CFB betting look for Week 7: LSU seeks win streak vs. Auburn
Will Harris
ESPN INSIDER
10/10/17
Our college football look-ahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season. In Week 7 we explain what's really wrong with LSU, examine the tale of the tape in one of the decade's most lopsided series, look for clues in Mark Dantonio's past, spotlight the top-40 caliber team that's already lost four games and expose the team whose defensive numbers don't add up.
Portfolio checkup
Which teams we're buying and selling and why.
Buy
Air Force Falcons
Air Force is 0-4 versus FBS competition this year, but the opposing lineup has been pretty sporty: powerhouse Michigan, an excellent Navy team, two-time defending Mountain West champ San Diego State and the best New Mexico squad in a decade. Never mind the mounting losses -- Air Force has played one quarter of poor football all year. There's a big disparity between the Falcons' traditional, schedule-blind statistical profile and the picture painted by advanced, opponent-adjusted numbers.
We'll see some 5-7 teams in bowls again this year, and the Falcons probably need to win five of their remaining seven games to make the postseason. They'll be favored in all but two as the schedule lightens down the stretch, and the team has gone 5-2 or better over the final seven regular-season games in each of the past three seasons. Well-coached teams improve as the season wears on. Air Force has a proven propensity toward that, and this bunch is already a whole lot better than the record suggests.
Sell
Houston Cougars
Houston ranks just 78th in total defense, 94th in passing yards per game allowed and 84th in yards per rush allowed. Yet the Cougars are allowing just 16 points per game, good for 12th nationally in scoring defense. Usually this kind of disparity means one of two things. It can indicate a well-honed "bend-but-don't-break and make your stand in the red zone" philosophy executed to perfection, as with Kansas State or Iowa. Or it can mean that a team has just been getting lucky. Houston has been a great red-zone team so far, one of only two -- along with Wisconsin -- allowing touchdowns on just one-third of opponents' chances.
But a closer review of those 15 drives reveals mostly unforced, self-inflicted errors on the part of the opposing offense. We don't trust this defense to maintain anywhere near its scoring average, especially as the schedule stiffens. Nor are we bullish on this pedestrian offense that commits plenty of unforced errors of its own and lacks explosion. Houston's staff is not as strong as it was under Tom Herman. The Cougars were a rare odds-on favorite to win the AAC last year, but are now waning in the league pecking order, both near- and long-term.
Slate standout
A game we'll be studying closely this week and what we're looking for.
Auburn Tigers (-6.5) at LSU Tigers
LSU got a much-needed win after a drama-filled week, but an obviously improving Auburn team is a far different test than short-handed Florida. Ed Orgeron is neither as good of a coach as LSU hoped it was signing, nor remotely as bad as he was portrayed in the lead-up to last week's game. He deserves a lot of credit for rallying the team, but can he do it again this week against better competition? We're somewhat dubious, even with Tiger Stadium there to help, but what we're absolutely certain of is that even if LSU does win this game there are too many cracks in the 2017 Tigers to plug them weekly and expect the dam to hold.
Good teams aren't just built during the season. Championship traits must be developed in winter conditioning, spring practice, summer workouts and fall camp. Values and purpose must be instilled, player leadership developed, unity and chemistry fostered, and it all has to start happening from the jump in January. Orgeron's able turns as interim boss at both USC and LSU earned him the full-time job, but he took over for both Lane Kiffin at USC and Les Miles at LSU after at least one-third of the season had elapsed. Orgeron hasn't had to build a team from scratch in the offseason since his days at Ole Miss, and he never forged a winner there.
Forget whatever you're hearing about how LSU doesn't have sufficiently good players or scheme. It ain't about the Xs and the Os ... and it ain't about the Jimmies and the Joes either. It's about the collective intangibles, and how the whole thing comes together. And the real story with LSU is that the 2017 Tigers weren't built for success from the beginning. We're not necessarily anxious to fade this crew every week, but we guarantee that what's really broken here cannot be fixed without another, better offseason.
Handicapper's toolbox
A different concept every Monday, and how to apply it on Saturday.
Know the difference between meaningless trends and ones with a repeatable basis.
Some historical trends are meaningful; some are not. Generally, the useful ones involve programs with stable cultures repeatedly facing the same set of circumstances and responding the same way.
One program with plenty of experience in a particular scenario is Michigan State following a big win over Michigan. Mark Dantonio's Spartans have now won eight of 10 versus the Wolverines since Michigan's Mike Hart made his infamous "little brother" comments following the 2007 game. Dantonio knows what it's like to have to refocus his team after the exhilaration of a victory over a hated rival. And he's done it well. Five of the previous seven victories were over ranked Michigan teams, and on all five occasions Michigan State was favored the following week. Dantonio got his team down from the high and locked back in every time, as Sparty covered all five by an average of 10 points.
There are two reasons this year could be different. This is the youngest MSU team of the group, plus this was the only win over a ranked Michigan team achieved as a double-digit underdog. Despite those caveats, we'd say that if you end up liking Sparty enough to lay the price in Minneapolis against Minnesota this week, don't be deterred by the prospect of a letdown after a big win over the rival Wolverines.
Chalk Bits
Next year, Oklahoma's current rookie boss Lincoln Riley will face the same test Ed Orgeron failed this offseason. Riley inherited a turnkey, player-led team that was forged by a Hall of Fame coach for the first six months of the year. Come January, he'll have to do it himself for the first time. In the meantime, it appears some elements of Bob Stoops' program culture are certainly still embedded -- the Iowa State loss was the ninth game Oklahoma has dropped outright as a double-digit favorite since 2011.
The Sooners' ATS response in the following game has been mixed, with a 4-4 record against the number on those occasions. However, those four ATS losses entailed three easy wins-but-not-quite-covers plus a bowl loss after a season-ending upset at the hands of Oklahoma State. The four times the Sooners played the next week and laid a number less than three touchdowns resulted in four comfortable covers. Our best early-week guess is that Riley and this player-led team rally nicely and give their backers a good chance against Texas.
Few series have been as lopsided the past decade as Wisconsin's dominance of Purdue. The Badgers upset fifth-ranked Purdue in 2004, and in 10 meetings since, the tale of the tape is painful for the Boilermakers -- Wisconsin has won all 10 meetings by double digits. Eight of those saw margins of at least three touchdowns, and Wisconsin has covered all but one, the exception a near miss in a 17-point win as 21-point chalk. The Badgers have gained at least 381 yards in the past nine meetings, while 303 is the most the Boilers have managed. Wisconsin has also outrushed Purdue by an average of 268-85 in that span.
South Alabama has only played football since 2009 and faced a full FBS schedule for the first time in 2012. The Jaguars very much want to develop the natural in-state rivalry with Sun Belt league-mate Troy, and the series has thus far seen hard-fought slugfests befitting a rivalry matchup. Troy covered as road chalk in the Jags' first year in the Sun Belt, but in the past four seasons the series is split 2-2 with the underdog covering all four.
Will Harris
ESPN INSIDER
10/10/17
Our college football look-ahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season. In Week 7 we explain what's really wrong with LSU, examine the tale of the tape in one of the decade's most lopsided series, look for clues in Mark Dantonio's past, spotlight the top-40 caliber team that's already lost four games and expose the team whose defensive numbers don't add up.
Portfolio checkup
Which teams we're buying and selling and why.
Buy
Air Force Falcons
Air Force is 0-4 versus FBS competition this year, but the opposing lineup has been pretty sporty: powerhouse Michigan, an excellent Navy team, two-time defending Mountain West champ San Diego State and the best New Mexico squad in a decade. Never mind the mounting losses -- Air Force has played one quarter of poor football all year. There's a big disparity between the Falcons' traditional, schedule-blind statistical profile and the picture painted by advanced, opponent-adjusted numbers.
We'll see some 5-7 teams in bowls again this year, and the Falcons probably need to win five of their remaining seven games to make the postseason. They'll be favored in all but two as the schedule lightens down the stretch, and the team has gone 5-2 or better over the final seven regular-season games in each of the past three seasons. Well-coached teams improve as the season wears on. Air Force has a proven propensity toward that, and this bunch is already a whole lot better than the record suggests.
Sell
Houston Cougars
Houston ranks just 78th in total defense, 94th in passing yards per game allowed and 84th in yards per rush allowed. Yet the Cougars are allowing just 16 points per game, good for 12th nationally in scoring defense. Usually this kind of disparity means one of two things. It can indicate a well-honed "bend-but-don't-break and make your stand in the red zone" philosophy executed to perfection, as with Kansas State or Iowa. Or it can mean that a team has just been getting lucky. Houston has been a great red-zone team so far, one of only two -- along with Wisconsin -- allowing touchdowns on just one-third of opponents' chances.
But a closer review of those 15 drives reveals mostly unforced, self-inflicted errors on the part of the opposing offense. We don't trust this defense to maintain anywhere near its scoring average, especially as the schedule stiffens. Nor are we bullish on this pedestrian offense that commits plenty of unforced errors of its own and lacks explosion. Houston's staff is not as strong as it was under Tom Herman. The Cougars were a rare odds-on favorite to win the AAC last year, but are now waning in the league pecking order, both near- and long-term.
Slate standout
A game we'll be studying closely this week and what we're looking for.
Auburn Tigers (-6.5) at LSU Tigers
LSU got a much-needed win after a drama-filled week, but an obviously improving Auburn team is a far different test than short-handed Florida. Ed Orgeron is neither as good of a coach as LSU hoped it was signing, nor remotely as bad as he was portrayed in the lead-up to last week's game. He deserves a lot of credit for rallying the team, but can he do it again this week against better competition? We're somewhat dubious, even with Tiger Stadium there to help, but what we're absolutely certain of is that even if LSU does win this game there are too many cracks in the 2017 Tigers to plug them weekly and expect the dam to hold.
Good teams aren't just built during the season. Championship traits must be developed in winter conditioning, spring practice, summer workouts and fall camp. Values and purpose must be instilled, player leadership developed, unity and chemistry fostered, and it all has to start happening from the jump in January. Orgeron's able turns as interim boss at both USC and LSU earned him the full-time job, but he took over for both Lane Kiffin at USC and Les Miles at LSU after at least one-third of the season had elapsed. Orgeron hasn't had to build a team from scratch in the offseason since his days at Ole Miss, and he never forged a winner there.
Forget whatever you're hearing about how LSU doesn't have sufficiently good players or scheme. It ain't about the Xs and the Os ... and it ain't about the Jimmies and the Joes either. It's about the collective intangibles, and how the whole thing comes together. And the real story with LSU is that the 2017 Tigers weren't built for success from the beginning. We're not necessarily anxious to fade this crew every week, but we guarantee that what's really broken here cannot be fixed without another, better offseason.
Handicapper's toolbox
A different concept every Monday, and how to apply it on Saturday.
Know the difference between meaningless trends and ones with a repeatable basis.
Some historical trends are meaningful; some are not. Generally, the useful ones involve programs with stable cultures repeatedly facing the same set of circumstances and responding the same way.
One program with plenty of experience in a particular scenario is Michigan State following a big win over Michigan. Mark Dantonio's Spartans have now won eight of 10 versus the Wolverines since Michigan's Mike Hart made his infamous "little brother" comments following the 2007 game. Dantonio knows what it's like to have to refocus his team after the exhilaration of a victory over a hated rival. And he's done it well. Five of the previous seven victories were over ranked Michigan teams, and on all five occasions Michigan State was favored the following week. Dantonio got his team down from the high and locked back in every time, as Sparty covered all five by an average of 10 points.
There are two reasons this year could be different. This is the youngest MSU team of the group, plus this was the only win over a ranked Michigan team achieved as a double-digit underdog. Despite those caveats, we'd say that if you end up liking Sparty enough to lay the price in Minneapolis against Minnesota this week, don't be deterred by the prospect of a letdown after a big win over the rival Wolverines.
Chalk Bits
Next year, Oklahoma's current rookie boss Lincoln Riley will face the same test Ed Orgeron failed this offseason. Riley inherited a turnkey, player-led team that was forged by a Hall of Fame coach for the first six months of the year. Come January, he'll have to do it himself for the first time. In the meantime, it appears some elements of Bob Stoops' program culture are certainly still embedded -- the Iowa State loss was the ninth game Oklahoma has dropped outright as a double-digit favorite since 2011.
The Sooners' ATS response in the following game has been mixed, with a 4-4 record against the number on those occasions. However, those four ATS losses entailed three easy wins-but-not-quite-covers plus a bowl loss after a season-ending upset at the hands of Oklahoma State. The four times the Sooners played the next week and laid a number less than three touchdowns resulted in four comfortable covers. Our best early-week guess is that Riley and this player-led team rally nicely and give their backers a good chance against Texas.
Few series have been as lopsided the past decade as Wisconsin's dominance of Purdue. The Badgers upset fifth-ranked Purdue in 2004, and in 10 meetings since, the tale of the tape is painful for the Boilermakers -- Wisconsin has won all 10 meetings by double digits. Eight of those saw margins of at least three touchdowns, and Wisconsin has covered all but one, the exception a near miss in a 17-point win as 21-point chalk. The Badgers have gained at least 381 yards in the past nine meetings, while 303 is the most the Boilers have managed. Wisconsin has also outrushed Purdue by an average of 268-85 in that span.
South Alabama has only played football since 2009 and faced a full FBS schedule for the first time in 2012. The Jaguars very much want to develop the natural in-state rivalry with Sun Belt league-mate Troy, and the series has thus far seen hard-fought slugfests befitting a rivalry matchup. Troy covered as road chalk in the Jags' first year in the Sun Belt, but in the past four seasons the series is split 2-2 with the underdog covering all four.
