Contrarian NFL betting strategy for Week 6
Mark Gallant
ESPN INSIDER
10/11/17
With our first "scheduled" bye week in the books, Week 6 is a good time to look at a very simple system that has yielded strong results historically. Bye weeks give teams an opportunity to strategize, rest and heal, which is incredibly important in such a brutal sport. However, not all teams react to their extended break the same way. As you might have guessed, favorites perform much better than underdogs coming off a bye, according to the data at Bet Labs Sports.
TEAMS OFF A BYE ATS RECORD UNITS WON ROI
Overall 235-202 +21.26 +4.9%
Favorites 137-99 +31.66 +13.4%
Dogs/Pick 'Ems 98-103 -11.33 -5.7%
As you can see, this strategy doesn't work for underdogs, so they're worth filtering out. Favorites, however, have yielded greater than a 13 percent return on investment (ROI) and have covered over 58 percent of the time.
Why It Works
In my opinion, there are two major reasons why this works. The first is health. There are injured players who will have extra time for nagging strains and sprains to heal. We have a great example this week in Falcons receiver Julio Jones, who might not have been able to play this past weekend because of a hip flexor injury, but is expected to play Sunday against the Dolphins.
Even the players who aren't listed on the injury report are without a doubt dealing with aches, pains, bumps and bruises. Those players, who might have been at around 90 percent health, should be able to play at full speed with the help of the extra rest.
The second reason is the extra time these teams get to plan for the next game. Teams with a bye week can focus on their upcoming opponent for two whole weeks. Meanwhile, their opponent has half as much time to watch film, study certain players, and come up with a plan of attack.
So why does this only work for favorites? Your guess is as good as mine, but one would have to come to the conclusion that underdogs, who are generally bad or mediocre teams, just don't take advantage of their time off like better teams do.
This is specifically tied to the second reason regarding a team's ability to game-plan. Underdogs often have worse coaching staffs than favorites and seemingly aren't able to gain an edge despite their extra time off.
A similar phenomenon occurs after the MLB All-Star Game, as favorites have historically won at a much higher rate on the first day back from the break.
Week 6 System Matches
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
This is looking like it will be the least popular of the four matches this week, but that is never something we would shy away from. The Saints have been two completely different teams in their first four games. They opened the season looking awful, allowing a combined 65 points in their first two games. They lost and failed to cover in both.
However, they've won and covered in their past two games, allowing a combined 13 points. We'll look for them to cover at home against the Lions, whose comeback effort against the Panthers this past week came up just short.
The pick: Saints -4.5
Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons (-11)
This is a pick that I'm sure the public will get behind. The Falcons are coming off a disappointing home loss to the Bills, but should have their superstar wide receiver Jones back. There is also a chance that Vic Beasley, last year's sack leader, plays his first game of the season.
Atlanta struggled to score after Jones and Mohamed Sanu left the game against Buffalo, but I don't think the Falcons will need to put up a ton of points in order to cover this week.
They'll try to keep quarterback Jay Cutler and the Dolphins' offense dormant. Cutler threw for just 92 yards last week against the Titans, dropping his quarterback rating to 74.8 -- third worst in the league ahead of Joe Flacco and DeShone Kizer.
The pick: Falcons -11
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins (-9.5)
The Redskins have had two impressive victories this season against the Rams and Raiders, but fell in their most recent game to the undefeated Chiefs.
With that being said, bettors aren't currently buying into that high line, as 54 percent of spread bets are on the 49ers. San Francisco has been snakebitten as of late, losing each of their past four games by three points or less. Despite the 49ers' 0-5 record, they've gone 3-2 against the spread and it appears bettors expect them to continue to cover.
We will go against the grain on this one.
The pick: Redskins -9.5
New York Giants at Denver Broncos (-12)
The poor Giants just can't catch a break, as they will literally be without all of their top four receivers this week -- three of whom are out for the season.
Their offense hadn't been clicking before the injuries, and now Eli Manning's weapon cache will be fully loaded with practice squad-caliber players.
This is just about the worst week for such a slew of injuries to occur, as they'll have to try to muster some sort of offense against a stacked Broncos defense.
This game opened at minus-9 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and has already moved to minus-12. According to our public betting data, 85 percent of spread dollars are on Denver, which can help explain that line movement.
The pick: Broncos -12
Note: Lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check in at ESPN Chalk's Live NFL Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and public betting percentage data. Odds info used in system matches reflect current odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
Mark Gallant
ESPN INSIDER
10/11/17
With our first "scheduled" bye week in the books, Week 6 is a good time to look at a very simple system that has yielded strong results historically. Bye weeks give teams an opportunity to strategize, rest and heal, which is incredibly important in such a brutal sport. However, not all teams react to their extended break the same way. As you might have guessed, favorites perform much better than underdogs coming off a bye, according to the data at Bet Labs Sports.
TEAMS OFF A BYE ATS RECORD UNITS WON ROI
Overall 235-202 +21.26 +4.9%
Favorites 137-99 +31.66 +13.4%
Dogs/Pick 'Ems 98-103 -11.33 -5.7%
As you can see, this strategy doesn't work for underdogs, so they're worth filtering out. Favorites, however, have yielded greater than a 13 percent return on investment (ROI) and have covered over 58 percent of the time.
Why It Works
In my opinion, there are two major reasons why this works. The first is health. There are injured players who will have extra time for nagging strains and sprains to heal. We have a great example this week in Falcons receiver Julio Jones, who might not have been able to play this past weekend because of a hip flexor injury, but is expected to play Sunday against the Dolphins.
Even the players who aren't listed on the injury report are without a doubt dealing with aches, pains, bumps and bruises. Those players, who might have been at around 90 percent health, should be able to play at full speed with the help of the extra rest.
The second reason is the extra time these teams get to plan for the next game. Teams with a bye week can focus on their upcoming opponent for two whole weeks. Meanwhile, their opponent has half as much time to watch film, study certain players, and come up with a plan of attack.
So why does this only work for favorites? Your guess is as good as mine, but one would have to come to the conclusion that underdogs, who are generally bad or mediocre teams, just don't take advantage of their time off like better teams do.
This is specifically tied to the second reason regarding a team's ability to game-plan. Underdogs often have worse coaching staffs than favorites and seemingly aren't able to gain an edge despite their extra time off.
A similar phenomenon occurs after the MLB All-Star Game, as favorites have historically won at a much higher rate on the first day back from the break.
Week 6 System Matches
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
This is looking like it will be the least popular of the four matches this week, but that is never something we would shy away from. The Saints have been two completely different teams in their first four games. They opened the season looking awful, allowing a combined 65 points in their first two games. They lost and failed to cover in both.
However, they've won and covered in their past two games, allowing a combined 13 points. We'll look for them to cover at home against the Lions, whose comeback effort against the Panthers this past week came up just short.
The pick: Saints -4.5
Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons (-11)
This is a pick that I'm sure the public will get behind. The Falcons are coming off a disappointing home loss to the Bills, but should have their superstar wide receiver Jones back. There is also a chance that Vic Beasley, last year's sack leader, plays his first game of the season.
Atlanta struggled to score after Jones and Mohamed Sanu left the game against Buffalo, but I don't think the Falcons will need to put up a ton of points in order to cover this week.
They'll try to keep quarterback Jay Cutler and the Dolphins' offense dormant. Cutler threw for just 92 yards last week against the Titans, dropping his quarterback rating to 74.8 -- third worst in the league ahead of Joe Flacco and DeShone Kizer.
The pick: Falcons -11
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins (-9.5)
The Redskins have had two impressive victories this season against the Rams and Raiders, but fell in their most recent game to the undefeated Chiefs.
With that being said, bettors aren't currently buying into that high line, as 54 percent of spread bets are on the 49ers. San Francisco has been snakebitten as of late, losing each of their past four games by three points or less. Despite the 49ers' 0-5 record, they've gone 3-2 against the spread and it appears bettors expect them to continue to cover.
We will go against the grain on this one.
The pick: Redskins -9.5
New York Giants at Denver Broncos (-12)
The poor Giants just can't catch a break, as they will literally be without all of their top four receivers this week -- three of whom are out for the season.
Their offense hadn't been clicking before the injuries, and now Eli Manning's weapon cache will be fully loaded with practice squad-caliber players.
This is just about the worst week for such a slew of injuries to occur, as they'll have to try to muster some sort of offense against a stacked Broncos defense.
This game opened at minus-9 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and has already moved to minus-12. According to our public betting data, 85 percent of spread dollars are on Denver, which can help explain that line movement.
The pick: Broncos -12
Note: Lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check in at ESPN Chalk's Live NFL Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and public betting percentage data. Odds info used in system matches reflect current odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
