How to bet Indianapolis-Tennessee
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
10/16/16
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Monday night's tilt between the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday afternoon.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-7.5)
Total: 48.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 63 percent pick Indy
Phil Steele
After a solid 31-10-1 ATS record inside of the AFC South from 2007-2014, the Colts have regressed over the past two seasons with just a 4-7-1 division ATS mark. Many of those recent struggles have come due to the instability at quarterback, as Andrew Luck missed 10 combined games from 2015-2016 and has yet to see the field in 2017. However, the Colts are not the only team with quarterback questions entering Monday. Marcus Mariota missed last weekend's loss to the Miami Dolphins with a hamstring injury. While the Titans' signal-caller could be in the lineup here, siding with either squad is a risky investment in my opinion.
Pick: Pass
Erin Rynning
One key matchup is an improved Colts run defense against Tennessee's potent run game. The Colts finished last year ranked 30th in the NFL allowing 4.7 yards per rush, while holding their own this season, only allowing 3.9. Notably, the front seven looks better than in previous seasons. Mariota is expected to return off his hamstring injury, but will he and the game plan have him hesitant to run?
Pick: Pass
Warren Sharp
Mariota, who missed last week's loss to the Dolphins, returns but questions remain about how much he'll use his legs and how mobile he will be. Against the Houston Texans in Week 4, Mariota posted a 52.5 QB rating and threw two interceptions before his hamstring injury, and was far more dangerous on the ground (four rushes for 9.8 yards per carry and two touchdowns) than in the air. The Colts defense is highly susceptible to tight ends, allowing a 61 percent success rate (fourth worst) and 9.7 yards per attempt (third worst), so Delanie Walker could be in for a strong performance.
On the other side of the ball, the Titans defense has been a massive disappointment. It ranks 26th in defensive efficiency, which is a good thing for the Colts, as they were held to low 9-, 13- and 18-point outputs against good defenses (Rams, Cardinals and Seahawks) but produced 31 and 26 against poor defenses (Browns and 49ers). Jacoby Brissett has looked competent and his mobility has been a plus behind the poor Colts offensive line. As I don't know whether Mariota is being rushed back to simply captain an extremely limited offense so that Matt Cassel doesn't cost the team another game, it's hard to formulate a strong opinion on the result.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay
Pick: Tennessee
Prediction: Tennessee 29, Indianapolis 20
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
10/16/16
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Monday night's tilt between the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday afternoon.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-7.5)
Total: 48.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 63 percent pick Indy
Phil Steele
After a solid 31-10-1 ATS record inside of the AFC South from 2007-2014, the Colts have regressed over the past two seasons with just a 4-7-1 division ATS mark. Many of those recent struggles have come due to the instability at quarterback, as Andrew Luck missed 10 combined games from 2015-2016 and has yet to see the field in 2017. However, the Colts are not the only team with quarterback questions entering Monday. Marcus Mariota missed last weekend's loss to the Miami Dolphins with a hamstring injury. While the Titans' signal-caller could be in the lineup here, siding with either squad is a risky investment in my opinion.
Pick: Pass
Erin Rynning
One key matchup is an improved Colts run defense against Tennessee's potent run game. The Colts finished last year ranked 30th in the NFL allowing 4.7 yards per rush, while holding their own this season, only allowing 3.9. Notably, the front seven looks better than in previous seasons. Mariota is expected to return off his hamstring injury, but will he and the game plan have him hesitant to run?
Pick: Pass
Warren Sharp
Mariota, who missed last week's loss to the Dolphins, returns but questions remain about how much he'll use his legs and how mobile he will be. Against the Houston Texans in Week 4, Mariota posted a 52.5 QB rating and threw two interceptions before his hamstring injury, and was far more dangerous on the ground (four rushes for 9.8 yards per carry and two touchdowns) than in the air. The Colts defense is highly susceptible to tight ends, allowing a 61 percent success rate (fourth worst) and 9.7 yards per attempt (third worst), so Delanie Walker could be in for a strong performance.
On the other side of the ball, the Titans defense has been a massive disappointment. It ranks 26th in defensive efficiency, which is a good thing for the Colts, as they were held to low 9-, 13- and 18-point outputs against good defenses (Rams, Cardinals and Seahawks) but produced 31 and 26 against poor defenses (Browns and 49ers). Jacoby Brissett has looked competent and his mobility has been a plus behind the poor Colts offensive line. As I don't know whether Mariota is being rushed back to simply captain an extremely limited offense so that Matt Cassel doesn't cost the team another game, it's hard to formulate a strong opinion on the result.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay
Pick: Tennessee
Prediction: Tennessee 29, Indianapolis 20
