Best bets on Week 6 NFL games
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
It's Week 6 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons (-12.5)
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 69 percent Atlanta
Phil Steele's take: Atlanta had a week off to think about being upset at home against Buffalo, while Miami had just 178 yards in last week's win but had the benefit of taking on a Tennessee team without QB Marcus Mariota. Atlanta is just 5-14 ATS as a home favorite since 2014, but it does get back some key offensive players, including Julio Jones, who was forced to exit early versus the Bills. The Dolphins, meanwhile, have averaged just 196 yards and 7.3 points over their past three games. Miami does not have enough on offense to stick with a Falcons team that had averaged 29 points per game before their previous loss.
ATS pick: Atlanta
Warren Sharp's take: Miami's offense is a total mess, and the worst part of it is that it has come against the third-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. Their run game was bad last year, but many other analysts misconstrued their average yardage as productive, when in fact, they were highly unsuccessful but saw a high rate of explosive runs mixed in to raise their average. The Dolphins' run game currently ranks third worst against the third-easiest schedule of run defenses. Atlanta's defense is better than it was in 2016 and might see the return of Vic Beasley Jr. this week. The Dolphins' defense has been extremely stout against the run while playing a tough schedule of rushing teams, so the Falcons might need to look for success through the air, which could potentially mean a big game for Taylor Gabriel, their healthiest wideout.
Lean: Falcons
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Atlanta 29, Miami 18
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Minnesota Vikings
Total: 46.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 78 percent Green Bay
Phil Steele's take: How do you go against Aaron Rodgers? Sam Bradford tried to play versus the Bears, but it was Case Keenum who led the win in the second half. The Vikings clearly have the edge on defense and are plus-70 yards per game the past three weeks. The Packers beat both Chicago and Dallas despite being outgained by 57 yards per game. Minnesota is plus-104 yards per game at home, and Green Bay is minus-32 yards per game on the road. I rate the game a toss-up, and with the spread at 3.5, I lean with the home underdog here.
ATS pick: Lean on Minnesota
Warren Sharp's take: Minnesota's stats this year are entirely skewed because of one tremendous home game featuring Bradford against the Saints' pass defense and another home game with Case Keenum dominating against a Buccaneers team that had massive cluster of injuries and many players fighting sickness. Apart from that, their full starts with Keenum have not eclipsed nine points scored, and their 17-point second-half performance on Monday night against the rookie-led Mitchell Trubisky came largely as a result of a Bears run defense that lost multiple LBs and could not call out coverages any longer. In addition, the team might be without leading receiver Stefon Diggs this week. The Packers have played a brutal schedule thus far against strong teams in the Cowboys, Bengals, Falcons and Seahawks. However, all four of those games were close. It will be tough in Minnesota, and the Vikings have done well covering spreads in this series. But with the injuries to the Vikings, I would look only to the Packers.
Lean: Packers
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Minnesota 23, Green Bay 22
The pick: Minnesota and the under --- MIN +3.5, 47
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
Total: 50
PickCenter public consensus pick: 64 percent Detroit
Phil Steele's take: The Saints have arguably displayed their best defense in years over their past two games by holding the Panthers to just 13 points in Carolina and shutting out the Dolphins in London. While Detroit is sitting at 3-2 as it heads to the Superdome, it's worth mentioning that the Lions have been outgained by 45 yards per game this season. Even with Matthew Stafford and his late-comeback heroics, the Lions' offense is averaging just 288 yards per game. While the Saints appear to be the stronger team, Detroit's comeback ability cannot be ignored if Stafford (leg/ankle injuries) is under center for the visitors in this one.
ATS pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: As I first discussed last week, the Lions' offense is much worse this year than it was last year, but it is being masked by the team's turnover margin. However, when the Lions didn't have that edge against the Panthers last weekend, we saw what happened. At home, Detroit was completely dominated, even after holding the Panthers to only one yard per carry the entire game. The Lions seem intent on running the ball more often, and while it hasn't paid off often this season, this might be the week that it could assist the offense, as the Saints rank 30th against the run. The Saints received a bye after their London game, and their offense might have better direction after trading Adrian Peterson.
Lean: Lions
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New Orleans 28, Detroit 24
The pick: Detroit and the over --- DET +4.5, 50.5
New England Patriots (-9) at New York Jets
Total: 47.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 70 percent New England
Phil Steele's take: It's completely shocking that the Jets (3-2) are tied with New England and Buffalo atop the AFC East standings. The Jets do own wins over two of the NFL's weakest teams in Miami and Cleveland. Despite a 419-212 edge in yardage against the Jets last week, the Browns couldn't capitalize following turnovers at the 7- and 2-yard lines, being stopped on downs at the 4-yard line and missing a pair of field goals. The Jets have covered nine of their past 11 as a division home 'dog since 2013, while the Patriots have covered just two of their past nine as a division away favorite dating back to that same 2013 campaign. Bill Belichick has extra time to prepare for this one, however, giving the Patriots a legitimate chance of claiming the spread victory.
ATS pick: Lean New England
Warren Sharp's take: The Jets have enjoyed a surprising start in large part due to three inept offenses. Their victories have come over the Browns, Jaguars and Dolphins, and all were close, save for the Dolphins. In particular, these passing offenses were inept, ranking 31st, 23rd and 29th, respectively. They now must face the second-rated Patriots passing offense. And while the Patriots' pass defense has been terrible (as the entire defense has been), it's not a huge help for the Jets, as they've played the 29th-, 30th- and 31st-ranked passing defenses in three of their past four games. While the Jets' passing defense has ranked 18th and looked passable, I think the Jets will look significantly worse in this game. How much Tom Brady throws depends on his health, but he should see success.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New England 31, New York Jets 21
The pick: New England and the over --- NE -9.5, 47.5
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins (-11)
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 54 percent Washington
Phil Steele's take: The Redskins lost to Philadelphia in the opener, but they have put together three impressive games in a row. The Redskins are coming off a loss and are fresh off a bye. San Francisco has been a scrappy team; though they're 0-5, their past four losses have all been by three points or fewer. Washington has a large edge on defense, holding foes to 71 yards per game below their season average, and San Francisco is allowing 36 above. The key is that the 49ers are on their third straight road game, including back-to-back overtime matchups. I wonder how much they have left in the tank for this one.
ATS pick: Lean on Washington
Erin Rynning's take: As expected, the 49ers took a step forward offensively last week against the Colts. The passing game perked up, as Brian Hoyer threw for 353 yards. (Note: The Redskins will be missing a key cog in cornerback Josh Norman.) Meanwhile, the Redskins' offense will be potent this week off their bye week, with tight end Jordan Reed expected to return to health. The 49ers' pass defense is highly questionable, and they'll arguably face the top air attack this season to date.
Pick: Over
Warren Sharp's take: After playing the bad offenses of Arizona (27th) and Indianapolis (32nd) in back-to-back weeks, the 49ers defense must face the Redskins at home, fresh off of a bye. Washington ranks 11th in offensive efficiency, as well as seventh in passing success rate against the seventh-most difficult schedule. The Redskins offense ranks 29th in the red zone and 19th on third down, but has also faced a top-10 schedule of defenses. The 49ers' defense ranks 22nd and 31st in those areas. One of the biggest surprises of the season has been the Redskins defense, which ranks fourth in efficiency against the No. 1 schedule of opposing offenses. However, Josh Norman, their top cornerback, is still dealing with a rib injury. The 49ers must do a better job of getting their run game (ranking 31st) going to help support quarterback Brian Hoyer, but that will be difficult against the No. 8 run defense.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Washington 26, San Francisco 18
The pick: San Francisco and the Under --- SF +9.5, 46.5
Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
Total: 39
PickCenter public consensus pick: 60 percent Baltimore
Phil Steele's take: This game goes against the grain of how I normally handicap the NFL, as I will usually take the stronger statistical team getting points. I have picked the Bears in all three of their home games, and they are 3-0 ATS at home. On the road, they are actually plus-47 yards, but 0-2 due to turnovers. The Ravens may be 3-2 overall, but they are minus-40 yards per game. Baltimore is 3-0 this year, both straight up and ATS when they win the turnover margin, and their defense is known to generate turnovers. Mitchell Trubisky will get his first career road start, and the Bears are minus-seven in turnovers in their two road games, losing by a 64-21 margin. I will call for Baltimore to win the turnover margin and get the cover.
ATS pick: Lean Baltimore
Warren Sharp's take: Trubisky looked raw, underprepared and overwhelmed in his start against the Vikings on Monday. His upside is certainly far greater than that of Mike Glennon, and he showed it on select throws. But this team resorted to gimmick plays with extra time to prepare at home. Now the Bears must face a much more difficult Ravens defense, on the road, and on short rest. I have little doubt things will go poorly for Trubisky in this position. The Bears absolutely must stick to their ground game to move the ball, which the Steelers' Le'Veon Bell had a lot of success with in the Ravens' last home game. Meanwhile, the Ravens are struggling immensely on offense and are down starters at multiple positions. I expect an extremely balanced performance out of the Ravens' offense, one that is focused on minimizing turnovers.
Lean: Under Bears team total
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Baltimore 23, Chicago 16
The pick: Chicago and the under --- CHI +7, 40
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (-9.5)
Total: 47
PickCenter public consensus pick: 54 percent Houston
Phil Steele's take: While the Texans lost J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus to season-ending injuries a week ago, this defensive unit has the ability to remain one of the league's best -- as both stars also missed significant time in 2016. Deshaun Watson has guided the offense to 41.3 points per game in his three starts. The Cleveland defense is allowing just 305 yards per game, but that is misleading, as it faced a Steelers team with a rusty Le'Veon Bell and the struggling offenses of Baltimore, Indianapolis (without Andrew Luck), Cincinnati and the Jets. DeShone Kizer (3-9 TD-INT ratio) was benched last week, and Kevin Hogan is expected to take over under center in this one. Houston gets my call in this one, as they are coming off a loss and have covered eight of their past nine games as a non-division home favorite dating back to the start of 2014.
ATS pick: Houston
Warren Sharp's take: The Cleveland Browns are a bad team with an extremely interesting schedule. Their offense has played the NFL's second-most difficult schedule of opposing defenses, while their defense has played the NFL's easiest schedule of opposing offenses. So Cleveland's D really hasn't been tested much. Squaring off against the quickly depleted Texans defense (without Watt and Mercilus) is the new starting quarterback for the Browns, Hogan. He isn't new to the system or to coach Hue Jackson, being that he was with this team in 2016 and played several games in relief. I definitely view Hogan as a substantial upgrade over Kizer, given the way Kizer had been playing. Hogan is far more mobile than you might guess and can gain yards on the ground to convert first downs.
Play: Browns +10
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Houston 28, Cleveland 18
The pick: Houston and the over --- HST -9.5, 45
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Total: 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 65 percent Tampa Bay
Phil Steele's take: I expected Arizona to be a playoff contender this year, but its only wins have come in overtime against two of the league's weakest teams in Indianapolis and San Francisco. The Cardinals are 0-5 versus the Las Vegas number without running back David Johnson, who was injured in the opener (2,000 yards from scrimmage last season), while their best offensive players are getting long in the tooth. Despite holding the Patriots to just 19 points last Thursday, a trio of missed field goals cost the Buccaneers the victory. A surprising stat to me is that Arizona is plus-15 yards per game and the Buccaneers are minus-22. Tampa Bay's only wins have been versus the Giants and Chicago, so I will pass on this one.
ATS pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: The marquee matchup in this game will be the vaunted offense of the Buccaneers (eighth in efficiency) taking on the Cardinals defense (13th in efficiency), but both sides of that matchup have not been tested much this year. The Bucs have faced the second-easiest schedule of defenses, while the Cardinals have faced the eighth-easiest schedule of offenses. The Buccaneers were playing with a bunch of injuries on defense, as they receive a few key starters back this week, including T.J. Ward. The pass rush could be key against the Cardinals' offensive line. The Bucs rank as the NFL's worst pass rush defense, and Carson Palmer will need time because this offense is the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Tampa Bay 24, Arizona 22
The pick: Over 44.5
Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)
Total: 42.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 56 percent Rams
Phil Steele's take: This is my "misleading final" game of the week. Last week, Jacksonville came out victorious in Pittsburgh, despite being outgained by a 362-215 margin. The key to the win came by way of five interceptions (including two returned for touchdowns) from Ben Roethlisberger. The Rams, meanwhile, had a 375-241 edge in yardage against the Seahawks last week, but five turnovers (including Todd Gurley fumbling into the end zone for a touchback) did them in. Los Angeles already has won in Dallas, and Jacksonville has a clear pattern of great games followed by poor ones. I will call for the outright upset in this one, as Rams' defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has to be licking his chops for a matchup against inconsistent quarterback Blake Bortles.
ATS pick: Los Angeles Rams
Erin Rynning's take: The up-and-coming Jaguars just can't stand prosperity in the early season. They've floundered after key big wins against the Texans and Ravens, losing to the Titans and Jets. Obviously, that trend is concerning after their biggest win in recent memory, last week's 30-9 blowout of the Steelers. It's certainly worth noting that the Jaguars continue to have the bounces go their way, with 15 takeaways on the season and 74 points off turnovers. Last season, they recorded 13 takeaways in 16 games! Don't be fooled by the Rams' misleading 16-10 loss a week ago, as they owned a 375-241 edge in yardage. I noted last week that the Rams' defense would take a step forward, which will prove the difference in this matchup.
ATS pick: Rams
Warren Sharp's take: The Jaguars are the easiest team to game plan for: You need to run the ball. They rank 31st against the run. Try to establish the lead and make the Jaguars throw the ball on offense, as they play from behind. But far too often, teams abandon analytics and play "their brand" of football, which keeps the Jaguars in the game. Last week, leading 3-0 after the first quarter, the Steelers called nine Le'Veon Bell runs and 46 Roethlisberger passes. The Rams cannot fall into that trap. The issue on the other side of the ball is the Rams' run defense, and Aaron Donald and team will have to improve their 18th-rated run defense (vs. the 25th-rated schedule) in order to slow down Leonard Fournette.
ATS pick: Lean Rams
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Jacksonville 22, Los Angeles Rams 20
The pick: Los Angeles Rams and the under --- LAR +2.5, 43.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)
Total: 47
PickCenter public consensus pick: 63 percent Kansas City
Phil Steele's take: As I watched Fournette racing 90 yards for a touchdown late versus the Steelers last week, my first reaction was to play on Pittsburgh this week off a misleading loss. When I looked at where they were playing this week, I changed my mind. Kansas City is on a perfect 5-0 ATS run this year, although it was kept alive by a ton of luck versus the Redskins (the Chiefs returned Washington's attempted lateral back for a touchdown on the game's final play). The Chiefs did however lead a solid Houston team 39-20 in the middle of the fourth quarter last week. Since 2014, Roethlisberger has a 61-21 TD-INT ratio at home but is just 27-24 on the road. Kansas City has played the tougher schedule and is competing with legitimate playoff revenge for last season's 18-16 loss to the Steelers at Arrowhead Stadium.
ATS pick: Kansas City
Erin Rynning's take: It's a time of turmoil for the Steelers, and the Chiefs have thrived to become a Super Bowl favorite. Such is life in the NFL, and in this league, everything can change weekly. The Steelers still own a plethora of talent up and down their roster, while they're most likely sitting on their best performance of the season, after last week's embarrassing 30-9 loss to the Jaguars. As impressive as the 5-0 Chiefs appear, they've actually outgained just three of their opponents and one by 100-plus yards. The generous points are too hard to pass up, with the Steelers' best still better than the Chiefs' best.
Pick: Steelers and lean over
Warren Sharp's take: It looks like Travis Kelce will be back from his concussion, but the Chiefs will still have to navigate injuries to receivers Chris Conley and Albert Wilson (Wilson was cleared to play). The Steelers defense has played a ridiculously easy schedule of opposing offenses. While they rank fifth in efficiency, they have faced the fifth-easiest schedule eof opposing offenses. The quarterbacks they have faced: DeShone Kizer, Case Keenum, Mike Glennon, Joe Flacco and Blake Bortles. Regardless of how you feel about Alex Smith, even the 2016 version of Smith was head and shoulders above those five quarterbacks, and the 2017 version is much more aggressive and in command of the offense. I don't believe the Steelers are a fundamentally well-coached team, which could allow another edge for the Chiefs behind Andy Reid and Bob Sutton. Ben Roethlisberger historically plays worse on the road than at home, and the Steelers defense will be facing the NFL's most efficient offense (which has come against the 10th-rated defenses).
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Kansas City 24, Pittsburgh 21
The pick: Pittsburgh and the under --- PIT +4, 46
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
It's Week 6 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons (-12.5)
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 69 percent Atlanta
Phil Steele's take: Atlanta had a week off to think about being upset at home against Buffalo, while Miami had just 178 yards in last week's win but had the benefit of taking on a Tennessee team without QB Marcus Mariota. Atlanta is just 5-14 ATS as a home favorite since 2014, but it does get back some key offensive players, including Julio Jones, who was forced to exit early versus the Bills. The Dolphins, meanwhile, have averaged just 196 yards and 7.3 points over their past three games. Miami does not have enough on offense to stick with a Falcons team that had averaged 29 points per game before their previous loss.
ATS pick: Atlanta
Warren Sharp's take: Miami's offense is a total mess, and the worst part of it is that it has come against the third-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. Their run game was bad last year, but many other analysts misconstrued their average yardage as productive, when in fact, they were highly unsuccessful but saw a high rate of explosive runs mixed in to raise their average. The Dolphins' run game currently ranks third worst against the third-easiest schedule of run defenses. Atlanta's defense is better than it was in 2016 and might see the return of Vic Beasley Jr. this week. The Dolphins' defense has been extremely stout against the run while playing a tough schedule of rushing teams, so the Falcons might need to look for success through the air, which could potentially mean a big game for Taylor Gabriel, their healthiest wideout.
Lean: Falcons
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Atlanta 29, Miami 18
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Minnesota Vikings
Total: 46.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 78 percent Green Bay
Phil Steele's take: How do you go against Aaron Rodgers? Sam Bradford tried to play versus the Bears, but it was Case Keenum who led the win in the second half. The Vikings clearly have the edge on defense and are plus-70 yards per game the past three weeks. The Packers beat both Chicago and Dallas despite being outgained by 57 yards per game. Minnesota is plus-104 yards per game at home, and Green Bay is minus-32 yards per game on the road. I rate the game a toss-up, and with the spread at 3.5, I lean with the home underdog here.
ATS pick: Lean on Minnesota
Warren Sharp's take: Minnesota's stats this year are entirely skewed because of one tremendous home game featuring Bradford against the Saints' pass defense and another home game with Case Keenum dominating against a Buccaneers team that had massive cluster of injuries and many players fighting sickness. Apart from that, their full starts with Keenum have not eclipsed nine points scored, and their 17-point second-half performance on Monday night against the rookie-led Mitchell Trubisky came largely as a result of a Bears run defense that lost multiple LBs and could not call out coverages any longer. In addition, the team might be without leading receiver Stefon Diggs this week. The Packers have played a brutal schedule thus far against strong teams in the Cowboys, Bengals, Falcons and Seahawks. However, all four of those games were close. It will be tough in Minnesota, and the Vikings have done well covering spreads in this series. But with the injuries to the Vikings, I would look only to the Packers.
Lean: Packers
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Minnesota 23, Green Bay 22
The pick: Minnesota and the under --- MIN +3.5, 47
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
Total: 50
PickCenter public consensus pick: 64 percent Detroit
Phil Steele's take: The Saints have arguably displayed their best defense in years over their past two games by holding the Panthers to just 13 points in Carolina and shutting out the Dolphins in London. While Detroit is sitting at 3-2 as it heads to the Superdome, it's worth mentioning that the Lions have been outgained by 45 yards per game this season. Even with Matthew Stafford and his late-comeback heroics, the Lions' offense is averaging just 288 yards per game. While the Saints appear to be the stronger team, Detroit's comeback ability cannot be ignored if Stafford (leg/ankle injuries) is under center for the visitors in this one.
ATS pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: As I first discussed last week, the Lions' offense is much worse this year than it was last year, but it is being masked by the team's turnover margin. However, when the Lions didn't have that edge against the Panthers last weekend, we saw what happened. At home, Detroit was completely dominated, even after holding the Panthers to only one yard per carry the entire game. The Lions seem intent on running the ball more often, and while it hasn't paid off often this season, this might be the week that it could assist the offense, as the Saints rank 30th against the run. The Saints received a bye after their London game, and their offense might have better direction after trading Adrian Peterson.
Lean: Lions
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New Orleans 28, Detroit 24
The pick: Detroit and the over --- DET +4.5, 50.5
New England Patriots (-9) at New York Jets
Total: 47.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 70 percent New England
Phil Steele's take: It's completely shocking that the Jets (3-2) are tied with New England and Buffalo atop the AFC East standings. The Jets do own wins over two of the NFL's weakest teams in Miami and Cleveland. Despite a 419-212 edge in yardage against the Jets last week, the Browns couldn't capitalize following turnovers at the 7- and 2-yard lines, being stopped on downs at the 4-yard line and missing a pair of field goals. The Jets have covered nine of their past 11 as a division home 'dog since 2013, while the Patriots have covered just two of their past nine as a division away favorite dating back to that same 2013 campaign. Bill Belichick has extra time to prepare for this one, however, giving the Patriots a legitimate chance of claiming the spread victory.
ATS pick: Lean New England
Warren Sharp's take: The Jets have enjoyed a surprising start in large part due to three inept offenses. Their victories have come over the Browns, Jaguars and Dolphins, and all were close, save for the Dolphins. In particular, these passing offenses were inept, ranking 31st, 23rd and 29th, respectively. They now must face the second-rated Patriots passing offense. And while the Patriots' pass defense has been terrible (as the entire defense has been), it's not a huge help for the Jets, as they've played the 29th-, 30th- and 31st-ranked passing defenses in three of their past four games. While the Jets' passing defense has ranked 18th and looked passable, I think the Jets will look significantly worse in this game. How much Tom Brady throws depends on his health, but he should see success.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New England 31, New York Jets 21
The pick: New England and the over --- NE -9.5, 47.5
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins (-11)
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 54 percent Washington
Phil Steele's take: The Redskins lost to Philadelphia in the opener, but they have put together three impressive games in a row. The Redskins are coming off a loss and are fresh off a bye. San Francisco has been a scrappy team; though they're 0-5, their past four losses have all been by three points or fewer. Washington has a large edge on defense, holding foes to 71 yards per game below their season average, and San Francisco is allowing 36 above. The key is that the 49ers are on their third straight road game, including back-to-back overtime matchups. I wonder how much they have left in the tank for this one.
ATS pick: Lean on Washington
Erin Rynning's take: As expected, the 49ers took a step forward offensively last week against the Colts. The passing game perked up, as Brian Hoyer threw for 353 yards. (Note: The Redskins will be missing a key cog in cornerback Josh Norman.) Meanwhile, the Redskins' offense will be potent this week off their bye week, with tight end Jordan Reed expected to return to health. The 49ers' pass defense is highly questionable, and they'll arguably face the top air attack this season to date.
Pick: Over
Warren Sharp's take: After playing the bad offenses of Arizona (27th) and Indianapolis (32nd) in back-to-back weeks, the 49ers defense must face the Redskins at home, fresh off of a bye. Washington ranks 11th in offensive efficiency, as well as seventh in passing success rate against the seventh-most difficult schedule. The Redskins offense ranks 29th in the red zone and 19th on third down, but has also faced a top-10 schedule of defenses. The 49ers' defense ranks 22nd and 31st in those areas. One of the biggest surprises of the season has been the Redskins defense, which ranks fourth in efficiency against the No. 1 schedule of opposing offenses. However, Josh Norman, their top cornerback, is still dealing with a rib injury. The 49ers must do a better job of getting their run game (ranking 31st) going to help support quarterback Brian Hoyer, but that will be difficult against the No. 8 run defense.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Washington 26, San Francisco 18
The pick: San Francisco and the Under --- SF +9.5, 46.5
Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
Total: 39
PickCenter public consensus pick: 60 percent Baltimore
Phil Steele's take: This game goes against the grain of how I normally handicap the NFL, as I will usually take the stronger statistical team getting points. I have picked the Bears in all three of their home games, and they are 3-0 ATS at home. On the road, they are actually plus-47 yards, but 0-2 due to turnovers. The Ravens may be 3-2 overall, but they are minus-40 yards per game. Baltimore is 3-0 this year, both straight up and ATS when they win the turnover margin, and their defense is known to generate turnovers. Mitchell Trubisky will get his first career road start, and the Bears are minus-seven in turnovers in their two road games, losing by a 64-21 margin. I will call for Baltimore to win the turnover margin and get the cover.
ATS pick: Lean Baltimore
Warren Sharp's take: Trubisky looked raw, underprepared and overwhelmed in his start against the Vikings on Monday. His upside is certainly far greater than that of Mike Glennon, and he showed it on select throws. But this team resorted to gimmick plays with extra time to prepare at home. Now the Bears must face a much more difficult Ravens defense, on the road, and on short rest. I have little doubt things will go poorly for Trubisky in this position. The Bears absolutely must stick to their ground game to move the ball, which the Steelers' Le'Veon Bell had a lot of success with in the Ravens' last home game. Meanwhile, the Ravens are struggling immensely on offense and are down starters at multiple positions. I expect an extremely balanced performance out of the Ravens' offense, one that is focused on minimizing turnovers.
Lean: Under Bears team total
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Baltimore 23, Chicago 16
The pick: Chicago and the under --- CHI +7, 40
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (-9.5)
Total: 47
PickCenter public consensus pick: 54 percent Houston
Phil Steele's take: While the Texans lost J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus to season-ending injuries a week ago, this defensive unit has the ability to remain one of the league's best -- as both stars also missed significant time in 2016. Deshaun Watson has guided the offense to 41.3 points per game in his three starts. The Cleveland defense is allowing just 305 yards per game, but that is misleading, as it faced a Steelers team with a rusty Le'Veon Bell and the struggling offenses of Baltimore, Indianapolis (without Andrew Luck), Cincinnati and the Jets. DeShone Kizer (3-9 TD-INT ratio) was benched last week, and Kevin Hogan is expected to take over under center in this one. Houston gets my call in this one, as they are coming off a loss and have covered eight of their past nine games as a non-division home favorite dating back to the start of 2014.
ATS pick: Houston
Warren Sharp's take: The Cleveland Browns are a bad team with an extremely interesting schedule. Their offense has played the NFL's second-most difficult schedule of opposing defenses, while their defense has played the NFL's easiest schedule of opposing offenses. So Cleveland's D really hasn't been tested much. Squaring off against the quickly depleted Texans defense (without Watt and Mercilus) is the new starting quarterback for the Browns, Hogan. He isn't new to the system or to coach Hue Jackson, being that he was with this team in 2016 and played several games in relief. I definitely view Hogan as a substantial upgrade over Kizer, given the way Kizer had been playing. Hogan is far more mobile than you might guess and can gain yards on the ground to convert first downs.
Play: Browns +10
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Houston 28, Cleveland 18
The pick: Houston and the over --- HST -9.5, 45
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Total: 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 65 percent Tampa Bay
Phil Steele's take: I expected Arizona to be a playoff contender this year, but its only wins have come in overtime against two of the league's weakest teams in Indianapolis and San Francisco. The Cardinals are 0-5 versus the Las Vegas number without running back David Johnson, who was injured in the opener (2,000 yards from scrimmage last season), while their best offensive players are getting long in the tooth. Despite holding the Patriots to just 19 points last Thursday, a trio of missed field goals cost the Buccaneers the victory. A surprising stat to me is that Arizona is plus-15 yards per game and the Buccaneers are minus-22. Tampa Bay's only wins have been versus the Giants and Chicago, so I will pass on this one.
ATS pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: The marquee matchup in this game will be the vaunted offense of the Buccaneers (eighth in efficiency) taking on the Cardinals defense (13th in efficiency), but both sides of that matchup have not been tested much this year. The Bucs have faced the second-easiest schedule of defenses, while the Cardinals have faced the eighth-easiest schedule of offenses. The Buccaneers were playing with a bunch of injuries on defense, as they receive a few key starters back this week, including T.J. Ward. The pass rush could be key against the Cardinals' offensive line. The Bucs rank as the NFL's worst pass rush defense, and Carson Palmer will need time because this offense is the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Tampa Bay 24, Arizona 22
The pick: Over 44.5
Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)
Total: 42.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 56 percent Rams
Phil Steele's take: This is my "misleading final" game of the week. Last week, Jacksonville came out victorious in Pittsburgh, despite being outgained by a 362-215 margin. The key to the win came by way of five interceptions (including two returned for touchdowns) from Ben Roethlisberger. The Rams, meanwhile, had a 375-241 edge in yardage against the Seahawks last week, but five turnovers (including Todd Gurley fumbling into the end zone for a touchback) did them in. Los Angeles already has won in Dallas, and Jacksonville has a clear pattern of great games followed by poor ones. I will call for the outright upset in this one, as Rams' defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has to be licking his chops for a matchup against inconsistent quarterback Blake Bortles.
ATS pick: Los Angeles Rams
Erin Rynning's take: The up-and-coming Jaguars just can't stand prosperity in the early season. They've floundered after key big wins against the Texans and Ravens, losing to the Titans and Jets. Obviously, that trend is concerning after their biggest win in recent memory, last week's 30-9 blowout of the Steelers. It's certainly worth noting that the Jaguars continue to have the bounces go their way, with 15 takeaways on the season and 74 points off turnovers. Last season, they recorded 13 takeaways in 16 games! Don't be fooled by the Rams' misleading 16-10 loss a week ago, as they owned a 375-241 edge in yardage. I noted last week that the Rams' defense would take a step forward, which will prove the difference in this matchup.
ATS pick: Rams
Warren Sharp's take: The Jaguars are the easiest team to game plan for: You need to run the ball. They rank 31st against the run. Try to establish the lead and make the Jaguars throw the ball on offense, as they play from behind. But far too often, teams abandon analytics and play "their brand" of football, which keeps the Jaguars in the game. Last week, leading 3-0 after the first quarter, the Steelers called nine Le'Veon Bell runs and 46 Roethlisberger passes. The Rams cannot fall into that trap. The issue on the other side of the ball is the Rams' run defense, and Aaron Donald and team will have to improve their 18th-rated run defense (vs. the 25th-rated schedule) in order to slow down Leonard Fournette.
ATS pick: Lean Rams
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Jacksonville 22, Los Angeles Rams 20
The pick: Los Angeles Rams and the under --- LAR +2.5, 43.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)
Total: 47
PickCenter public consensus pick: 63 percent Kansas City
Phil Steele's take: As I watched Fournette racing 90 yards for a touchdown late versus the Steelers last week, my first reaction was to play on Pittsburgh this week off a misleading loss. When I looked at where they were playing this week, I changed my mind. Kansas City is on a perfect 5-0 ATS run this year, although it was kept alive by a ton of luck versus the Redskins (the Chiefs returned Washington's attempted lateral back for a touchdown on the game's final play). The Chiefs did however lead a solid Houston team 39-20 in the middle of the fourth quarter last week. Since 2014, Roethlisberger has a 61-21 TD-INT ratio at home but is just 27-24 on the road. Kansas City has played the tougher schedule and is competing with legitimate playoff revenge for last season's 18-16 loss to the Steelers at Arrowhead Stadium.
ATS pick: Kansas City
Erin Rynning's take: It's a time of turmoil for the Steelers, and the Chiefs have thrived to become a Super Bowl favorite. Such is life in the NFL, and in this league, everything can change weekly. The Steelers still own a plethora of talent up and down their roster, while they're most likely sitting on their best performance of the season, after last week's embarrassing 30-9 loss to the Jaguars. As impressive as the 5-0 Chiefs appear, they've actually outgained just three of their opponents and one by 100-plus yards. The generous points are too hard to pass up, with the Steelers' best still better than the Chiefs' best.
Pick: Steelers and lean over
Warren Sharp's take: It looks like Travis Kelce will be back from his concussion, but the Chiefs will still have to navigate injuries to receivers Chris Conley and Albert Wilson (Wilson was cleared to play). The Steelers defense has played a ridiculously easy schedule of opposing offenses. While they rank fifth in efficiency, they have faced the fifth-easiest schedule eof opposing offenses. The quarterbacks they have faced: DeShone Kizer, Case Keenum, Mike Glennon, Joe Flacco and Blake Bortles. Regardless of how you feel about Alex Smith, even the 2016 version of Smith was head and shoulders above those five quarterbacks, and the 2017 version is much more aggressive and in command of the offense. I don't believe the Steelers are a fundamentally well-coached team, which could allow another edge for the Chiefs behind Andy Reid and Bob Sutton. Ben Roethlisberger historically plays worse on the road than at home, and the Steelers defense will be facing the NFL's most efficient offense (which has come against the 10th-rated defenses).
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Kansas City 24, Pittsburgh 21
The pick: Pittsburgh and the under --- PIT +4, 46
