[FONT=open_sansregular]Zcode Public Fade Plays - Week 7
We went 2-1 ATS in Week 6 which improves our YTD to 13-5. Let’s see if we can keep it going with a few potential plays for Week 7. The main strategy I want to implement is fading the public. Books are always looking to exploit public perception so hopefully we can find a few winners by fading the public in a few heavily public-bet games. Obviously, this is written on Monday (10/16) so always keep an eye on the changing lines and percentages.[/FONT]
[FONT=open_sansregular]KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND[/FONT]
[FONT=open_sansregular]While the Chiefs lost their first game of the season last week, the public still wants nothing to do with a disappointing Raiders team.[/FONT]
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[FONT=open_sansregular]This is a huge, must win game for Oakland. While both teams had a short week to prepare, Oakland didn’t have to travel and I think we will get a max effort from the Raiders. Let’s take Oakland +3 (Bookmaker)[/FONT]
[FONT=open_sansregular]ARIZONA @ LOS ANGELES RAMS[/FONT]
[FONT=open_sansregular]The public took notice of Adrian Peterson and the new look Cardinals.[/FONT]
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[FONT=open_sansregular]While the Cardinals did look much improved on offense, the Rams have quietly put together a strong start to their season. This is a great example of a team (Arizona) catching a lot of hype after a win which influences the public to overlook a good Rams team. Let’s take Los Angeles -3 (5Dimes)[/FONT]
[FONT=open_sansregular]DALLAS @ SAN FRANCISCO[/FONT]
[FONT=open_sansregular]San Francisco has not won a game yet this season and the public is on the Cowboys.[/FONT]
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[FONT=open_sansregular]While the 49ers haven’t won a game yet, they have stayed within 3 points for five straight games. Now back at home after 3 straight road games, they will be hungry to get their first win in front of their fans. Dallas, who might be without Ezekiel Elliott, hasn’t lived up to expectations and that might continue in a tougher-than-expected road trip. Let’s take San Francisco +6 (Bookmaker)[/FONT]
[FONT=open_sansregular]Like I mentioned, we have a few days until these games take place with lots of wagering in between so keeping an eye on the lines and percentages throughout the week is important. Fading the public is very successful when the public side is 80%+ so keep that in mind as the week progresses and the betting volume grows.[/FONT]
We went 2-1 ATS in Week 6 which improves our YTD to 13-5. Let’s see if we can keep it going with a few potential plays for Week 7. The main strategy I want to implement is fading the public. Books are always looking to exploit public perception so hopefully we can find a few winners by fading the public in a few heavily public-bet games. Obviously, this is written on Monday (10/16) so always keep an eye on the changing lines and percentages.[/FONT]
[FONT=open_sansregular]KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND[/FONT]
[FONT=open_sansregular]While the Chiefs lost their first game of the season last week, the public still wants nothing to do with a disappointing Raiders team.[/FONT]
[FONT=open_sansregular]
[/FONT][FONT=open_sansregular]This is a huge, must win game for Oakland. While both teams had a short week to prepare, Oakland didn’t have to travel and I think we will get a max effort from the Raiders. Let’s take Oakland +3 (Bookmaker)[/FONT]
[FONT=open_sansregular]ARIZONA @ LOS ANGELES RAMS[/FONT]
[FONT=open_sansregular]The public took notice of Adrian Peterson and the new look Cardinals.[/FONT]
[FONT=open_sansregular]
[/FONT][FONT=open_sansregular]While the Cardinals did look much improved on offense, the Rams have quietly put together a strong start to their season. This is a great example of a team (Arizona) catching a lot of hype after a win which influences the public to overlook a good Rams team. Let’s take Los Angeles -3 (5Dimes)[/FONT]
[FONT=open_sansregular]DALLAS @ SAN FRANCISCO[/FONT]
[FONT=open_sansregular]San Francisco has not won a game yet this season and the public is on the Cowboys.[/FONT]
[FONT=open_sansregular]
[/FONT][FONT=open_sansregular]While the 49ers haven’t won a game yet, they have stayed within 3 points for five straight games. Now back at home after 3 straight road games, they will be hungry to get their first win in front of their fans. Dallas, who might be without Ezekiel Elliott, hasn’t lived up to expectations and that might continue in a tougher-than-expected road trip. Let’s take San Francisco +6 (Bookmaker)[/FONT]
[FONT=open_sansregular]Like I mentioned, we have a few days until these games take place with lots of wagering in between so keeping an eye on the lines and percentages throughout the week is important. Fading the public is very successful when the public side is 80%+ so keep that in mind as the week progresses and the betting volume grows.[/FONT]
“Picks With Nick” NFL selections ATS Week 7
Selections (for entertainment purposes only) for Panthers-Bears, Saints-Packers and Falcons-Patriots included ATS
By: Nick Camino
Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images
CLEVELAND – Week 7 of the NFL season kicked off with an incredible AFC West showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders scored the game-winning touchdown with 0:00 on the clock for an exciting 31-30 victory over the Chiefs. “Picks With Nick” is continuing making selections against the spread (for entertainment purposes only, of course) in both college and NFL football. On WTAM 1100 Thursday evening, I did give away two winners: Raiders (+3) in the NFL and Memphis (+3) in college, however those will not count toward our final “Picks With Nick” totals ATS.
Following our first season, in which we nailed 54% of the games we selected against the spread (ATS), we are back at it again enjoying another winning season so far. In fact, here’s our numbers through seven weeks of college football and six weeks of the NFL against the number for full transparency:
CFB: 19-15-2 (56%)
NFL: 17-8 (68%)
Total: 36-23-2 (61%)
Our picks are made against Las Vegas oddsmakers merely helping create football interactions on Facebook and Twitter, as well as online and on-air content for Newsradio WTAM 1100 and WTAM.com.
Similar to last football season, our goal is to win 53% of our picks against the spread. Las Vegas sports books, give us 11/10 odds or -110, so in order to break even in picking games against the spread (ATS) we must win 52.4% of the games we select. Winning 58% of picks ATS would place you among the most elite sports handicappers in the world. We’ll shoot for somewhere between 53% - 58% again this season.
We are again keeping our college and NFL selections separate, but we will update the results weekly with full transparency seeing how we stack up against the Las Vegas oddsmakers. We are coming off a winning first season in which we hit 54% ATS in college football and NFL combined in 2016.
“Picks With Nick” will also feature a radio segment weekly on Newsradio WTAM 1100 discussing our selections.
Below is our full slate of NFL picks featuring four selections ATS for Week 7:
Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images
Game: Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears
Where: Chicago, Illinois – Soldier Field
Kickoff: 1:00 pm ET
TV: CBS
Spread: Panthers -3
Nick’s Pick: If you have followed “Picks With Nick” over the last two seasons of football, it’s rare when we take a road favorite in either the NFL or college, but this will be one of those instances. The Bears are fresh off a hard-fought overtime victory last week in Baltimore, while the Panthers have had extra rest following last Thursday’s loss to the Eagles. Cam Newton and the Panthers are plain and simple a more talented football team and will find a way to get back in the win column against a rookie quarterback and a banged up Chicago squad. Nick’s Pick is Panthers -3.
Game: New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers
Where: Green Bay, Wisconsin – Lambeau Field
Kickoff: 1:00 pm ET
TV: FOX
Spread: Saints -4
Nick’s Pick: To quote the great Aaron Rodgers, “R-E-L-A-X.” The Packers will be fine this week, even without their star quarterback. Have the Saints ever played well outdoors at Lambeau Field? This line is a complete overreaction to the Rodgers injury and while Green Bay won’t run away with this game, they will at the very least find a way to cover this generous number at home. Nick’s Pick is Packers +4.
Game: Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Giants
Where: East Rutherford, New Jersey – MetLife Stadium
Kickoff: 4:25 pm ET
TV: CBS
Spread: Seahawks -4.5
Nick’s Pick: Of course the Seahawks are the better overall team, but they are 1-2 on the road this season and always look like a different team away from the 12th Man. Perhaps the Giants found something while gaining some confidence in last week’s dominating win over the Denver Broncos? We won’t search for answers, we’ll just take Eli Manning getting points at home…don’t overthink it. Nick’s Pick is Giants +4.5.
Game: Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots
Where: Foxboro, Massachusetts – Gillette Stadium
Kickoff: 8:30 pm ET
TV: NBC
Spread: Patriots -3
Nick’s Pick: Why is this spread only -3? It makes zero sense. Yes, the Patriots are only 4-2. And yes, they are only 1-2 this season when playing in Foxboro. Both of those trends go away quickly Sunday night on primetime television when New England takes care of business in this Super Bowl rematch. Did we mention, the Falcons just got embarrassed at home by the Miami Dolphins? Nick’s Pick is Patriots -3.
- Nick Camino
Record in college football ATS to date: 19-15-2 (56%)
Record in NFL ATS to date: 17-8 (68%)
Total record ATS to date: 36-23-2 (61%)
Selections (for entertainment purposes only) for Panthers-Bears, Saints-Packers and Falcons-Patriots included ATS
By: Nick Camino
CLEVELAND – Week 7 of the NFL season kicked off with an incredible AFC West showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders scored the game-winning touchdown with 0:00 on the clock for an exciting 31-30 victory over the Chiefs. “Picks With Nick” is continuing making selections against the spread (for entertainment purposes only, of course) in both college and NFL football. On WTAM 1100 Thursday evening, I did give away two winners: Raiders (+3) in the NFL and Memphis (+3) in college, however those will not count toward our final “Picks With Nick” totals ATS.
Following our first season, in which we nailed 54% of the games we selected against the spread (ATS), we are back at it again enjoying another winning season so far. In fact, here’s our numbers through seven weeks of college football and six weeks of the NFL against the number for full transparency:
CFB: 19-15-2 (56%)
NFL: 17-8 (68%)
Total: 36-23-2 (61%)
Our picks are made against Las Vegas oddsmakers merely helping create football interactions on Facebook and Twitter, as well as online and on-air content for Newsradio WTAM 1100 and WTAM.com.
Similar to last football season, our goal is to win 53% of our picks against the spread. Las Vegas sports books, give us 11/10 odds or -110, so in order to break even in picking games against the spread (ATS) we must win 52.4% of the games we select. Winning 58% of picks ATS would place you among the most elite sports handicappers in the world. We’ll shoot for somewhere between 53% - 58% again this season.
We are again keeping our college and NFL selections separate, but we will update the results weekly with full transparency seeing how we stack up against the Las Vegas oddsmakers. We are coming off a winning first season in which we hit 54% ATS in college football and NFL combined in 2016.
“Picks With Nick” will also feature a radio segment weekly on Newsradio WTAM 1100 discussing our selections.
Below is our full slate of NFL picks featuring four selections ATS for Week 7:
Game: Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears
Where: Chicago, Illinois – Soldier Field
Kickoff: 1:00 pm ET
TV: CBS
Spread: Panthers -3
Nick’s Pick: If you have followed “Picks With Nick” over the last two seasons of football, it’s rare when we take a road favorite in either the NFL or college, but this will be one of those instances. The Bears are fresh off a hard-fought overtime victory last week in Baltimore, while the Panthers have had extra rest following last Thursday’s loss to the Eagles. Cam Newton and the Panthers are plain and simple a more talented football team and will find a way to get back in the win column against a rookie quarterback and a banged up Chicago squad. Nick’s Pick is Panthers -3.
Game: New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers
Where: Green Bay, Wisconsin – Lambeau Field
Kickoff: 1:00 pm ET
TV: FOX
Spread: Saints -4
Nick’s Pick: To quote the great Aaron Rodgers, “R-E-L-A-X.” The Packers will be fine this week, even without their star quarterback. Have the Saints ever played well outdoors at Lambeau Field? This line is a complete overreaction to the Rodgers injury and while Green Bay won’t run away with this game, they will at the very least find a way to cover this generous number at home. Nick’s Pick is Packers +4.
Game: Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Giants
Where: East Rutherford, New Jersey – MetLife Stadium
Kickoff: 4:25 pm ET
TV: CBS
Spread: Seahawks -4.5
Nick’s Pick: Of course the Seahawks are the better overall team, but they are 1-2 on the road this season and always look like a different team away from the 12th Man. Perhaps the Giants found something while gaining some confidence in last week’s dominating win over the Denver Broncos? We won’t search for answers, we’ll just take Eli Manning getting points at home…don’t overthink it. Nick’s Pick is Giants +4.5.
Game: Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots
Where: Foxboro, Massachusetts – Gillette Stadium
Kickoff: 8:30 pm ET
TV: NBC
Spread: Patriots -3
Nick’s Pick: Why is this spread only -3? It makes zero sense. Yes, the Patriots are only 4-2. And yes, they are only 1-2 this season when playing in Foxboro. Both of those trends go away quickly Sunday night on primetime television when New England takes care of business in this Super Bowl rematch. Did we mention, the Falcons just got embarrassed at home by the Miami Dolphins? Nick’s Pick is Patriots -3.
- Nick Camino
Record in college football ATS to date: 19-15-2 (56%)
Record in NFL ATS to date: 17-8 (68%)
Total record ATS to date: 36-23-2 (61%)
