Thursday 10/19/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Post Bonus Plays / requests / comments/ trends and concerns here.
 

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Soccer

Europa League

1pm ET

Crvena Zvezda v Arsenal

Referee: Benoit Bastien

Last Head-to-Heads at Crvena Zvezda:
1-0 (Crvena Zvezda win)

Recent Form:
Crvena Zvezda: 5-1
Arsenal: 4-1-1

KEY STAT: Arsenal’s two group games have featured ten goals

EXPERT VERDICT: Rotating their squad hasn’t stopped Arsenal winning their two opening Europa League outings and backing the Gunners to come out on top in an open games looks sensible. Arsene Wenger's reserves have had no problem finding the net in this competition, scoring seven goals in those matches, but have looked far from secure at the back.

RECOMMENDATION: Arsenal to win 3-1 (1)
 

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Soccer

Europa League

3:05pm ET

Everton v Lyon

Referee: Bas Nijhuis

Last Head-to-Heads at Everton:
none

Recent Form:
Everton: 2-2-2
Lyon: 1-1-4

KEY STAT: Lyon are averaging two goals per game

EXPERT VERDICT: Everton have yet to see a return on their significant summer investment and a number of underwhelming performances have heaped the pressure on Ronald Koeman. Life doesn’t look set to get any easier as Lyon bounced back from their recent poor run by seeing off Monaco 3-2 last time out and the classy French raiders look a nice price to win at Goodison Park.

RECOMMENDATION: Lyon (2)
 

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Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #8 - BELMONT PARK - 4:46 PM EASTERN POST
7.0 FURLONGS TURF FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $100,000.00 OPTIONAL CLAIMING $90,000.00 PURSE

#1 PORTMAGEE
#3 ALL IN FUN
#8 RUMBLE DOLL
#7 DISCREET SENORITA

#1 PORTMAGEE is the overall speed leader in this field sprinting at today's "specialized distance" of 7.0 furlongs on the turf, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four of her last five outings, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in her 4th and 5th races back. Jockey Irad Ortiz and Trainer Chris Clement send her to the post ... they've hit the board with 57% of their entries saddled as a team to date. #3 ALL IN FUN takes a class drop (-4), and goes to the post with the skills of Jockey Javier Castellano in her irons ... Castellano has been in her irons on 10 previous occasions, hitting the board in 7 of those rides, winning four times, and is back today for his 11th ride.
 

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The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $5500 Class Rating: 78

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 1 DASHIN WITH CHROME 5/1

# 6 BJS CARTEL CASH 4/1

# 7 CRAWFISH WAGON 5/1

DASHIN WITH CHROME is the best wager in this race. Has some encouraging angles which make this horse a bet. Has been consistently running well recently. Has a sharp shot in here if you like back class. BJS CARTEL CASH - Always good to invest in a handler with this kind of solid win percentage - 18 percent - at this distance & surface. Earned a very good Equibase Speed Figure last time out. CRAWFISH WAGON - Has been racing solidly in races of this distance, going 3 for 13 under similar conditions. Looks respectable to be on the front end at the first call.
 

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes

Finger Lakes - Race 3

EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA * PICK 3 (50 Cent Minimum: Races 3-4-5) * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 3-4)


Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $9,000 • Post: 2:08P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 19 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Lone Trailer. LAUGH LOVE LIVE is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SCORECARD HARRY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. LAUGH LOVE LIVE: Horse ha s a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. BORROWED DREAMS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distanc e/surface. GUYANA CAT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30.
4
SCORECARD HARRY
5/1

5/1
2
LAUGH LOVE LIVE
7/2

6/1
5
BORROWED DREAMS
2/1

7/1
1
GUYANA CAT
5/2

7/1
 

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The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Golden Gate Fields - Race #7 - Post: 3:50pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating: 3

#9 CLARA'S DREAM (ML=5/1)
#2 KNOLL (ML=2/1)
#4 WARRENS LIL MARGIE (ML=7/2)


CLARA'S DREAM - This filly has 'tactical' speed, Antongeorgi will use this advantage by laying in perfect position behind the leaders, and getting first run on the leaders. KNOLL - I like that most recent effort on October 9th at Fresno where she finished first. Just see her latest speed rating, 78. That one looks good in this group. WARRENS LIL MARGIE - The ROI when Velasco and Morey team up is fantastic. Another way to judge class is earnings per race. This racer has the highest in the bunch. I think she'll be close at the finish line.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 AMERICAN RHIANNON (ML=5/2),

AMERICAN RHIANNON - This horse likes to be there at the wire, but doesn't usually win. Don't put in the top spot. This animal hasn't had even a single workout after running so well on Sep 29th. Finished second in her most recent effort with a substandard speed figure. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this bunch.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#9 CLARA'S DREAM to win at post-time odds of 4/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,9] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[2,4,9] with [2,4,9] with [2,3,4,8,9] with [2,3,4,8,9] Total Cost: $36

SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:
Skip
 

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The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park West

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 80

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 19 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 7 EQUITY 3/1

# 4 HARASAN 5/2

# 2 SHOT JAK 8/1

EQUITY looks like the wager in here. The average Equibase class figure alone makes this entrant a solid contender. With a solid 67 average Equibase Speed Fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. This gelding with Batista in the saddle makes him a contender. HARASAN - Shows evidence of the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 64 Equibase speed fig which is one of the strongest in this group. Trainer has strong win rate (20 percent) at this distance and surface. SHOT JAK - Will most likely compete soundly in the early pace contest which bodes well with this field. Has quite good Equibase speed figs and has to be considered for a wager for this event.
 

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The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Penn National - Race #8 - Post: 9:10pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 70

Rating: 4

#1 NANCY PANTS (ML=5/2)


NANCY PANTS - Stay with this horse. Coming off the pace, I think she'll be in a wonderful spot to crush them in the stretch. Multiple wins over the surface right here at Penn National. Maybe, another trip to the winner's circle right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 QUINNETTE (ML=3/1), #6 LUMINOUS CIELO (ML=7/2), #4 MIDNIGHT LADY (ML=4/1),

QUINNETTE - This entrant will most likely be near the back of the pack as this bunch crosses the finish line. LUMINOUS CIELO - This was a fit horse, but now this one hasn't been doing anything in the morning. Have to be leery of this one. MIDNIGHT LADY - This horse likes to be on the board, but doesn't usually finish first. Keep out of the top spot. When looking at today's class figure, she will have to notch a better speed fig than last time around the track to battle in this dirt route.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - NANCY PANTS - This horse is meeting a much easier field than in the last affair on May 18th. Worth a prime wager today.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#1 NANCY PANTS is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
1 with [4,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
 

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park

Remington Park - Race 9

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum)


Maiden Claiming $7,500 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3-5 • CR: 44 • Purse: $9,900 • Post: 10:45
FOR MAIDEN, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEAR OLDS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500. OKLAHOMA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Lone Stalker. MARTHA SUE is the Lone Stalker of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * RODEO ROSIE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Ratin g. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. COTTONMOUTH BROWN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a lay off. CHENERY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
10
RODEO ROSIE
3/1

9/2
4
COTTONMOUTH BROWN
5/2

5/1
3
CHENERY
7/2

6/1
 

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Dodgers @ Cubs
Dodgers are 7-3 vs Chicago this season, 3-1 in this series; they shut Cubs out in 3 of the 7 wins. Home team won eight of ten series games (under 8-2).

Kershaw is 2-0, 3.86 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five outings. Dodgers are 11-2 in his last 13 road starts. He is 0-0, 5.79 in two starts against the Cubs this season, is 5-7, 4.17 in 20 career playoff games (16 starts).

Quintana is 0-0, 4.11 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five starts. Cubs are 7-0 in his last seven home starts. He is 0-0, 1.59 in three career playoff games (2 starts), he allowed two runs in five IP in his only ’17 start against the Dodgers.

LA DODGERS (110 - 58) at CHICAGO CUBS (95 - 75) - 9:05 PM

ALEX WOOD (L) vs. JAKE ARRIETA (R)

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History

LA DODGERS is 7-2 (+5.3 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
7 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+6.1 Units)

ALEX WOOD vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
WOOD is 1-2 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.24 and a WHIP of 1.560.
His team's record is 1-4 (-3.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-1. (+2.8 units)

JAKE ARRIETA vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
ARRIETA is 1-4 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.25 and a WHIP of 1.028.
His team's record is 1-5 (-5.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-2. (+1.6 units)


LA DODGERS @ CHI CUBS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers


LA DODGERS @ CHI CUBS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
 

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MLB Betting Picks & Tips

Los Angeles (-160) at Chicago

Per usual, we don’t have a morning total for a game at Wrigley Field. This is a fascinating handicap. Jose Quintana takes the mound for the Cubs as they look to avoid elimination for the second straight day. The Dodgers will respond with ace Clayton Kershaw. I’ve talked at length about the perception of Playoff Clayton Kershaw. With him opening this high of a favorite in an elimination game, it will be very interesting to see how the betting market approaches this game.

Thus far, the movement has been on the Dodgers. BetOnline opened this number around -146 and it is up to -155 at time of writing. 5Dimes opened -150 and is up to -158. Pinnacle went up over -160 and has since come back down a couple of cents. There is a lot going on with this game and there are a lot of Dodger-centric storylines to consider.

I’ve talked about this before, but the Dodgers have one goal. This team was built for one reason. Large amounts of money were poured into this roster to bring a World Series to Los Angeles. The Dodgers have made the playoffs in six straight seasons and don’t even have an NL pennant to show for it. Every contending team has the goal of winning the World Series, but we all know that it’s different with the Dodgers and has been for a while now.

Even though Kershaw is the best pitcher on the planet (please, @ me), his career numbers in the postseason don’t support it. In 100.1 innings of work, Kershaw has a 4.57 ERA with a 3.68 FIP and a 3.26 xFIP. Nobody cares that he has a 117/31 K/BB ratio because he has allowed 15 HR and has given up 55 runs. It’s sad that baseball and pro sports are set up in a way that throwing 1,935 elite innings in the regular season means nothing to some people because of Kershaw’s playoff struggles, but that’s just the way that it is.

Kershaw worked five innings and allowed two runs on four hits in Game 1. Jose Quintana basically matched him, but the Dodgers bullpen won the day and the Cubs bullpen lost the day. For me, this is all mental for Kershaw and it’s hard for me to handicap that. I know what he’s capable of. Everybody does. I cannot, in good conscience, go against that upside when he’s plenty capable of shoving with seven shutout to pitch the team to the World Series.

Jose Quintana has been terrific. I can’t argue with that. Quintana rocked a 3.74 ERA with a 3.25 FIP and a 3.24 xFIP in his 84.1 innings of work with the Cubs after he was traded from the South Side to the North Side. In 11.1 playoff innings, Quintana has allowed three runs, two earned, on just five hits with an 11/4 K/BB ratio. He’s a good pitcher to go up against Kershaw. What surprises me, and I mentioned this prior to Game 1, is that this is Jose Quintana’s first playoff experience with such a terrific career, but the White Sox didn’t give him much support. Quintana allowed two runs on just two hits with four strikeouts and a couple walks in Game 1.

The Cubs bullpen nailed one down in Game 4 to stay alive, which was good to see, but I’m not sure that there will be any carryover effect. The bigger carryover effect is that Wade Davis had to get a six-out save and throw 48 pitches in the process. It was a giant struggle for him with three walks and a home run allowed to Justin Turner. As he has throughout the playoffs, Dave Roberts limited pitch counts for most of his relievers and didn’t have to use Kenley Jansen.

The Dodgers have the upper hand here again, especially in a bullpen capacity. If you truly believe that Quintana and Kershaw go pitch-for-pitch again, then laying -160 on a bullpen game isn’t really +EV, even with how much better the Dodgers pen is. If you think Kershaw can outpitch Quintana and the Dodgers can outhit the Cubs, a Cubs team that has scored just seven runs in four games in this series, then the -160 is reasonable with the Dodgers’ bullpen advantage as a contributing factor, but not the sole justification.
 

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Umpire Assignment

911 Los Angeles Dodgers -163 Over 7 -115
912 Chicago Cubs +153 Under 7 -105
Bill Welke 2017: 17-14, 18-12 o/u (2016: 17-10, 18-7 o/u)
Over is 39-19-3 in Welkes last 61 games behind home plate.
Over is 6-0 in Welkes last 6 Cubs games behind home plate.
Over is 12-4-1 in Welkes last 17 Dodgers games behind home plate.
Home team is 4-1 in Welkes last 5 games behind home plate.
 

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NBA Knowledge

Not a lot to go on for the first 7-10 days, until these teams get some games under their belts. I’ll give you what relevant information I have:

Bulls won nine of last ten games with Toronto (10-0 vs spread), losing last meeting in OT. Over is 9-1 in last ten series games. Chicago won three of last four visits here, with wins by 2-2-13 points. This is the season opener for both clubs.

Carmelo Anthony sees his old team on Opening Night. Knicks lost six of last eight games with Oklahoma City- they’re 1-3 in last four visits here (1-3 vs spread), losing by 12-11-29 points. Under is 4-2 in last six series games. This is the season opener for both sides.

Clippers won nine of last ten games with the Lakers (under 8-2), though Lakers are 6-3 vs spread in last nine meetings. This is season opener for both teams.

CHICAGO (0 - 0) at TORONTO (0 - 0) - 10/19/2017, 7:35 PM

Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 257-313 ATS (-87.3 Units) in the first half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 7-0 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 6-1 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

NEW YORK (0 - 0) at OKLAHOMA CITY (0 - 0) - 10/19/2017, 8:05 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-1 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

LA CLIPPERS (0 - 0) at LA LAKERS (0 - 0) - 10/19/2017, 10:35 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 5-3 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 7-1 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

CHICAGO @ TORONTO
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Toronto's last 10 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago

CHICAGO @ TORONTO
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Toronto's last 10 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago

NEW YORK @ OKLAHOMA CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New York's last 9 games
New York is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against New York
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Oklahoma City's last 9 games

NEW YORK @ OKLAHOMA CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New York's last 9 games
New York is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against New York
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Oklahoma City's last 9 games

LA CLIPPERS @ LA LAKERS
LA Clippers is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Clippers's last 11 games when playing LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Lakers's last 11 games when playing LA Clippers

LA CLIPPERS @ LA LAKERS
LA Clippers is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Clippers's last 11 games when playing LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Lakers's last 11 games when playing LA Clippers
 

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StatFox Super Situations

CHICAGO at TORONTO

Play Over - All teams where the first half total is greater than 100 marginal winning team from last season (51% to 60%) playing a team who had a losing record 46-19 over the last 5 seasons. ( 70.8% | 25.1 units )

NEW YORK at OKLAHOMA CITY
Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 good ball handling team from last season - committed <=14 turnovers/game, in non-conference games 55-25 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.8% | 27.5 units )
 

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NBA Pick ‘n Roll: Thursday’s Picks and Analysis
Yesterday’s picks: 1-1
Season record: 1-3

New York Knicks at Oklahoma City Thunder (-12, 214)

Carmelo Anthony’s up-and-down ride in New York ended this summer when the Knicks traded their one-time franchise player to Oklahoma City for Enes Kanter and Doug McDermott.

We wonder how well Anthony, Russell Westbrook and Paul George will share the ball. Each member of the new fab trio is used to having the ball and – in Anthony’s case in particular – holding the ball while sizing up the opponent guarding them. We’re guessing the Thunder offense will have its missteps early on while George and Anthony learn how to play with Westbrook.

The Knicks might roll out the worst defensive starting five in the league with rookie guard Frank Ntilikina as possibly their best defender. The bigger worry is who’s going to score points for this team? It looks like Tim Hardaway Jr. is going to be the No. 2 option on offense behind Kristaps Porzingis.

Pick: Under 214

Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers (+5, 218.5)

According to Purple and Gold supporters, the Lakers are going to make the playoffs, Lonzo Ball is going to win MVP, Kyle Kuzma is going to win Rookie of the Year and Magic Johnson is going to win Executive of the Year next season after he gets LeBron James and Paul George to sign with the Lakers in the summer of 2018.

We hate to burst the La-La Land bubble but we’d take the "No" on each of those outcomes if they were prop bets.

The Clippers have revamped their roster after losing point guard Chris Paul in the offseason. This is now Blake Griffin’s team, and while there is not as many elite players on the roster with Paul gone, the overall team depth has unquestionably improved.

Pick: Clippers -5

Totals Streaks

*The Under went 8-2-1 in the Knicks’ final 11 regular season games last season.
*The Under is 9-2 the last 11 times the Clippers and Lakers have played each other.

Injury To Note

The Bulls are missing rotation forwards Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis after there was an altercation between the teammates during practice on Tuesday. Portis punched Mirotic in the face and was suspended eight games by the team. Mirotic suffered facial fractures from the punch and is expected to miss four to six weeks.

Also, new Lakers shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is suspended for the first two games of the season. Expect Jordan Clarkson to start in his place.

Top Trends

*The Bulls might as well take the 905 area code because they’ve owned Toronto. The Bulls are 12-0 against the spread and 11-1 straight up in their last 12 games against the Raptors.
*The Lakers went 6-1 ATS over their final seven games last season.

Consensus

Consensus players love the Thunder to cover in their home opener against the Knicks. Around 75 percent of people are backing OKC to cover the double-digit spread.
 

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Clippers, Lakers clash Thursday

Lonzo Ball and the Lakers take on the crosstown rival Clippers on Thursday night.

When Chris Paul first became a Clipper in the summer of 2011, his arrival signaled a new era of Los Angeles basketball, one that would come to be known as "Lob City." And while the next few years were marked by playoff disappointments to difficult Western Conference competition, it easily marked the most successful stretch in franchise history. But Paul's time with the organization has come to an end, after the team traded him to Houston for a long list of role players and a draft pick. The team now belongs to PF Blake Griffin, and will need him to step up after years of injuries and off-the-court distractions. It's also a new era for the Clippers' crosstown rival, as the Lakers welcome rookie PG Lonzo Ball to town. The second overall pick in this past summer's draft, Ball brings a combination of size, deadly shooting and flashy passing to the point guard position, and all eyes will be on his regular season debut after impressive runs in Summer League and the preseason. For the Lakers, newly acquired SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will begin a two-game suspension to start the season and C Andrew Bogut is out for the opener with a groin injury. PF Julius Randle is listed as probable, as is Ball. For the Clippers, Houston transplants PG Patrick Beverley and SF Sam Dekker are questionable to play, as is second round draft pick SG Sindarius Thornwell.

For the Clippers, the offense that was once dictated entirely through Paul will now shift to something in which the ball will move more freely between all five players. The player through which it will run most frequently could be Griffin, who has shown an ability to make plays from the forward position throughout his career. He's an excellent passer, and has enough of a jumper to draw defenders on the perimeter. SF Danilo Gallinari, who arrived in LA via a three-team trade, brings the kind of scoring presence at the three-spot that Clippers fans begged for during Paul's time in the city. He'll help make up for some of the perimeter shooting lost in the departures of JJ Redick and Jamal Crawford. So will SG Lou Williams, who had the best season of his career last year as both a Laker and a Rocket. He'll look to fill the Crawford role for the Clips. Beverley is one of the league's most aggressive perimeter defenders, and an underrated offensive player. Also at point guard are Austin Rivers and Milos Teodosic, the latter of whom enters the league at age 30 with some of the flashiest passes you'll ever see. Star C DeAndre Jordan has already been the beneficiary of several alley-oops from him in the preseason.

On the other side of town—on the same side, actually, as both teams play in Staples Center—Ball figures to be running the show from now on in Luke Walton's offense. There's been much speculation regarding whether his unconventional but heretofore deadly jumpshot will translate to the NBA, and that will be something to watch closely in his regular season debut. Less of a concern is his passing, which figures to dazzle night in and night out. But there is actually, for a certain sect of NBA nerd, another Laker rookie whose debut is even more anticipated. That would be PF Kyle Kuzma, a mid-draft pick out of Utah who has been thrilling in Summer League and the preseason. He has looked explosive and surprisingly accurate from the outside. While D'Angelo Russell has left town, two shockingly young members of the Lakers core remain: 22-year-old PF Julius Randle and 20-year-old SF Brandon Ingram. Ingram is of particular interest—he was always expected to be something of a project in his early years in the league, but he showed growth in the second half of last season. Playing with Ball could help him find easier scoring opportunities. C Brook Lopez comes to LA via the trade that sent Russell to Brooklyn, and figures to get plenty of touches as one of the few veterans on this team that has two legs to stand on.
 

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Chiefs (5-1) @ Raiders (2-4) — Oakland lost its last four games, scoring 6 TD’s on last 43 drives; they’re -3 in turnovers his year, with zero INT’s- they have only one takeaway in last three games. Raiders lost to Ravens/Chargers at home last two weeks. Carr returned vs Chargers, but they ran lot of shorter pass patterns to lessen chances he gets hit on his broken back. Kansas City was held to 251 yards in home loss to Steelers Sunday, its first loss in six games. KC is 3-o on road (over 3-0), scoring ppg (12 TD’s on 33 drives); Chiefs won last five series games (four by 8+ points), winning 34-20/26-10 in last two visits to Oakland. Three of last four Raider games stayed under the total. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 7-5 vs spread.

KANSAS CITY (5 - 1) at OAKLAND (2 - 4) - 10/19/2017, 8:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 49-80 ATS (-39.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 74-103 ATS (-39.3 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 74-103 ATS (-39.3 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 58-83 ATS (-33.3 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OAKLAND is 25-49 ATS (-28.9 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 74-103 ATS (-39.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 4-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Oakland's last 8 games at home
Oakland is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home


StatFox Super Situations

KANSAS CITY at OAKLAND
Play Against - Favorites (KANSAS CITY) good rushing team - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game 92-47 since 1997. ( 66.2% | 40.3 units )
 

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Chiefs, Raiders clash on Thursday Night

The Raiders will be hoping to deal the Chiefs their second consecutive loss when the teams meet on Thursday.

Kansas City was undefeated heading into a home matchup with Pittsburgh last week, which probably seemed like it would result in the Chiefs moving to 6-0 on the season. The Steelers ended up winning that game, though. Pittsburgh won 19-13 as a three-point favorite in that game, but the Chiefs have a pretty good chance to get back on track here. They do have to deal with flying to California, but they’re facing a Raiders team that has wildly underperformed this season. Oakland should, however, get up for this game on Thursday. It’s a nationally televised matchup and the Raiders absolutely have to win this one if they want to make it to the postseason. If they fall to 2-5 then they can pretty much kiss the season goodbye. One thing that works in the Chiefs favor in this game is the fact that they are a ridiculous 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in their past five meetings with the Raiders. They’re also 17-8 SU (18-7 ATS) when going on the road to face Oakland since 1997. One trend that favors the Chiefs is the fact that they are 6-0 ATS in road games after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better under head coach Andy Reid. Favoring the Raiders, however, is the fact that the Raiders are 18-12 ATS against conference opponents under Jack Del Rio.

The Chiefs are coming off of a poor performance against the Steelers last week, but they’ll be looking forward to facing a lousy Raiders defense in this one. QB Alex Smith (1,637 yards, 12 TD, 0 INT) is the guy that will benefit the most from facing Oakland’s secondary here. Smith was just 19-of-34 for 246 yards and a touchdown against Pittsburgh last week, and that was his worst game of the season. That says a lot about the type of year the quarterback is having, as he didn’t throw a single pick and still will be disappointed with how he played. Look for him to throw for around 300 yards with two or more touchdowns here. And when he does go to the air, it’ll be WR Tyreek Hill (30 rec, 390 yards, 2 TD) and TE Travis Kelce (33 rec, 390 yards, 2 TD) that he’ll be throwing to. As for the running game, RB Kareem Hunt (630 yards, 4 TD) should also have his way here. Hunt has been one of the best rushers in the league thus far, and he has a legitimate shot to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. It’s hard to imagine this Oakland defense really doing much to stop him. On defense, the Chiefs will need to make sure they’re able to defend the pass, though. Oakland likes to air it out as much as any other team in the league.

The Raiders can really use a win on Thursday, but they’ll need QB Derek Carr (924 yards, 8 TD, 4 INT) to be a lot better than he was last week. Against the Chargers, Carr threw for only 171 yards with one touchdown and two picks. If he is going to turn the ball over multiple times then Oakland is going to find it very tough to start winning games. That is especially true against this Kansas City defense, as the Chiefs have a ball-hawking secondary. Carr also needs to do a better job of getting WR Amari Cooper (18 rec, 146 yards, 1 TD) involved. Cooper looked like a budding superstar in his first two years in the league, but he has been absolutely miserable as of late. That needs to change if the Raiders are going to get back on track, and RB Marshawn Lynch (257 yards, 2 TD) will also need to be a lot better moving forward. Lynch has not given the Raiders the spark in the running game that they expected. That is an aspect of this offense that must be figured out soon. And on defense, the Raiders are going to need to defend in all levels on Thursday.
 

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Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Chiefs at Raiders

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+3, 46.5)

The Oakland Raiders were a trendy preseason choice to wind up in the conference championship game, but they are in desperate need of a victory to keep from falling out of contention in the AFC West. Riding a four-game losing streak, the struggling Raiders face a daunting task when they host the division-leading Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday night.

Oakland plugged a void this week with the signing of four-time All-Pro linebacker NaVorro Bowman, a tackling machine who moves across the Bay after he was released by the San Francisco 49ers on Friday. "A lot of experience, a lot of leadership, a lot of physicality," star outside linebacker Khalil Mack said of Bowman. "You're talking about a guy that, all you've got to do is turn the ball back to him. He's going to be there. And that's what we're ready to do." Kansas City became the last team in the NFL to lose, dropping a 19-13 decision at home to Pittsburgh on Sunday, but it has won five in a row against the Raiders. I think the positive is we've got a short week to try to get this bounce back and get this taste out of our mouth, if there is a positive," Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith said.

POWER RANKINGS: Chiefs (-4.5) - Raiders (0) + home field (-3) = Chiefs -1.5

LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened as 2.5-point road favorites and that number has been bet up to the key number of 3. The total hit betting boards at 47.5 and has been dropped a full point to 46.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Chiefs -
DB S. Terrell (Probable, Concussion), WR T. Hill (Probable, Upper Body), OL L. Duvernay-Tardif (Questionable, Knee), RB C. West (Questionable, Concussion), WR A. Wilson (Doubful, Knee), OL P. Ehinger (Out Indefinitely, Knee), OL M. Morse (Out Indefinitely, Foot), WR C. Conley (I-R, Achilles), LB D. Nicolas (Questionable, Knee), LB T. Hali (Questionable, Knee), DB S. Nelson (Out, Abdominal), K C. Santos (Out, Groin), DB E. Berry (I-R, Achilles), RB S. Ware (I-R, Knee), DB A. Lampkin (I-R, Knee).

Raiders - FB J. Olawale (Probable, Concussion), LB M. Lee (Questionable, Ankle), LB C. James (Questionable, Knee), OL M. Newhouse (Questionable, Foot), G G. Jackson (Questionable, Foot), LB N. Morrow (Questionable, Ankle), TE L. Smith (Questionable, Knee), CB G. Conley (Doubful, Shin), DT D. Latham (Out, Suspension), LB A. Smith (Out Indefinitely, Suspension), S O. Melifonwu (Out, Knee), CB A. Hamilton (Out, Knee), G D. Kirkland (Out, Leg), K S. Janikowski (Out, Back).

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS, 4-2 O/U):Kansas City averaged nearly 33 points through its first five victories, but its offense was bottled up while its 27th-ranked run defense was shredded for 194 yards. Kareem Hunt rushed for a season-low 21 yards but had five receptions for 89 yards to become the first rookie in league history to amass at least 100 scrimmage yards in each of his team’s first six games. Multi-threat receiver Tyreek Hill injured his neck in Sunday's game and it was feared he might have a concussion, but the team pronounced him good to go. Smith threw for 246 yards and a TD last week, failing to post a 100-plus passer rating for the first time.

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS, 2-4 O/U):Derek Carr returned to the lineup after missing one game with a fractured bone in his back, but had another mediocre game and has four interceptions in his past three contests after tossing only six picks in the entire 2016 season. The vertical passing game has been a staple in Oakland since the franchise's inception, but deep threat Amari Cooper has a combined nine receptions for 51 yards during the four-game skid. Marshawn Lynch has not provided the expect jolt to the ground game, rushing for two TDs and an averaging 42.8 yards rushing. Only three teams in the league have fewer than the Raiders' 11 sacks.

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games.
* Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Under is 8-1 in Chiefs' last 9 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 5-0 in Raiders' last 5 vs. AFC West.
* Chiefs are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Oakland.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road favorite Chiefs at a rate of 72 percent and the Under is picking up 52 percent of the totals wagers.
 

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