce Love just topped 300 yards versus the Arizona State defense but now faces a defense that allows just 86 rushing yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry. This is not your typical Stanford defense, as they're giving up 445 yards per game and 32 yards more than their opponent's average.
ATS pick: Utah
Score: Utah 28, Stanford 27
Coughlin: This is an absolute brutal spot for the Cardinal. Utah is home off a bye week, and the game is at night. Stanford's quarterback situation is not set in stone, as Keller Chryst could be back under center for the Stanford offense after Costello helped the team win its past two games while Chryst was injured. Utah watched Bryce Love run up and down the field on ASU last week for a Stanford school-record 301 yards. Whether its Chryst or Costello under center for the Cardinal, I don't see the Cardinal being able to consistently move the chains in a hostile environment. Add that Kyle Whittingham is 2-0 versus David Shaw and has beaten two way better offenses than this Cardinal outfit, and I say the Utes remain undefeated.
ATS pick: Utah
Score: Utah 24, Stanford 23
Thursday games
No. 17 Louisville Cardinals (-3.5) at No. 24 NC State Wolfpack
Fallica: I'm surprised Louisville is favored here, and FPI agrees with me, as it has the line completely flipped with the Wolfpack as four-point favorites. The Pack were predictably sluggish last week against Syracuse, but I expect a much sharper, focused effort against the Cardinals. It was 54-13 last season, and I'm sure Dave Doeren will remind his team about that this week. Given Louisville's struggles on the offensive line and the injury to Lamar Jackson's top target, Jaylen Smith, Jackson will be even more of a one-man show on offense against that NC State defensive line. A home team getting points -- what's better than that?
ATS pick: NC State
Score: NC State 33, Louisville 31
Friday games
Boise State Broncos (-9) at BYU Cougars
Coughlin: I don't know why, but I really like BYU this week. The Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their past four home games, and they are 0-6 ATS in their past six games overall. However, Boise State hasn't shown much ability to run the football, as the Broncos come in averaging just more than 100 yards on the ground. The BYU defense is giving up only 212 yards per game through the air, so the Cougars should be able to make the Broncos one-dimensional on offense. Boise State almost beat Wazzu a couple weeks ago, and BYU has been trucked by the biggest programs it has played (LSU and Wisconsin). It is not going to be a pretty game, but I will take the home team getting the points and predict an upset.
ATS pick: BYU
Score: BYU 20, Boise State 19
Saturday games
No. 9 Wisconsin Badgers (-12) at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Steele: Wisconsin was home last season and needed overtime to win 23-17. The Badgers come in averaging 460 yards per game, but against the one Power 5 team they faced, Northwestern last week, they were held to 303 yards. Nebraska's defense allowed 52 points per game over the first six quarters of the season but adjusted to Bob Diaco's 3-4 scheme, and in the past 14 quarters, it is allowing just 7.7 points per game if you take away three pick-sixes. This is only the fourth time this decade that Nebraska is a home 'dog and the first time it is a double-digit home 'dog. Nebraska has won 20 consecutive home night games at Memorial Stadium.
ATS pick: Nebraska
Score: Wisconsin 23, Nebraska 17
Ole Miss Rebels at No. 12 Auburn Tigers (-21.5)
Steele: Auburn is a legitimate top-10 team, and its only loss was to powerful Clemson in Death Valley by just eight points. Its defense is holding foes to 186 yards per game below their season average, which is No. 4 in the country. Ole Miss has a depth-shy team that might be run down after getting pounded by physical Alabama 66-3 on the road last week and is now traveling again. The Rebels' defense is allowing opponents 64 yards above their season average. They are struggling to run the ball at just 74 yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry. Auburn, since facing the best defense in the country on the road, has put up 501 yards per game, and last week, it had 256 yards more than Mississippi State came in allowing.
ATS pick: Auburn
Score: Auburn 41, Ole Miss 13
Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Cavaliers (-2)
Steele: My average game grade has Duke at 97.5. That includes an impressive road win at North Carolina and a dominating win over a solid Northwestern team. Virginia has an average game grade of 85.5 and should be a 9-point 'dog according to that rating. My computer shows Duke with a 26-21 win and 384-348 yardage edge as well as the better offense and defense. Shaun Wilson (412 rushing yards, 6.1 yards per carry) and Brittain Brown (373 rush yards, 6.0 yards per carry) give Duke the rushing yard edge, with my computer forecast showing a 180-63 yard advantage.
ATS pick: Duke
Score: Duke 26, Virginia 21
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Tulane Green Wave (-4)
Steele: Tulsa just faced two option teams in New Mexico and Navy, and now it faces another for a third straight week, which is a large advantage (Tulane is fresh off a bye). Tulsa nearly knocked off Toledo on the road, losing in part to an extra point that was returned in the three-point loss. I trust that Golden Hurricane offense with quarterback Chad President and running back D'Angelo Brewer. I also love the fact that defending the option is now old hat, and Tulsa takes on the least potent option-rush attack of those three games. Tulsa is 11-1 ATS in this series.
ATS pick: Tulsa
Score: Tulsa 31, Tulane 28
Marshall Thundering Herd (-15.5) at Charlotte 49ers
Steele: In the most recent meeting between these teams at Charlotte (2015), the Thundering Herd led by 31 points until a garbage-time 49ers touchdown with 6:29 left. Marshall will be out for revenge after being upset at home last season as a two-touchdown favorite. I have used Marshall as a best bet three times this season, and since they are perfect versus the Las Vegas number, they're 3-0 in those. Charlotte is 0-12 at home versus FBS foes and 2-9-1 versus the Vegas number, and it lost to Georgia State at home by 28 points. Marshall outgained Cincinnati by only 17 yards last week, but Cincinnati had 207 of its 349 yards in the fourth quarter with the game out of reach. Charlotte fired its offensive coordinator last week and put up 30 points against FIU (led 26-7). Charlotte quarterbacks have thrown for 135 yards per game, completing just 47.9 percent with a 4-9 ratio, while Marshall has 11 sacks and a solid pass defense. I will keep riding the Herd.
ATS pick: Marshall
Score: Marshall 37, Charlotte 13
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue Boilermakers (-4)
Coughlin: I said in the preseason to take the over on Purdue's season total of 2.5 wins, and the Boilermakers have gotten off to a better than advertised start. Saturday will be a special day in West Lafayette, as the Boilermakers will honor former head coach Joe Tiller, who passed last week, and his first team, the 1997 squad. There will be plenty of emotion in the stadium. Although everyone likes what they have seen from Jeff Brohm's offense, there haven't been too many units in college football more improved than the Purdue defense. After giving up more than 38 points a game in 2016, they enter this game giving up only 21. Boiler up!
ATS pick: Purdue
Score: Purdue 34, Minnesota 24
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-11.5) at UAB Blazers
Fallica: The Blazers sit at 2-2 in their first season back to football and have played hard in all four games, covering three of them. That's kind of what I expected from them this season when suggesting the over on the win total for the year. They almost cashed in at North Texas, where they rallied to tie the game at 43, only to lose on a last-second field goal as double-digit underdogs. I think UAB is still undervalued, as FPI says LA Tech should be around a 4.5-point favorite. With a touchdown of value, I'll take UAB to again keep it close.
ATS pick: UAB
Score: Louisiana Tech 41, UAB 35
Arizona Wildcats at Colorado Buffaloes (-6.5)
Fallica: When last seen, the Wildcats couldn't stop turning the ball over against Utah, and it cost them. In watching that game, it's clear that the Wildcats' defense is improved and kept them in a game that easily could have gotten away from them. We knew Colorado was set for a step back this season, and the past two games have shown that to be true, though there is no disgrace in losing to Washington or on the road to one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Josh Rosen. However, our numbers have this one as a pick 'em, so we'll take the points and the Cats.
ATS pick: Arizona
Score: Arizona 31, Colorado 30
No. 25 UCF Knights (-17) at Cincinnati Bearcats
Fallica: I can see a little letdown for the Knights after last week's throttling of Memphis. The Bearcats were embarrassed at home last week by Marshall, and I would expect a better effort here. The Cincy defense held Michigan in check for the most part a few weeks back, and I can see Luke Fickell's bunch doing the same this week against the undefeated -- both SU and ATS -- Knights.
ATS pick: Cincinnati
Score: UCF 37, Cincinnati 27
Maryland Terrapins at No. 10 Ohio State Buckeyes (-30.5)
Fallica: We're into the part of the schedule when the Buckeyes' offense gets right against weaker opponents. This one was 62-3 last season in Maryland, and though I don't think it will be 62-3 this time around, I don't like the matchup for the Terps' inexperienced quarterback against that Ohio State defense.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 48, Maryland 13
