CFB betting look for Week 8: Plenty riding on Michigan-PSU
Will Harris
ESPN INSIDER
10/16/17
Our college football look ahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season. In Week 8, we explain why the big clash with Michigan is uncharted territory for Penn State's James Franklin, identify the MAC favorite and examine some factors that cause teams to play tired football.
Portfolio checkup
Which teams we're buying and selling and why.
Buy
Toledo Rockets
Toledo pulled to 2-4 ATS with a comfortable road win at Central Michigan on Saturday, and the 2017 edition of one of the MAC's top programs is just now hitting its stride. The Rockets did lose top wideout Cody Thompson to a broken leg earlier this month, but tailback Terry Swanson is back from injury.
Too many moving pieces on a banged-up offensive line have hampered the offense early in the season, but now the front is starting to jell and move people off the ball. This unit is efficient, doesn't turn the ball over and is led by the MAC's best quarterback in Logan Woodside. The defense is also showing major recent improvement and is starting to develop a fierce attitude.
Toledo played for the 2016 division crown in the final week of Jason Candle's debut season as coach but couldn't handle a great Western Michigan team on the road. Candle, who, like fellow thirtysomething predecessor Matt Campbell, is a product of Larry Kehres' Mount Union program, looks like an excellent hire thus far. His maturing outfit is the MAC's best team this year and is still showing the winning habits that made Toledo successful under Campbell. With contenders NIU and WMU on the home schedule, it's safe to say the road to the West title goes through the Glass Bowl.
Sell
Kentucky Wildcats
More than one mediocre team might go 8-4 in the worst SEC of the past half-century, but that won't make them good teams. Kentucky, sitting at 5-1 and alone in second place of the SEC East, is one such candidate. The Wildcats are also a candidate to lose six straight to close the year and join the line of SEC schools pondering a coaching change.
Mark Stoops' Cats are playing better defense this year with a veteran lineup, but the same endless parade of self-inflicted errors, fundamental breakdowns and game management gaffes is still on constant display in year five. Stoops has raised money, recruited top talent and gotten Big Blue Nation excited, but he has yet to deliver an SEC victory over a team that finished with a winning league record.
The Kentucky renaissance just isn't happening, and whether the 2017 record is a bit better or not, last year's 7-6 "breakthrough" is basically the ceiling.
Slate standout
A game we'll be studying closely this week and what we're looking for.
Michigan Wolverines (+10) at Penn State Nittany Lions
One of the narratives in this matchup will be that Michigan provides the first real test for an improved Penn State offensive line, one that isn't long removed from being considered one of the Big Ten's worst. The Lions' offensive skill is beyond question, but can the line hold up versus the Wolverines' ferocious front seven?
A bigger narrative is that this is also the first test of its kind for fourth-year Lions coach James Franklin. Many teams perform better as the overlooked underdog when expectations and pressure are low, and it's easy to feel slighted and keep chips firmly on shoulders in that case. Heavy is the favorite's crown, though, and few teams learn to wear it without some trial and error.
Franklin has led a team onto the field versus a ranked opponent 18 times, but never before as a favorite. It's even his first time coaching a regular-season matchup in which both teams are ranked. Franklin is 2-14 straight up and 6-10 versus the number in his previous regular-season outings versus ranked teams. Backing Penn State is not just asking Franklin to get on top of double digits against a tough team but to do it in his very first turn in this role on this stage.
Handicapper's toolbox
A different concept every Monday, and how to apply it on Saturday.
"Freshness" is a thing.
Even good defenses play poorly when they tire, and being worn out renders bad ones hopeless. Always be aware of whether the schedule helps or hinders freshness, the mental and physical toll of each game and the running "pitch count."
Only a couple of teams have faced more plays than Connecticut this year. The Huskies' opponents are running an average of 85 plays per game on this beleaguered defense, and that number is close to 90 the past few games. This bunch already lost its open date for good when the AAC rescheduled several games in the wake of Hurricane Irma and has now not only played six straight but endured a rare Sunday-Saturday-Friday stretch that required three games in 12 days.
Up next is a Tulsa team that ranked first and third nationally in plays run in Philip Montgomery's first two seasons, followed by three more opponents that attempt to use pace as a weapon. A defense that already ranks dead last in the NCAA in first downs allowed and passing yards and touchdowns allowed can't get off the field because it's also bottom-five in third-down stops and takeaways. This unit is already one of the nation's worst defenses, and the results could really be gruesome if it wears down badly in the second half of the season.<,/p>
Chalk Bits
Army, which hosts Temple on Saturday, got its breakthrough 2016 underway with an upset of the Owls in the opener. That game ended a six-game run of straight-up and ATS dominance for TU, which had only let the Knights come within 13 points once in that span. The Knights, notorious for underachieving as chalk, are giving weight to an FBS team for the fifth time this season and are 1-4 ATS so far.
TCU has beaten league doormat Kansas each year since joining the Big 12, but something about the Frogs brings out the best in the downtrodden Jayhawks. The average margin of victory is just a touchdown, and just once has TCU scored more than 27 points.
BYU and Florida State have been the season's biggest money-burners thus far -- they are the only two teams yet to cover a game. Georgia Tech, Buffalo, UCF and Utah are the four remaining teams with unblemished records at the window.
Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech have only been Conference USA league-mates since 2013, but this is a heated regional rivalry of the 1980s and '90s that was renewed back in 2010 and has seen six meetings in the seven years since. Underdogs have covered four of the six, including a pair of Southern Miss upsets the past two years, and bettors would be wise to know the story of the bad blood in those games before moving on this year's tilt.
The teams met to close the 2015 regular season with the West division on the line, and Southern Miss delivered a 58-24 road blowout. Last year, Tech entered the game in Hattiesburg with an 8-3 record, the West division already clinched and jawing at Southern players on social media about running up the score in retaliation for the 2016 blowout on a scuffling Eagles team that had lost three straight and five of six. Southern Miss, at 5-6, needed the win to earn a bowl berth in Jay Hopson's first year and responded with a physical beat-down of the visiting Bulldogs that wasn't nearly as close as the 39-24 final.
Will Harris
ESPN INSIDER
10/16/17
Our college football look ahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season. In Week 8, we explain why the big clash with Michigan is uncharted territory for Penn State's James Franklin, identify the MAC favorite and examine some factors that cause teams to play tired football.
Portfolio checkup
Which teams we're buying and selling and why.
Buy
Toledo Rockets
Toledo pulled to 2-4 ATS with a comfortable road win at Central Michigan on Saturday, and the 2017 edition of one of the MAC's top programs is just now hitting its stride. The Rockets did lose top wideout Cody Thompson to a broken leg earlier this month, but tailback Terry Swanson is back from injury.
Too many moving pieces on a banged-up offensive line have hampered the offense early in the season, but now the front is starting to jell and move people off the ball. This unit is efficient, doesn't turn the ball over and is led by the MAC's best quarterback in Logan Woodside. The defense is also showing major recent improvement and is starting to develop a fierce attitude.
Toledo played for the 2016 division crown in the final week of Jason Candle's debut season as coach but couldn't handle a great Western Michigan team on the road. Candle, who, like fellow thirtysomething predecessor Matt Campbell, is a product of Larry Kehres' Mount Union program, looks like an excellent hire thus far. His maturing outfit is the MAC's best team this year and is still showing the winning habits that made Toledo successful under Campbell. With contenders NIU and WMU on the home schedule, it's safe to say the road to the West title goes through the Glass Bowl.
Sell
Kentucky Wildcats
More than one mediocre team might go 8-4 in the worst SEC of the past half-century, but that won't make them good teams. Kentucky, sitting at 5-1 and alone in second place of the SEC East, is one such candidate. The Wildcats are also a candidate to lose six straight to close the year and join the line of SEC schools pondering a coaching change.
Mark Stoops' Cats are playing better defense this year with a veteran lineup, but the same endless parade of self-inflicted errors, fundamental breakdowns and game management gaffes is still on constant display in year five. Stoops has raised money, recruited top talent and gotten Big Blue Nation excited, but he has yet to deliver an SEC victory over a team that finished with a winning league record.
The Kentucky renaissance just isn't happening, and whether the 2017 record is a bit better or not, last year's 7-6 "breakthrough" is basically the ceiling.
Slate standout
A game we'll be studying closely this week and what we're looking for.
Michigan Wolverines (+10) at Penn State Nittany Lions
One of the narratives in this matchup will be that Michigan provides the first real test for an improved Penn State offensive line, one that isn't long removed from being considered one of the Big Ten's worst. The Lions' offensive skill is beyond question, but can the line hold up versus the Wolverines' ferocious front seven?
A bigger narrative is that this is also the first test of its kind for fourth-year Lions coach James Franklin. Many teams perform better as the overlooked underdog when expectations and pressure are low, and it's easy to feel slighted and keep chips firmly on shoulders in that case. Heavy is the favorite's crown, though, and few teams learn to wear it without some trial and error.
Franklin has led a team onto the field versus a ranked opponent 18 times, but never before as a favorite. It's even his first time coaching a regular-season matchup in which both teams are ranked. Franklin is 2-14 straight up and 6-10 versus the number in his previous regular-season outings versus ranked teams. Backing Penn State is not just asking Franklin to get on top of double digits against a tough team but to do it in his very first turn in this role on this stage.
Handicapper's toolbox
A different concept every Monday, and how to apply it on Saturday.
"Freshness" is a thing.
Even good defenses play poorly when they tire, and being worn out renders bad ones hopeless. Always be aware of whether the schedule helps or hinders freshness, the mental and physical toll of each game and the running "pitch count."
Only a couple of teams have faced more plays than Connecticut this year. The Huskies' opponents are running an average of 85 plays per game on this beleaguered defense, and that number is close to 90 the past few games. This bunch already lost its open date for good when the AAC rescheduled several games in the wake of Hurricane Irma and has now not only played six straight but endured a rare Sunday-Saturday-Friday stretch that required three games in 12 days.
Up next is a Tulsa team that ranked first and third nationally in plays run in Philip Montgomery's first two seasons, followed by three more opponents that attempt to use pace as a weapon. A defense that already ranks dead last in the NCAA in first downs allowed and passing yards and touchdowns allowed can't get off the field because it's also bottom-five in third-down stops and takeaways. This unit is already one of the nation's worst defenses, and the results could really be gruesome if it wears down badly in the second half of the season.<,/p>
Chalk Bits
Army, which hosts Temple on Saturday, got its breakthrough 2016 underway with an upset of the Owls in the opener. That game ended a six-game run of straight-up and ATS dominance for TU, which had only let the Knights come within 13 points once in that span. The Knights, notorious for underachieving as chalk, are giving weight to an FBS team for the fifth time this season and are 1-4 ATS so far.
TCU has beaten league doormat Kansas each year since joining the Big 12, but something about the Frogs brings out the best in the downtrodden Jayhawks. The average margin of victory is just a touchdown, and just once has TCU scored more than 27 points.
BYU and Florida State have been the season's biggest money-burners thus far -- they are the only two teams yet to cover a game. Georgia Tech, Buffalo, UCF and Utah are the four remaining teams with unblemished records at the window.
Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech have only been Conference USA league-mates since 2013, but this is a heated regional rivalry of the 1980s and '90s that was renewed back in 2010 and has seen six meetings in the seven years since. Underdogs have covered four of the six, including a pair of Southern Miss upsets the past two years, and bettors would be wise to know the story of the bad blood in those games before moving on this year's tilt.
The teams met to close the 2015 regular season with the West division on the line, and Southern Miss delivered a 58-24 road blowout. Last year, Tech entered the game in Hattiesburg with an 8-3 record, the West division already clinched and jawing at Southern players on social media about running up the score in retaliation for the 2016 blowout on a scuffling Eagles team that had lost three straight and five of six. Southern Miss, at 5-6, needed the win to earn a bowl berth in Jay Hopson's first year and responded with a physical beat-down of the visiting Bulldogs that wasn't nearly as close as the 39-24 final.
