How to bet Kansas City-Houston
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Sunday night's tilt between the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bet.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday afternoon.
Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (PK)
Total: 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent on Kansas City
Phil Steele
The Chiefs continued their undefeated season by beating the Washington Redskins by the narrowest of margins last Monday, and the Texans are off of a significant beat-down of division rival Tennessee Titans. This marks the third consecutive year that these two teams have met in Houston, with the Chiefs taking the 2015 meeting and the Texans coming out victorious by a touchdown a season ago. With Kansas City heading to Houston on short rest and the emergence of Deshaun Watson under center for the Texans, there's a good chance that the Chiefs' perfect season could be erased here. I will pass on this matchup, even with Kansas City covering recently to the tune of an outstanding 9-1 ATS mark.
Pick: Pass
Erin Rynning
Watson and the Texans have broken out in the last two weeks against the subpar defenses of the New England Patriots and Titans, and the Texans have featured a few interesting wrinkles with Watson under center. Alex Smith is also lighting up the scoreboard, on track to post a career year while completing 76 percent of his passes. However, the task will be trickier for Watson this week against the Chiefs defense and coordinator Bob Sutton, as it will be for Smith against the vaunted front of the Texans, as J.J. Watt rounds into form. This one will play out more like last season's 19-12 final.
Pick: Under
Warren Sharp
The Chiefs are the lone 4-0 team in the league, but so much is misunderstood regarding their performance this year. They were losing to the Patriots entering the fourth quarter in Week 1 and had to rally for the win. Last week, they were losing to the Redskins at home and had to again rally from behind in the fourth quarter for the win. In between, they were outplayed by the Los Angeles Chargers but were aided by plus-3 turnovers and the massive inefficiency of the Chargers offense, and then they were plus-2 in turnovers against the Philadelphia Eagles in a win that required 14 points in the fourth quarter. In both scenarios, they lost the first-down battle and allowed more trips into the red zone but won the turnover battle and made clutch plays when they needed them. The Texans defense will present the toughest challenge for the Chiefs offense yet this year. Prior to this game, the Chiefs haven't faced a defense ranking in the top half of the league in third-down defense, and the Texans' defense ranks fourth best. The Texans also rank fifth in early down success rate (EDSR), which means they may be able to force the Chiefs into third downs often. The Texans offense, led by Watson, is highly dynamic and should present plenty of challenges for the Chiefs defense.
ATS Pick: Houston
Mike Clay
ATS pick: Houston and the under
Prediction: Houston 23, Kansas City 21
Parolin's prop bets
62.5 receiving yards by Tyreek Hill (O/U -110)
Tyreek Hill isn't a target vacuum. He's averaging 6.8 targets per game, tied for 39th in the league. He's not likely to hit an over by accumulating enough short catches, but rather with one or two plays. That makes his production far more difficult to predict. He's had two games with more than 75 receiving yards, and two shy of 45. Hill ranks third among wide receivers in yards after catch this season, and teams that have limited his YAC have controlled his production best. In the two overs, Hill averaged 7.3 yards after catch per reception, while in the two unders, he sat at 5.1 YAC per reception. As for Sunday's opponent, the Texans have allowed the fewest yards after catch in the league (254), a 3.9 per-reception average that ranks fourth best. That's a good start for Houston's ability to keep Hill in check.
What about the deep ball? After all, Alex Smith is 8-of-13 on throws at least 20 yards downfield, tied with Jared Goff for the best completion percentage in the league on deep throws. The Houston defense is allowing completions on 8-of-16 wide receiver targets at least 20 yards downfield, a 50 percent completion percentage that's tied for third worst. Is there cause for concern here? Not exactly, as the Texans defense gave up five of their eight completions to Tom Brady in Foxborough, leaving everyone else at 3-of-8 on those throws. Smith's completion percentage looks great, but it is a small sample. From 2013 to 2016, Smith completed 32 percent of those throws, 31st among qualified quarterbacks in that span. Houston should hold Hill.
Pick: Under
19.5 completions by Deshaun Watson (O/U -110)
All things considered, it has looked pretty easy for Watson so far. In three starts, the rookie has completed 68 percent of his passes, averaging 20.7 completions per game -- but Kansas City's defense is easily the toughest Watson has faced so far. The Chiefs are allowing a league-best 55.3 completion percentage on throws 10 yards or fewer, a critical component of a completions total. Short, high-percentage throws also help both a rookie quarterback and an "over" bet, but Watson hasn't been particularly concerned with that. Under 9.0 percent of Watson's total number of attempts have been at or behind the line of scrimmage, lowest of any qualified quarterback. Over 69 percent of Watson's total number of attempts have been at least 5 yards downfield, second highest in the league behind Jameis Winston. So Watson, a quarterback who hasn't used high-percentage throws and is making his fourth career start, faces a Chiefs defense that allows the best completion percentage in the league both overall and on short throws.
Twenty completions might be a tall order for Watson. Averaging his and the Chiefs' completion percentages gets you 58.15 percent, leaving Watson needing 35 attempts to hit the over. He hasn't done that yet in his NFL career, averaging 30.3 in his three starts. Plus, the Chiefs will have more of the ball than any of the teams Watson has faced yet, as Kansas City ranks ninth in time of possession. None of the teams that he's started against have ranked higher than 12th.
Pick: Under
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Sunday night's tilt between the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bet.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday afternoon.
Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (PK)
Total: 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent on Kansas City
Phil Steele
The Chiefs continued their undefeated season by beating the Washington Redskins by the narrowest of margins last Monday, and the Texans are off of a significant beat-down of division rival Tennessee Titans. This marks the third consecutive year that these two teams have met in Houston, with the Chiefs taking the 2015 meeting and the Texans coming out victorious by a touchdown a season ago. With Kansas City heading to Houston on short rest and the emergence of Deshaun Watson under center for the Texans, there's a good chance that the Chiefs' perfect season could be erased here. I will pass on this matchup, even with Kansas City covering recently to the tune of an outstanding 9-1 ATS mark.
Pick: Pass
Erin Rynning
Watson and the Texans have broken out in the last two weeks against the subpar defenses of the New England Patriots and Titans, and the Texans have featured a few interesting wrinkles with Watson under center. Alex Smith is also lighting up the scoreboard, on track to post a career year while completing 76 percent of his passes. However, the task will be trickier for Watson this week against the Chiefs defense and coordinator Bob Sutton, as it will be for Smith against the vaunted front of the Texans, as J.J. Watt rounds into form. This one will play out more like last season's 19-12 final.
Pick: Under
Warren Sharp
The Chiefs are the lone 4-0 team in the league, but so much is misunderstood regarding their performance this year. They were losing to the Patriots entering the fourth quarter in Week 1 and had to rally for the win. Last week, they were losing to the Redskins at home and had to again rally from behind in the fourth quarter for the win. In between, they were outplayed by the Los Angeles Chargers but were aided by plus-3 turnovers and the massive inefficiency of the Chargers offense, and then they were plus-2 in turnovers against the Philadelphia Eagles in a win that required 14 points in the fourth quarter. In both scenarios, they lost the first-down battle and allowed more trips into the red zone but won the turnover battle and made clutch plays when they needed them. The Texans defense will present the toughest challenge for the Chiefs offense yet this year. Prior to this game, the Chiefs haven't faced a defense ranking in the top half of the league in third-down defense, and the Texans' defense ranks fourth best. The Texans also rank fifth in early down success rate (EDSR), which means they may be able to force the Chiefs into third downs often. The Texans offense, led by Watson, is highly dynamic and should present plenty of challenges for the Chiefs defense.
ATS Pick: Houston
Mike Clay
ATS pick: Houston and the under
Prediction: Houston 23, Kansas City 21
Parolin's prop bets
62.5 receiving yards by Tyreek Hill (O/U -110)
Tyreek Hill isn't a target vacuum. He's averaging 6.8 targets per game, tied for 39th in the league. He's not likely to hit an over by accumulating enough short catches, but rather with one or two plays. That makes his production far more difficult to predict. He's had two games with more than 75 receiving yards, and two shy of 45. Hill ranks third among wide receivers in yards after catch this season, and teams that have limited his YAC have controlled his production best. In the two overs, Hill averaged 7.3 yards after catch per reception, while in the two unders, he sat at 5.1 YAC per reception. As for Sunday's opponent, the Texans have allowed the fewest yards after catch in the league (254), a 3.9 per-reception average that ranks fourth best. That's a good start for Houston's ability to keep Hill in check.
What about the deep ball? After all, Alex Smith is 8-of-13 on throws at least 20 yards downfield, tied with Jared Goff for the best completion percentage in the league on deep throws. The Houston defense is allowing completions on 8-of-16 wide receiver targets at least 20 yards downfield, a 50 percent completion percentage that's tied for third worst. Is there cause for concern here? Not exactly, as the Texans defense gave up five of their eight completions to Tom Brady in Foxborough, leaving everyone else at 3-of-8 on those throws. Smith's completion percentage looks great, but it is a small sample. From 2013 to 2016, Smith completed 32 percent of those throws, 31st among qualified quarterbacks in that span. Houston should hold Hill.
Pick: Under
19.5 completions by Deshaun Watson (O/U -110)
All things considered, it has looked pretty easy for Watson so far. In three starts, the rookie has completed 68 percent of his passes, averaging 20.7 completions per game -- but Kansas City's defense is easily the toughest Watson has faced so far. The Chiefs are allowing a league-best 55.3 completion percentage on throws 10 yards or fewer, a critical component of a completions total. Short, high-percentage throws also help both a rookie quarterback and an "over" bet, but Watson hasn't been particularly concerned with that. Under 9.0 percent of Watson's total number of attempts have been at or behind the line of scrimmage, lowest of any qualified quarterback. Over 69 percent of Watson's total number of attempts have been at least 5 yards downfield, second highest in the league behind Jameis Winston. So Watson, a quarterback who hasn't used high-percentage throws and is making his fourth career start, faces a Chiefs defense that allows the best completion percentage in the league both overall and on short throws.
Twenty completions might be a tall order for Watson. Averaging his and the Chiefs' completion percentages gets you 58.15 percent, leaving Watson needing 35 attempts to hit the over. He hasn't done that yet in his NFL career, averaging 30.3 in his three starts. Plus, the Chiefs will have more of the ball than any of the teams Watson has faced yet, as Kansas City ranks ninth in time of possession. None of the teams that he's started against have ranked higher than 12th.
Pick: Under
