Best bet for Dodgers-Cubs NLCS
Joe Peta
ESPN INSIDER
It's said if you want to be the champ, you haveto beat the champ. For the fourth postseason series in row over the last two years, the Chicago Cubs, MLB's reigning champion, showed that they are an awfully tough out. The Los Angeles Dodgers, in a repeat of last year's NLCS, get the next shot.
On the surface, the Dodgers are better equipped this year to knock off the Cubs. In 2017, Los Angeles is the team with the 100-plus wins, and therefore home-field advantage in the series. Last year the Dodgers entered the series off an exhausting five-game NLCS victory with a bullpen so taxed, it was Clayton Kershaw who earned the save in the decisive Game 5. The roles are certainly reversed this year.
The Dodgers have a rested bullpen (just 11 2/3 innings pitched in the last 12 days) and Kershaw is set to face a Cubs lineup that may not have scored a lot of runs in the NLDS (17 in five games, with nine in Thursday night's thriller) but constantly drove pitch counts up with their patient approach at the plate. Plus they faced either Max Scherzer or Stephen Strasburg in just short of half of the innings played against Washington. As nice an addition as Yu Darvish is as a Kershaw running mate, it's tough to match the Nationals' duo for power pitching.
In addition to last year's NLCS history, the two teams faced off six times this year with the Dodgers taking the season series 4-2. Los Angeles pitchers were particularly tough on the Cubs lineup, surrendering just 11 runs in the six contests. John Lackey, the most likely Game 1 starter for Chicago, since every other Cubs starter saw action in Games 4 or 5, didn't get any run support the two times he faced Los Angeles this season. The Dodgers shut out the Cubs in both of Lackey's starts.
The Cubs' Game 5 heroics mean I didn't foresee this matchup when the NLDS battles began. With that in mind, let's take a look at the matchup through the lens of Las Vegas pricing.
Chicago Cubs (+155 for the series) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-185 for the series)
Game 1 odds: TK
Game 1 over/under: TK
As mentioned above, facing Strasburg and Scherzer in nearly half the innings played in a short series is a daunting task for an offense, and I expect to see the Cubs have a lot more success in this series. There's certainly some concern when they take the mound, though.
Chicago pitchers issued 25 walks in the NLDS and it nearly cost them the series. In fact, if it hadn't been for the much-discussed pickoff of Jose Lobaton in the bottom of the eighth inning, it very well may have been their downfall. The reason that weakness is particularly worrisome entering this series is that the Dodgers led the majors in walk rate during the regular season.
It's somewhat fitting that pickoff saved the season for the Cubs because they rode historically good defense to the title last year, and if they repeat it's almost certainly going to be a deciding factor this year. By my adjusted defensive efficiency metrics, Chicago quietly played the best defense in baseball after the All-Star break and despite the headline-grabbing four errors in Game 3 last series, they raised their defensive performance in the entire series -- that is converting batted balls into outs and erasing existing baserunners -- to a level just above last year's incredible mark.
The Dodgers play good defense too, and once you adjust for ballpark effects they have an offense that's a lot closer to the Cubs than you might think, despite the 52-run deficit in regular-season runs scored. They definitely have the best starting pitcher in Kershaw and baseball's best one-inning reliever in Kenley Jansen. A ranking of the rest of the teams' pitching staffs may be a toss-up.
Put it all together and a Dodgers win is logical and it's not a mispricing to make Los Angeles the series favorites. Still, I don't think they have the punch necessary to knockout the champs. Cubs in 7.
ESPN Chalk pick: Chicago +155 for the series
Joe Peta
ESPN INSIDER
It's said if you want to be the champ, you haveto beat the champ. For the fourth postseason series in row over the last two years, the Chicago Cubs, MLB's reigning champion, showed that they are an awfully tough out. The Los Angeles Dodgers, in a repeat of last year's NLCS, get the next shot.
On the surface, the Dodgers are better equipped this year to knock off the Cubs. In 2017, Los Angeles is the team with the 100-plus wins, and therefore home-field advantage in the series. Last year the Dodgers entered the series off an exhausting five-game NLCS victory with a bullpen so taxed, it was Clayton Kershaw who earned the save in the decisive Game 5. The roles are certainly reversed this year.
The Dodgers have a rested bullpen (just 11 2/3 innings pitched in the last 12 days) and Kershaw is set to face a Cubs lineup that may not have scored a lot of runs in the NLDS (17 in five games, with nine in Thursday night's thriller) but constantly drove pitch counts up with their patient approach at the plate. Plus they faced either Max Scherzer or Stephen Strasburg in just short of half of the innings played against Washington. As nice an addition as Yu Darvish is as a Kershaw running mate, it's tough to match the Nationals' duo for power pitching.
In addition to last year's NLCS history, the two teams faced off six times this year with the Dodgers taking the season series 4-2. Los Angeles pitchers were particularly tough on the Cubs lineup, surrendering just 11 runs in the six contests. John Lackey, the most likely Game 1 starter for Chicago, since every other Cubs starter saw action in Games 4 or 5, didn't get any run support the two times he faced Los Angeles this season. The Dodgers shut out the Cubs in both of Lackey's starts.
The Cubs' Game 5 heroics mean I didn't foresee this matchup when the NLDS battles began. With that in mind, let's take a look at the matchup through the lens of Las Vegas pricing.
Chicago Cubs (+155 for the series) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-185 for the series)
Game 1 odds: TK
Game 1 over/under: TK
As mentioned above, facing Strasburg and Scherzer in nearly half the innings played in a short series is a daunting task for an offense, and I expect to see the Cubs have a lot more success in this series. There's certainly some concern when they take the mound, though.
Chicago pitchers issued 25 walks in the NLDS and it nearly cost them the series. In fact, if it hadn't been for the much-discussed pickoff of Jose Lobaton in the bottom of the eighth inning, it very well may have been their downfall. The reason that weakness is particularly worrisome entering this series is that the Dodgers led the majors in walk rate during the regular season.
It's somewhat fitting that pickoff saved the season for the Cubs because they rode historically good defense to the title last year, and if they repeat it's almost certainly going to be a deciding factor this year. By my adjusted defensive efficiency metrics, Chicago quietly played the best defense in baseball after the All-Star break and despite the headline-grabbing four errors in Game 3 last series, they raised their defensive performance in the entire series -- that is converting batted balls into outs and erasing existing baserunners -- to a level just above last year's incredible mark.
The Dodgers play good defense too, and once you adjust for ballpark effects they have an offense that's a lot closer to the Cubs than you might think, despite the 52-run deficit in regular-season runs scored. They definitely have the best starting pitcher in Kershaw and baseball's best one-inning reliever in Kenley Jansen. A ranking of the rest of the teams' pitching staffs may be a toss-up.
Put it all together and a Dodgers win is logical and it's not a mispricing to make Los Angeles the series favorites. Still, I don't think they have the punch necessary to knockout the champs. Cubs in 7.
ESPN Chalk pick: Chicago +155 for the series
