Ultimate NBA betting guide
Erin Rynning
ESPN INSIDER
As we enter the 2017-2018 season, its crystal clear that there's little change at the top of the NBA food chain. With the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers facing off in the last three NBA Finals, that matchup is the overwhelming favorite again this season. The Warriors are an amazing -240 (risk $240 to win $100) against the field to win their third NBA title in four years. Even if the Warriors lost Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry or Draymond Green, they would still be a co-favorite to win the title.
The Cavaliers sit at 4-1 to win the NBA championship, while the Boston Celtics are third at a price of 10-1. Meanwhile, the next three choices to potentially dethrone the Warriors are the Houston Rockets, San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder, all at 16-1. From a "value" perspective, the Rockets make the most sense and should be the second-best team in the NBA. The addition of Chris Paul is essential and takes much of the offensive burden off James Harden. They arguably burned themselves out in the regular season last year, an obvious learning curve moving forward to the 2018 playoffs as a big-time contender.
Below are my best bets for MVP, a division winner and several NBA over/unders, with all odds courtesy of the Westgate Super Book.
Northwest Division winner: Minnesota Timberwolves (+300)
With respect to the Denver Nuggets, Portland Trail Blazers and Utah Jazz, this is essentially a match-play bet between the Timberwolves and Thunder. Tom Thibodeau's team largely disappointed last year, winning just 31 games. garnering just 31 wins. However, the Wolves' point differential was one of a stronger team. Obviously, the addition of All-Star two-way player Jimmy Butler projects this team to take a massive step forward.
This, along with the development of Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins in the second year of Thibodeau's system, is why Minnesota will be a true playoff contender. The key to this bet is Thibodeau's hard-charging regular-season style. Every second of every game matters, as the Timberwolves will give nothing away over 82 games. In addition, this team figures to remain healthy and specifically when compared to the brittle Thunder. The Timberwolves are a sound bet to outperform the Thunder over the course of the 82-game regular season.
MVP: Blake Griffin (80-1)
We witnessed Russell Westbrook's epic season last year for the Thunder, as he took home MVP honors, while averaging a triple-double for the season. The loss of Durant opened the door to run roughshod over the NBA. There's a somewhat similar situation in Los Angeles with the Clippers and their loss of Chris Paul. Clearly this is now Griffin's team surrounded by role players. Gone are the points and assists of Paul, while losing JJ Redick to Philadelphia takes away some scoring as well. In the preseason, Griffin has been all over the court, at times bringing the ball up the court, shooting 3s and playing point forward.
The door is wide-open for the 28-year-old to have a career year. The Clippers should win about the number of games the Thunder won a season ago, and with the league hierarchy full of dynamic duos and triple-threats, this big one could score the MVP at a huge price.
Season O/U wins
Oklahoma City Thunder (53.5)
It's easier to have a superteam in name than to actually have one in practice, and it all depends if the players truly want to play with one another. Obviously the big news for the Thunder in the offseason was obtaining Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. Remember: The Thunder picked them, they didn't pick the Thunder. George is a true superstar and difference-maker for the Thunder, but the addition of the 33-year-old Anthony is ho-hum. His fit with the Thunder is highly questionable, especially with the high usage and ball domination of Westbrook. In addition, Anthony will give back his offensive additions on the defensive end.
The big three of Westbrook, Anthony and George all encompass a checkered injury past, which is concerning, expecting the Thunder to get to at least 54 wins. The Thunder won 47 games last year with Westbrook doing most everything, but integrating more alpha dogs will be interesting and a work in progress. It's really not difficult to envision this not coming together with both George and Anthony already having one foot out the door. The Thunder will be very good, and the plan is to be great in the postseason as the regular season features enough rough edges for this team to go under their season win total projection.
Play: Under 53.5
Utah Jazz (41.5)
The Jazz won 51 games a season ago before injuries sabotaged any chance to make a dent in the playoffs. Head coach Quin Snyder has done an excellent job with the program, and while the loss of Gordon Hayward hurts, it's difficult to envision this team dropping off 10 wins from last year. The calling card for the Jazz will once again be on the defensive end of the basketball court, and it won't be a shock if they own the best defensive rating in the NBA. They finished third in defensive efficiency last season and should improve this season with the additions of Thabo Sefolosha and Ricky Rubio. It's on the offensive side of the ball where the question marks remain.
The loss of Hayward is big, but losing George Hill will also hurt. Hill played just 49 games last year, but with Hayward formed the cornerstones of Utah's offense because of their talent, but also their usage rate and running plays in half-court sets. Look for the Jazz to garner more fast-break points this year when creating turnovers. The expected return to health of Rodney Hood and Derrick Favors will be vital to their scoring, with reports favorable throughout training camp.
Play: Over 41.5
Detroit Pistons (38.5)
Stan Van Gundy is a quality NBA coach, but he's cornered himself a mess from a personnel standpoint. In his fourth year of the Pistons' rebuild, it's still tricky to envision what the plan is in Detroit. The two highest-paid players on the Pistons are Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson. Drummond is a poor fit with his lack of development and the fact the Pistons are better when he's off the court. He also can't be on the court to close games because of his poor free throw shooting. Meanwhile, Jackson is an enigma, while playing indifferent basketball throughout the campaign last year and clashing with Van Gundy. It's surprising both returned this season, while Van Gundy jettisoned Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who is a player with value and upside. It would come as no surprise if Van Gundy or someone else eventually rebuilds this team next season.
Play: Under 38.5
Erin Rynning
ESPN INSIDER
As we enter the 2017-2018 season, its crystal clear that there's little change at the top of the NBA food chain. With the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers facing off in the last three NBA Finals, that matchup is the overwhelming favorite again this season. The Warriors are an amazing -240 (risk $240 to win $100) against the field to win their third NBA title in four years. Even if the Warriors lost Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry or Draymond Green, they would still be a co-favorite to win the title.
The Cavaliers sit at 4-1 to win the NBA championship, while the Boston Celtics are third at a price of 10-1. Meanwhile, the next three choices to potentially dethrone the Warriors are the Houston Rockets, San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder, all at 16-1. From a "value" perspective, the Rockets make the most sense and should be the second-best team in the NBA. The addition of Chris Paul is essential and takes much of the offensive burden off James Harden. They arguably burned themselves out in the regular season last year, an obvious learning curve moving forward to the 2018 playoffs as a big-time contender.
Below are my best bets for MVP, a division winner and several NBA over/unders, with all odds courtesy of the Westgate Super Book.
Northwest Division winner: Minnesota Timberwolves (+300)
With respect to the Denver Nuggets, Portland Trail Blazers and Utah Jazz, this is essentially a match-play bet between the Timberwolves and Thunder. Tom Thibodeau's team largely disappointed last year, winning just 31 games. garnering just 31 wins. However, the Wolves' point differential was one of a stronger team. Obviously, the addition of All-Star two-way player Jimmy Butler projects this team to take a massive step forward.
This, along with the development of Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins in the second year of Thibodeau's system, is why Minnesota will be a true playoff contender. The key to this bet is Thibodeau's hard-charging regular-season style. Every second of every game matters, as the Timberwolves will give nothing away over 82 games. In addition, this team figures to remain healthy and specifically when compared to the brittle Thunder. The Timberwolves are a sound bet to outperform the Thunder over the course of the 82-game regular season.
MVP: Blake Griffin (80-1)
We witnessed Russell Westbrook's epic season last year for the Thunder, as he took home MVP honors, while averaging a triple-double for the season. The loss of Durant opened the door to run roughshod over the NBA. There's a somewhat similar situation in Los Angeles with the Clippers and their loss of Chris Paul. Clearly this is now Griffin's team surrounded by role players. Gone are the points and assists of Paul, while losing JJ Redick to Philadelphia takes away some scoring as well. In the preseason, Griffin has been all over the court, at times bringing the ball up the court, shooting 3s and playing point forward.
The door is wide-open for the 28-year-old to have a career year. The Clippers should win about the number of games the Thunder won a season ago, and with the league hierarchy full of dynamic duos and triple-threats, this big one could score the MVP at a huge price.
Season O/U wins
Oklahoma City Thunder (53.5)
It's easier to have a superteam in name than to actually have one in practice, and it all depends if the players truly want to play with one another. Obviously the big news for the Thunder in the offseason was obtaining Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. Remember: The Thunder picked them, they didn't pick the Thunder. George is a true superstar and difference-maker for the Thunder, but the addition of the 33-year-old Anthony is ho-hum. His fit with the Thunder is highly questionable, especially with the high usage and ball domination of Westbrook. In addition, Anthony will give back his offensive additions on the defensive end.
The big three of Westbrook, Anthony and George all encompass a checkered injury past, which is concerning, expecting the Thunder to get to at least 54 wins. The Thunder won 47 games last year with Westbrook doing most everything, but integrating more alpha dogs will be interesting and a work in progress. It's really not difficult to envision this not coming together with both George and Anthony already having one foot out the door. The Thunder will be very good, and the plan is to be great in the postseason as the regular season features enough rough edges for this team to go under their season win total projection.
Play: Under 53.5
Utah Jazz (41.5)
The Jazz won 51 games a season ago before injuries sabotaged any chance to make a dent in the playoffs. Head coach Quin Snyder has done an excellent job with the program, and while the loss of Gordon Hayward hurts, it's difficult to envision this team dropping off 10 wins from last year. The calling card for the Jazz will once again be on the defensive end of the basketball court, and it won't be a shock if they own the best defensive rating in the NBA. They finished third in defensive efficiency last season and should improve this season with the additions of Thabo Sefolosha and Ricky Rubio. It's on the offensive side of the ball where the question marks remain.
The loss of Hayward is big, but losing George Hill will also hurt. Hill played just 49 games last year, but with Hayward formed the cornerstones of Utah's offense because of their talent, but also their usage rate and running plays in half-court sets. Look for the Jazz to garner more fast-break points this year when creating turnovers. The expected return to health of Rodney Hood and Derrick Favors will be vital to their scoring, with reports favorable throughout training camp.
Play: Over 41.5
Detroit Pistons (38.5)
Stan Van Gundy is a quality NBA coach, but he's cornered himself a mess from a personnel standpoint. In his fourth year of the Pistons' rebuild, it's still tricky to envision what the plan is in Detroit. The two highest-paid players on the Pistons are Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson. Drummond is a poor fit with his lack of development and the fact the Pistons are better when he's off the court. He also can't be on the court to close games because of his poor free throw shooting. Meanwhile, Jackson is an enigma, while playing indifferent basketball throughout the campaign last year and clashing with Van Gundy. It's surprising both returned this season, while Van Gundy jettisoned Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who is a player with value and upside. It would come as no surprise if Van Gundy or someone else eventually rebuilds this team next season.
Play: Under 38.5
