Colts (2-3) @ Titans (2-3)— Status of Mariota (hamstring) makes handicapping this game dicey. Titans scored 14-10 points in losing their last two games, both on road; they split their two home games. Tennessee is 5-3 vs spread in its last eight games as a home favorite; over is 10-6-2 in their last 18 home games. Indy is 16-1 in its last 17 games with the Titans, winning last 11 in a row; they won last five visits to Nashville, by 6-3-17-2-8 points. Indy is 0-2 on road this season, losing big both times, 46-9 (+3.5) at Rams, 46-18 (+13) at Seattle- their three home games were all decided by 3 points each. Last three Colt games all went over. Colts are 30-65 on 3rd down in Brissett’s four starts, which is good, but winning on road is doubtful until Luck returns to lineup.
INDIANAPOLIS vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Indianapolis's last 24 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Tennessee's last 24 games when playing Indianapolis
INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 3) at TENNESSEE (2 - 3) - 10/16/2017, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS at TENNESSEE (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Colts have won 11 in a row SU in series. Colts “over” 9-1 last ten away from Lucas Oil. Titans “over” 8-3-1 last 12 as host.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Colts, based on “totals” and series trends.
INDIANAPOLIS vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Indianapolis's last 24 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Tennessee's last 24 games when playing Indianapolis
INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 3) at TENNESSEE (2 - 3) - 10/16/2017, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS at TENNESSEE (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Colts have won 11 in a row SU in series. Colts “over” 9-1 last ten away from Lucas Oil. Titans “over” 8-3-1 last 12 as host.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Colts, based on “totals” and series trends.
Titans coach Mike Mularkey said there's no plan to hold out Corey Davis (hamstring) through the Week 8 bye.
Davis has been an early rule out the last three games. He hasn't practiced since Week 2, but the Titans have been resting him to avoid setbacks. It's possible Davis could return next week. There's blowup second-half potential when Davis gets healthy.
Marcus Mariota (hamstring) is questionable for Monday night's game with the Colts.
Mariota has been limited in practice the last two weeks. He's still not fully over his hamstring issue and could be a game-time decision. The Titans are more likely to push Mariota after Matt Cassel's Week 5 struggles. Mariota should be limited to the pocket if he plays, but his return would upgrade the outlooks of Delanie Walker and Rishard Matthews.
ESPN’s Mike Wells expects Marlon Mack to have an "increased workload" on Monday night against the Titans.
This falls with Chuck Pagano’s plan to get Mack more carries. Mack led Indy to an overtime win last week, adding a big-play threat to an offense that’s lacked splash plays without Andrew Luck. The Colts have misplaced loyalty to Frank Gore, a 34-year-old on an expired deal with three straight sub-4.0 YPC seasons. Mack was a workhorse for star HC Willie Taggart at USF — starting 36-of-36 games — and is miscast in a change-up role. The Colts need to make the move to Mack if they want to get him double-digit starts — a streak he’s had since college. Mack is the future in Indy and deserves to start.
Jack Doyle has cleared the concussion protocol and is expected to play Monday night against the Titans.
This was fully expected considering he practiced in full all week. Doyle has been mostly down this season, but Jacoby Brissett is coming off his best passing day of the year. Doyle is an option for desperate streamers.
Colts placed RG Jack Mewhort on injured reserve with a knee injury.
Mewhort's knee swelled up in practice on Friday, and an MRI revealed he needed surgery. Mewhort was not playing well as he attempted to work through the injury, but this is still another blow for the Colts' struggling offensive line.
Davis has been an early rule out the last three games. He hasn't practiced since Week 2, but the Titans have been resting him to avoid setbacks. It's possible Davis could return next week. There's blowup second-half potential when Davis gets healthy.
Marcus Mariota (hamstring) is questionable for Monday night's game with the Colts.
Mariota has been limited in practice the last two weeks. He's still not fully over his hamstring issue and could be a game-time decision. The Titans are more likely to push Mariota after Matt Cassel's Week 5 struggles. Mariota should be limited to the pocket if he plays, but his return would upgrade the outlooks of Delanie Walker and Rishard Matthews.
ESPN’s Mike Wells expects Marlon Mack to have an "increased workload" on Monday night against the Titans.
This falls with Chuck Pagano’s plan to get Mack more carries. Mack led Indy to an overtime win last week, adding a big-play threat to an offense that’s lacked splash plays without Andrew Luck. The Colts have misplaced loyalty to Frank Gore, a 34-year-old on an expired deal with three straight sub-4.0 YPC seasons. Mack was a workhorse for star HC Willie Taggart at USF — starting 36-of-36 games — and is miscast in a change-up role. The Colts need to make the move to Mack if they want to get him double-digit starts — a streak he’s had since college. Mack is the future in Indy and deserves to start.
Jack Doyle has cleared the concussion protocol and is expected to play Monday night against the Titans.
This was fully expected considering he practiced in full all week. Doyle has been mostly down this season, but Jacoby Brissett is coming off his best passing day of the year. Doyle is an option for desperate streamers.
Colts placed RG Jack Mewhort on injured reserve with a knee injury.
Mewhort's knee swelled up in practice on Friday, and an MRI revealed he needed surgery. Mewhort was not playing well as he attempted to work through the injury, but this is still another blow for the Colts' struggling offensive line.
Soccer
England - Premier League
3pm ET
Leicester v West Brom
Referee: Mike Dean
Last Head-to-Heads at Leicester:
1-2 (West Brom win)
2-2
0-1 (West Brom win)
1-4 (West Brom win)
Recent Form:
Leicester: 1-3-2
West Brom: 0-3-3
KEY STAT: Leicester have won one of their last ten league games
EXPERT VERDICT: Leicester’s poor start to the season has been blamed on a tough set of opening fixtures but they were lucky to escape with a point from their trip to Bournemouth and are difficult to trust at short prices against West Brom. The Baggies are winless in six matches but were much better in the 2-2 draw against Watford and the international break will have freshened them up.
RECOMMENDATION: Draw (1)
England - Premier League
3pm ET
Leicester v West Brom
Referee: Mike Dean
Last Head-to-Heads at Leicester:
1-2 (West Brom win)
2-2
0-1 (West Brom win)
1-4 (West Brom win)
Recent Form:
Leicester: 1-3-2
West Brom: 0-3-3
KEY STAT: Leicester have won one of their last ten league games
EXPERT VERDICT: Leicester’s poor start to the season has been blamed on a tough set of opening fixtures but they were lucky to escape with a point from their trip to Bournemouth and are difficult to trust at short prices against West Brom. The Baggies are winless in six matches but were much better in the 2-2 draw against Watford and the international break will have freshened them up.
RECOMMENDATION: Draw (1)
Soccer
Italy - Serie A
2:45pm ET
Verona v Benevento
Last Head-to-Heads at Verona:
none
Recent Form:
Verona: 0-3-3
Benevento: 0-6
KEY STAT: Verona have failed to score in five of their last six Serie A matches
EXPERT VERDICT: Benevento, the only side in Serie A without a point, almost broke their duck before the break with a far better effort in a 2-1 home loss against Inter. Those encouraging signs should give them hope at Verona, who are without a win in seven rounds of fixtures, but the hosts have drawn three times.
RECOMMENDATION: Draw (1)
Italy - Serie A
2:45pm ET
Verona v Benevento
Last Head-to-Heads at Verona:
none
Recent Form:
Verona: 0-3-3
Benevento: 0-6
KEY STAT: Verona have failed to score in five of their last six Serie A matches
EXPERT VERDICT: Benevento, the only side in Serie A without a point, almost broke their duck before the break with a far better effort in a 2-1 home loss against Inter. Those encouraging signs should give them hope at Verona, who are without a win in seven rounds of fixtures, but the hosts have drawn three times.
RECOMMENDATION: Draw (1)
Soccer
Spain - La Liga
3pm ET
Las Palmas v Celta Vigo
Last Head-to-Heads at Las Palmas:
3-3
2-1 (Las Palmas win)
3-2 (Las Palmas win)
3-1 (Las Palmas win)
Recent Form:
Las Palmas: 2-4
Celta Vigo: 2-2-2
KEY STAT: Celta have scored in their last ten La Liga games
EXPERT VERDICT: Las Palmas have lost three in a row and are vulnerable against an on-song Celta. The Canary Islanders have only scored five goals, whereas free-scoring Celta have popped in 13 in their seven matches. Ex-Barca coach Juan Carlos Unzue has got frontmen Maxi Gomez and Pione Sisto working well together and scoring goals and Celta look to be on the up.
RECOMMENDATION: Celta Vigo (2)
Spain - La Liga
3pm ET
Las Palmas v Celta Vigo
Last Head-to-Heads at Las Palmas:
3-3
2-1 (Las Palmas win)
3-2 (Las Palmas win)
3-1 (Las Palmas win)
Recent Form:
Las Palmas: 2-4
Celta Vigo: 2-2-2
KEY STAT: Celta have scored in their last ten La Liga games
EXPERT VERDICT: Las Palmas have lost three in a row and are vulnerable against an on-song Celta. The Canary Islanders have only scored five goals, whereas free-scoring Celta have popped in 13 in their seven matches. Ex-Barca coach Juan Carlos Unzue has got frontmen Maxi Gomez and Pione Sisto working well together and scoring goals and Celta look to be on the up.
RECOMMENDATION: Celta Vigo (2)
The Walker Group at Finger Lakes
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 3 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 66
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 16, 2016. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 5 FIRESTAR 1/1
# 1 TRAPPER JANE 12/1
# 2 LARA 5/1
I've got to go with FIRESTAR. She has posted strong figures under today's conditions and will almost certainly fare well versus this group of horses in this race. With one of the best jocks in terms of profits at the window, don't count this filly out. Has to be considered for this race if only for the very strong speed fig earned in the last contest. TRAPPER JANE - Will most likely come out sharp - I have liked the way this filly has moved promptly to the lead recently. With a competitive 60 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race. LARA - Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this mare. She has been running solidly and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the most competitive in this group.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 3 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 66
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 16, 2016. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 5 FIRESTAR 1/1
# 1 TRAPPER JANE 12/1
# 2 LARA 5/1
I've got to go with FIRESTAR. She has posted strong figures under today's conditions and will almost certainly fare well versus this group of horses in this race. With one of the best jocks in terms of profits at the window, don't count this filly out. Has to be considered for this race if only for the very strong speed fig earned in the last contest. TRAPPER JANE - Will most likely come out sharp - I have liked the way this filly has moved promptly to the lead recently. With a competitive 60 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race. LARA - Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this mare. She has been running solidly and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the most competitive in this group.
The Walker Group at Laurel
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 8 - SA - 5.5f on the Turf. Purse: $25000 Class Rating: 94
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $7,500 OR LESS IN 2016 - 2017. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE AUGUST 16 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 4 BILLY THE BULL 3/1
# 8 PUTURSEATBELTON 4/1
# 10 BLUEGRASS BALL 5/1
I favor BILLY THE BULL here. Earnings per start in turf sprint races is strong for this racer. Eppler has this gelding moving well and is a very strong selection based on the competitive speed figs recorded in sprint races recently. He must be given consideration given the respectable speed figures. PUTURSEATBELTON - Must be given consideration - I like the figs from the last race. BLUEGRASS BALL - Could beat this group of animals given the 95 speed rating posted in his last outing. He has been racing admirably recently while recording strong speed figures.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 8 - SA - 5.5f on the Turf. Purse: $25000 Class Rating: 94
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $7,500 OR LESS IN 2016 - 2017. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE AUGUST 16 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 4 BILLY THE BULL 3/1
# 8 PUTURSEATBELTON 4/1
# 10 BLUEGRASS BALL 5/1
I favor BILLY THE BULL here. Earnings per start in turf sprint races is strong for this racer. Eppler has this gelding moving well and is a very strong selection based on the competitive speed figs recorded in sprint races recently. He must be given consideration given the respectable speed figures. PUTURSEATBELTON - Must be given consideration - I like the figs from the last race. BLUEGRASS BALL - Could beat this group of animals given the 95 speed rating posted in his last outing. He has been racing admirably recently while recording strong speed figures.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Portland Meadows
Portland Meadows - Race 9
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta
Claiming $2,500 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $5,500 • Post: 3:44P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 16, 2017 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Lone Trailer. MR. TENACIOUS is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MR. TENACIOUS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. SEMPER GUMBY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. CAPTAIN SHADDOCK: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). JUSTA GUSTA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. YOSSI: Horse's average w inning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
3
MR. TENACIOUS
7/2
9/2
7
SEMPER GUMBY
4/1
6/1
2
CAPTAIN SHADDOCK
3/1
8/1
8
JUSTA GUSTA
8/1
9/1
5
YOSSI
6/1
10/1
Portland Meadows - Race 9
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta
Claiming $2,500 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $5,500 • Post: 3:44P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 16, 2017 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Lone Trailer. MR. TENACIOUS is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MR. TENACIOUS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. SEMPER GUMBY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. CAPTAIN SHADDOCK: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). JUSTA GUSTA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. YOSSI: Horse's average w inning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
3
MR. TENACIOUS
7/2
9/2
7
SEMPER GUMBY
4/1
6/1
2
CAPTAIN SHADDOCK
3/1
8/1
8
JUSTA GUSTA
8/1
9/1
5
YOSSI
6/1
10/1
The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Parx Racing - Race #2 - Post: 1:22pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 74
Rating: 4
#7 VEBLEN GOOD (ML=4/1)
VEBLEN GOOD - This filly is in superb physical condition right now. Finished third last time out and comes back promptly. Is ranked at the top in earnings per race. A dominant try in this field can augment the lifetime earnings.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 ANY GIVEN TRACE (ML=2/1), #2 ALSTERONE (ML=5/2), #4 PAPER MOON (ML=6/1),
ANY GIVEN TRACE - If you keep playing these sort of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be let down most of the time. ALSTERONE - I cannot play this frequent non-winner. Gets the assignment completed infrequently. PAPER MOON - Didn't finish in the money on September 9th at Parx Racing. Followed it up with another lackluster performance. This filly recorded a speed fig in her last clash which likely isn't good enough today.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #7 VEBLEN GOOD to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
Bar
Parx Racing - Race #2 - Post: 1:22pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 74
Rating: 4
#7 VEBLEN GOOD (ML=4/1)
VEBLEN GOOD - This filly is in superb physical condition right now. Finished third last time out and comes back promptly. Is ranked at the top in earnings per race. A dominant try in this field can augment the lifetime earnings.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 ANY GIVEN TRACE (ML=2/1), #2 ALSTERONE (ML=5/2), #4 PAPER MOON (ML=6/1),
ANY GIVEN TRACE - If you keep playing these sort of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be let down most of the time. ALSTERONE - I cannot play this frequent non-winner. Gets the assignment completed infrequently. PAPER MOON - Didn't finish in the money on September 9th at Parx Racing. Followed it up with another lackluster performance. This filly recorded a speed fig in her last clash which likely isn't good enough today.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #7 VEBLEN GOOD to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown
Thistledown - Race 8
$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta
Claiming $4,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $10,100 • Post: 5:10P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE APRIL 16. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 16 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 16 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Lone Stalker. HE'S ETAIN is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BOSS MAN BOB: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. HE'S ETAIN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. TURN BACK TIME: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
8
BOSS MAN BOB
9/2
4/1
4
HE'S ETAIN
7/2
6/1
5
TURN BACK TIME
10/1
6/1
Thistledown - Race 8
$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta
Claiming $4,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $10,100 • Post: 5:10P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE APRIL 16. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 16 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 16 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Lone Stalker. HE'S ETAIN is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BOSS MAN BOB: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. HE'S ETAIN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. TURN BACK TIME: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
8
BOSS MAN BOB
9/2
4/1
4
HE'S ETAIN
7/2
6/1
5
TURN BACK TIME
10/1
6/1
The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Turf Paradise - Race #2 - Post: 1:25pm - Maiden Optional Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,500 Class Rating: 65
Rating: 4
#5 HONORABLE SONG (ML=6/1)
#3 CONFED (ML=9/2)
HONORABLE SONG - This filly likes to be near the lead. Today's event is a shorter trip and should aid her winning probability. She keeps getting closer at the finish with each and every start. As the only front runner in the race, I expect this filly to be long gone. I am keen on that latest contest on Sep 24th at Emerald Downs where she ran second. CONFED - Metz has this filly entered in the ideal contest.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 FOGGIA (ML=2/1), #6 BELLASTIME (ML=4/1), #4 KARYS SECRET (ML=5/1),
FOGGIA - This filly in all probability won't be right there at the finish line. BELLASTIME - Difficult to bet on any racer in a sprint affair at 4/1 when she hasn't shown any successful efforts in sprints in the last couple months. KARYS SECRET - Today's race is 5 furlongs. Hasn't finished in the money in a sprint event in the last 60 days. Not the best of signs. 5/1 odds isn't enough for this horse when examining the most recent efforts. Not likely that the speed figure she earned on Aug 16th will be enough in this event.
Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - HONORABLE SONG - Steady improvement in her speed ratings, 46 last race and 44 two races back. This mount is going to be tough against these horses.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #5 HONORABLE SONG on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
Bar
Turf Paradise - Race #2 - Post: 1:25pm - Maiden Optional Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,500 Class Rating: 65
Rating: 4
#5 HONORABLE SONG (ML=6/1)
#3 CONFED (ML=9/2)
HONORABLE SONG - This filly likes to be near the lead. Today's event is a shorter trip and should aid her winning probability. She keeps getting closer at the finish with each and every start. As the only front runner in the race, I expect this filly to be long gone. I am keen on that latest contest on Sep 24th at Emerald Downs where she ran second. CONFED - Metz has this filly entered in the ideal contest.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 FOGGIA (ML=2/1), #6 BELLASTIME (ML=4/1), #4 KARYS SECRET (ML=5/1),
FOGGIA - This filly in all probability won't be right there at the finish line. BELLASTIME - Difficult to bet on any racer in a sprint affair at 4/1 when she hasn't shown any successful efforts in sprints in the last couple months. KARYS SECRET - Today's race is 5 furlongs. Hasn't finished in the money in a sprint event in the last 60 days. Not the best of signs. 5/1 odds isn't enough for this horse when examining the most recent efforts. Not likely that the speed figure she earned on Aug 16th will be enough in this event.
Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - HONORABLE SONG - Steady improvement in her speed ratings, 46 last race and 44 two races back. This mount is going to be tough against these horses.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #5 HONORABLE SONG on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
Valuline at Zia Park
Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
Zia Park, Race 6 (Monday October 16, 2017)
VOCALLY
(For ten of today's most likely winners, see Exotic Key Plays.)
ZIA-6 4.5f DIRT Eight Horses
"A" CLM 5,000 F/M 3YUP $9,500
P# ex t s ML WP TVL
4 VOCALLY 6/5 45% 6/5 Strong Favorite icon
5 INFLATOR 10/1 14% 6/1
Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
Zia Park, Race 6 (Monday October 16, 2017)
VOCALLY
(For ten of today's most likely winners, see Exotic Key Plays.)
ZIA-6 4.5f DIRT Eight Horses
"A" CLM 5,000 F/M 3YUP $9,500
P# ex t s ML WP TVL
4 VOCALLY 6/5 45% 6/5 Strong Favorite icon
5 INFLATOR 10/1 14% 6/1
NFL
StatFox Super Situations
INDIANAPOLIS at TENNESSEE
Play Against - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game 29-8 over the last 10 seasons. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
StatFox Super Situations
INDIANAPOLIS at TENNESSEE
Play Against - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game 29-8 over the last 10 seasons. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
Colts (2-3) @ Titans (2-3) — Status of Mariota (hamstring) makes handicapping this game dicey. Titans scored 14-10 points in losing their last two games, both on road; they split their two home games. Tennessee is 5-3 vs spread in its last eight games as a home favorite; over is 10-6-2 in their last 18 home games. Indy is 16-1 in its last 17 games with the Titans, winning last 11 in a row; they won last five visits to Nashville, by 6-3-17-2-8 points. Indy is 0-2 on road this season, losing big both times, 46-9 (+3.5) at Rams, 46-18 (+13) at Seattle- their three home games were all decided by 3 points each. Last three Colt games all went over. Colts are 30-65 on 3rd down in Brissett’s four starts, which is good, but winning on road is doubtful until Luck returns to lineup.
Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Colts at Titans
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-7.5, 48 )
The Tennessee Titans witnessed firsthand last week what life is like without their stud quarterback while the Indianapolis Colts have played under that cloud all season. With Marcus Mariota's availability in question due to a hamstring injury, the Titans aim to snap an 11-game losing skid against the Colts on Monday night when the AFC South rivals meet at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn.
"I want to be very smart about how we do this. It's more than this game, it's a lot of games, that we've got to be concerned about," Tennessee coach Mike Mularkey said of Mariota. Mularkey and company couldn't have been too keen on the performance of Matt Cassel, as the Titans mustered just 188 total yards in their lowest scoring output of the season - a 16-10 loss to Miami. Indianapolis has seen its offense take significant strides as Jacoby Brissett has gotten acclimated under center in place of the injured Andrew Luck (shoulder), who does not have an exact timetable to return. Brissett threw for a career-high 314 yards and rushed for a touchdown last week as the Colts collected their second victory against a winless team with a 26-23 overtime triumph over San Francisco.
POWER RANKINGS: Colts (4) - Titans (3) + home field (-3) = Titans -2
LINE HISTORY: The Titans opened as 8-point home favorites and that number jumped slightly to -8.5 before dropping a full point to -7.5 heading into game day. The total hit betting boards at 49 and has dropped one full point to 48 as of Sunday night. View the complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
Colts - WR Chester Rogers (Probable Monday, Hamstring), CB Quincy Wilson (Probable, Knee), TE Jack Doyle (Probable, Concussion), CB Nat Hairston (Probable Monday, Quadricep), RB Matt Jones (Probable, Knee), QB Jacoby Brissett (Probable Monday, Wrist), LB Anthony Walker Jr. (Questionable Monday, Hamstring), QB Andrew Luck (Early November, Shoulder), OT Jack Mewhort (Questionable Week 14, Knee), S Clayton Geathers (Questionable Week 7, Neck), WR Krishawn Hogan (I-R, Knee).
Titans - QB Marcus Mariota (Questionable, Hamstring), OT Taylor Lewan (Questionable, Knee), S Johnathan Cyprien (Out, Hamstring), WR Corey Davis (Out, Hamstring), LB Aaron Wallace (Questionable Week 11, Back).
ABOUT THE COLTS (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 O/U): T.Y. Hilton gashed the 49ers with seven receptions for 177 yards last week and looks to continue his assault on the Titans, against whom he had a seven-catch, 133-yard performance last October in a comeback win in Nashville. "This game, it counts double. It's very important. It's something that we understand," the 27-year-old Hilton said. Rookie running back Marlon Mack has shown a burst in Indianapolis' backfield, rushing for a 22-yard touchdown and galloping for a key 35-yard run that set up Adam Vinatieri's game-winning 51-yard field goal in overtime. Veteran Frank Gore, who moved into seventh place in NFL history with 13,304 yards rushing, has four touchdowns in his last three games versus Tennessee.
ABOUT THE TITANS (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U):Tennessee's bread and butter has long been its rushing attack, but DeMarco Murray has amassed just 89 yards on the ground in his last two contests - with Miami limiting the Titans to only 69 yards on 20 carries last week. Murray could get untracked against a Colts'defense that is surrendering an NFL-high 31.8 points per game this season, and the veteran has scored a touchdown in each of the past three encounters with the club. Wideout Rishard Matthews has put his best foot forward at home, reeling in 20 receptions for 272 yards and two touchdowns in the past three games. Matthews, however, has been limited to just six catches for 83 yards in the Titans' back-to-back losses the past two weeks.
TRENDS:
* Colts are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Titans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
* Over is 6-1 in Colts last 7 games in October.
* Over is 10-2-1 in Titans last 13 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Colts are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The road underdog Colts are picking up 64 percent of the pointspread wagers and Under is grabbing 52 percent of the totals selections
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-7.5, 48 )
The Tennessee Titans witnessed firsthand last week what life is like without their stud quarterback while the Indianapolis Colts have played under that cloud all season. With Marcus Mariota's availability in question due to a hamstring injury, the Titans aim to snap an 11-game losing skid against the Colts on Monday night when the AFC South rivals meet at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn.
"I want to be very smart about how we do this. It's more than this game, it's a lot of games, that we've got to be concerned about," Tennessee coach Mike Mularkey said of Mariota. Mularkey and company couldn't have been too keen on the performance of Matt Cassel, as the Titans mustered just 188 total yards in their lowest scoring output of the season - a 16-10 loss to Miami. Indianapolis has seen its offense take significant strides as Jacoby Brissett has gotten acclimated under center in place of the injured Andrew Luck (shoulder), who does not have an exact timetable to return. Brissett threw for a career-high 314 yards and rushed for a touchdown last week as the Colts collected their second victory against a winless team with a 26-23 overtime triumph over San Francisco.
POWER RANKINGS: Colts (4) - Titans (3) + home field (-3) = Titans -2
LINE HISTORY: The Titans opened as 8-point home favorites and that number jumped slightly to -8.5 before dropping a full point to -7.5 heading into game day. The total hit betting boards at 49 and has dropped one full point to 48 as of Sunday night. View the complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
Colts - WR Chester Rogers (Probable Monday, Hamstring), CB Quincy Wilson (Probable, Knee), TE Jack Doyle (Probable, Concussion), CB Nat Hairston (Probable Monday, Quadricep), RB Matt Jones (Probable, Knee), QB Jacoby Brissett (Probable Monday, Wrist), LB Anthony Walker Jr. (Questionable Monday, Hamstring), QB Andrew Luck (Early November, Shoulder), OT Jack Mewhort (Questionable Week 14, Knee), S Clayton Geathers (Questionable Week 7, Neck), WR Krishawn Hogan (I-R, Knee).
Titans - QB Marcus Mariota (Questionable, Hamstring), OT Taylor Lewan (Questionable, Knee), S Johnathan Cyprien (Out, Hamstring), WR Corey Davis (Out, Hamstring), LB Aaron Wallace (Questionable Week 11, Back).
ABOUT THE COLTS (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 O/U): T.Y. Hilton gashed the 49ers with seven receptions for 177 yards last week and looks to continue his assault on the Titans, against whom he had a seven-catch, 133-yard performance last October in a comeback win in Nashville. "This game, it counts double. It's very important. It's something that we understand," the 27-year-old Hilton said. Rookie running back Marlon Mack has shown a burst in Indianapolis' backfield, rushing for a 22-yard touchdown and galloping for a key 35-yard run that set up Adam Vinatieri's game-winning 51-yard field goal in overtime. Veteran Frank Gore, who moved into seventh place in NFL history with 13,304 yards rushing, has four touchdowns in his last three games versus Tennessee.
ABOUT THE TITANS (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U):Tennessee's bread and butter has long been its rushing attack, but DeMarco Murray has amassed just 89 yards on the ground in his last two contests - with Miami limiting the Titans to only 69 yards on 20 carries last week. Murray could get untracked against a Colts'defense that is surrendering an NFL-high 31.8 points per game this season, and the veteran has scored a touchdown in each of the past three encounters with the club. Wideout Rishard Matthews has put his best foot forward at home, reeling in 20 receptions for 272 yards and two touchdowns in the past three games. Matthews, however, has been limited to just six catches for 83 yards in the Titans' back-to-back losses the past two weeks.
TRENDS:
* Colts are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Titans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
* Over is 6-1 in Colts last 7 games in October.
* Over is 10-2-1 in Titans last 13 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Colts are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The road underdog Colts are picking up 64 percent of the pointspread wagers and Under is grabbing 52 percent of the totals selections
MNF - Colts at Titans
LAST WEEK
The Colts (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) have managed to stay competitive even with franchise quarterback Andrew Luck sidelined through five games. Indianapolis has split its last four games since getting blown out at Los Angeles to start the season, while having three of those games decided by three points. The Colts staved off the 49ers last Sunday, 26-23 in overtime to barely cash as one-point favorites. Indianapolis jumped out to a 14-point advantage before San Francisco scored two fourth quarter touchdowns to tie it.
Jacoby Brissett threw for a season-high 314 yards, but didn’t complete a touchdown pass for the first time in three games. Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton torched the San Francisco defense for 177 yards on seven receptions, his second game in three weeks with at least 150 yards receiving. Rookie running back Marlon Mack carried the load on the ground with a career high 91 yards, as no Colt had rushed for over 50 yards in any contest this season.
The Titans (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) began the season with a 2-1 start, including victories over the Jaguars and Seahawks. Tennessee has gone backwards recently with consecutive losses at Houston and Miami, while scoring only 24 points in those setbacks. After getting blown out at Houston two weeks ago, 57-14, the Titans played without starting quarterback Marcus Mariota at Miami due to a hamstring injury. Mariota’s absence opened the door for veteran Matt Cassel, who could muster only one touchdown pass in a 16-10 defeat to the Dolphins.
Tennessee’s defense put together a strong effort by allowing 178 yards, but the Titans posted 188 yards themselves as they were held to fewer than 16 points for the third time this season. Running back DeMarco Murray continued to struggle as he racked up 58 yards on 14 carries, while the lone highlight of his season has been a 75-yard touchdown run against Seattle in Week 3.
READY TO RETURN
One starting quarterback will come back to the field this week and it’s not Luck. He continues to rehab from off-season shoulder surgery, while his Pac-12 counterpart Mariota will return following the week to recover from a hamstring injury. In his last action, Mariota was held to 96 yards passing in the blowout loss at Houston, while getting intercepted twice. However, the Heisman Trophy winner did rush for two scores, as he has scored as many touchdowns on the ground this season (3) as touchdown passes.
DIVISION WOES
The Titans have split their two games against AFC South opponents in 2017, as Tennessee has won two games or fewer within the division since 2012. The last time the Titans finished at least .500 in the division came in 2011 when they posted a 3-3 mark against the Colts, Jaguars, and Texans. Indianapolis has yet to face a division opponent as three of its next four games come within the AFC South against Jacksonville next Sunday and at Houston in Week 9. Last season, the Colts compiled a 3-3 SU and 2-3-1 ATS mark inside the division.
PREVIOUS MATCHUPS
The Colts have utterly dominated the Titans over the years by capturing 11 consecutive matchups since 2011. Indianapolis is undefeated in its last five visits to Nashville, including a 34-26 triumph last October as four-point underdogs. Luck torched the Titans for 353 yards and three touchdowns, while Hilton hauled in seven catches for 133 yards and a score. Mariota did his part with two touchdown passes, but the Colts scored two late touchdowns, including a defensive score on a Robert Mathis fumble return.
Not only have the Colts owned the Titans from a straight-up perspective, but Indianapolis has covered 10 of the past 11 meetings. The last time Tennessee dethroned Indianapolis came in Week 8 of 2011 at Nissan Stadium, 27-10, the year before Luck was drafted by the Colts as they finished with just two victories.
TOTAL TALK
Indianapolis has been a good team to back from an OVER perspective, but hitting the OVER in four of five games. There is no rhyme or reason behind their high-scoring games, as the Colts have allowed exactly 46 points in losses to the Rams and Seahawks, but have also yielded 23 points or less in two other contests. Tennessee went through a three-game stretch of OVERS prior to its UNDER at Miami last week, as its OVERS came in two games in which they topped the 33-point mark, and the blowout loss at Houston.
UNDER THE LIGHTS
The Colts have struggled on Monday nights over the years, going 2-5 SU and 4-3 ATS since 2011. Coincidentally, both victories came at Met Life Stadium, beating the Giants in 2014 and the Jets last season. The last time the Colts faced the Titans on Monday night came in 2008 when Indianapolis topped Tennessee, 31-21. Tennessee is playing in its third Monday nighter since 2012, beating the Jets five seasons ago, while losing as a seven-point home underdog, 27-24 to Pittsburgh in 2014.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson feels this is an important month for the Titans, “If Tennessee is going to make the playoffs this is the key stretch in the season with three of the next four games at home with winnable games vs. the Colts, Ravens, and Bengals in Nashville, plus next week’s game at Cleveland which is ahead of a Week 8 bye week.”
If the Titans stick to the ground game, Nelson believes Tennessee has the advantage, “The Titans have scored just 24 points the past two weeks combined, but this is the league’s second-best rushing team and an above average run defense facing a Colts team that is among the worst ground game teams in the NFL.”
Nelson says this Colts’ team remains competitive in spite of Luck’s injury, “The opener with the Rams was a disaster, but the 2-2 run the past four weeks has featured some promise with three close games and a misleading 46-18 result at Seattle, as that was a tie game with 18 minutes to go. The defense has added some young talent led by Ohio State rookie Malik Hooker who already has three interceptions and Brissett has been capable leading the offense.”
From the trends perspective, expert Vince Akins provides a trend that goes against Tennessee, “The Titans are 0-11 ATS since Dec 14, 2008 as a favorite coming off a game where they allowed no more than 15 first downs.” That record includes a 2-4 SU and 0-6 ATS mark against division opponents, while losing at Jacksonville last season, 38-17.
LAST WEEK
The Colts (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) have managed to stay competitive even with franchise quarterback Andrew Luck sidelined through five games. Indianapolis has split its last four games since getting blown out at Los Angeles to start the season, while having three of those games decided by three points. The Colts staved off the 49ers last Sunday, 26-23 in overtime to barely cash as one-point favorites. Indianapolis jumped out to a 14-point advantage before San Francisco scored two fourth quarter touchdowns to tie it.
Jacoby Brissett threw for a season-high 314 yards, but didn’t complete a touchdown pass for the first time in three games. Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton torched the San Francisco defense for 177 yards on seven receptions, his second game in three weeks with at least 150 yards receiving. Rookie running back Marlon Mack carried the load on the ground with a career high 91 yards, as no Colt had rushed for over 50 yards in any contest this season.
The Titans (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) began the season with a 2-1 start, including victories over the Jaguars and Seahawks. Tennessee has gone backwards recently with consecutive losses at Houston and Miami, while scoring only 24 points in those setbacks. After getting blown out at Houston two weeks ago, 57-14, the Titans played without starting quarterback Marcus Mariota at Miami due to a hamstring injury. Mariota’s absence opened the door for veteran Matt Cassel, who could muster only one touchdown pass in a 16-10 defeat to the Dolphins.
Tennessee’s defense put together a strong effort by allowing 178 yards, but the Titans posted 188 yards themselves as they were held to fewer than 16 points for the third time this season. Running back DeMarco Murray continued to struggle as he racked up 58 yards on 14 carries, while the lone highlight of his season has been a 75-yard touchdown run against Seattle in Week 3.
READY TO RETURN
One starting quarterback will come back to the field this week and it’s not Luck. He continues to rehab from off-season shoulder surgery, while his Pac-12 counterpart Mariota will return following the week to recover from a hamstring injury. In his last action, Mariota was held to 96 yards passing in the blowout loss at Houston, while getting intercepted twice. However, the Heisman Trophy winner did rush for two scores, as he has scored as many touchdowns on the ground this season (3) as touchdown passes.
DIVISION WOES
The Titans have split their two games against AFC South opponents in 2017, as Tennessee has won two games or fewer within the division since 2012. The last time the Titans finished at least .500 in the division came in 2011 when they posted a 3-3 mark against the Colts, Jaguars, and Texans. Indianapolis has yet to face a division opponent as three of its next four games come within the AFC South against Jacksonville next Sunday and at Houston in Week 9. Last season, the Colts compiled a 3-3 SU and 2-3-1 ATS mark inside the division.
PREVIOUS MATCHUPS
The Colts have utterly dominated the Titans over the years by capturing 11 consecutive matchups since 2011. Indianapolis is undefeated in its last five visits to Nashville, including a 34-26 triumph last October as four-point underdogs. Luck torched the Titans for 353 yards and three touchdowns, while Hilton hauled in seven catches for 133 yards and a score. Mariota did his part with two touchdown passes, but the Colts scored two late touchdowns, including a defensive score on a Robert Mathis fumble return.
Not only have the Colts owned the Titans from a straight-up perspective, but Indianapolis has covered 10 of the past 11 meetings. The last time Tennessee dethroned Indianapolis came in Week 8 of 2011 at Nissan Stadium, 27-10, the year before Luck was drafted by the Colts as they finished with just two victories.
TOTAL TALK
Indianapolis has been a good team to back from an OVER perspective, but hitting the OVER in four of five games. There is no rhyme or reason behind their high-scoring games, as the Colts have allowed exactly 46 points in losses to the Rams and Seahawks, but have also yielded 23 points or less in two other contests. Tennessee went through a three-game stretch of OVERS prior to its UNDER at Miami last week, as its OVERS came in two games in which they topped the 33-point mark, and the blowout loss at Houston.
UNDER THE LIGHTS
The Colts have struggled on Monday nights over the years, going 2-5 SU and 4-3 ATS since 2011. Coincidentally, both victories came at Met Life Stadium, beating the Giants in 2014 and the Jets last season. The last time the Colts faced the Titans on Monday night came in 2008 when Indianapolis topped Tennessee, 31-21. Tennessee is playing in its third Monday nighter since 2012, beating the Jets five seasons ago, while losing as a seven-point home underdog, 27-24 to Pittsburgh in 2014.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson feels this is an important month for the Titans, “If Tennessee is going to make the playoffs this is the key stretch in the season with three of the next four games at home with winnable games vs. the Colts, Ravens, and Bengals in Nashville, plus next week’s game at Cleveland which is ahead of a Week 8 bye week.”
If the Titans stick to the ground game, Nelson believes Tennessee has the advantage, “The Titans have scored just 24 points the past two weeks combined, but this is the league’s second-best rushing team and an above average run defense facing a Colts team that is among the worst ground game teams in the NFL.”
Nelson says this Colts’ team remains competitive in spite of Luck’s injury, “The opener with the Rams was a disaster, but the 2-2 run the past four weeks has featured some promise with three close games and a misleading 46-18 result at Seattle, as that was a tie game with 18 minutes to go. The defense has added some young talent led by Ohio State rookie Malik Hooker who already has three interceptions and Brissett has been capable leading the offense.”
From the trends perspective, expert Vince Akins provides a trend that goes against Tennessee, “The Titans are 0-11 ATS since Dec 14, 2008 as a favorite coming off a game where they allowed no more than 15 first downs.” That record includes a 2-4 SU and 0-6 ATS mark against division opponents, while losing at Jacksonville last season, 38-17.
Titans host Colts on Monday Night Football
Both the Colts and the Titans will be trying to get back to the .500 mark when the teams meet on Monday Night Football.
Both the Colts and the Titans had hopes of making it to the postseason this year, but injuries have complicated things quite a bit. The Colts have been without QB Andrew Luck (Shoulder) for the first five weeks of the year, and he’s likely to miss this one as well. Luck has, however, started to practice, so he should be back in the next couple of weeks. His team has performed pretty admirably in his absence, so Indianapolis probably feels like it has a shot at making the playoffs upon his arrival. The Titans, meanwhile, were without QB Marcus Mariota (Hamstring) last week. He should, however, be back out there when these teams meet on Monday. Tennessee is also 2-3 and that’s a major disappointment. A lot of people said the Titans were going to be this year’s breakout team, but things haven’t started the way they hoped. They should, however, feel pretty good about earning a victory here. Another thing Tennessee should feel good about is ending an 11-game losing streak to Indianapolis. The Colts have dominated this head-to-head series as of late, but a night game at home should make for one electric atmosphere.
The Colts are likely going to be without Andrew Luck for another couple of weeks, but QB Jacoby Brissett (997 yards, 2 TD) has actually been solid for this team. Brissett doesn’t make many big plays, but he also doesn’t turn the ball over that often. That’s really all Indianapolis can ask out of their quarterback, but he’ll probably also need to do a bit more in this one than he did last week. Brissett did not throw for any touchdowns against a lousy 49ers defense a week ago, and he also threw a pick there. That’s not a good combination, but it’s possible that he’ll turn it around here. The Titans have also struggled defensively, so Brissett must take a few chances here. When the Colts are throwing, it’ll be WR T.Y. Hilton (24 rec. 466 yards, 1 TD) that Brissett is targeting. Even with Luck out, Hilton is on pace for 77 receptions and 1,491 yards. He is an explosive weapon out there for Indianapolis and will be counted on to make plays here. Indianapolis should still, however, do its best to establish the run game. And on defense, a lot of the Colts’ plan will be based on whether or not Mariota is out there. If he is then they’ll need to be ready to stop a very balanced offensive attack. If he’s not then they’ll be able to load up against the run.
The Titans really need QB Marcus Mariota (792 yards, 3 TD, 3 INT) to make his return in this game, as backups Matt Cassel (162 yards, 1 TD) and Brandon Weeden are far from reliable. Cassel has not gotten the job done for Tennessee in his time under center, and the team really isn’t going to want to see what Weeden will do with this offense. The good news is that Mariota did practice a bit this week. That means that he should be out there and if he is then this offense will put up big numbers against this lousy Colts defense. The running game will also be able to get going against this Colts team, so look for both RB DeMarco Murray (273 yards, 1 TD) and Derrick Henry (187 yards, 1 TD) to have their way in this game. Murray can certainly use a big performance after last week’s game, as he really struggled against the Dolphins. This can serve as an opportunity for him to get back on track and build some confidence. On defense, the Titans will need to keep Jacoby Brissett from making plays with his feet. He’s not going to pick them apart from the pocket, but he is dangerous when he is able to get out and run.
Both the Colts and the Titans will be trying to get back to the .500 mark when the teams meet on Monday Night Football.
Both the Colts and the Titans had hopes of making it to the postseason this year, but injuries have complicated things quite a bit. The Colts have been without QB Andrew Luck (Shoulder) for the first five weeks of the year, and he’s likely to miss this one as well. Luck has, however, started to practice, so he should be back in the next couple of weeks. His team has performed pretty admirably in his absence, so Indianapolis probably feels like it has a shot at making the playoffs upon his arrival. The Titans, meanwhile, were without QB Marcus Mariota (Hamstring) last week. He should, however, be back out there when these teams meet on Monday. Tennessee is also 2-3 and that’s a major disappointment. A lot of people said the Titans were going to be this year’s breakout team, but things haven’t started the way they hoped. They should, however, feel pretty good about earning a victory here. Another thing Tennessee should feel good about is ending an 11-game losing streak to Indianapolis. The Colts have dominated this head-to-head series as of late, but a night game at home should make for one electric atmosphere.
The Colts are likely going to be without Andrew Luck for another couple of weeks, but QB Jacoby Brissett (997 yards, 2 TD) has actually been solid for this team. Brissett doesn’t make many big plays, but he also doesn’t turn the ball over that often. That’s really all Indianapolis can ask out of their quarterback, but he’ll probably also need to do a bit more in this one than he did last week. Brissett did not throw for any touchdowns against a lousy 49ers defense a week ago, and he also threw a pick there. That’s not a good combination, but it’s possible that he’ll turn it around here. The Titans have also struggled defensively, so Brissett must take a few chances here. When the Colts are throwing, it’ll be WR T.Y. Hilton (24 rec. 466 yards, 1 TD) that Brissett is targeting. Even with Luck out, Hilton is on pace for 77 receptions and 1,491 yards. He is an explosive weapon out there for Indianapolis and will be counted on to make plays here. Indianapolis should still, however, do its best to establish the run game. And on defense, a lot of the Colts’ plan will be based on whether or not Mariota is out there. If he is then they’ll need to be ready to stop a very balanced offensive attack. If he’s not then they’ll be able to load up against the run.
The Titans really need QB Marcus Mariota (792 yards, 3 TD, 3 INT) to make his return in this game, as backups Matt Cassel (162 yards, 1 TD) and Brandon Weeden are far from reliable. Cassel has not gotten the job done for Tennessee in his time under center, and the team really isn’t going to want to see what Weeden will do with this offense. The good news is that Mariota did practice a bit this week. That means that he should be out there and if he is then this offense will put up big numbers against this lousy Colts defense. The running game will also be able to get going against this Colts team, so look for both RB DeMarco Murray (273 yards, 1 TD) and Derrick Henry (187 yards, 1 TD) to have their way in this game. Murray can certainly use a big performance after last week’s game, as he really struggled against the Dolphins. This can serve as an opportunity for him to get back on track and build some confidence. On defense, the Titans will need to keep Jacoby Brissett from making plays with his feet. He’s not going to pick them apart from the pocket, but he is dangerous when he is able to get out and run.
Houston @ New York
Astros are 7-2 against New York this season, winning 3 of 4 in the Bronx.
Morton is 3-0, 2.38 in his last four starts (under 4-0); Houston is 6-4 in his road starts. Morton won his only ’17 start vs NY, allowing four runs in 5.2 IP. He is 0-1, 3.60 in two career playoff starts.
Sabathia is 3-0, 3.26 in his last five starts; under is 9-3 in his last 2 starts. NY is 10-3 in his home starts this year. Sabathia didn’t pitch against Houston this season. He is 9-5, 4.46 in 21 career playoff games (20 starts).
HOUSTON (106 - 62) at NY YANKEES (95 - 75) - 7:05 PM
CHARLIE MORTON (R) vs. C.C. SABATHIA (L)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 50-50 (-17.2 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 51-33 (+15.2 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 24-8 (+12.9 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
NY YANKEES are 67-34 (+20.0 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 50-35 (+13.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SABATHIA is 20-9 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
SABATHIA is 15-7 (+10.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SABATHIA is 26-13 (+15.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SABATHIA is 10-2 (+9.3 Units) against the money line after a loss this season. (Team's Record)
SABATHIA is 10-4 (+7.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
HOUSTON is 106-62 (+15.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 27-15 (+10.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
HOUSTON is 54-29 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
HOUSTON is 38-19 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
HOUSTON is 33-19 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
HOUSTON is 37-22 (+10.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MORTON is 29-11 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 7-2 (+4.6 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.7 Units)
CHARLIE MORTON vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
MORTON is 1-1 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 5.68 and a WHIP of 1.184.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)
C.C. SABATHIA vs. HOUSTON since 1997
SABATHIA is 2-1 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 4.15 and a WHIP of 1.292.
His team's record is 2-1 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+0.9 units)
HOUSTON vs. NY YANKEES
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Houston is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 7 games when playing Houston
HOUSTON @ NY YANKEES
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
NY Yankees is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
StatFox Super Situations
HOUSTON at NY YANKEES
Play On - Any team (HOUSTON) very good AL offensive team (>=5.4 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA<=3.33), after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games 59-31 since 1997. ( 65.6% | 30.6 units ) 2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 1.0 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
HOUSTON at NY YANKEES
NY YANKEES are 35-12 (+19.4 Units) against the money line in Home games after 2 straight games where they committed no errors over the last 2 seasons. The average score was: NY YANKEES (6.1) , OPPONENT (4.0)
Astros are 7-2 against New York this season, winning 3 of 4 in the Bronx.
Morton is 3-0, 2.38 in his last four starts (under 4-0); Houston is 6-4 in his road starts. Morton won his only ’17 start vs NY, allowing four runs in 5.2 IP. He is 0-1, 3.60 in two career playoff starts.
Sabathia is 3-0, 3.26 in his last five starts; under is 9-3 in his last 2 starts. NY is 10-3 in his home starts this year. Sabathia didn’t pitch against Houston this season. He is 9-5, 4.46 in 21 career playoff games (20 starts).
HOUSTON (106 - 62) at NY YANKEES (95 - 75) - 7:05 PM
CHARLIE MORTON (R) vs. C.C. SABATHIA (L)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 50-50 (-17.2 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 51-33 (+15.2 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 24-8 (+12.9 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
NY YANKEES are 67-34 (+20.0 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 50-35 (+13.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SABATHIA is 20-9 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
SABATHIA is 15-7 (+10.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SABATHIA is 26-13 (+15.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SABATHIA is 10-2 (+9.3 Units) against the money line after a loss this season. (Team's Record)
SABATHIA is 10-4 (+7.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
HOUSTON is 106-62 (+15.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 27-15 (+10.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
HOUSTON is 54-29 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
HOUSTON is 38-19 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
HOUSTON is 33-19 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
HOUSTON is 37-22 (+10.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MORTON is 29-11 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 7-2 (+4.6 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.7 Units)
CHARLIE MORTON vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
MORTON is 1-1 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 5.68 and a WHIP of 1.184.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)
C.C. SABATHIA vs. HOUSTON since 1997
SABATHIA is 2-1 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 4.15 and a WHIP of 1.292.
His team's record is 2-1 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+0.9 units)
HOUSTON vs. NY YANKEES
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Houston is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 7 games when playing Houston
HOUSTON @ NY YANKEES
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
NY Yankees is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
StatFox Super Situations
HOUSTON at NY YANKEES
Play On - Any team (HOUSTON) very good AL offensive team (>=5.4 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA<=3.33), after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games 59-31 since 1997. ( 65.6% | 30.6 units ) 2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 1.0 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
HOUSTON at NY YANKEES
NY YANKEES are 35-12 (+19.4 Units) against the money line in Home games after 2 straight games where they committed no errors over the last 2 seasons. The average score was: NY YANKEES (6.1) , OPPONENT (4.0)
Monday's ALCS Playoff Betting Preview: Astros at Yankees
Houston Astros at New York Yankees (HOU +115, NYY -125, O/U 8.5)
The margin of error in the first two games of the American League Championship Series was razor thin, with the Houston Astros managing to come out on top in each contest to take a commanding lead in the best-of-seven matchup. The New York Yankees will try to turn the tide in their favor when they host Game 3 on Monday.
The Astros earned 2-1 wins in each of the first two games, with Game 2's victory coming only after Jose Altuve scampered around the bases from first on a Carlos Correa's double and scored when Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez was unable to handle the relay throw from shortstop Didi Gregorius. "Both sides are really, really emphasizing staying in the game and just continuing to fight because it can shift in a heartbeat," Houston manager A.J. Hinch told reporters. "Just when you feel good about where you're at, it can shift back to momentum the other way. So it's postseason baseball at its best." Sanchez (0-for-7, five strikeouts) and Aaron Judge (1-for-7, three strikeouts) are enduring a tough series at the plate for New York, but the team has no plans to change its batting order. "I'm going to stick with the same lineup because things can turn really quickly," Yankees manager Joe Girardi told reporters. "There's a lot of guys that struggle in the postseason. That's just what it is. If you just start moving people around trying to play a hot hand, it doesn't necessarily work."
INJURY REPORT:
Astros - CF J. Marisnick (Out For Season, Thumb), SP D. Paulino (Out For Season, Suspension), RP J. Gustave (Out For Season, Elbow).
Yankees - SP L. Severino (day-to-day, Shoulder), SP L. Cessa (Out For Season, Ribs), SP M. Pineda (Out For Season, Elbow).
PITCHING MATCHUP: Astros RH Charlie Morton (0-0, 4.15 ERA) vs. Yankees LH CC Sabathia (0-0, 3.72)
Morton started the clinching game of the AL Division Series at Boston last Monday but did not factor in the decision, leaving after 4 1/3 innings. The New Jersey native surrendered seven hits and walked a pair but limited the damage to two runs in a game Houston went on to win 5-4. Morton earned a victory at New York on May 14, when he struck out 10 while allowing four runs on four hits and four walks in 5 2/3 frames.
Sabathia is coming off a performance in a clinching ALDS game as well and also lasted only 4 1/3 innings in Cleveland. The veteran registered nine strikeouts without walking a batter prior to his exit and was making his second ALDS start after working 5 1/3 solid frames in Game 2. Sabathia is 9-5 with a 4.46 ERA in 21 career postseason appearances - 20 starts - and is facing the Astros for the first time since posting a win in Houston on July 26, 2016.
TRENDS:
* Astros are 6-1 in their last 7 League Championship games.
* Astros are 4-0 in Morton's last 4 starts.
* Yankees are 1-10 in their last 11 League Championship games.
* Yankees are 13-3 in Sabathia's last 16 home starts.
* Over is 6-0 in Astros' last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
* Under is 5-0 in Sabathia's last 5 starts vs. American League West.
* Home team is 45-15 in Cederstrom's last 60 games behind home plate.
CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home chalk Yankees at a rate of 63 percent and the Over is picking up 63 percent of the totals action
Houston Astros at New York Yankees (HOU +115, NYY -125, O/U 8.5)
The margin of error in the first two games of the American League Championship Series was razor thin, with the Houston Astros managing to come out on top in each contest to take a commanding lead in the best-of-seven matchup. The New York Yankees will try to turn the tide in their favor when they host Game 3 on Monday.
The Astros earned 2-1 wins in each of the first two games, with Game 2's victory coming only after Jose Altuve scampered around the bases from first on a Carlos Correa's double and scored when Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez was unable to handle the relay throw from shortstop Didi Gregorius. "Both sides are really, really emphasizing staying in the game and just continuing to fight because it can shift in a heartbeat," Houston manager A.J. Hinch told reporters. "Just when you feel good about where you're at, it can shift back to momentum the other way. So it's postseason baseball at its best." Sanchez (0-for-7, five strikeouts) and Aaron Judge (1-for-7, three strikeouts) are enduring a tough series at the plate for New York, but the team has no plans to change its batting order. "I'm going to stick with the same lineup because things can turn really quickly," Yankees manager Joe Girardi told reporters. "There's a lot of guys that struggle in the postseason. That's just what it is. If you just start moving people around trying to play a hot hand, it doesn't necessarily work."
INJURY REPORT:
Astros - CF J. Marisnick (Out For Season, Thumb), SP D. Paulino (Out For Season, Suspension), RP J. Gustave (Out For Season, Elbow).
Yankees - SP L. Severino (day-to-day, Shoulder), SP L. Cessa (Out For Season, Ribs), SP M. Pineda (Out For Season, Elbow).
PITCHING MATCHUP: Astros RH Charlie Morton (0-0, 4.15 ERA) vs. Yankees LH CC Sabathia (0-0, 3.72)
Morton started the clinching game of the AL Division Series at Boston last Monday but did not factor in the decision, leaving after 4 1/3 innings. The New Jersey native surrendered seven hits and walked a pair but limited the damage to two runs in a game Houston went on to win 5-4. Morton earned a victory at New York on May 14, when he struck out 10 while allowing four runs on four hits and four walks in 5 2/3 frames.
Sabathia is coming off a performance in a clinching ALDS game as well and also lasted only 4 1/3 innings in Cleveland. The veteran registered nine strikeouts without walking a batter prior to his exit and was making his second ALDS start after working 5 1/3 solid frames in Game 2. Sabathia is 9-5 with a 4.46 ERA in 21 career postseason appearances - 20 starts - and is facing the Astros for the first time since posting a win in Houston on July 26, 2016.
TRENDS:
* Astros are 6-1 in their last 7 League Championship games.
* Astros are 4-0 in Morton's last 4 starts.
* Yankees are 1-10 in their last 11 League Championship games.
* Yankees are 13-3 in Sabathia's last 16 home starts.
* Over is 6-0 in Astros' last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
* Under is 5-0 in Sabathia's last 5 starts vs. American League West.
* Home team is 45-15 in Cederstrom's last 60 games behind home plate.
CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home chalk Yankees at a rate of 63 percent and the Over is picking up 63 percent of the totals action
