Best bets on Week 5 NFL games
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
10/6/17
It's Week 5 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Total: 39.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent pick Buffalo
Phil Steele's take: The Bengals scored a combined nine points over the first two weeks, but a change at offensive coordinator has helped them tally 55 points over their past two. Cincinnati has a 1-3 record despite being plus-19 yards per game. Buffalo meanwhile is 3-1, but minus 22 yards per game. The Bills are off an upset road win over Atlanta where they were outgained by 110 yards and this is their third road game in four weeks. Since the start of last year, Buffalo has averaged just 17.9 points per game on the road (29.3 points per game at home) giving me more fuel to go with the home squad in this one.
ATS pick: Bengals -3
Warren Sharp's take: Off a huge win in Atlanta, the Bills are on the road again in Cincinnati. But digging into that victory in Atlanta, it really was fortuitous for the Bills. They were plus-3 in turnovers and had only 15 first downs to Atlanta's 25. The Falcons posted an edge in success rate, yards per play and had substantially better average field position. They held the Bills ground attack to just 3.3 yards per carry, but were undone by the turnovers. The Bengals looked like a different team with Vontaze Burfict on defense, although temper some of those expectations given it was the Browns offense in Week 4. Unfortunately for the Bills, the Bengals rank as the best pass defense and best pass rush defense they have faced this season, and still are a top-10 run defense with Burfict.
ATS pick: Bengals -3
Mike Clay's ATS pick and prediction: Buffalo and the over (Cincinnati 21, Buffalo 19)
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (PK)
Total: 39.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 66 percent take New York Jets
Phil Steele's take: It's completely shocking that the Jets (2-2) are the better New York team at the moment, after a pair of home wins against Miami and Jacksonville. Cleveland is minus-32 yards per game with its opponents posting a 3-9 record this year when not playing against them. The Jets are minus-16 yards per game with their foes at 6-5 in other action. Cleveland (trailing 31-0) needed a garbage touchdown with 1:54 left to avoid the shutout last week, and the Browns are the only team in the league that has not led in any game. While Cleveland has just one win in its past 23 games, the Browns clearly have a shot here.
ATS pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: No team has faced a tougher schedule of opposing defenses than the Browns, who already tangled with AFC North defenses of Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cincinnati. After facing those three top-10 pass rush defenses, the Browns finally get the NFL's second-worst pass rush of the Jets. Perhaps that will assist Deshone Kizer in the pocket, because his biggest problem has been holding onto the ball too long and taking hits before he can fire it downfield. The Browns should also be able to get their run game going. On the other side, the Jets offense has been bad against mediocre defenses but it does appear like the offense is settling down some and Josh McCown is playing better against two out-of-sync offenses the last two weeks, which could mean better things against a similar Browns offense.
ATS pick: Pass
Mike Clay's ATS pick and prediction: New York and the over (Cleveland 21, New York 20)
Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-2.5)
Total: 43
PickCenter public consensus pick: 69 percent pick Detroit
Phil Steele's take: The "buy" sign may have gone on for the Panthers last week as Cam Newton looked terrific, despite it coming against the No. 32 defense of the Patriots. Detroit is an overturned touchdown versus Atlanta away from being 4-0, and has been in four close games. Carolina's defense is holding foes to 83 yards per game below their season average and is plus-37 yards per game overall. The Lions, meanwhile, are minus-23 yards per game in 2017. With the Panthers posting a 16-6 ATS mark as an away 'dog, I will call for them to grab the road win this week in Detroit.
ATS pick: Carolina +2.5
Warren Sharp's take: The Lions offense has enjoyed the benefit of facing the fourth-easiest schedule of opposing defenses and they lead the NFL in takeaways. The Lions were trailing the Cardinals before Arizona lost David Johnson, they were able to face the Giants without a healthy Odell Beckham, they were whitewashed in the stats at home against the Falcons (but turnovers nearly saved them) and they won by 7 over the Vikings, who were starting a backup QB and lost their incredible RB (Dalvin Cook) to an ACL tear in-game. Looking at the metrics of the Lions, they remind me of the Chiefs from the past two years (though not this year): an extremely average team that has been extremely fortunate. Carolina's offense has been extremely up and down this year, but has had the fortune of playing several bad defenses (49ers, Patriots and Saints). This game could play closer to the form of their low-scoring game against the Bills Week 2.
Lean: Under 43
Mike Clay's ATS pick and prediction: Carolina (Detroit 22, Carolina 21)
San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
Total: 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 58 percent pick Indy
Phil Steele's take: The 49ers are 0-4 while being outgained by 49 yards per game. Indianapolis is at 1-3, with its only win coming against the Browns (Colts minus-131 yards per game). They have both gone 0-3 versus the Seahawks, Rams and Cardinals with Indianapolis losing by an average of 23 points per game and San Francisco by just three PPG. Jacoby Brissett had a solid first half a week ago in Seattle giving him some confidence here, as the 49ers have a similar scheme but with clearly less talent. While the Colts did lead Cleveland 31-14 in that earlier win and the 49ers are in the middle of a three-game road trip, I'm in a wait-and-see approach with both teams at the moment.
ATS pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: These two defenses have been terrible, with the Colts ranking 26th and the 49ers ranking 23rd. But the reason for optimism for both defenses in this game is that both offenses are even worse, ranking 31st and 32nd in efficiency. With the Colts playing the Rams, Cardinals and Seahawks defenses so far this year, it should be a welcome sight to face the 49ers defense, which does not bring a strong pass rush. Meanwhile, I look for Carlos Hyde to see success through the air, as the 49ers have faced the fourth-hardest schedule of RB pass defenses and now face the 20th rated RB-pass defense of the Colts.
ATS pick: Pass
Erin Rynning's take: The 49ers have been largely stuck in neutral on offense. However, the schedule lightens with this trip to Indianapolis after division battles against the sturdy defenses of Seattle, Arizona, the Los Angeles Rams and Carolina. This Kyle Shanahan offense will certainly click this season, and he's felt the unit is close to breaking out. Meanwhile, the Colts are taking a step-forward offensively with Brissett at the controls as he gains confidence in the system each week. Center Ryan Kelly is expected to return this week to solidify the offensive line.
Pick: Over 44.5
Mike Clay's ATS pick and prediction: San Francisco (Indianapolis 22, San Francisco 21)
Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants (-3.5)
Total: 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 54 percent pick New York Giants
Phil Steele's take: While both teams were considered possible playoff teams prior to the year, this now becomes a battle of two winless teams (only one 0-4 team, the 1992 San Diego Chargers, has ever made the playoffs). Philip Rivers and Eli Manning were traded for each other on the 2004 draft day and the Chargers are 3-0 in the series since. Los Angeles has now lost nine straight games, while not covering a single one of them. The Giants have scored 47 points in their last five quarters, with the previously leaky offensive line not allowing a sack the past two games (yielded eight the first two weeks). The Chargers have three losses by three or less and have not had a home edge whatsoever in Los Angeles. While the Giants blew fourth-quarter leads in their last two games, I expect them to pick up their first win here.
ATS pick: New York -3.5
Warren Sharp's take: As long as the Chargers offense insists on handing off the football to Melvin Gordon on first down for 0.5 yards per carry and ignoring Hunter Henry, they will continue to infuriate those of us who love efficient football. The Giants earned a cover last week but their defense continues to be puzzling despite having many of the same components from 2016. The Giants rank 31st in run defense efficiency, 25th against the pass and are particularly vulnerable to TEs, allowing 8.6 yards per attempt (26th) and a 57 percent success rate. This theoretically should give plenty of opportunities to the Chargers, but Los Angeles has a terrible rushing attack and refuses to incorporate its TEs (and especially Henry) enough in the passing game.
ATS pick: Pass
Erin Rynning's take: The Chargers will most likely welcome a trip on the road after a three-game home stand with negligible home-field advantage. They've disappointed in stopping the run through four games, but this Giants offense rarely musters a spark with the run. Eli will again find it difficult to pass against a capable Chargers secondary, while Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram wreak havoc with the pass rush. This is the right matchup for the Chargers to excel.
ATS pick: Los Angeles and lean with the under
Mike Clay's ATS pick and prediction: Los Angeles and the under (New York 21, Los Angeles 19)
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
Total: 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent pick Philly
Phil Steele's take: The Eagles' only loss in 2017 came to the undefeated Chiefs in Arrowhead (Philadelphia had a 406-344 yard edge). They are the fourth best team in the NFL in my average game grade and that opening 30-17 win over the Redskins looks better as the weeks go by. Arizona is plus-47 yards per game this year, but its two wins came by three points in overtime against the lowly Colts and 49ers. Although Carson Palmer is throwing for 299 yards per game, he has just a 78.2 quarterback rating with a 5-5 TD-INT ratio. Cardinals star running back David Johnson has been out after totaling over 2,000 all-purpose yards last year, while their banged up offensive line has allowed 17 sacks. With Arizona covering just three of its past 12 games, the Eagles are clearly my call in this one.
ATS pick: Philadelphia -6.5
Warren Sharp's take: Arizona's defense currently ranks 12th in efficiency, but has faced the easiest schedule of opposing offenses after games versus the Colts, Lions and 49ers. That should give some hope to the Eagles offense, and Carson Wentz has been much better at home than on the road in his career. And while I believe Carson Palmer has been better than what his final stats appear, and the team should have produced more on the scoreboard than they did, the fact is the Cardinals have put up 16, 17 and 18 points against the defenses of the Colts, Cowboys and 49ers. I'll lean to the road underdog despite that as I feel Arizona is better offensively than their stats show, and the Eagles are without their best pass-rusher and multiple pieces in the secondary.
Lean: Cardinals +6.5
Mike Clay's ATS pick and prediction: Arizona and the under (Philadelphia 24, Arizona 19)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8)
Total: 42.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent picked Pittsburgh
Phil Steele's take: The Steelers finally looked like an elite team last week as Le'Veon Bell finally looks in game shape with 144 rush yards against a tough Ravens defense. The Steelers offense had just 302 yards per game over the first three games before 381 versus Baltimore. Couple that with a defense that is allowing just 267 yards per game (No. 2 in the NFL) and you have one of the league's best teams. Pittsburgh has won seven of its last 12 home games by double digits. Jacksonville did win at Houston in the season opener while their defense was sixth in the NFL last year (No. 11 this year). Blake Bortles was just 15-of-35 passing versus the Jets, but is usually good for a late score or two in games, making this only a lean.
ATS pick: Lean Pittsburgh -8
Warren Sharp's take: Jacksonville is so good at defending the pass (best in the league) but so bad at defending the run (worst in the league) that it should make the game plan relatively simple for Pittsburgh: ride Le'Veon Bell, who just ran through the Ravens run defense the prior week. If Bell is able to get the run game going, it ultimately could open up the passing game, but the Steelers should ride him early and not risk getting too aggressive against Jacksonville lest they give up a quick turnover that keeps the Jaguars in the game. Jacksonville's game plan likewise should be to run the ball against a Steelers run defense which has faced the 21st rated schedule of opposing run offenses, and are particularly susceptible to big runs (worst in the league).
ATS pick: Jaguars+5 first half
Mike Clay's ATS pick and prediction: Jacksonville and the under (Pittsburgh 23, Jacksonville 19)
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (PK)
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 58 percent pick Seattle
Phil Steele's take: Seattle opened the season averaging just 10.5 points and 269 yards per game against the Packers and 49ers. Their offensive production has clearly increased over the last two games, however, with averages of 36.5 points and 455 yards versus Tennessee and Indianapolis. Seattle is just 3-7-1 straight up in its last 11 road games and are 1-4 straight up and 0-5 ATS visiting the Rams (most meetings came in St Louis). Jared Goff has a 112.1 quarterback rating, completing 67 percent of his passes with a 7-1 ratio. The Seahawks are allowing five yards per carry, but just 329 yards per game on defense. The Rams meanwhile, are allowing opponents 67 yards per game above what they come in averaging. The Rams are actually favored in this series for the first time since 2011. That may not bode well against a Seahawks team that can't afford to drop two games behind Los Angeles in the NFC West standings.
ATS pick: Seattle
Warren Sharp's take: The Rams did not disappoint last week against the Cowboys defense and now face a team they are extremely familiar with in the Seahawks. Seattle's defense does not look the same as it has in years past. Despite facing the fifth-easiest schedule of offenses, the Seahawks defense ranks about average in total efficiency, and 30th against the run. And that could be the difference in this game, as both teams struggle to stop the run (the Rams rank 24th despite playing the 24th-rated schedule). If each run game gets going, the pass games could open up, which is more important for the Seahawks to establish given their offensive line ineptitude. The Rams have been tremendous at protecting Goff and with Seattle's pass rush falling off substantially, it could really allow the Rams to open up a multi-dimensional and balanced offense in their first home game after back-to-back road victories.
Lean: Rams
Erin Rynning's take: Kudos to Sean McVay and Jared Goff transforming the Rams offense and deserving accolades. However, Goff will face a stern step up in class against this Seahawks defense after facing the Cowboys, 49ers, Redskins and Colts. The Seahawks take a notch up in class as well against a Rams defense that will improve as the season unfolds under the tutelage of Wade Philips. Of course, All-Pro Aaron Donald was late to the season as well after his holdout, but his momentum to the season and ability will prove difficult for the Seahawks disjointed offensive line.
Pick: Under 46
Mike Clay's pick and prediction: Seattle (Seattle 24, Los Angeles 22)
Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders (-2.5)
Total: 39
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent pick Baltimore
Phil Steele's take: This would have been perhaps my top pick of the week if Derek Carr were available (out 2-6 weeks with a back injury). While Baltimore picked up a pair of wins to start the season against Cincinnati and Cleveland, losses to Jacksonville in London and home against Pittsburgh have them headed in the wrong direction as they head out West. On the season the Ravens are minus-80 yards per game with the No. 30 offense and No. 21 defense. Oakland is actually averaging just 288 yards per game this year on offense, and is minus-60 yards per game. EJ Manuel is not Derek Carr, but he is at least a veteran. Baltimore does well inside the AFC North, but is on just a 2-11 ATS run outside the division dating back to the final two weeks of the 2015 campaign. With this line sitting under a field goal for Oakland, I see no problem giving them a lean in this one.
ATS pick: Lean Oakland -2.5
Warren Sharp's take: Talk about an ugly battle of quarterbacks in the modern passing era of football. This matchup between Joe Flacco and EJ Manuel is "must-miss" TV. It still is startling to note that Flacco hits the 2017 salary cap at the highest dollar amount of any player in the NFL this year. The Ravens offensive line has struggled immensely, but let's not overlook that they just played the top two pass rushes in the NFL (Jaguars and Steelers). The Raiders' pass rush has looked better of late than it did in 2016, and it will be difficult for Baltimore to sustain as it ranks as the NFL's worst offense in Early Down Success Rate (EDSR) offense and thus are forced into plenty of third downs, where they rank 26th. If the Raiders try to attack the weakness of this defense like the Jaguars and Steelers just did (via the run game), they could have success given injuries to the Ravens defense.
ATS pick: Pass
Mike Clay's ATS pick and prediction: Baltimore (Oakland 21, Baltimore 20)
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-2)
Total: 52.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent Green Bay
Phil Steele's take: Dallas is playing with playoff revenge after they were upset at home last year in the Divisional Round last season. Green Bay is allowing just 300 yards per game and is holding foes to 50 yards per game below their season average so far in 2017. While Green Bay beat the Bears 35-14 last week, it was due to four costly Chicago turnovers (Packers were actually outgained by 48 yards). I could make a good case both for and against both teams. With Green Bay struggling as a 'dog (4-11 ATS since 2012) and Dallas at just 8-19 ATS as a non-division home favorite (since 2010), I'm staying away from this one.
ATS pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: With these two teams meeting one another for the third time in less than one year, there isn't much new or surprising either team will pull out of the hat, given the continuity from both teams last year to this year. So, it will come down to team health and injuries. The Cowboys get back DE David Irving off of suspension, and could have the services of CBs Chidobe Awuzie and Nolan Carroll but LB Sean Lee and DT Stephen Paea still have not practiced yet this week. Meanwhile, for the Packers, their two key tackles (David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga) still are limited, as are Davante Adams and Ty Montgomery.
It's difficult to forecast the outcome without so many key starters for both teams, but the matchup I'm most intrigued to see is if the Packers run defense, which ranks 19th in efficiency and 25th against big runs) can limit Ezekiel Elliott. Also look for more use of Elliott in the passing game as the Packers rank as the fourth-worst defense against passes to RBs. Another mismatch will be on third down, as the Green Bay's offense ranks third in the NFL and the Cowboys defense ranks 25th.
Lean: Cowboys -2
Mike Clay's ATS pick and prediction: Green Bay and the over (Dallas 28, Green Bay 27)
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
10/6/17
It's Week 5 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Total: 39.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent pick Buffalo
Phil Steele's take: The Bengals scored a combined nine points over the first two weeks, but a change at offensive coordinator has helped them tally 55 points over their past two. Cincinnati has a 1-3 record despite being plus-19 yards per game. Buffalo meanwhile is 3-1, but minus 22 yards per game. The Bills are off an upset road win over Atlanta where they were outgained by 110 yards and this is their third road game in four weeks. Since the start of last year, Buffalo has averaged just 17.9 points per game on the road (29.3 points per game at home) giving me more fuel to go with the home squad in this one.
ATS pick: Bengals -3
Warren Sharp's take: Off a huge win in Atlanta, the Bills are on the road again in Cincinnati. But digging into that victory in Atlanta, it really was fortuitous for the Bills. They were plus-3 in turnovers and had only 15 first downs to Atlanta's 25. The Falcons posted an edge in success rate, yards per play and had substantially better average field position. They held the Bills ground attack to just 3.3 yards per carry, but were undone by the turnovers. The Bengals looked like a different team with Vontaze Burfict on defense, although temper some of those expectations given it was the Browns offense in Week 4. Unfortunately for the Bills, the Bengals rank as the best pass defense and best pass rush defense they have faced this season, and still are a top-10 run defense with Burfict.
ATS pick: Bengals -3
Mike Clay's ATS pick and prediction: Buffalo and the over (Cincinnati 21, Buffalo 19)
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (PK)
Total: 39.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 66 percent take New York Jets
Phil Steele's take: It's completely shocking that the Jets (2-2) are the better New York team at the moment, after a pair of home wins against Miami and Jacksonville. Cleveland is minus-32 yards per game with its opponents posting a 3-9 record this year when not playing against them. The Jets are minus-16 yards per game with their foes at 6-5 in other action. Cleveland (trailing 31-0) needed a garbage touchdown with 1:54 left to avoid the shutout last week, and the Browns are the only team in the league that has not led in any game. While Cleveland has just one win in its past 23 games, the Browns clearly have a shot here.
ATS pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: No team has faced a tougher schedule of opposing defenses than the Browns, who already tangled with AFC North defenses of Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cincinnati. After facing those three top-10 pass rush defenses, the Browns finally get the NFL's second-worst pass rush of the Jets. Perhaps that will assist Deshone Kizer in the pocket, because his biggest problem has been holding onto the ball too long and taking hits before he can fire it downfield. The Browns should also be able to get their run game going. On the other side, the Jets offense has been bad against mediocre defenses but it does appear like the offense is settling down some and Josh McCown is playing better against two out-of-sync offenses the last two weeks, which could mean better things against a similar Browns offense.
ATS pick: Pass
Mike Clay's ATS pick and prediction: New York and the over (Cleveland 21, New York 20)
Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-2.5)
Total: 43
PickCenter public consensus pick: 69 percent pick Detroit
Phil Steele's take: The "buy" sign may have gone on for the Panthers last week as Cam Newton looked terrific, despite it coming against the No. 32 defense of the Patriots. Detroit is an overturned touchdown versus Atlanta away from being 4-0, and has been in four close games. Carolina's defense is holding foes to 83 yards per game below their season average and is plus-37 yards per game overall. The Lions, meanwhile, are minus-23 yards per game in 2017. With the Panthers posting a 16-6 ATS mark as an away 'dog, I will call for them to grab the road win this week in Detroit.
ATS pick: Carolina +2.5
Warren Sharp's take: The Lions offense has enjoyed the benefit of facing the fourth-easiest schedule of opposing defenses and they lead the NFL in takeaways. The Lions were trailing the Cardinals before Arizona lost David Johnson, they were able to face the Giants without a healthy Odell Beckham, they were whitewashed in the stats at home against the Falcons (but turnovers nearly saved them) and they won by 7 over the Vikings, who were starting a backup QB and lost their incredible RB (Dalvin Cook) to an ACL tear in-game. Looking at the metrics of the Lions, they remind me of the Chiefs from the past two years (though not this year): an extremely average team that has been extremely fortunate. Carolina's offense has been extremely up and down this year, but has had the fortune of playing several bad defenses (49ers, Patriots and Saints). This game could play closer to the form of their low-scoring game against the Bills Week 2.
Lean: Under 43
Mike Clay's ATS pick and prediction: Carolina (Detroit 22, Carolina 21)
San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
Total: 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 58 percent pick Indy
Phil Steele's take: The 49ers are 0-4 while being outgained by 49 yards per game. Indianapolis is at 1-3, with its only win coming against the Browns (Colts minus-131 yards per game). They have both gone 0-3 versus the Seahawks, Rams and Cardinals with Indianapolis losing by an average of 23 points per game and San Francisco by just three PPG. Jacoby Brissett had a solid first half a week ago in Seattle giving him some confidence here, as the 49ers have a similar scheme but with clearly less talent. While the Colts did lead Cleveland 31-14 in that earlier win and the 49ers are in the middle of a three-game road trip, I'm in a wait-and-see approach with both teams at the moment.
ATS pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: These two defenses have been terrible, with the Colts ranking 26th and the 49ers ranking 23rd. But the reason for optimism for both defenses in this game is that both offenses are even worse, ranking 31st and 32nd in efficiency. With the Colts playing the Rams, Cardinals and Seahawks defenses so far this year, it should be a welcome sight to face the 49ers defense, which does not bring a strong pass rush. Meanwhile, I look for Carlos Hyde to see success through the air, as the 49ers have faced the fourth-hardest schedule of RB pass defenses and now face the 20th rated RB-pass defense of the Colts.
ATS pick: Pass
Erin Rynning's take: The 49ers have been largely stuck in neutral on offense. However, the schedule lightens with this trip to Indianapolis after division battles against the sturdy defenses of Seattle, Arizona, the Los Angeles Rams and Carolina. This Kyle Shanahan offense will certainly click this season, and he's felt the unit is close to breaking out. Meanwhile, the Colts are taking a step-forward offensively with Brissett at the controls as he gains confidence in the system each week. Center Ryan Kelly is expected to return this week to solidify the offensive line.
Pick: Over 44.5
Mike Clay's ATS pick and prediction: San Francisco (Indianapolis 22, San Francisco 21)
Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants (-3.5)
Total: 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 54 percent pick New York Giants
Phil Steele's take: While both teams were considered possible playoff teams prior to the year, this now becomes a battle of two winless teams (only one 0-4 team, the 1992 San Diego Chargers, has ever made the playoffs). Philip Rivers and Eli Manning were traded for each other on the 2004 draft day and the Chargers are 3-0 in the series since. Los Angeles has now lost nine straight games, while not covering a single one of them. The Giants have scored 47 points in their last five quarters, with the previously leaky offensive line not allowing a sack the past two games (yielded eight the first two weeks). The Chargers have three losses by three or less and have not had a home edge whatsoever in Los Angeles. While the Giants blew fourth-quarter leads in their last two games, I expect them to pick up their first win here.
ATS pick: New York -3.5
Warren Sharp's take: As long as the Chargers offense insists on handing off the football to Melvin Gordon on first down for 0.5 yards per carry and ignoring Hunter Henry, they will continue to infuriate those of us who love efficient football. The Giants earned a cover last week but their defense continues to be puzzling despite having many of the same components from 2016. The Giants rank 31st in run defense efficiency, 25th against the pass and are particularly vulnerable to TEs, allowing 8.6 yards per attempt (26th) and a 57 percent success rate. This theoretically should give plenty of opportunities to the Chargers, but Los Angeles has a terrible rushing attack and refuses to incorporate its TEs (and especially Henry) enough in the passing game.
ATS pick: Pass
Erin Rynning's take: The Chargers will most likely welcome a trip on the road after a three-game home stand with negligible home-field advantage. They've disappointed in stopping the run through four games, but this Giants offense rarely musters a spark with the run. Eli will again find it difficult to pass against a capable Chargers secondary, while Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram wreak havoc with the pass rush. This is the right matchup for the Chargers to excel.
ATS pick: Los Angeles and lean with the under
Mike Clay's ATS pick and prediction: Los Angeles and the under (New York 21, Los Angeles 19)
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
Total: 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent pick Philly
Phil Steele's take: The Eagles' only loss in 2017 came to the undefeated Chiefs in Arrowhead (Philadelphia had a 406-344 yard edge). They are the fourth best team in the NFL in my average game grade and that opening 30-17 win over the Redskins looks better as the weeks go by. Arizona is plus-47 yards per game this year, but its two wins came by three points in overtime against the lowly Colts and 49ers. Although Carson Palmer is throwing for 299 yards per game, he has just a 78.2 quarterback rating with a 5-5 TD-INT ratio. Cardinals star running back David Johnson has been out after totaling over 2,000 all-purpose yards last year, while their banged up offensive line has allowed 17 sacks. With Arizona covering just three of its past 12 games, the Eagles are clearly my call in this one.
ATS pick: Philadelphia -6.5
Warren Sharp's take: Arizona's defense currently ranks 12th in efficiency, but has faced the easiest schedule of opposing offenses after games versus the Colts, Lions and 49ers. That should give some hope to the Eagles offense, and Carson Wentz has been much better at home than on the road in his career. And while I believe Carson Palmer has been better than what his final stats appear, and the team should have produced more on the scoreboard than they did, the fact is the Cardinals have put up 16, 17 and 18 points against the defenses of the Colts, Cowboys and 49ers. I'll lean to the road underdog despite that as I feel Arizona is better offensively than their stats show, and the Eagles are without their best pass-rusher and multiple pieces in the secondary.
Lean: Cardinals +6.5
Mike Clay's ATS pick and prediction: Arizona and the under (Philadelphia 24, Arizona 19)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8)
Total: 42.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent picked Pittsburgh
Phil Steele's take: The Steelers finally looked like an elite team last week as Le'Veon Bell finally looks in game shape with 144 rush yards against a tough Ravens defense. The Steelers offense had just 302 yards per game over the first three games before 381 versus Baltimore. Couple that with a defense that is allowing just 267 yards per game (No. 2 in the NFL) and you have one of the league's best teams. Pittsburgh has won seven of its last 12 home games by double digits. Jacksonville did win at Houston in the season opener while their defense was sixth in the NFL last year (No. 11 this year). Blake Bortles was just 15-of-35 passing versus the Jets, but is usually good for a late score or two in games, making this only a lean.
ATS pick: Lean Pittsburgh -8
Warren Sharp's take: Jacksonville is so good at defending the pass (best in the league) but so bad at defending the run (worst in the league) that it should make the game plan relatively simple for Pittsburgh: ride Le'Veon Bell, who just ran through the Ravens run defense the prior week. If Bell is able to get the run game going, it ultimately could open up the passing game, but the Steelers should ride him early and not risk getting too aggressive against Jacksonville lest they give up a quick turnover that keeps the Jaguars in the game. Jacksonville's game plan likewise should be to run the ball against a Steelers run defense which has faced the 21st rated schedule of opposing run offenses, and are particularly susceptible to big runs (worst in the league).
ATS pick: Jaguars+5 first half
Mike Clay's ATS pick and prediction: Jacksonville and the under (Pittsburgh 23, Jacksonville 19)
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (PK)
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 58 percent pick Seattle
Phil Steele's take: Seattle opened the season averaging just 10.5 points and 269 yards per game against the Packers and 49ers. Their offensive production has clearly increased over the last two games, however, with averages of 36.5 points and 455 yards versus Tennessee and Indianapolis. Seattle is just 3-7-1 straight up in its last 11 road games and are 1-4 straight up and 0-5 ATS visiting the Rams (most meetings came in St Louis). Jared Goff has a 112.1 quarterback rating, completing 67 percent of his passes with a 7-1 ratio. The Seahawks are allowing five yards per carry, but just 329 yards per game on defense. The Rams meanwhile, are allowing opponents 67 yards per game above what they come in averaging. The Rams are actually favored in this series for the first time since 2011. That may not bode well against a Seahawks team that can't afford to drop two games behind Los Angeles in the NFC West standings.
ATS pick: Seattle
Warren Sharp's take: The Rams did not disappoint last week against the Cowboys defense and now face a team they are extremely familiar with in the Seahawks. Seattle's defense does not look the same as it has in years past. Despite facing the fifth-easiest schedule of offenses, the Seahawks defense ranks about average in total efficiency, and 30th against the run. And that could be the difference in this game, as both teams struggle to stop the run (the Rams rank 24th despite playing the 24th-rated schedule). If each run game gets going, the pass games could open up, which is more important for the Seahawks to establish given their offensive line ineptitude. The Rams have been tremendous at protecting Goff and with Seattle's pass rush falling off substantially, it could really allow the Rams to open up a multi-dimensional and balanced offense in their first home game after back-to-back road victories.
Lean: Rams
Erin Rynning's take: Kudos to Sean McVay and Jared Goff transforming the Rams offense and deserving accolades. However, Goff will face a stern step up in class against this Seahawks defense after facing the Cowboys, 49ers, Redskins and Colts. The Seahawks take a notch up in class as well against a Rams defense that will improve as the season unfolds under the tutelage of Wade Philips. Of course, All-Pro Aaron Donald was late to the season as well after his holdout, but his momentum to the season and ability will prove difficult for the Seahawks disjointed offensive line.
Pick: Under 46
Mike Clay's pick and prediction: Seattle (Seattle 24, Los Angeles 22)
Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders (-2.5)
Total: 39
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent pick Baltimore
Phil Steele's take: This would have been perhaps my top pick of the week if Derek Carr were available (out 2-6 weeks with a back injury). While Baltimore picked up a pair of wins to start the season against Cincinnati and Cleveland, losses to Jacksonville in London and home against Pittsburgh have them headed in the wrong direction as they head out West. On the season the Ravens are minus-80 yards per game with the No. 30 offense and No. 21 defense. Oakland is actually averaging just 288 yards per game this year on offense, and is minus-60 yards per game. EJ Manuel is not Derek Carr, but he is at least a veteran. Baltimore does well inside the AFC North, but is on just a 2-11 ATS run outside the division dating back to the final two weeks of the 2015 campaign. With this line sitting under a field goal for Oakland, I see no problem giving them a lean in this one.
ATS pick: Lean Oakland -2.5
Warren Sharp's take: Talk about an ugly battle of quarterbacks in the modern passing era of football. This matchup between Joe Flacco and EJ Manuel is "must-miss" TV. It still is startling to note that Flacco hits the 2017 salary cap at the highest dollar amount of any player in the NFL this year. The Ravens offensive line has struggled immensely, but let's not overlook that they just played the top two pass rushes in the NFL (Jaguars and Steelers). The Raiders' pass rush has looked better of late than it did in 2016, and it will be difficult for Baltimore to sustain as it ranks as the NFL's worst offense in Early Down Success Rate (EDSR) offense and thus are forced into plenty of third downs, where they rank 26th. If the Raiders try to attack the weakness of this defense like the Jaguars and Steelers just did (via the run game), they could have success given injuries to the Ravens defense.
ATS pick: Pass
Mike Clay's ATS pick and prediction: Baltimore (Oakland 21, Baltimore 20)
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-2)
Total: 52.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent Green Bay
Phil Steele's take: Dallas is playing with playoff revenge after they were upset at home last year in the Divisional Round last season. Green Bay is allowing just 300 yards per game and is holding foes to 50 yards per game below their season average so far in 2017. While Green Bay beat the Bears 35-14 last week, it was due to four costly Chicago turnovers (Packers were actually outgained by 48 yards). I could make a good case both for and against both teams. With Green Bay struggling as a 'dog (4-11 ATS since 2012) and Dallas at just 8-19 ATS as a non-division home favorite (since 2010), I'm staying away from this one.
ATS pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: With these two teams meeting one another for the third time in less than one year, there isn't much new or surprising either team will pull out of the hat, given the continuity from both teams last year to this year. So, it will come down to team health and injuries. The Cowboys get back DE David Irving off of suspension, and could have the services of CBs Chidobe Awuzie and Nolan Carroll but LB Sean Lee and DT Stephen Paea still have not practiced yet this week. Meanwhile, for the Packers, their two key tackles (David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga) still are limited, as are Davante Adams and Ty Montgomery.
It's difficult to forecast the outcome without so many key starters for both teams, but the matchup I'm most intrigued to see is if the Packers run defense, which ranks 19th in efficiency and 25th against big runs) can limit Ezekiel Elliott. Also look for more use of Elliott in the passing game as the Packers rank as the fourth-worst defense against passes to RBs. Another mismatch will be on third down, as the Green Bay's offense ranks third in the NFL and the Cowboys defense ranks 25th.
Lean: Cowboys -2
Mike Clay's ATS pick and prediction: Green Bay and the over (Dallas 28, Green Bay 27)
