MNF - Colts at Titans
LAST WEEK
The Colts (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) have managed to stay competitive even with franchise quarterback Andrew Luck sidelined through five games. Indianapolis has split its last four games since getting blown out at Los Angeles to start the season, while having three of those games decided by three points. The Colts staved off the 49ers last Sunday, 26-23 in overtime to barely cash as one-point favorites. Indianapolis jumped out to a 14-point advantage before San Francisco scored two fourth quarter touchdowns to tie it.
Jacoby Brissett threw for a season-high 314 yards, but didn’t complete a touchdown pass for the first time in three games. Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton torched the San Francisco defense for 177 yards on seven receptions, his second game in three weeks with at least 150 yards receiving. Rookie running back Marlon Mack carried the load on the ground with a career high 91 yards, as no Colt had rushed for over 50 yards in any contest this season.
The Titans (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) began the season with a 2-1 start, including victories over the Jaguars and Seahawks. Tennessee has gone backwards recently with consecutive losses at Houston and Miami, while scoring only 24 points in those setbacks. After getting blown out at Houston two weeks ago, 57-14, the Titans played without starting quarterback Marcus Mariota at Miami due to a hamstring injury. Mariota’s absence opened the door for veteran Matt Cassel, who could muster only one touchdown pass in a 16-10 defeat to the Dolphins.
Tennessee’s defense put together a strong effort by allowing 178 yards, but the Titans posted 188 yards themselves as they were held to fewer than 16 points for the third time this season. Running back DeMarco Murray continued to struggle as he racked up 58 yards on 14 carries, while the lone highlight of his season has been a 75-yard touchdown run against Seattle in Week 3.
READY TO RETURN
One starting quarterback will come back to the field this week and it’s not Luck. He continues to rehab from off-season shoulder surgery, while his Pac-12 counterpart Mariota will return following the week to recover from a hamstring injury. In his last action, Mariota was held to 96 yards passing in the blowout loss at Houston, while getting intercepted twice. However, the Heisman Trophy winner did rush for two scores, as he has scored as many touchdowns on the ground this season (3) as touchdown passes.
DIVISION WOES
The Titans have split their two games against AFC South opponents in 2017, as Tennessee has won two games or fewer within the division since 2012. The last time the Titans finished at least .500 in the division came in 2011 when they posted a 3-3 mark against the Colts, Jaguars, and Texans. Indianapolis has yet to face a division opponent as three of its next four games come within the AFC South against Jacksonville next Sunday and at Houston in Week 9. Last season, the Colts compiled a 3-3 SU and 2-3-1 ATS mark inside the division.
PREVIOUS MATCHUPS
The Colts have utterly dominated the Titans over the years by capturing 11 consecutive matchups since 2011. Indianapolis is undefeated in its last five visits to Nashville, including a 34-26 triumph last October as four-point underdogs. Luck torched the Titans for 353 yards and three touchdowns, while Hilton hauled in seven catches for 133 yards and a score. Mariota did his part with two touchdown passes, but the Colts scored two late touchdowns, including a defensive score on a Robert Mathis fumble return.
Not only have the Colts owned the Titans from a straight-up perspective, but Indianapolis has covered 10 of the past 11 meetings. The last time Tennessee dethroned Indianapolis came in Week 8 of 2011 at Nissan Stadium, 27-10, the year before Luck was drafted by the Colts as they finished with just two victories.
TOTAL TALK
Indianapolis has been a good team to back from an OVER perspective, but hitting the OVER in four of five games. There is no rhyme or reason behind their high-scoring games, as the Colts have allowed exactly 46 points in losses to the Rams and Seahawks, but have also yielded 23 points or less in two other contests. Tennessee went through a three-game stretch of OVERS prior to its UNDER at Miami last week, as its OVERS came in two games in which they topped the 33-point mark, and the blowout loss at Houston.
UNDER THE LIGHTS
The Colts have struggled on Monday nights over the years, going 2-5 SU and 4-3 ATS since 2011. Coincidentally, both victories came at Met Life Stadium, beating the Giants in 2014 and the Jets last season. The last time the Colts faced the Titans on Monday night came in 2008 when Indianapolis topped Tennessee, 31-21. Tennessee is playing in its third Monday nighter since 2012, beating the Jets five seasons ago, while losing as a seven-point home underdog, 27-24 to Pittsburgh in 2014.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson feels this is an important month for the Titans, “If Tennessee is going to make the playoffs this is the key stretch in the season with three of the next four games at home with winnable games vs. the Colts, Ravens, and Bengals in Nashville, plus next week’s game at Cleveland which is ahead of a Week 8 bye week.”
If the Titans stick to the ground game, Nelson believes Tennessee has the advantage, “The Titans have scored just 24 points the past two weeks combined, but this is the league’s second-best rushing team and an above average run defense facing a Colts team that is among the worst ground game teams in the NFL.”
Nelson says this Colts’ team remains competitive in spite of Luck’s injury, “The opener with the Rams was a disaster, but the 2-2 run the past four weeks has featured some promise with three close games and a misleading 46-18 result at Seattle, as that was a tie game with 18 minutes to go. The defense has added some young talent led by Ohio State rookie Malik Hooker who already has three interceptions and Brissett has been capable leading the offense.”
From the trends perspective, expert Vince Akins provides a trend that goes against Tennessee, “The Titans are 0-11 ATS since Dec 14, 2008 as a favorite coming off a game where they allowed no more than 15 first downs.” That record includes a 2-4 SU and 0-6 ATS mark against division opponents, while losing at Jacksonville last season, 38-17.