Tuesday 10/10/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Post Bonus Plays / requests / comments/ trends and concerns here.
 

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes

Finger Lakes - Race 2

EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA * PICK 4 (50 Cent Minimum: Races 2-3-4-5) * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 2-3)


Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $9,000 • Post: 1:37P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE OCTOBER 10, 2016. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 10 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE AUGUST 10 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * TIZMAS: Today is a route and this is the horse's third start after a layoff, after two sp rint prep races. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. TOTAL ACCOUNTING: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. RIVER MONSTER: Horse has run a Good Race within the la st 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
1
TIZMAS
5/2

9/2
2
TOTAL ACCOUNTING
4/1

6/1
6
RIVER MONSTER
5/1

6/1
 

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Indiana Downs

Indiana Downs - Race 6

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)


Allowance • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $32,500 • Post: 4:25P
(PLUS UP TO 40% INDIANA STATE BRED SUPPLEMENT) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF SINCE SEPTEMBER 10 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $25,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 1/16 ON THE MAIN TRACK.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * SECRET HOUSE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. HART HILLS ROAD: Horse ran ks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ROLLIN SMOKE: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). ARCHANGEL ROSE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Powe r Rating. TITO TONIGHT: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50.
1
SECRET HOUSE
3/1

6/1
5
HART HILLS ROAD
8/1

7/1
9
ROLLIN SMOKE
12/1

7/1
4
ARCHANGEL ROSE
20/1

7/1
8
TITO TONIGHT
4/1

8/1
 

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The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Mountaineer Park - Race #9 - Post: 9:56pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,300 Class Rating: 66

Rating: 3

#3 JOE HARDOON (ML=20/1)
#4 ON THE ZIP (ML=9/2)
#2 MY NICKY (ML=20/1)


JOE HARDOON - Don't often see a beneficial ROI like +378. This jockey/handler twosome has done well together over the last year. The August 16th affair at Presque Isle Downs was at a class level of (76). Dropping to a lower level a significant amount, so he should be in a good place. ON THE ZIP - Good return on investment for this jockey and handler pair. Look at this gelding's PP lines. With each affair he keeps getting closer. The fact that this gelding is entered right back into a race so quickly means he's fit and ready. Demczyk drops him down to this class level. You don't need too much more from the horse's history to think this animal will be tough to beat at this level. Have to give this gelding a chance. Ran a nice effort last race out within the last month. MY NICKY - Trainer Cox moves this thoroughbred to a lower class level to face a lower class of horses. Look for a strong race racing against these lower level horses. Past performance data show this thoroughbred with 3 improving speed ratings. Rivera should be on a live horse right here in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 TOOMANYFORBENNY (ML=6/5), #5 PRECIOUS ENERGY (ML=7/2),

TOOMANYFORBENNY - Hasn't been on the Mountaineer Park oval in the last few weeks. Cause for some concern. PRECIOUS ENERGY - If you keep choosing these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be disappointed frequently. Pace makes the race. Hard for this speedball to be able to handle the pace pressure from the rest of this field.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #3 JOE HARDOON on top if we're getting at least 4/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,3,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,3,4] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[2,3,4] with [2,3,4] with [1,2,3,4,6] with [1,2,3,4,6] Total Cost: $36
 

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The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #1 - Post: 12:55pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $45,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating: 4

#7 MOON CHANT (ML=8/1)
#2 MRS. REMBRANDT (ML=10/1)


MOON CHANT - Houghton brings her right back. I propose you stick with this hot filly. MRS. REMBRANDT - Rider jumped on this filly's back for the 1st ride on September 17th. Should be in touch with the equine even better in this race. Can't help but like the second time addition of Lasix by the trainer today. What that tells me is Vega thinks she can win.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 ULTIMATE CHALLENGE (ML=2/1), #3 SWEET CANDY DANCE (ML=3/1), #1 LISA LIMON (ML=5/1),

ULTIMATE CHALLENGE - This probable favorite may be out of condition without any recent morning activity. SWEET CANDY DANCE - Didn't show much run last time. Probably won't make an impact today. Finished eighth in her most recent performance with a quite unimpressive fig. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this group. LISA LIMON - Most unsatisfactory speed rating last time around the track at Laurel at 1 1/16 miles. Don't feel this mount will improve too much in today's event.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#7 MOON CHANT to win at post-time odds of 2/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
 

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The Walker Group at Thistledown

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - SA - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $18200 Class Rating: 100

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS IN 2016 - 2017. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 10 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 2 SR. QUISQUEYANO 5/2

# 1 PALTARREVENGE 3/1

# 3 GATEWAY ARCH 6/1

I've got to go with SR. QUISQUEYANO. Radosevich has one of the best winning percentages in this group of horses with entries running at this distance and surface. Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a strong handicapping key. This horse ranks at the top in this lot. Should keep the strong string of finish positions intact this time out. PALTARREVENGE - Has run very well when racing a dirt route race. Ran a sharp last race. GATEWAY ARCH - It's a good sign that Hamm is using Rosendo on this horse. Hamm has a strong win percentage with horses racing in dirt route races.
 

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The Walker Group at Zia Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $38500 Class Rating: 97

FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 10, 2017 ALLOWED 3 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 STORMIN THE JEWELS 3/2

# 6 D E LOVER 3/1

# 8 E BAR GOLD 15/1

STORMIN THE JEWELS looks very good to best this field. He has to be given consideration given the competitive speed figs. Must be carefully examined based on the decent speed rating posted in the last contest. He has earned respectable figures under today's conditions and will most likely fare well versus this group. D E LOVER - Reason to like this gelding as he has in the saddle one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last month. The average class figure alone makes this one a solid contender.
 

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Rangers won three of last four games with St Louis, which lost 5-0/6-3 in last two visits to Manhattan. Under is 2-0-1 in last three series games. Blues are off to a 3-0 start, with road wins in SO/OT- over is 2-1 in their games. New York lost two of its first three games (over 2-1), splitting pair at home.

Home side won last four Columbus-Carolina games; Blue Jackets lost 5-3/2-1ot in last two visits to Raleigh. Last three series games stayed under. Columbus split their first two games (over 1-1), losing 5-1 at Chicago in their only road game. Hurricanes beat Minnesota 5-4 in OT in its only game so far.

Chicago won its last seven games with Montreal, winning last three visits here by a combined margin of 11-3. Over is 3-1-1 in last five series games. Blackhawks won two of first three games (over 3-0), losing first road game in OT at Toronto Monday. Canadiens went 1-2 on their opening road trip (over 1-1-1)- they scored four goals in the three games.

Flyers won four of their last five games with Nashville; they won 6-3/4-2 in last two visits to Music City. Over is 3-1-1 in last five series games played here. Philly won two of its first three games, all on road (under 2-1). Predators lost 4-3/4-0 in their first two games (over 1-1), both on road.

Detroit is 7-3 in its last ten games with the Dallas Stars; Red Wings won four of last five visits to Texas. Under is 3-1 in last four series games. Red Wings won their first two games 4-2/2-1ot (over 1-1). Dallas lost 4-2/2-1 in their first two games (over 1-1), losing in OT to Las Vegas in their only home game.

Ottawa won four of last five games with Vancouver, but they lost two of last three visits here; home side won five of last six series games. Under is 3-1 in last four. Senators lost their first two games, both at home, both in SO (over 1-1). Canucks beat Edmonton 3-2 in their home opener Saturday, their only game so far.

Las Vegas plays its first-ever home game after winning its first two games on road, both by 2-1 scores. Knights won 2-1 in Arizona in OT Saturday. Coyotes are 0-2 with two one-goal losses (over 1-1); they lost 5-4 at Anaheim in their only road game
 

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NHL Trend report

8:00 PM
COLUMBUS vs. CAROLINA
Columbus is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Columbus's last 5 games
Carolina is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games

8:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. NY RANGERS
St. Louis is 8-3 SU in their last 11 games when playing on the road against NY Rangers
St. Louis is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games on the road
NY Rangers are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against St. Louis
NY Rangers are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing St. Louis

8:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. MONTREAL
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Montreal is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Chicago
Montreal is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago

9:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. NASHVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing on the road against Nashville
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Nashville's last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Nashville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia

9:30 PM
DETROIT vs. DALLAS
Detroit is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Dallas's last 23 games at home
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

11:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. LAS VEGAS
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 11 games
No trends available

11:00 PM
OTTAWA vs. VANCOUVER
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Ottawa's last 7 games when playing on the road against Vancouver
Ottawa is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Vancouver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Vancouver's last 7 games when playing at home against Ottawa
Vancouver is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Ottawa
 

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NHL Long Sheet

ST LOUIS (3-0-0-0, 6 pts.) at NY RANGERS (1-2-0-0, 2 pts.) - 10/10/2017, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY RANGERS is 3-1 (+2.0 Units) against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
NY RANGERS is 3-1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.1 Units)

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COLUMBUS (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) at CAROLINA (1-0-0-0, 2 pts.) - 10/10/2017, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLUMBUS is 26-65 ATS (+118.6 Units) in road games on Tuesday nights since 1996.
COLUMBUS is 27-10 ATS (+38.0 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
COLUMBUS is 20-8 ATS (+28.6 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 73-86 ATS (-60.5 Units) in home games after a non-conference game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 5-3 (+2.0 Units) against the spread versus COLUMBUS over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 5-3-0 straight up against COLUMBUS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.8 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (2-0-0-1, 5 pts.) at MONTREAL (1-2-0-0, 2 pts.) - 10/10/2017, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 4-0 (+4.1 Units) against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-0-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.7 Units)

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PHILADELPHIA (2-1-0-0, 4 pts.) at NASHVILLE (0-2-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/10/2017, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 12-27 ATS (+41.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 199-171 ATS (+381.0 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game since 1996.
NASHVILLE is 35-23 ATS (+6.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 34-42 ATS (-30.9 Units) first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 32-40 ATS (-20.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 (+2.9 Units) against the spread versus NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1-0 straight up against NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.0 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (2-0-0-0, 4 pts.) at DALLAS (0-2-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/10/2017, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 111-131 ATS (-85.2 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1996.
DETROIT is 430-322 ATS (-127.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
DALLAS is 11-2 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 34-50 ATS (-26.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 10-27 ATS (-22.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 2-2 (+0.3 Units) against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 2-2-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.8 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OTTAWA (0-0-0-2, 2 pts.) at VANCOUVER (1-0-0-0, 2 pts.) - 10/10/2017, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VANCOUVER is 9-2 ATS (+6.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 55-48 ATS (+107.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 15-11 ATS (+29.3 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 94-72 ATS (+166.4 Units) in road games on Tuesday nights since 1996.
OTTAWA is 22-14 ATS (+37.0 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 17-11 ATS (+31.1 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
OTTAWA is 31-22 ATS (+58.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
VANCOUVER is 369-341 ATS (-27.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 3-1 (+1.9 Units) against the spread versus VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
OTTAWA is 3-1-0 straight up against VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.5 Units)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (0-1-0-1, 1 pts.) at VEGAS (2-0-0-0, 4 pts.) - 10/10/2017, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 5-29 ATS (+65.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
VEGAS is 1-0 (+1.6 Units) against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
VEGAS is 1-0-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.0 Units)
 

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Home Teams and Overs dominating 1st week of 2017-18 National Hockey League season.

Home Teams: 22-9-3-4

Overs: 22-13-3
 

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COLUMBUS @ CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Columbus's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Columbus's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games
Carolina is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Columbus

ST. LOUIS @ NY RANGERS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games on the road
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Rangers's last 5 games
NY Rangers is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home

CHICAGO @ MONTREAL
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Montreal is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago

PHILADELPHIA @ NASHVILLE
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Nashville
Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Nashville is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Nashville's last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

DETROIT @ DALLAS
Detroit is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Detroit is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Dallas's last 22 games at home
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

OTTAWA @ VANCOUVER
Ottawa is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
Ottawa is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Vancouver
Vancouver is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Ottawa
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Vancouver's last 7 games when playing at home against Ottawa

ARIZONA @ LAS VEGAS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 11 games
 

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StatFox Super Situations

PHILADELPHIA at NASHVILLE
Play On - Any team against the money line (PHILADELPHIA) off a road win by 1 goal, a good team (60% to 70%) playing a team with a losing record in the first half of the season 47-13 over the last 5 seasons. ( 78.3% | 30.9 units )

PHILADELPHIA at NASHVILLE
Play Against - Road teams against the money line (PHILADELPHIA) after allowing 2 goals or less in 2 straight games against opponent after a blowout loss by 4 goals or more in their previous game 44-19 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.8% | 26.5 units )

PHILADELPHIA at NASHVILLE
Play On - Any team against the money line (PHILADELPHIA) off a road win by 1 goal, good team, winning 60-70% or more of their games on the season in the first half of the season 89-44 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.9% | 40.6 units )
 

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NHL Situational Betting

Tuesday October 10

St. Louis Blues at New York Rangers –
Two teams are on a back-to-back on Tuesday night. The Blues are one of those teams, as they make the two-game swing through the boroughs of New York. The Rangers are Tuesday night’s opponent. This will be the fourth game in six nights for the Rangers. As teams are trying to get back into the flow of the season, these can be some tough spots. Keep an eye on the goaltending rotation for the Blues to see how they handle the Monday/Tuesday B2B. Perhaps we could see a bit of value on St. Louis if Jake Allen is the one that gets the nod.

Philadelphia Flyers at Nashville Predators – This is the Home Opener for the Nashville Predators, who captivated the entire Music City with last year’s Stanley Cup Finals run. That team will get honored during a pregame ceremony. Bettors seem pretty split on how to handicap these situations. Some believe that the ceremony is a distraction and can lead to a slow start. Others like playing on the emotion of the night. Whichever angle you prefer, you’ll have the chance to play it here in this one. The Predators are in a good spot here from a travel standpoint, since the Flyers are working their way back from a California swing to start the season. They played three games in four nights in San Jose, Los Angeles, and Anaheim and won two of those three games. They’ll host Washington on Saturday.

Arizona Coyotes at Vegas Golden Knights – It is going to be a very emotional night in Las Vegas on Tuesday. It is the Home Opener for the Knights in their inaugural season and very much a winnable one. The pregame will likely include a tribute to the victims of the senseless shooting that happened on October 1. The Knights are also 2-0 already, which is a bit of a surprise. The Coyotes are a team that should be on the rise with some good, young talent and a young, aggressive GM in John Chayka. The Coyotes should be a good value to spoil the opener for the Knights with the Rapid Revenge Theory in play off of Arizona’s home loss to Vegas on Saturday.
 

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NHL Picks and Betting Tips
By Parker Michaels
Bangthebook.com

It’s another busy night with seven games highlighted by a special night in Vegas with the Golden Knights home opener. Let’s get right into things.

ST. LOUIS BLUES @ NY RANGERS

Projected Goaltenders
St. Louis – Carter Hutton (confirmed)
NY Rangers – Henrik Lundqvist/Ondrej Pavelec (unknown)

Injury Report
St. Louis – Steen (out), Fabbri (out), Berglund (out), Bouwmeester (out)
NY Rangers – no significant injuries

You have to give the Blues credit for coming out and winning their first three games while being shorthanded a few key regulars. Mike Yeo turned their season around last year and he has them playing a good aggressive system. The defense continues to jump up in the play to create offense but that’s still leaving them vulnerable on the backend. For now, Jake Allen has looked great and made the big save when needed. There’s a couple of big concerns with the Blues, however, in that they are taking too many penalties and that’s going to catch up to them soon, maybe here tonight. They’re also fading late in games, allowing teams back into all three games they’ve played. Tarasenko sure looks great though with an early three goals.
The Rangers were about to hit the panic button until Henrik Lundqvist saved the day with a 34-save shutout Sunday night versus Montreal. Head coach Vigneault went with seven defensemen and only 11 forwards and benched 18-year old Filip Chytil who didn’t look ready for the NHL in his debut and is likely headed back to Europe. Defenseman Brendan Smith was also benched after his meltdown in Toronto the previous game. New York won the game but they still gave up a lot of quality scoring chances and that’s still a cause for concern moving forward.

No line yet on this game but I suspect it will open around my range. Carter Hutton will make his first start for St. Louis. Lundqvist is likely to start for New York but Pavelec was originally scheduled to start on Sunday so there’s a chance Vigneault still wants to get him an early start. We’ll see what happens in the morning skate and go from there.

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS @ CAROLINA HURRICANES

Projected Goaltenders
Columbus – Sergei Bobrovsky (confirmed)
Carolina – Scott Darling (confirmed)

Injury Report
Columbus – Jenner (out)
Carolina – Stempniak (out), van Riemsdyk (doubtful)

Josh Anderson will make his Columbus season debut after a one game conditioning stint in the AHL (where he fired seven shots on goal). Nick Foligno is going to jump up to center the first line tonight, swapping places with Dubinsky. Other than that, not much going on here.

This will be an early season benchmark game for Carolina as Columbus is one of those teams who Carolina is hoping to jump in the standings this year to secure a playoff spot.

Trevor van Riemsdyk is doubtful tonight after missing Monday’s practice with a lower-body issue.

This opener is a little short so we’re going to play Carolina tonight at -124.

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS @ MONTREAL CANADIENS

Projected Goaltenders
Chicago – Corey Crawford (confirmed)
Montreal – Carey Price (probable)

Injury Report
Chicago – Hossa (out), Schmaltz (out)
Montreal – Schlemko (out)

It’s the home opener for the Montreal Canadiens which is always a special moment for the storied franchise. The Hawks are coming into town on a back-to-back after getting worked in Toronto last night.

Chicago looked great to start the game but the Leafs depth grinded them down with continuous pressure throughout the game. The absence of center Nick Schmaltz looked noticeable last night as Kane’s line was completely ineffective and dare I say, Patty Kane looked invisible. Schmaltz will also miss tonight’s game.

As per the norm in the Montreal media, a level of panic has already set in with the alarm bells sounding. It’s the same preseason narratives with “the defense isn’t as good as last year” and “they still can’t score”. Blah, blah, blah.

The offense has had trouble finishing (if you discard the two disallowed goals the other night) but it’s certainly not for a lack of creating offense. They’ve averaged 37.6 shots on goal over three games and generated 27 scoring chances alone against the Rangers.

Jonathan Drouin is off to a slow start and while I still think that’s a mistake having him at center, he’s too talented to go through an extended slump so look for him to get on the scoresheet soon. One bright spot has been the third line of Charles Hudon and Artturi Lehkonen who have been dominating possession and centerman Thomas Plekanec looks revitalized this year between the two youngsters.

Crawford will get the start in his hometown and he’s always loved playing here. Price is expected to get the nod for the Canadiens.

No line yet but this one might open a bit short, in which case we’ll probably look at the Canadiens or nothing here. I’ll update on Twitter.

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS @ NASHVILLE PREDATORS

Projected Goaltenders
Philadelphia – Michal Neuvirth (confirmed)
Nashville – Pekka Rinne (probable)

Injury Report
Philadelphia – no significant injuries
Nashville – Ellis (out), Fiala (probable), Josi (probable)

It’s the home opener for the Western Conference champions and as such they will hold a pre-game ceremony with the banner raising. The Preds are coming off being shutout and that has usually meant a strong bounce back in the next game as they are 9-4-2 under coach Laviolette after being goose-egged.

Nashville’s offense is off to a very slow start as they’ve only generated 28 total scoring chances through their first two games which is tied for the lowest in the league (for teams with minimum two games played). Nick Bonino has looked out of sorts which was a concern of mine in the season preview. He’s still without a point and only has two shots on net. It’s still very early and there’s an adjustment period moving to a new team but it’s still something to keep an eye on for Nashville.

Defensively, the team has really missed Ryan Ellis to solidify that strong top-four. Josi, Ekholm and Subban have been excellent but the bottom three of Irwin, Weber and Bitetto have looked downright terrible with terrible possession numbers and Alexei Emelin was so ineffective in the opener he was a healthy scratch last game.

It might be time for prospect Sam Girard to get into a game (he can’t do any worse). Girard rotated with the defense in Monday’s practice but that was likely because Josi was absent. Coach said it was just a maintenance day but seems pretty early in the season for one of those. You never know early in the season and he’s probably fine for tonight but I listed him in the injury report to keep an eye on as he’d be a huge absence. Kevin Fiala fully practiced yesterday and is likely to return tonight. He’d be a nice boost to the offense.

For the Flyers, this will be the final game in a season opening four game road trip. Philadelphia is off to an impressive start as they’ve shown a balanced attack with a surprisingly deep lineup. The fourth line, in particular, of Taylor Leier, Scott Laughton and Michael Raffl have been flat out dominating. It’s a huge upgrade over last year’s rotation of Bellemare and VandeVelde, eh Flyers fans?

Michal Neuvirth looked good in his first game and he’s getting the start here tonight. I would have played Philly here off the opener of -157 but it was hit early and now sits at -146. It’s Philly or nothing here so we’ll keep an eye on it and see if it goes back up.

DETROIT RED WINGS @ DALLAS STARS

Projected Goaltenders
Detroit – Jimmy Howard (confirmed)
Dallas – Ben Bishop (probable)

Injury Report
Detroit – Kronwall (out)
Dallas – Hamhuis (questionable), Hanzal (probable)

Detroit at Dallas will feature a 2-0 team versus a 0-2 team. If you thought that 2-0 team would be the Dallas Star you aren’t alone. It’s been a tough start with losses to Vegas and St. Louis but there shouldn’t be any reason to panic here. The team has actually looked quite good through the majority of their two games, leading 2-1 against Vegas into the third period before Ben Bishop took a puck to the mask and was forced to leave and not allowed to re-enter (concussion protocol). The team kinda fell into a lapse then and Kari Lehtonen gave up a couple tough ones. Then the Stars fell behind 3-0 early to the Blues before proceeding to mostly dominate the final 40 minutes, eventually losing 4-2.

The Stars actually lead the NHL in shots per game at an eye-popping 43.0 per game and also lead the lead in fewest shots against at just 25.5 per game. Don’t worry about the Stars, they’ll be fine.

Martin Hanzal is expected to return and getting banged up Saturday night but Dan Hamhuis is dealing with a groin issue and is expected to be a game-time decision. We’ll see if they confirm one way or another during the morning skate but he has little impact to the line as it is.

Detroit is off to a surprising 2-0 start and they can thank Jimmy Howard because honestly they haven’t really looked too impressive. Howard has stopped 74 of 77 shots for an early .961 save percentage. The fact they’ve given up 38.5 shots per game probably tells you how good the defense has been.

Look for Dallas to get into the win column here tonight but based on the current line there’s no value to us.

OTTAWA SENATORS @ VANCOUVER CANUCKS

Projected Goaltenders
Ottawa – Craig Anderson (confirmed)
Vancouver – Jacob Markstrom/Anders Nilsson (unknown)

Injury Report
Ottawa – MacArthur (out), Karlsson (out), Oduya (out), Harpur (out), Hoffman (questionable)
Vancouver – no significant injuries

The Ottawa Senators begin a three game western Canada road trip tonight and they’ll do so without the services of Erik Karlsson (and Johnny Oduya) as neither made the trip. It’s possible they could still jump on a plane and meet the team later today but that usually never happens so don’t get your hopes up, Senators fans. Ben Harpur was called up and proceeded to injury himself in Saturday’s game and has been placed on IR. So, the highly anticipated debut of prospect Thomas Chabot will happen tonight (and Christian Jaros, also called up). If you read my season preview for Ottawa you know the hype around Chabot. He could be a game-changer for the Senators blueline.

Mike Hoffman missed Monday’s practice due to the flu and is questionable tonight. We’ll get an update on his condition at the morning skate and his availability will likely influence our decision on betting this game. If he’s in, there might be some value on Ottawa. I say might because right now it’s sitting at my threshold of 8 cents under the cut-off. We’ll see if this one moves at all and when we know about Hoffman I’ll update on Twitter.

Vancouver looked impressive in their debut win over Edmonton. One thing to note from that game is the lower ice-time for the Sedins. Henrik only played 13:30 (and only 7:49 at even-strength) while Daniel played 14:02 (7:55 even strength). They talked after the game about how they are comfortable playing a lesser role this year and allowing the younger guys to take on increased responsibility. It might have been a different story if Vancouver had been trailing at any point but it’s something to keep an eye on moving forward. Increased ice-time for the Horvat and Gagner lines could be beneficial for them. Now if only they would allow Brock Boeser to play more.

ARIZONA COYOTES @ VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS

Projected Goaltenders
Arizona – Antti Raanta (confirmed)
Vegas – Marc-Andre Fleury (probable)

Injury Report
Arizona – Chychrun (out)
Vegas – Shipachyov (doubtful), Theodore (doubtful)

The final game of the night is a difficult one to discuss and I’m not completely sure about the ethical way to proceed. It’s the home opener for the Golden Knights and it’s going to be an extremely emotional game for the home side as they honor the victims of the mass murder tragedy that befell Las Vegas ten days ago. Some people will think we shouldn’t be discussing betting on such a game and that’s where my ethical side comes into play. While I can see where those people are coming from, I think we should do just as the fans who will be attending the game tonight. Pay our respects pre-game, then enjoy the game on the ice. It’s all part of the healing process.

As for the Golden Knights themselves, this team is mired in heavy distraction right now. On top of the tragic events, GM George McPhee has had to answer questions about why Vadim Shipachyov isn’t on the roster. There’s rumors that Shipachyov is prepared to return to Russia and everything. What a mess. He’s under contract and not allowed to leave so it’s really a moot point (unless he pulls a Kovalchuk). Shipachyov is actually in Vegas right now as he never did report to the Chicago Wolves in the AHL. Vegas still has a mess of defensemen on their roster to sort out but whenever they are able to work something out, Shipachyov will already be in town ready to play.

In terms of the game, it’s going to be a heightened emotional state unlike other pregame ceremonies we’re accustomed too. The pre-game festivities planned for the home opener have been put on hold and will now be done before Friday night’s game. There will be a different special pre-game ceremony tonight where the team will honor the victims and first responders. The Vegas players themselves will actually be taking part on ice in the ceremony with fans. The team has said tonight will be about the city and not the game and they’ll get back to the team on Friday. It should be an incredible tribute.

From the Arizona view, Antti Raanta looked outstanding in his Coyotes debut last game, making 42 saves despite the team blowing another third period lead. Arizona has looked really good through 40 minutes in both of their games but the inexperience has shown in the third with blown leads resulting in two losses. It’s something they’ll get used to and get better at, just as the young Maple Leafs have.

The current line is giving us some value so Arizona at -102 is going to be our second bet for tonight.
 

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Projected Starting Goalies:

1 St. Louis Blues +110 Over 5½ +100 Hutton: (last season) 13-8-2, 2.39, .913 (2-0-0, 1.63, .945)
2 New York Rangers -130 Under 5½ -120 *Lundqvist: 1-1-0, 3.48, 0.895 (4-5-0, 2.28, .923)

3 Columbus Blue Jackets +110 Over 5½ -110 *Bobrovsky: 1-0-0, 0.00, 1.000 (8-5-0, 2.21, .927)
4 Carolina Hurricanes -130 Under 5½ -110 Darling: 1-0-0, 3.69, 0.852 (43 minutes, 0-0-0, 0.00, 1.000)

5 Chicago Blackhawks -120 Over 5½ +110 Crawford: 2-0-0, 1.00, 0.968 (7-0-2, 1.55, .951)
6 Montreal Canadiens +100 Under 5½ -130 *Price: 1-2-0, 3.37, 0.905 (3-4-0, 2.57, .918)

7 Philadelphia Flyers +120 Over 5½ +100 *Elliott: 2-0-0, 2.49, 0.914 (8-4-0, 2.25, .921)
8 Nashville Predators -140 Under 5½ -120 *Rinne: 0-1-0, 3.18, 0.903 (4-2-2, 2.65, .914)

9 Detroit Red Wings +140 Over 5½ -115 Mrazek: (last season) 18-21-9, 3.04, .901 (1-1-0, 2.33, .912)
10 Dallas Stars -160 Under 5½ -105 Bishop: 0-0-0, 0.00, 1.000 (11-4-0, 1.92, .928)

11 Ottawa Senators -110 Over 5 -140 Anderson: 0-0-2, 2.31, 0.914 (6-12-2, 3.30, .890)
12 Vancouver Canucks -110 Under 5 +120 *Markstrom: 1-0-0, 2.01, 0.943 (0-2-0, 2.54, .919)

13 Arizona Coyotes -110 Over 5½ +110 Raanta: 0-0-1, 1.88, 0.952 (1st start vs. Vegas)
14 Vegas Golden Knights -110 Under 5½ -130 *Fleury: 2-0-0, 0.98, 0.973 (6-4-1, 1.98, .933)
 

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