How to bet UFC 216
Reed Kuhn
ESPN INSIDER
10/6/17
After some rescheduling, the UFC's longest-reigning and most dominant champion, flyweight Demetrious Johnson, finally returns to set a new title defense record at UFC 216. And yet that fight will play co-main to the interim lightweight title fight, which will anoint a placeholder champion while Conor McGregor decides his next move. The Ferguson-Lee pairing started abrasively moments after Ferguson's last victory, and should deliver both in skills as well as hate. Elsewhere on the card, we've got heavyweights capable of finishing opponents in a wild variety of ways.
A high-level view of fighting efficiency shows how these athletes have performed offensively versus defensively. Notable highlights are that the championship matchup between Johnson and Borg pits two relatively conservative fighters who have taken minimal damage to date, while the main event features Ferguson and Lee, who will likely put out more pace and risk more damage in doing so.
Now let's look at where the betting value might be lurking.
No. 2 Fabricio Werdum (-255) vs. No. 6 Derrick Lewis (+215)
It's arguably the most divergent skills mismatch in the heavyweight division, with the advanced dual threat Werdum taking on the limited, but powerful Lewis. Werdum's dangerous submission game is so widely respected we've hardly seen it used in recent history, while his standup attack has remained enough to carry him through. His striking mixes plenty of Muay Thai diversity into an aggressive and high-pressure offensive game. And he can maintain his pace as long as necessary, and certainly throughout a mere three-rounder at sea level.
Lewis on the other hand, appears unremarkable on paper, with many of his metrics coming in at average or below. And yet his toughness and strength have carried him past more experienced and skilled opponents throughout his career. And his brutish top game could be a counterintuitive opportunity given Werdum's willingness to fall to guard.
Insider recommends: Heavyweight matchups are notorious for their one-punch alternate endings. Werdum has every skill advantage there is, but must also face the hard reality that he is on the wrong side of 40, and facing a heavy-handed opponent. And yet we've seen this twice before with Travis Browne, where Werdum avoided the sloppy striking of his opponent to control the rounds and continuously do damage. So even at current odds Werdum is still the play, and we have to hope he doesn't get careless and clipped, or even hedge outright with a Lewis by TKO prop at more than +350 if Werdum's line continues to drift.
Champion Demetrious Johnson (-1250) vs. No. 3 Ray Borg (+800)
Mighty Mouse will be potentially a more than 10-to-1 betting favorite for the third consecutive title fight, a feat surpassed only by Ronda Rousey, who was similarly favored four times in a row. And it's hard to argue against Mighty Mouse as the most dominant champion in the UFC, deservedly fighting to break the record of most consecutive title defenses set by Anderson Silva. Johnson continues to evolve his game and excel in every discipline. His striking is technical, his clinch game is dangerous, and he's nearly impossible to keep on the ground since moving to flyweight.
Enter the apparent sacrificial lamb, Ray Borg. Borg's stat line is one of the most extreme in the division, revealing ineffective striking that is compensated for with aggressive and dominant wrestling. He shoots early and often, and once on the mat has been successful there. He has weathered superior strikers, and rarely been stopped from smothering opponents. But can he do that against such a fast and seasoned wrestler as Johnson? It's Borg's only hope, and one that will telegraph his intentions, allowing Johnson to make him pay for his pursuit.
Insider recommends: It's a lopsided stylistic clash. It's unlikely Borg can get Johnson to the ground for long, or for enough rounds to steal a decision. And in even attempting to do so, he's likely to eat strikes from the precise and simultaneously evasive champ. There's minimal return for playing Johnson straight up, but he's an obvious parlay booster for other bets. For more value, take the Under 4.5 rounds (or Johnson Inside the Distance at roughly the same price) on the assumption that Johnson will do accumulating damage and eventually catch Borg to set up a finish. Johnson has now finished six of 11 opponents during his title defense streak, and four of his past six.
No. 2 Tony Ferguson (-230) vs. No. 7 Kevin Lee (+190)
And now things get interesting. The matchup to potentially decide Conor McGregor's next title defense will feature the closest odds of the final three fights, and skill sets that offer each fighter paths to victory. Ferguson comes in as the pseudo-incumbent, having been previously positioned for a title shot, and already having defeated former champion Rafael dos Anjos. Ferguson has arrived here largely thanks to his hands. He's capable of delivering a high-pace striking attack, and has sprinkled in slick chokes when on the ground.
While Lee hasn't backed down from striking, he hasn't quite been effective in it. His accuracy is low, and his defense is poor, and he's never demonstrated confident knockout power. That said, he has outpaced opponents typically as a way to distract from his true agenda of getting the fight to the ground. That's where he has dominated. His back control is one of the best of any active fighter, and has led to three consecutive rear-naked chokes in his past three fights.
Insider recommends: This fight boils down to Ferguson's takedown defense. He has been owned on the mat before, and if he doesn't keep Lee from finding back control, he will lose rounds and potentially get choked. While his defense has improved, it's still not particularly great. That makes the underdog Lee the better play at plus-190, assuming he knows not to take chances trading strikes with the superior pugilist Ferguson.
Reed Kuhn
ESPN INSIDER
10/6/17
After some rescheduling, the UFC's longest-reigning and most dominant champion, flyweight Demetrious Johnson, finally returns to set a new title defense record at UFC 216. And yet that fight will play co-main to the interim lightweight title fight, which will anoint a placeholder champion while Conor McGregor decides his next move. The Ferguson-Lee pairing started abrasively moments after Ferguson's last victory, and should deliver both in skills as well as hate. Elsewhere on the card, we've got heavyweights capable of finishing opponents in a wild variety of ways.
A high-level view of fighting efficiency shows how these athletes have performed offensively versus defensively. Notable highlights are that the championship matchup between Johnson and Borg pits two relatively conservative fighters who have taken minimal damage to date, while the main event features Ferguson and Lee, who will likely put out more pace and risk more damage in doing so.
Now let's look at where the betting value might be lurking.
No. 2 Fabricio Werdum (-255) vs. No. 6 Derrick Lewis (+215)
It's arguably the most divergent skills mismatch in the heavyweight division, with the advanced dual threat Werdum taking on the limited, but powerful Lewis. Werdum's dangerous submission game is so widely respected we've hardly seen it used in recent history, while his standup attack has remained enough to carry him through. His striking mixes plenty of Muay Thai diversity into an aggressive and high-pressure offensive game. And he can maintain his pace as long as necessary, and certainly throughout a mere three-rounder at sea level.
Lewis on the other hand, appears unremarkable on paper, with many of his metrics coming in at average or below. And yet his toughness and strength have carried him past more experienced and skilled opponents throughout his career. And his brutish top game could be a counterintuitive opportunity given Werdum's willingness to fall to guard.
Insider recommends: Heavyweight matchups are notorious for their one-punch alternate endings. Werdum has every skill advantage there is, but must also face the hard reality that he is on the wrong side of 40, and facing a heavy-handed opponent. And yet we've seen this twice before with Travis Browne, where Werdum avoided the sloppy striking of his opponent to control the rounds and continuously do damage. So even at current odds Werdum is still the play, and we have to hope he doesn't get careless and clipped, or even hedge outright with a Lewis by TKO prop at more than +350 if Werdum's line continues to drift.
Champion Demetrious Johnson (-1250) vs. No. 3 Ray Borg (+800)
Mighty Mouse will be potentially a more than 10-to-1 betting favorite for the third consecutive title fight, a feat surpassed only by Ronda Rousey, who was similarly favored four times in a row. And it's hard to argue against Mighty Mouse as the most dominant champion in the UFC, deservedly fighting to break the record of most consecutive title defenses set by Anderson Silva. Johnson continues to evolve his game and excel in every discipline. His striking is technical, his clinch game is dangerous, and he's nearly impossible to keep on the ground since moving to flyweight.
Enter the apparent sacrificial lamb, Ray Borg. Borg's stat line is one of the most extreme in the division, revealing ineffective striking that is compensated for with aggressive and dominant wrestling. He shoots early and often, and once on the mat has been successful there. He has weathered superior strikers, and rarely been stopped from smothering opponents. But can he do that against such a fast and seasoned wrestler as Johnson? It's Borg's only hope, and one that will telegraph his intentions, allowing Johnson to make him pay for his pursuit.
Insider recommends: It's a lopsided stylistic clash. It's unlikely Borg can get Johnson to the ground for long, or for enough rounds to steal a decision. And in even attempting to do so, he's likely to eat strikes from the precise and simultaneously evasive champ. There's minimal return for playing Johnson straight up, but he's an obvious parlay booster for other bets. For more value, take the Under 4.5 rounds (or Johnson Inside the Distance at roughly the same price) on the assumption that Johnson will do accumulating damage and eventually catch Borg to set up a finish. Johnson has now finished six of 11 opponents during his title defense streak, and four of his past six.
No. 2 Tony Ferguson (-230) vs. No. 7 Kevin Lee (+190)
And now things get interesting. The matchup to potentially decide Conor McGregor's next title defense will feature the closest odds of the final three fights, and skill sets that offer each fighter paths to victory. Ferguson comes in as the pseudo-incumbent, having been previously positioned for a title shot, and already having defeated former champion Rafael dos Anjos. Ferguson has arrived here largely thanks to his hands. He's capable of delivering a high-pace striking attack, and has sprinkled in slick chokes when on the ground.
While Lee hasn't backed down from striking, he hasn't quite been effective in it. His accuracy is low, and his defense is poor, and he's never demonstrated confident knockout power. That said, he has outpaced opponents typically as a way to distract from his true agenda of getting the fight to the ground. That's where he has dominated. His back control is one of the best of any active fighter, and has led to three consecutive rear-naked chokes in his past three fights.
Insider recommends: This fight boils down to Ferguson's takedown defense. He has been owned on the mat before, and if he doesn't keep Lee from finding back control, he will lose rounds and potentially get choked. While his defense has improved, it's still not particularly great. That makes the underdog Lee the better play at plus-190, assuming he knows not to take chances trading strikes with the superior pugilist Ferguson.
