How to bet New York-Denver
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
10/15/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Sunday night's tilt between the New York Giants and Denver Broncos. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bet.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday afternoon.
New York Giants at Denver Broncos (-11.5)
Total: 39
PickCenter public consensus pick: 72 percent on Denver
Phil Steele
Just how good has the Denver rush defense been so far this season? Well, they've held Melvin Gordon, Ezekiel Elliott, LeSean McCoy and Marshawn Lynch to just 95 rushing yards combined. The Broncos have covered in six of their past seven games after a bye week and sit at 16-6 ATS against NFC foes dating back to 2011, including a 42-17 dismantling of the Dallas Cowboys earlier this year. The Giants come in as one of three winless teams after blown fourth-quarter leads in each of their past two matchups. With the Giants' receiving corps decimated due to injuries and Odell Beckham Jr., Brandon Marshall and Sterling Shepard all on the shelf, the Broncos should have no issue getting the cover in this one, despite the elevated line.
ATS pick: Denver
Erin Rynning
It's difficult to envision a scenario bleaker than the Giants on offense. Already with an immobile quarterback, void of solid protection and a blundering running game, they're now depleted at the wide receiver position. It's difficult to figure out how coach Ben McAdoo will move the football against the rock-solid Broncos defense from his menu of options. Look for the Broncos to keep it simple and conservative on offense, much like they did in their last win against the Raiders, understanding it will be difficult for the Giants to score.
Pick: Lean under
Warren Sharp
The Giants are an absolute mess right now due to injuries. Their offense is without their top three wide receivers, and they are a team that ranks 23rd in rushing efficiency. This team will have to completely reinvent itself to see success, but I'm not sure that McAdoo is capable of making that adjustment. New York should go to a much slower, more run-based offense to try and stay out on the field. However, it is the second-most pass heavy offense with the ninth-fastest tempo. The fact that the Giants are so inefficient on offense means their defense (playing without suspended cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie) is out on the field longer.
The problem is the Broncos have the NFL's best run defense in the league, so changing up to a run heavy formula this week certainly would make it difficult to move the ball. It's simply an extremely tough spot for the Giants. The Broncos should be able to lean more on their ninth-rated run offense against the surprisingly bad Giants run defense, which ranks as the fifth-worst unit in football.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay
ATS pick: New York and the under
Prediction: Denver 22, New York Giants 15
Parolin's prop bets
23.5 completions by Eli Manning (Over EVEN, Under -120)
Who is Eli Manning throwing to? Beckham Jr., Marshall and Dwayne Harris were placed on injured reserve, while Sterling Shepard is out with an ankle injury. Roger Lewis could be the only Giants wide receiver active last week who will be active this week. As if the injury report wasn't bad enough, New York travels to face the league's best secondary in prime time. The Broncos do allow a lot of completions to tight ends and running backs (11.3 per game, tied for second), but even using 12 still gets you only halfway to an over. How many completions can Manning realistically rack up to Lewis and whoever else lines up at receiver (most likely Tavarres King on the outside)?
Eli Manning has been able to rack up completions this season, averaging over 27 per game in his first five games, but look at the secondaries he's faced -- Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Chargers. Four of those five rank 20th or worse in completion percentage allowed, and the outlier (Chargers) held Manning to a season-low 21 completions. If his numbers reflect his competition, it will be a long night.
Play: Under (-120)
1.5 Passing TDs by Trevor Siemian (Over -120, Under EVEN)
Despite an inexperienced quarterback and an offensive line that received a lot of offseason resources, the Broncos actually throw the ball on 64 percent of their plays at or inside the opponent's 10-yard line. That's tied with the Bengals for seventh-highest in the league. Siemian has rewarded the confidence, throwing six red zone touchdowns without an interception in his first four games (the Broncos had a Week 5 bye). Since last year, Siemian has 16 red zone touchdowns and only one interception.
What about the Giants defense? New York was a stout unit a year ago, allowing 15 passing touchdowns all season (second in the league), but Big Blue has fallen. The Giants have surrendered 10 touchdown passes already this season, tied with the Arizona Cardinals for fifth most. That includes seven red zone touchdowns, also tied for fifth most. All of this is red zone only, and only the Cardinals and Chargers have allowed more touchdown passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield than the Giants (three in five games). The general state of the Giants secondary shouldn't be overlooked here, either. Star safety Landon Collins didn't practice Wednesday with an ankle injury, while starting cornerback Rodgers-Cromartie is not expected to play Sunday with his team suspension.
Play: Over (-120)
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
10/15/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Sunday night's tilt between the New York Giants and Denver Broncos. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bet.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday afternoon.
New York Giants at Denver Broncos (-11.5)
Total: 39
PickCenter public consensus pick: 72 percent on Denver
Phil Steele
Just how good has the Denver rush defense been so far this season? Well, they've held Melvin Gordon, Ezekiel Elliott, LeSean McCoy and Marshawn Lynch to just 95 rushing yards combined. The Broncos have covered in six of their past seven games after a bye week and sit at 16-6 ATS against NFC foes dating back to 2011, including a 42-17 dismantling of the Dallas Cowboys earlier this year. The Giants come in as one of three winless teams after blown fourth-quarter leads in each of their past two matchups. With the Giants' receiving corps decimated due to injuries and Odell Beckham Jr., Brandon Marshall and Sterling Shepard all on the shelf, the Broncos should have no issue getting the cover in this one, despite the elevated line.
ATS pick: Denver
Erin Rynning
It's difficult to envision a scenario bleaker than the Giants on offense. Already with an immobile quarterback, void of solid protection and a blundering running game, they're now depleted at the wide receiver position. It's difficult to figure out how coach Ben McAdoo will move the football against the rock-solid Broncos defense from his menu of options. Look for the Broncos to keep it simple and conservative on offense, much like they did in their last win against the Raiders, understanding it will be difficult for the Giants to score.
Pick: Lean under
Warren Sharp
The Giants are an absolute mess right now due to injuries. Their offense is without their top three wide receivers, and they are a team that ranks 23rd in rushing efficiency. This team will have to completely reinvent itself to see success, but I'm not sure that McAdoo is capable of making that adjustment. New York should go to a much slower, more run-based offense to try and stay out on the field. However, it is the second-most pass heavy offense with the ninth-fastest tempo. The fact that the Giants are so inefficient on offense means their defense (playing without suspended cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie) is out on the field longer.
The problem is the Broncos have the NFL's best run defense in the league, so changing up to a run heavy formula this week certainly would make it difficult to move the ball. It's simply an extremely tough spot for the Giants. The Broncos should be able to lean more on their ninth-rated run offense against the surprisingly bad Giants run defense, which ranks as the fifth-worst unit in football.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay
ATS pick: New York and the under
Prediction: Denver 22, New York Giants 15
Parolin's prop bets
23.5 completions by Eli Manning (Over EVEN, Under -120)
Who is Eli Manning throwing to? Beckham Jr., Marshall and Dwayne Harris were placed on injured reserve, while Sterling Shepard is out with an ankle injury. Roger Lewis could be the only Giants wide receiver active last week who will be active this week. As if the injury report wasn't bad enough, New York travels to face the league's best secondary in prime time. The Broncos do allow a lot of completions to tight ends and running backs (11.3 per game, tied for second), but even using 12 still gets you only halfway to an over. How many completions can Manning realistically rack up to Lewis and whoever else lines up at receiver (most likely Tavarres King on the outside)?
Eli Manning has been able to rack up completions this season, averaging over 27 per game in his first five games, but look at the secondaries he's faced -- Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Chargers. Four of those five rank 20th or worse in completion percentage allowed, and the outlier (Chargers) held Manning to a season-low 21 completions. If his numbers reflect his competition, it will be a long night.
Play: Under (-120)
1.5 Passing TDs by Trevor Siemian (Over -120, Under EVEN)
Despite an inexperienced quarterback and an offensive line that received a lot of offseason resources, the Broncos actually throw the ball on 64 percent of their plays at or inside the opponent's 10-yard line. That's tied with the Bengals for seventh-highest in the league. Siemian has rewarded the confidence, throwing six red zone touchdowns without an interception in his first four games (the Broncos had a Week 5 bye). Since last year, Siemian has 16 red zone touchdowns and only one interception.
What about the Giants defense? New York was a stout unit a year ago, allowing 15 passing touchdowns all season (second in the league), but Big Blue has fallen. The Giants have surrendered 10 touchdown passes already this season, tied with the Arizona Cardinals for fifth most. That includes seven red zone touchdowns, also tied for fifth most. All of this is red zone only, and only the Cardinals and Chargers have allowed more touchdown passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield than the Giants (three in five games). The general state of the Giants secondary shouldn't be overlooked here, either. Star safety Landon Collins didn't practice Wednesday with an ankle injury, while starting cornerback Rodgers-Cromartie is not expected to play Sunday with his team suspension.
Play: Over (-120)
