CFB Trend Report
CLEMSON (6 - 0) at SYRACUSE (3 - 3) - 10/13/2017, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
SYRACUSE is 1-1 against the spread versus CLEMSON over the last 3 seasons
CLEMSON is 2-0 straight up against SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
____________________________________________________________________
WASHINGTON ST (6 - 0) at CALIFORNIA (3 - 3) - 10/13/2017, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON ST is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CALIFORNIA is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON ST is 2-0 against the spread versus CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
CALIFORNIA is 1-1 straight up against WASHINGTON ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
7:00 PM
CLEMSON vs. SYRACUSE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Clemson's last 7 games on the road
Clemson is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Syracuse
Syracuse is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Syracuse's last 5 games at home
10:30 PM
WASHINGTON STATE vs. CALIFORNIA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington State's last 7 games when playing California
Washington State is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing California
California is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of California's last 7 games when playing Washington State
Clemson QB Bryant (ankle) will probably play here, but Tigers have bye next week, so they’re not going to put him in harm’s way here, if they can help it. Clemson is 4-0 vs Syracuse in ACC play after LY’s 54-0 beatdown (565-277 TY); they’ve won 37-27 (-30.5), 49-14 (-14) in two trips to central NY. Tigers have road wins at Louisville/Va Tech by 47-21/31-17 scores; they’re 6-9 in last 15 games as a road favorite (2-0 this year). Under Babers, Syracuse is 1-4 vs spread as a home underdog; their losses this year are by 7-9-8 points (2-0 vs spread as an underdog).
Washington State is off wins over USC/Oregon, has to guard against letdown here; Coogs hammered Cal 56-21 (-16.5) LY, after losing 10 of previous 11 meetings with the Golden Bears. Wazzu lost five of last six visits to Berkeley (dogs 4-2 vs spread). WSU is 6-0, winning 33-10 at Oregon in only road game; they’re 2-4 as road favorites under Leach. Cal lost 45-24 to Oregon two weeks ago; they lost last three games, allowed 83 points in last two. Golden Bears covered their last three games as a home underdog- under is 3-1 in their last four games.
CLEMSON (6 - 0) at SYRACUSE (3 - 3) - 10/13/2017, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
SYRACUSE is 1-1 against the spread versus CLEMSON over the last 3 seasons
CLEMSON is 2-0 straight up against SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
____________________________________________________________________
WASHINGTON ST (6 - 0) at CALIFORNIA (3 - 3) - 10/13/2017, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON ST is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CALIFORNIA is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON ST is 2-0 against the spread versus CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
CALIFORNIA is 1-1 straight up against WASHINGTON ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
7:00 PM
CLEMSON vs. SYRACUSE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Clemson's last 7 games on the road
Clemson is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Syracuse
Syracuse is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Syracuse's last 5 games at home
10:30 PM
WASHINGTON STATE vs. CALIFORNIA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington State's last 7 games when playing California
Washington State is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing California
California is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of California's last 7 games when playing Washington State
Clemson QB Bryant (ankle) will probably play here, but Tigers have bye next week, so they’re not going to put him in harm’s way here, if they can help it. Clemson is 4-0 vs Syracuse in ACC play after LY’s 54-0 beatdown (565-277 TY); they’ve won 37-27 (-30.5), 49-14 (-14) in two trips to central NY. Tigers have road wins at Louisville/Va Tech by 47-21/31-17 scores; they’re 6-9 in last 15 games as a road favorite (2-0 this year). Under Babers, Syracuse is 1-4 vs spread as a home underdog; their losses this year are by 7-9-8 points (2-0 vs spread as an underdog).
Washington State is off wins over USC/Oregon, has to guard against letdown here; Coogs hammered Cal 56-21 (-16.5) LY, after losing 10 of previous 11 meetings with the Golden Bears. Wazzu lost five of last six visits to Berkeley (dogs 4-2 vs spread). WSU is 6-0, winning 33-10 at Oregon in only road game; they’re 2-4 as road favorites under Leach. Cal lost 45-24 to Oregon two weeks ago; they lost last three games, allowed 83 points in last two. Golden Bears covered their last three games as a home underdog- under is 3-1 in their last four games.
CFB Tech Trends
CLEMSON at SYRACUSE (Friday, October 13)...Dabo 7-2 vs. line last nine away from Death Valley. Tigers also on 7-2 spread uptick since late 2016. Babers 2-7 vs. spread last 9 at Carrier Dome.
Clemson, based on team trends.
WASHINGTON STATE at CALIFORNIA (Friday, October 14)...Leach covered last 2 and 3 of last 4 vs. Sonny Dykes' Cal. Cougs 16-7 vs. spread as visitor since 2013.
Washington State, based on team and series trends.
CLEMSON at SYRACUSE (Friday, October 13)...Dabo 7-2 vs. line last nine away from Death Valley. Tigers also on 7-2 spread uptick since late 2016. Babers 2-7 vs. spread last 9 at Carrier Dome.
Clemson, based on team trends.
WASHINGTON STATE at CALIFORNIA (Friday, October 14)...Leach covered last 2 and 3 of last 4 vs. Sonny Dykes' Cal. Cougs 16-7 vs. spread as visitor since 2013.
Washington State, based on team and series trends.
College Football Picks: With no marquee games, upset alerts
October 11, 2017
Twenty-two teams in the Top 25 will play this weekend and no one game features two of them.
That doesn't happen much and it is especially rare for it to happen after the first month of the season, when conference play kicks into gear. The last time there was weekend with no games matching ranked teams after September was November 2009.
So while there are no must-see matchups on the slate, there are plenty of possibilities for upsets that could shake up the rankings a week after six ranked teams lost, including No. 12 Oklahoma and No. 17 Michigan.
Among the unbeaten teams, No. 6 TCU looks to have the toughest test, going on the road to play Kansas State. No. 11 Miami has to avoid a post-Florida State hangover against a Georgia Tech team that can make a good case to be ranked. No. 21 Michigan State also has a potentially tricky follow-up to its big victory against Michigan, traveling to Minnesota to face the Gophers.
Of course, last week Iowa State beat Oklahoma as a 30-point underdog so you never really know where the potential pitfalls lie for the College Football Playoff contenders.
The picks:
FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
No. 2 Clemson (minus 22 +) at Syracuse
QB Kelly Bryant (ankle) expects to play for the Tigers, but if all goes well he won't need to for very long ... CLEMSON 42-17.
No. 8 Washington State (minus 13 +) at California
The Cougars defense is tied for the Pac-12 lead in tackles for loss with 49; the Bears have allowed the most TFLs in the Pac-12 at 50 ... WASHINGTON STATE 35-20.
Record last week: 19-5 straight up; 14-10-1 against the spread.
Record this season: 104-30 straight up; 54-66-4 against the spread.
Upset specials: 3-3 (straight up).
Best bets: 4-1 (vs. points)
October 11, 2017
Twenty-two teams in the Top 25 will play this weekend and no one game features two of them.
That doesn't happen much and it is especially rare for it to happen after the first month of the season, when conference play kicks into gear. The last time there was weekend with no games matching ranked teams after September was November 2009.
So while there are no must-see matchups on the slate, there are plenty of possibilities for upsets that could shake up the rankings a week after six ranked teams lost, including No. 12 Oklahoma and No. 17 Michigan.
Among the unbeaten teams, No. 6 TCU looks to have the toughest test, going on the road to play Kansas State. No. 11 Miami has to avoid a post-Florida State hangover against a Georgia Tech team that can make a good case to be ranked. No. 21 Michigan State also has a potentially tricky follow-up to its big victory against Michigan, traveling to Minnesota to face the Gophers.
Of course, last week Iowa State beat Oklahoma as a 30-point underdog so you never really know where the potential pitfalls lie for the College Football Playoff contenders.
The picks:
FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
No. 2 Clemson (minus 22 +) at Syracuse
QB Kelly Bryant (ankle) expects to play for the Tigers, but if all goes well he won't need to for very long ... CLEMSON 42-17.
No. 8 Washington State (minus 13 +) at California
The Cougars defense is tied for the Pac-12 lead in tackles for loss with 49; the Bears have allowed the most TFLs in the Pac-12 at 50 ... WASHINGTON STATE 35-20.
Record last week: 19-5 straight up; 14-10-1 against the spread.
Record this season: 104-30 straight up; 54-66-4 against the spread.
Upset specials: 3-3 (straight up).
Best bets: 4-1 (vs. points)
NHL Situational Betting
Detroit Red Wings at Vegas Golden Knights – These situations are going to be interesting to follow all season long. The Red Wings probably won’t fall victim to the bright lights of Sin City because this is the tail end of a back-to-back after playing Arizona the night before. I’ll be curious to see how Vegas’s home ice advantage will be graded this season. I’ll also be very interested to see how the road teams fare. With the late arrival in Vegas, I’m not sure if the players will treat it as anything more than a business trip, but this is a very young Red Wings team that doesn’t have much in the way of playoff prospects.
Anaheim Ducks at Colorado Avalanche – Look for a live home dog in this spot. The Anaheim Ducks are playing a standalone, Friday night game in the altitude in Denver. The Avalanche play in Dallas the next night, which looks like a tough game, so they’ll be pushing a little bit harder to get this one. This will be the first road game for Anaheim, who returns right back home to play Buffalo and then has only one game next week with Montreal at home. It is a really strange schedule to open the season, but I don’t think they’ll be all that invested in this one, which should give Colorado an edge.
Detroit Red Wings at Vegas Golden Knights – These situations are going to be interesting to follow all season long. The Red Wings probably won’t fall victim to the bright lights of Sin City because this is the tail end of a back-to-back after playing Arizona the night before. I’ll be curious to see how Vegas’s home ice advantage will be graded this season. I’ll also be very interested to see how the road teams fare. With the late arrival in Vegas, I’m not sure if the players will treat it as anything more than a business trip, but this is a very young Red Wings team that doesn’t have much in the way of playoff prospects.
Anaheim Ducks at Colorado Avalanche – Look for a live home dog in this spot. The Anaheim Ducks are playing a standalone, Friday night game in the altitude in Denver. The Avalanche play in Dallas the next night, which looks like a tough game, so they’ll be pushing a little bit harder to get this one. This will be the first road game for Anaheim, who returns right back home to play Buffalo and then has only one game next week with Montreal at home. It is a really strange schedule to open the season, but I don’t think they’ll be all that invested in this one, which should give Colorado an edge.
Rick Needham at Belmont Park
RACE #2 - BELMONT PARK - 1:28 PM EASTERN POST
6.0 FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $12,500.00 CLAIMING $25,000.00 PURSE
#3 PEDRO CERRANO
#4 DROVER CRAZY
#7 MAJOR LEAGUE
#5 GLOBAL POSITIONING
#3 PEDRO CERRANO qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," is the overall speed and pace profile leader in this field sprinting at 6.0 furlongs on the dirt, and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in five straight, including "POWER RUN WINS" in his last start, as well as in his 3rd race back. #4 DROVER CRAZY drops in class (-9), has nice early speed abilities to compliment for this sprint, and has turned in a trio of "POWER RUNS" in his respective last five outings, hitting the board in a pair, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his 4th race back.
RACE #2 - BELMONT PARK - 1:28 PM EASTERN POST
6.0 FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $12,500.00 CLAIMING $25,000.00 PURSE
#3 PEDRO CERRANO
#4 DROVER CRAZY
#7 MAJOR LEAGUE
#5 GLOBAL POSITIONING
#3 PEDRO CERRANO qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," is the overall speed and pace profile leader in this field sprinting at 6.0 furlongs on the dirt, and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in five straight, including "POWER RUN WINS" in his last start, as well as in his 3rd race back. #4 DROVER CRAZY drops in class (-9), has nice early speed abilities to compliment for this sprint, and has turned in a trio of "POWER RUNS" in his respective last five outings, hitting the board in a pair, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his 4th race back.
The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Charles Town - Race #1 - Post: 7:00pm - Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 57
Rating: 3
#8 CHALYPSO (ML=3/1)
#7 COPELAN'S CUTIE (ML=4/1)
#5 CLASSY DI (ML=9/2)
CHALYPSO - A thoroughbred coming back this soon after a sharp race is a good omen. Filly took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. COPELAN'S CUTIE - Have to give this filly a chance. Ran a nice effort last time out within the last month. She has the top earnings per start. Check out this one. CLASSY DI - Mare's win percentage is better than 50 percent in first and second starts off a layoff. Finished off the board last out at Charles Town, but was within five lengths of the winner. Opening at 9/2 makes me think she's got a chance. A repeat of that latest race on March 17th where she earned a fig of 60 looks high enough to score in this contest.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 STAR STELLA (ML=5/2), #3 MARY'S LISTED NEXT (ML=6/1),
STAR STELLA - This morning-line favorite may be out of shape without any recent works. Tough to put your dough on the win end of any entrant that finishes second and third as often as this horse does. MARY'S LISTED NEXT - This filly didn't do much for me last time out of the box. I can't play this confirmed non-winner. Gets the assignment fulfilled now and then.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #8 CHALYPSO on top if we're getting at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [7,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [5,7,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
Bar
Charles Town - Race #1 - Post: 7:00pm - Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 57
Rating: 3
#8 CHALYPSO (ML=3/1)
#7 COPELAN'S CUTIE (ML=4/1)
#5 CLASSY DI (ML=9/2)
CHALYPSO - A thoroughbred coming back this soon after a sharp race is a good omen. Filly took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. COPELAN'S CUTIE - Have to give this filly a chance. Ran a nice effort last time out within the last month. She has the top earnings per start. Check out this one. CLASSY DI - Mare's win percentage is better than 50 percent in first and second starts off a layoff. Finished off the board last out at Charles Town, but was within five lengths of the winner. Opening at 9/2 makes me think she's got a chance. A repeat of that latest race on March 17th where she earned a fig of 60 looks high enough to score in this contest.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 STAR STELLA (ML=5/2), #3 MARY'S LISTED NEXT (ML=6/1),
STAR STELLA - This morning-line favorite may be out of shape without any recent works. Tough to put your dough on the win end of any entrant that finishes second and third as often as this horse does. MARY'S LISTED NEXT - This filly didn't do much for me last time out of the box. I can't play this confirmed non-winner. Gets the assignment fulfilled now and then.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #8 CHALYPSO on top if we're getting at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [7,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [5,7,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Evangeline Downs
Evangeline Downs - Race 8
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
Allowance • 330 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 81 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 8:32P
QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * PRIVATE FIRST PRIZE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibas e Speed Rating. SWEET CALIENTE ROYAL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. PAINT YOUR JEWELS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse rank s in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
7
PRIVATE FIRST PRIZE
9/5
7/2
3
SWEET CALIENTE ROYAL
8/1
5/1
5
PAINT YOUR JEWELS
5/1
7/1
Evangeline Downs - Race 8
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
Allowance • 330 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 81 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 8:32P
QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * PRIVATE FIRST PRIZE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibas e Speed Rating. SWEET CALIENTE ROYAL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. PAINT YOUR JEWELS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse rank s in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
7
PRIVATE FIRST PRIZE
9/5
7/2
3
SWEET CALIENTE ROYAL
8/1
5/1
5
PAINT YOUR JEWELS
5/1
7/1
The Walker Group at Fresno
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 1 - Allowance - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $6500 Class Rating: 93
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 1 LA CHIKITA 2/1
# 6 BLANK CZECH 3/1
# 2 TEDDY BREWSKY 8/1
LA CHIKITA is the most respectable wager in this race. Demonstrates the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 93 speed fig which is one of the top in this field. She looks very strong in this spot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. Put up a decent Equibase speed fig last time out. BLANK CZECH - He has quite good class ratings, averaging 90, and has to be given a shot in this race. Has to be carefully examined against this field displaying strong figures as of late and an average speed fig of 81 under similar conditions. TEDDY BREWSKY - Earnings per start in short races is strong for this equine.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 1 - Allowance - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $6500 Class Rating: 93
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 1 LA CHIKITA 2/1
# 6 BLANK CZECH 3/1
# 2 TEDDY BREWSKY 8/1
LA CHIKITA is the most respectable wager in this race. Demonstrates the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 93 speed fig which is one of the top in this field. She looks very strong in this spot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. Put up a decent Equibase speed fig last time out. BLANK CZECH - He has quite good class ratings, averaging 90, and has to be given a shot in this race. Has to be carefully examined against this field displaying strong figures as of late and an average speed fig of 81 under similar conditions. TEDDY BREWSKY - Earnings per start in short races is strong for this equine.
The Walker Group at Lone Star Park
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Allowance - 250y on the Dirt. Purse: $7800 Class Rating: 83
QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 3 GIANNI BAILES 4/1
# 4 DASH N TRES SEIS 10/1
# 2 JESS A CORONA BABY 5/2
GIANNI BAILES is the top wager in this race. Must be considered here on the basis of the figs in the speed department alone. He has respectable class ratings, averaging 79, and has to be considered for this event. This gelding obviously likes the distance, going 1 out of 5 in his races lately. DASH N TRES SEIS - This filly has a good win percent in short races. Always tough to beat Bard and Calderon working together, winning 26 percent of their races. JESS A CORONA BABY - Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. I think having Medina ride this filly is a smart choice.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Allowance - 250y on the Dirt. Purse: $7800 Class Rating: 83
QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 3 GIANNI BAILES 4/1
# 4 DASH N TRES SEIS 10/1
# 2 JESS A CORONA BABY 5/2
GIANNI BAILES is the top wager in this race. Must be considered here on the basis of the figs in the speed department alone. He has respectable class ratings, averaging 79, and has to be considered for this event. This gelding obviously likes the distance, going 1 out of 5 in his races lately. DASH N TRES SEIS - This filly has a good win percent in short races. Always tough to beat Bard and Calderon working together, winning 26 percent of their races. JESS A CORONA BABY - Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. I think having Medina ride this filly is a smart choice.
Valuline at Penn National
Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
Penn National, Race 7 (Friday October 13, 2017)
INTO BATTLE
(For ten of today's most likely winners, see Exotic Key Plays.)
PEN-7 1mile DIRT Six Horses
"A" MCL 8,000 F/M 3YUP $15,300
P# dd ex t s ML WP TVL
6 INTO BATTLE 6/5 45% 6/5 Strong Favorite icon
Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
Penn National, Race 7 (Friday October 13, 2017)
INTO BATTLE
(For ten of today's most likely winners, see Exotic Key Plays.)
PEN-7 1mile DIRT Six Horses
"A" MCL 8,000 F/M 3YUP $15,300
P# dd ex t s ML WP TVL
6 INTO BATTLE 6/5 45% 6/5 Strong Favorite icon
The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Woodbine - Race #4 - Post: 2:43pm - Maiden Claiming - 9.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,700 Class Rating: 73
Rating: 4
#1 HESASHREWDDUDE (ML=7/2)
HESASHREWDDUDE - The jockey/trainer duo of Contreras and Ross has a strong return on investment together. Ran last time around the track against tougher competition at Woodbine. The move down the class scale should suit him well.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 RED BO (ML=5/2), #5 AFTER PARTY (ML=4/1), #2 CATS CASSINOVA (ML=6/1),
RED BO - In all probability won't make much of a mark this time around. AFTER PARTY - This horse hasn't been in the mix in either of his last two efforts. CATS CASSINOVA - This horse just hasn't looked ready of late. This gelding recorded a speed fig in his last clash which likely isn't good enough in today's event.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #1 HESASHREWDDUDE on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
1 with [6,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
Bar
Woodbine - Race #4 - Post: 2:43pm - Maiden Claiming - 9.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,700 Class Rating: 73
Rating: 4
#1 HESASHREWDDUDE (ML=7/2)
HESASHREWDDUDE - The jockey/trainer duo of Contreras and Ross has a strong return on investment together. Ran last time around the track against tougher competition at Woodbine. The move down the class scale should suit him well.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 RED BO (ML=5/2), #5 AFTER PARTY (ML=4/1), #2 CATS CASSINOVA (ML=6/1),
RED BO - In all probability won't make much of a mark this time around. AFTER PARTY - This horse hasn't been in the mix in either of his last two efforts. CATS CASSINOVA - This horse just hasn't looked ready of late. This gelding recorded a speed fig in his last clash which likely isn't good enough in today's event.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #1 HESASHREWDDUDE on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
1 with [6,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs
Will Rogers Downs - Race 7
Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50 min.) / Superfecta (.10 min.)
Maiden Claiming $15,000 • 400 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 71 • Purse: $9,000 • Post: 2:30P
QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * NO SHOW MR JONES: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MDA MOUNTAIN: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
4
NO SHOW MR JONES
7/2
2/1
6
MDA MOUNTAIN
6/1
9/2
Will Rogers Downs - Race 7
Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50 min.) / Superfecta (.10 min.)
Maiden Claiming $15,000 • 400 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 71 • Purse: $9,000 • Post: 2:30P
QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * NO SHOW MR JONES: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MDA MOUNTAIN: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
4
NO SHOW MR JONES
7/2
2/1
6
MDA MOUNTAIN
6/1
9/2
Soccer
Germany - Bundesliga
2:30pm ET
Stuttgart v Cologne
Last Head-To-Heads at Stuttgart:
1-3 (Cologne Win)
0-2 (Cologne Win)
2-1 (Stuttgart Win)
2-2
Recent Form:
Stuttgart: 2-3-1
Cologne: 0-5-1
KEY STAT: Just two goals have been scored in Stuttgart's three home matches this season
EXPERT VERDICT: Stuttgart are yet to concede a home goal since making their return to the Bundesliga and they will fancy their chances of another shutout against a Cologne team who are rooted to the bottom of the table. The hosts have had just ten shots on target, scoring twice, in their three matches at the Mercedes-Benz Arena so, despite Cologne's awful defensive record, this might not be a high-scoring affair.
RECOMMENDATION: Stuttgart to win 1-0 (1)
Germany - Bundesliga
2:30pm ET
Stuttgart v Cologne
Last Head-To-Heads at Stuttgart:
1-3 (Cologne Win)
0-2 (Cologne Win)
2-1 (Stuttgart Win)
2-2
Recent Form:
Stuttgart: 2-3-1
Cologne: 0-5-1
KEY STAT: Just two goals have been scored in Stuttgart's three home matches this season
EXPERT VERDICT: Stuttgart are yet to concede a home goal since making their return to the Bundesliga and they will fancy their chances of another shutout against a Cologne team who are rooted to the bottom of the table. The hosts have had just ten shots on target, scoring twice, in their three matches at the Mercedes-Benz Arena so, despite Cologne's awful defensive record, this might not be a high-scoring affair.
RECOMMENDATION: Stuttgart to win 1-0 (1)
Soccer
French - Ligue 1
2:45pm ET
Lyon v Monaco
Last Head-to-Heads at Lyon:
1-2 (monaco win)
6-1 (lyon win)
1-1
2-1 (lyon win)
Recent Form:
Lyon: 1-2-4
Monaco: 2-2-2
KEY STAT: Lyon have lost just one of ten matches this season
EXPERT VERDICT: Lyon have drawn half of their eight Ligue 1 games this season but they should be backed to down French champions Monaco.The hosts may have struggled for victories but scoring goals has not been a problem for Bruno Genesio's men and they were unlucky not to notch when giving Paris St-Germain a serious test last month.
RECOMMENDATION: Lyon (1)
French - Ligue 1
2:45pm ET
Lyon v Monaco
Last Head-to-Heads at Lyon:
1-2 (monaco win)
6-1 (lyon win)
1-1
2-1 (lyon win)
Recent Form:
Lyon: 1-2-4
Monaco: 2-2-2
KEY STAT: Lyon have lost just one of ten matches this season
EXPERT VERDICT: Lyon have drawn half of their eight Ligue 1 games this season but they should be backed to down French champions Monaco.The hosts may have struggled for victories but scoring goals has not been a problem for Bruno Genesio's men and they were unlucky not to notch when giving Paris St-Germain a serious test last month.
RECOMMENDATION: Lyon (1)
Soccer
Spanish - La Liga
3pm ET
Espanyol v Levante
Last Head-to-Heads at Espanyol:
2-1 (espanyol win)
1-1
2-1 (Espanyol win)
0-0
Recent Form:
Espanyol: 2-3-1
Levante: 1-2-3
KEY STAT: Espanyol have won their last two home games
EXPERT VERDICT: Espanyol's two La Liga victories have come at home this season and they can add another by beating Levante. The Budgerigars didn't create many chances when seeing off both Celta Vigo and Deportivo but they were clinical when they needed to be. Levante held Real Madrid to a surprise 1-1 draw at the Bernabeu but they were woeful in their last road outing when downed 4-0 by Real Betis and equally poor at home to Alaves last time out.
RECOMMENDATION: Espanyol (2)
Spanish - La Liga
3pm ET
Espanyol v Levante
Last Head-to-Heads at Espanyol:
2-1 (espanyol win)
1-1
2-1 (Espanyol win)
0-0
Recent Form:
Espanyol: 2-3-1
Levante: 1-2-3
KEY STAT: Espanyol have won their last two home games
EXPERT VERDICT: Espanyol's two La Liga victories have come at home this season and they can add another by beating Levante. The Budgerigars didn't create many chances when seeing off both Celta Vigo and Deportivo but they were clinical when they needed to be. Levante held Real Madrid to a surprise 1-1 draw at the Bernabeu but they were woeful in their last road outing when downed 4-0 by Real Betis and equally poor at home to Alaves last time out.
RECOMMENDATION: Espanyol (2)
Zcode MLB World Series: Cleveland Indians ousted by New York Yankees
The experts had said to bet on the Cleveland Indians as the computer nerdscalculated the team couldn’t losethe World Series. Well, five games into the Major League Baseball playoffs andCleveland is finished.
The New York Yankees defeated the Tribe in five games. New York came backafter losing the series’ first two games to take three straight. The Yankeesnow face off with Houston for the privilege to represent the American League inthe World Series.
New York Yankees
Ahead of their game 5 win over Cleveland, the Yankees were +900 to win theWorld Series. What a great price! The Indians were +350.
According to MLB statisticians, New York now has the third best chance towin the World Series. The Yankees are 45% likely to win the AL pennant and 22%likely to lift the World Series trophy.
WashingtonNationals
For so long an underachiever, the Washington Nationals are one win away fromthe NLCS. The team’s game 4 win over the Cubs has Washington on the verge of franchisehistory. Dusty Baker’s team was dominant in game 4, winning 5-0, and Chicagodoesn’t look to have an answer to the team’s offense.
Washington was an incredible +1400 before its game against the Cubs. If yougot on that price, then you may see a great payout later on. The win at Wrigleyedged the Nationals ahead of Chicago in probability to make the WorldSeries. The Nationals are now 22% likely to make the series and 10% likely towin it.
Houston Astros
The Astros powered through their series with Boston and will now square offwith the Yankees. At +275, the team doesn’t offer a lucrative price. Houston’soffense has been stellar and the team is 29% likely to win the World Series. Ifyou weren’t swayed to bet on the team previously, you may be now.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are at +225 to win the World Series and like the Astros, don’toffer a great deal of reward for wagering on them currently. The Dodgerslikelihood of winning the World Series is high at 30%. It is the highest of theteams left in the playoffs.
Los Angeles has successfully rebounded from its poor August and September,and the team looks like the Dodgers from before the All-Star Game. The team hasthe benefit of resting its pitching staff right now. Although that could comeback to haunt them.
ZCode System’sPlayoff Simulator
The ZCode System Playoff Simulator has crunched the numbers and it predictsthe Los Angeles Dodgers to knockoff the competition. According the PlayoffSimulator, bettors can expect the Cubs to beat the Nationals before losing tothe Dodgers is six games.
****
Zcode NHL Predictions: October 13-14
Washington Capitalsversus New Jersey Devils
This match up is a battle against 2-0 teams. The Capitals lost to the Devilsas a home favorite on September 27, but it’s their first regular season matchup this season. The Capitals hold a -0.40 to -10.15 edge on the Team StrengthOscillator, but both have a “hot” status due to their quick starts. Washingtonalso holds a +28 to +14 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator and are secondin Team Volatility. Look for the Capitals to take care of business on the roadand narrowly edge the Devils.
New York Rangersversus Columbus Blue Jackets
The Rangers are struggling out of the gate at 1-2, while the Blue Jacketsare even at 1-1. Columbus took three out of the five meetings between the teamslast year, all as an underdog. The Rangers are “dead” status at -4.19 on theTeam Strength Oscillator, while Columbus is -2.32 but “hot” at the moment.Columbus also holds a huge +17 to +4 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicatorand are second in Team Volatility. I see Columbus continuing the Rangers’ woes,winning this at home.
Anaheim Ducks versusColorado Avalanche
The Ducks enter this contest having the Avalanche’s number, winning allthree meeting last season. The Ducks enter 10th in Team Volatility. Both teamshave an “average down” status on the Team Strength Oscillator, although theDucks have a considerable +9.96 to -8.86 edge. Both are also on the decline onthe Power Ranking Indicator, with the Ducks holding a slight edge. I see theDucks taking this one in a tight contest, perhaps an overtime win.
Ottawa Senatorsversus Calgary Flames
The Senators come in looking to reverse last season’s fortunes against theFlames, losing both contests as home favorite and road dog. Both teams arestruggling in teams of the Team Strength Oscillator, Flames having an “ice coldup” status, while the Senators are “dead”. Calgary has a slight edge also interms of Power Ranking Indicator at +16 to +12. The Senators have much to provein this one, but I don’t see them getting past Calgary on the road.
Detroit Red Wingsversus Vegas Golden Knights
Both teams enter undefeated, which is impressive for the Knights, who are afirst year NHL franchise. They are +3.55 and average on the Team StrengthOscillator. The Red Wings are only -3.53 on the same oscillator, but are hot atthe moment. In terms of the Power Ranking indicator, the Knights hold asignificant 10 point advantage there. Detroit has been one of the best NHLfranchises for many years, but I see the newly formed Golden Knights takingthis one to stay hot.
Florida Panthersversus Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins won all three meetings between the two teams last season andcome in with a slight advantage according to the oscillators. They are -0.16 onthe Team Strength Oscillator compared to -2.96 for the Panthers. They are alsoahead on the Power Ranking Indicator, +18 to +4. Florida is tied for tenth inTeam Volatility and as likely underdog status, which favors betting on thePenguins. Pittsburgh should win this win and in a rather comfortable fashion.
The experts had said to bet on the Cleveland Indians as the computer nerdscalculated the team couldn’t losethe World Series. Well, five games into the Major League Baseball playoffs andCleveland is finished.
The New York Yankees defeated the Tribe in five games. New York came backafter losing the series’ first two games to take three straight. The Yankeesnow face off with Houston for the privilege to represent the American League inthe World Series.
New York Yankees
Ahead of their game 5 win over Cleveland, the Yankees were +900 to win theWorld Series. What a great price! The Indians were +350.
According to MLB statisticians, New York now has the third best chance towin the World Series. The Yankees are 45% likely to win the AL pennant and 22%likely to lift the World Series trophy.
WashingtonNationals
For so long an underachiever, the Washington Nationals are one win away fromthe NLCS. The team’s game 4 win over the Cubs has Washington on the verge of franchisehistory. Dusty Baker’s team was dominant in game 4, winning 5-0, and Chicagodoesn’t look to have an answer to the team’s offense.
Washington was an incredible +1400 before its game against the Cubs. If yougot on that price, then you may see a great payout later on. The win at Wrigleyedged the Nationals ahead of Chicago in probability to make the WorldSeries. The Nationals are now 22% likely to make the series and 10% likely towin it.
Houston Astros
The Astros powered through their series with Boston and will now square offwith the Yankees. At +275, the team doesn’t offer a lucrative price. Houston’soffense has been stellar and the team is 29% likely to win the World Series. Ifyou weren’t swayed to bet on the team previously, you may be now.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are at +225 to win the World Series and like the Astros, don’toffer a great deal of reward for wagering on them currently. The Dodgerslikelihood of winning the World Series is high at 30%. It is the highest of theteams left in the playoffs.
Los Angeles has successfully rebounded from its poor August and September,and the team looks like the Dodgers from before the All-Star Game. The team hasthe benefit of resting its pitching staff right now. Although that could comeback to haunt them.
ZCode System’sPlayoff Simulator
The ZCode System Playoff Simulator has crunched the numbers and it predictsthe Los Angeles Dodgers to knockoff the competition. According the PlayoffSimulator, bettors can expect the Cubs to beat the Nationals before losing tothe Dodgers is six games.
****
Zcode NHL Predictions: October 13-14
Washington Capitalsversus New Jersey Devils
This match up is a battle against 2-0 teams. The Capitals lost to the Devilsas a home favorite on September 27, but it’s their first regular season matchup this season. The Capitals hold a -0.40 to -10.15 edge on the Team StrengthOscillator, but both have a “hot” status due to their quick starts. Washingtonalso holds a +28 to +14 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator and are secondin Team Volatility. Look for the Capitals to take care of business on the roadand narrowly edge the Devils.
New York Rangersversus Columbus Blue Jackets
The Rangers are struggling out of the gate at 1-2, while the Blue Jacketsare even at 1-1. Columbus took three out of the five meetings between the teamslast year, all as an underdog. The Rangers are “dead” status at -4.19 on theTeam Strength Oscillator, while Columbus is -2.32 but “hot” at the moment.Columbus also holds a huge +17 to +4 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicatorand are second in Team Volatility. I see Columbus continuing the Rangers’ woes,winning this at home.
Anaheim Ducks versusColorado Avalanche
The Ducks enter this contest having the Avalanche’s number, winning allthree meeting last season. The Ducks enter 10th in Team Volatility. Both teamshave an “average down” status on the Team Strength Oscillator, although theDucks have a considerable +9.96 to -8.86 edge. Both are also on the decline onthe Power Ranking Indicator, with the Ducks holding a slight edge. I see theDucks taking this one in a tight contest, perhaps an overtime win.
Ottawa Senatorsversus Calgary Flames
The Senators come in looking to reverse last season’s fortunes against theFlames, losing both contests as home favorite and road dog. Both teams arestruggling in teams of the Team Strength Oscillator, Flames having an “ice coldup” status, while the Senators are “dead”. Calgary has a slight edge also interms of Power Ranking Indicator at +16 to +12. The Senators have much to provein this one, but I don’t see them getting past Calgary on the road.
Detroit Red Wingsversus Vegas Golden Knights
Both teams enter undefeated, which is impressive for the Knights, who are afirst year NHL franchise. They are +3.55 and average on the Team StrengthOscillator. The Red Wings are only -3.53 on the same oscillator, but are hot atthe moment. In terms of the Power Ranking indicator, the Knights hold asignificant 10 point advantage there. Detroit has been one of the best NHLfranchises for many years, but I see the newly formed Golden Knights takingthis one to stay hot.
Florida Panthersversus Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins won all three meetings between the two teams last season andcome in with a slight advantage according to the oscillators. They are -0.16 onthe Team Strength Oscillator compared to -2.96 for the Panthers. They are alsoahead on the Power Ranking Indicator, +18 to +4. Florida is tied for tenth inTeam Volatility and as likely underdog status, which favors betting on thePenguins. Pittsburgh should win this win and in a rather comfortable fashion.
ALCS Cheat Sheet
2017 Head-to-Head Matchups (Houston 5-2, Under 5-2)
Houston vs. New York (Yankee Stadium)
May 11 - Astros 3 Yankees 2 (Under 7.5)
May 12 - Astros 5 Yankees 1 (Under 8 )
May 14 - Yankees 11 Astros 6 (Over 9)
May 14 - Astros 10 Yankees 7 (Over 8.5)
New York vs. Houston (Minute Maid Park)
June 30 - Yankees 13 Astros 4 (Over 8 )
July 1 - Astros 7 Yankees 6 (Over 9)
July 2 - Astros 8 Yankees 1 (Over 8.5)
The Indians and Astros were on a collision course to meet in the American League Championship Series following 100-win seasons. Houston finished off Boston in four games of the Divisional Series, while Cleveland led New York, 2-0 with three shots to eliminate the Yankees. However, the Indians fell apart by losing twice in the Bronx and then dropping Game 5 at home as a nearly -200 favorite as Cleveland won’t defend its American League pennant.
The Yankees (91-71) rallied from a 3-0 deficit in the Wild Card round to knock out the Twins, 8-4, but lost the first two games of the ALDS to Cleveland. New York blew a five-run advantage in a 13-inning setback in Game 2, as it seemed like the season was over for Joe Girardi and the Yankees. But, the Bronx Bombers received a terrific pitching performance from Masahiro Tanaka in a Game 3 shutout, while the Yankees pulled away from the Indians in Game 4 to force the decisive Game 5 at Progressive Field.
Shortshop Didi Gregorious belted a pair of home runs off Indians’ ace Corey Kluber to propel the Yankees to a 3-0 lead in Game 5 before Cleveland trimmed the deficit to 3-2. Brett Gardner’s base hit in the ninth inning brought home a pair of runs to send Cleveland to 0-5 in its past five postseason close-out games. The Yankees improved to 1-2 as an underdog in the playoffs as New York cashed as +170 ‘dogs, while advancing to their first ALCS since 2012.
The Astros (101-61) didn’t want to fall in the same trap as the Indians after grabbing a 2-0 advantage in their series against the Red Sox. Houston dominated Boston twice by identical 8-2 scores at Minute Maid Park before getting tripped up in a 10-3 setback to the Red Sox at Fenway Park in Game 3. Boston was ready to force a Game 5 back in Houston as the Sox led the Astros, 3-2 in the eighth inning of Game 4 before Alex Bregman tied the game with a homer, followed by a Josh Reddick RBI single. Houston finished the job, 5-4 to advance to the ALCS for the first time since joining the American League and the first LCS appearance since 2005.
The starting pitching advantage lies with the Astros, who showcase a pair of Cy Young winners in the first two games. Dallas Keuchel (14-5, 2.90 ERA) shut down the Red Sox in Game 2 of the ALDS, 8-2 as a -175 home favorite by tossing 5.2 innings of three-hit ball, while allowing one earned run. The Astros posted a 7-5 record in Keuchel’s 12 starts at Minute Maid Park, although the southpaw put together a solid 2.21 home ERA.
Keuchel beat the Yankees as a short road underdog in May by yielding one unearned run in six innings of work as the Astros picked up a 3-2 victory. The left-hander has dominated the Yankees over the years by going 5-1 since 2015, including a 3-0 triumph in the Wild Card game in New York in 2015 by tossing six scoreless innings. Keuchel is undefeated in three postseason starts, which includes a 2-0 record at Minute Maid Park.
Justin Verlander (15-8, 3.36 ERA) takes the mound in Game 2 as picked up a pair of wins against the Red Sox in the ALDS. Verlander is unbeaten in six starts since getting traded from Detroit in late August, as the right-hander allowed two earned runs in six innings of Game 1 against Boston, while pitching out of the bullpen for the first time in his career in the Game 4 clincher by throwing 2.2 innings of relief. Verlander didn’t face the Yankees this season, but picked up a 6-1 victory at Yankee Stadium last season as a +120 underdog as he yielded one earned run in 6.2 innings.
Tanaka (13-12, 4.74 ERA) is coming off his two best starts of the season by striking out a combined 22 batters and walking only one in 14 scoreless innings against the Blue Jays and Indians. On the flip side, Tanaka’s worst start of the season came against Houston in mid-May as the Astros tagged him for eight earned runs and four homers in 1.2 innings of a 10-7 defeat. Girardi decided to give Tanaka the ball in Game 1 opposite Keuchel, reminiscent of their Wild Card matchup two years ago.
Luis Severino (14-6, 2.98 ERA) rebounded from a poor performance in the Wild Card round against Minnesota by striking out nine and scattering four hits and three earned runs in a 7-3 triumph over Cleveland in Game 4 of the ALDS. The Yankees are 7-0 in Severino’s last seven starts, but the right-hander struggled in two outings against Houston this season. Severino survived only eight innings in two starts, while giving up nine earned runs, but the Yankees rallied for an 11-6 victory in New York back in May in one of those outings.
The Yankees acquired Sonny Gray (10-12, 3.54 ERA) at the trade deadline from Oakland, but things haven’t worked out well for the right-hander. Gray owns a dreadful 4-9 record in 13 starts with the Bronx Bombers, including a 2-5 mark on the highway. In his only start against Cleveland in the ALDS, Gray lasted 3.1 innings in the series opener and gave up three hits and three earned runs in a 4-0 defeat. In the five road losses with the Yankees, New York’s offense hasn’t helped out Gray by scoring one run or fewer in each defeat. It will be tough sledding for Gray in the series opener, as he allowed five earned runs in five innings in an 8-4 loss to Houston as a member of the Athletics back in June.
The first two meetings this season finished UNDER the total, but the final five matchups sailed OVER the total, as the winning team scored at least seven runs each time. The home team in the LCS has won each of the past four series openers since 2015, while underdogs went 6-0 from 2012-14 in Game 1’s of the LCS.
2017 Head-to-Head Matchups (Houston 5-2, Under 5-2)
Houston vs. New York (Yankee Stadium)
May 11 - Astros 3 Yankees 2 (Under 7.5)
May 12 - Astros 5 Yankees 1 (Under 8 )
May 14 - Yankees 11 Astros 6 (Over 9)
May 14 - Astros 10 Yankees 7 (Over 8.5)
New York vs. Houston (Minute Maid Park)
June 30 - Yankees 13 Astros 4 (Over 8 )
July 1 - Astros 7 Yankees 6 (Over 9)
July 2 - Astros 8 Yankees 1 (Over 8.5)
The Indians and Astros were on a collision course to meet in the American League Championship Series following 100-win seasons. Houston finished off Boston in four games of the Divisional Series, while Cleveland led New York, 2-0 with three shots to eliminate the Yankees. However, the Indians fell apart by losing twice in the Bronx and then dropping Game 5 at home as a nearly -200 favorite as Cleveland won’t defend its American League pennant.
The Yankees (91-71) rallied from a 3-0 deficit in the Wild Card round to knock out the Twins, 8-4, but lost the first two games of the ALDS to Cleveland. New York blew a five-run advantage in a 13-inning setback in Game 2, as it seemed like the season was over for Joe Girardi and the Yankees. But, the Bronx Bombers received a terrific pitching performance from Masahiro Tanaka in a Game 3 shutout, while the Yankees pulled away from the Indians in Game 4 to force the decisive Game 5 at Progressive Field.
Shortshop Didi Gregorious belted a pair of home runs off Indians’ ace Corey Kluber to propel the Yankees to a 3-0 lead in Game 5 before Cleveland trimmed the deficit to 3-2. Brett Gardner’s base hit in the ninth inning brought home a pair of runs to send Cleveland to 0-5 in its past five postseason close-out games. The Yankees improved to 1-2 as an underdog in the playoffs as New York cashed as +170 ‘dogs, while advancing to their first ALCS since 2012.
The Astros (101-61) didn’t want to fall in the same trap as the Indians after grabbing a 2-0 advantage in their series against the Red Sox. Houston dominated Boston twice by identical 8-2 scores at Minute Maid Park before getting tripped up in a 10-3 setback to the Red Sox at Fenway Park in Game 3. Boston was ready to force a Game 5 back in Houston as the Sox led the Astros, 3-2 in the eighth inning of Game 4 before Alex Bregman tied the game with a homer, followed by a Josh Reddick RBI single. Houston finished the job, 5-4 to advance to the ALCS for the first time since joining the American League and the first LCS appearance since 2005.
The starting pitching advantage lies with the Astros, who showcase a pair of Cy Young winners in the first two games. Dallas Keuchel (14-5, 2.90 ERA) shut down the Red Sox in Game 2 of the ALDS, 8-2 as a -175 home favorite by tossing 5.2 innings of three-hit ball, while allowing one earned run. The Astros posted a 7-5 record in Keuchel’s 12 starts at Minute Maid Park, although the southpaw put together a solid 2.21 home ERA.
Keuchel beat the Yankees as a short road underdog in May by yielding one unearned run in six innings of work as the Astros picked up a 3-2 victory. The left-hander has dominated the Yankees over the years by going 5-1 since 2015, including a 3-0 triumph in the Wild Card game in New York in 2015 by tossing six scoreless innings. Keuchel is undefeated in three postseason starts, which includes a 2-0 record at Minute Maid Park.
Justin Verlander (15-8, 3.36 ERA) takes the mound in Game 2 as picked up a pair of wins against the Red Sox in the ALDS. Verlander is unbeaten in six starts since getting traded from Detroit in late August, as the right-hander allowed two earned runs in six innings of Game 1 against Boston, while pitching out of the bullpen for the first time in his career in the Game 4 clincher by throwing 2.2 innings of relief. Verlander didn’t face the Yankees this season, but picked up a 6-1 victory at Yankee Stadium last season as a +120 underdog as he yielded one earned run in 6.2 innings.
Tanaka (13-12, 4.74 ERA) is coming off his two best starts of the season by striking out a combined 22 batters and walking only one in 14 scoreless innings against the Blue Jays and Indians. On the flip side, Tanaka’s worst start of the season came against Houston in mid-May as the Astros tagged him for eight earned runs and four homers in 1.2 innings of a 10-7 defeat. Girardi decided to give Tanaka the ball in Game 1 opposite Keuchel, reminiscent of their Wild Card matchup two years ago.
Luis Severino (14-6, 2.98 ERA) rebounded from a poor performance in the Wild Card round against Minnesota by striking out nine and scattering four hits and three earned runs in a 7-3 triumph over Cleveland in Game 4 of the ALDS. The Yankees are 7-0 in Severino’s last seven starts, but the right-hander struggled in two outings against Houston this season. Severino survived only eight innings in two starts, while giving up nine earned runs, but the Yankees rallied for an 11-6 victory in New York back in May in one of those outings.
The Yankees acquired Sonny Gray (10-12, 3.54 ERA) at the trade deadline from Oakland, but things haven’t worked out well for the right-hander. Gray owns a dreadful 4-9 record in 13 starts with the Bronx Bombers, including a 2-5 mark on the highway. In his only start against Cleveland in the ALDS, Gray lasted 3.1 innings in the series opener and gave up three hits and three earned runs in a 4-0 defeat. In the five road losses with the Yankees, New York’s offense hasn’t helped out Gray by scoring one run or fewer in each defeat. It will be tough sledding for Gray in the series opener, as he allowed five earned runs in five innings in an 8-4 loss to Houston as a member of the Athletics back in June.
The first two meetings this season finished UNDER the total, but the final five matchups sailed OVER the total, as the winning team scored at least seven runs each time. The home team in the LCS has won each of the past four series openers since 2015, while underdogs went 6-0 from 2012-14 in Game 1’s of the LCS.
New York @ Houston
Astros are 5-2 against New York this season, winning 2 of 3 at home.
Tanaka is 2-0, 0.00 (14 IP) in his last two starts; Over is 5-3-1 in his last nine starts. New York is 6-9 in his road starts this season. Tanaka is 1-1, 1.50 in two career postseason starts. Astros scored 8 runs in 1.2 IP off Tanaka May 14 in NY, a 10-7 Houston win.
Keuchel is 3-1, 2.28 in his last four starts; four of his last five starts went over. He is 3-0, 2.29 in four postseason games (3 starts); Houston is 7-5 in his home starts. Keuchel allowed one (unearned run) in six IP at New York May 11, a 3-2 Astros win.
NY YANKEES vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
Houston is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
NY YANKEES @ HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing Houston
NY Yankees is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
Houston is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games at home
NY YANKEES (95 - 73) at HOUSTON (104 - 62) - 7:05 PM
MASAHIRO TANAKA (R) vs. DALLAS KEUCHEL (L)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 11-23 (-14.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
NY YANKEES are 3-11 (-9.6 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Friday this season.
NY YANKEES are 50-44 (-6.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
NY YANKEES are 8-17 (-12.2 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 104-62 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 81-38 (+25.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
NY YANKEES are 50-33 (+15.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 60-55 (-22.0 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 50-43 (-14.6 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 34-39 (-17.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 17-23 (-12.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 5-2 (+2.6 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.8 Units)
MASAHIRO TANAKA vs. HOUSTON since 1997
TANAKA is 0-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 8.86 and a WHIP of 1.701.
His team's record is 1-4 (-3.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-3. (-1.3 units)
DALLAS KEUCHEL vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
KEUCHEL is 5-2 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 1.24 and a WHIP of 0.789.
His team's record is 5-2 (+2.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-5. (-3.3 units)
StatFox Super Situations
NY YANKEES at HOUSTON
Play On - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (HOUSTON) good team, outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season against opponent top level team, outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game on the season 144-70 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.3% | 51.7 units ) 28-23 this year. ( 54.9% | -4.0 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
MLB | NY YANKEES at HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 81-38 (+25.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season. The average score was: HOUSTON (5.5) , OPPONENT (4.2)
Astros are 5-2 against New York this season, winning 2 of 3 at home.
Tanaka is 2-0, 0.00 (14 IP) in his last two starts; Over is 5-3-1 in his last nine starts. New York is 6-9 in his road starts this season. Tanaka is 1-1, 1.50 in two career postseason starts. Astros scored 8 runs in 1.2 IP off Tanaka May 14 in NY, a 10-7 Houston win.
Keuchel is 3-1, 2.28 in his last four starts; four of his last five starts went over. He is 3-0, 2.29 in four postseason games (3 starts); Houston is 7-5 in his home starts. Keuchel allowed one (unearned run) in six IP at New York May 11, a 3-2 Astros win.
NY YANKEES vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
Houston is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
NY YANKEES @ HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing Houston
NY Yankees is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
Houston is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games at home
NY YANKEES (95 - 73) at HOUSTON (104 - 62) - 7:05 PM
MASAHIRO TANAKA (R) vs. DALLAS KEUCHEL (L)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 11-23 (-14.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
NY YANKEES are 3-11 (-9.6 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Friday this season.
NY YANKEES are 50-44 (-6.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
NY YANKEES are 8-17 (-12.2 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 104-62 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 81-38 (+25.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
NY YANKEES are 50-33 (+15.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 60-55 (-22.0 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 50-43 (-14.6 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 34-39 (-17.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 17-23 (-12.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 5-2 (+2.6 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.8 Units)
MASAHIRO TANAKA vs. HOUSTON since 1997
TANAKA is 0-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 8.86 and a WHIP of 1.701.
His team's record is 1-4 (-3.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-3. (-1.3 units)
DALLAS KEUCHEL vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
KEUCHEL is 5-2 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 1.24 and a WHIP of 0.789.
His team's record is 5-2 (+2.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-5. (-3.3 units)
StatFox Super Situations
NY YANKEES at HOUSTON
Play On - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (HOUSTON) good team, outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season against opponent top level team, outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game on the season 144-70 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.3% | 51.7 units ) 28-23 this year. ( 54.9% | -4.0 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
MLB | NY YANKEES at HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 81-38 (+25.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season. The average score was: HOUSTON (5.5) , OPPONENT (4.2)
