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Week 8: Update
- Thread starter ofred
- Start date
1* ODU +10 This is a season saving game for a beleaguered ODU team at home. Their QB problems have turned a 2016 team at 10-3 into a 2-4 team desperate for a win. They are wearing black, encouraging fan turnout, and expecting their decent defense to rise to the occasion. WKU has played a very weak schedule, and they could letdown here on the road to a team on a 4 game losing streak.
1* Marshall -2.5 Marshall playing great D and special teams right now. They have a struggling offense that has a pretty good QB, but MTSU has more problems on offense and a QB that is turnover prone. Their OL has been leaking like a sieve. Marshall D has been creating TOs and this could be a big factor here.
1* Marshall -2.5 Marshall playing great D and special teams right now. They have a struggling offense that has a pretty good QB, but MTSU has more problems on offense and a QB that is turnover prone. Their OL has been leaking like a sieve. Marshall D has been creating TOs and this could be a big factor here.
Sorry about the brief write-ups. Writing this on a tablet and short of time.
4* Notre Dame -3 (-120) Have seen USC play a lot and they are still overrated. Even in their Beaver game, they looked about on the same level. If not for a myriad of mistakes by the Beavs, would have been close. USC has had to play all out each and every game, and for an injury plagued team, they might be short on gas. Notre Dame run game will wear them down....that and the noise of a crowd that will be screaming at every ND positive play.
4* Notre Dame -3 (-120) Have seen USC play a lot and they are still overrated. Even in their Beaver game, they looked about on the same level. If not for a myriad of mistakes by the Beavs, would have been close. USC has had to play all out each and every game, and for an injury plagued team, they might be short on gas. Notre Dame run game will wear them down....that and the noise of a crowd that will be screaming at every ND positive play.
4* Indiana +7(-120)
Indiana has the defense and offensive talent to win this game. In the last 2 years they have played the better Big 10 teams close or own games like this. Too many points for a mediocre MSU offense.
3* CAL +3 The PAC 12 has a way of shooting down mid-level teams and until the last 2 games Arizona wasn't even mid-level. Cal's D will figure out how to limit Arizona QB, and force him to pass. Cal had a couple of bumps this season, but I like them here at home getting points due to the hype on Arizona. Arizona, off two unexpected wins, a letdown?
Indiana has the defense and offensive talent to win this game. In the last 2 years they have played the better Big 10 teams close or own games like this. Too many points for a mediocre MSU offense.
3* CAL +3 The PAC 12 has a way of shooting down mid-level teams and until the last 2 games Arizona wasn't even mid-level. Cal's D will figure out how to limit Arizona QB, and force him to pass. Cal had a couple of bumps this season, but I like them here at home getting points due to the hype on Arizona. Arizona, off two unexpected wins, a letdown?
Meant to say Indiana has "won" games like this, not own.
2* ECU +6 I still think BYU is getting too much credit with a line like this. They have poor playmakers and a slow defense. Their HC seems over his head. ECU playing at home and can feel much better about their lousy season beating an established team like BYU.
2* Kentucky +12.5 MSU still living off their upset of LSU. Fitz gets his 100+ yards! but they still are a mediocre one-dimensional team. Ky. hangs around in games like this usually, and possibly pulls the upset.
2* Texas +7 Take out the Maryland game and Texas is having an improved season if not winning too many games. Should have beaten USC and maybe Oklahoma. Okie State is hard to play against and yet they have shown they can be beaten or played closely. Hermann finally gets the win he's been after.
2* ECU +6 I still think BYU is getting too much credit with a line like this. They have poor playmakers and a slow defense. Their HC seems over his head. ECU playing at home and can feel much better about their lousy season beating an established team like BYU.
2* Kentucky +12.5 MSU still living off their upset of LSU. Fitz gets his 100+ yards! but they still are a mediocre one-dimensional team. Ky. hangs around in games like this usually, and possibly pulls the upset.
2* Texas +7 Take out the Maryland game and Texas is having an improved season if not winning too many games. Should have beaten USC and maybe Oklahoma. Okie State is hard to play against and yet they have shown they can be beaten or played closely. Hermann finally gets the win he's been after.
Some of these plays and those above a 1* would likely have been played for more $, but didn't have as much time to research. The lines are from 2 days ago when I posted. Anyways, here's a short explanation for the 1*:
1* Miami, OH -2.5 Here's another team that is better than their record or results. Buffalo is undefeated ATS, but they are long overdue for a low spot, and on the road would be a likely place to have it. Miami is playing for some redemption for a poor season so far.
1* Miami, FL -17 Syracuse beats Clemson, and overall has looked good this season. Like their QB, but like Miami QB Rosier even better. Also, Travis Homer will fill in nicely for Walton. Miami knows it'll have to play it's best to win here, and I think their D will play well. Miami has an outside shot at a playoff spot, and honestly, now that their OL has improved this year, and have a mobile QB, I like their chances for a 1 loss season.
1* Tulane +11.5 Lost a 5* on Tulane last week, but I still feel they are well-coached, play hard for 60 minutes no matter what the score, and have a defense that is hard to prep for. USF has played well, but road games at this time of the season can be difficult to get up for. Also, USF has played a weak schedule, very weak.
1* BGU +14 Bowling Green is a long time MAC stalwart, and has gone through hard times these last 2 seasons. But they do recruit well, and they seem to be climbing out of the basement of the league. Besides NIU and the whole MAC seems to have parity among teams top to bottom. Home game here, and BG has a chance to also redeem themselves a bit. NIU not exactly an offensive juggernaut.
1* Oregon +7 Willie Taggart will make some changes to make this game competitive, and I would''t be surprised to see Oregon win. DC Jim Leavitt will have the defense rebounding from last week's Stanford debacle. The Ducks can also run often vs. a porous UCLA defense. UCLA looks like a dead-man walking team even with Josh Rosen having a great year.
1* Cinn. +7.5 Another team at home that has to make some adjustments to get their offense going vs. a fairly poor SMU defense. UCF and USF are out of their league, but Cinn. matches up well physically with SMU, and I expect a great effort here. I guess I'm over playing this redemption thing this week, but football is such a prideful, physical sport, that even a bad team can play intense enough to beat a better team. UC has decent talent, and I can't see SMU winning by much, and very possibly getting upset.
1* Miami, OH -2.5 Here's another team that is better than their record or results. Buffalo is undefeated ATS, but they are long overdue for a low spot, and on the road would be a likely place to have it. Miami is playing for some redemption for a poor season so far.
1* Miami, FL -17 Syracuse beats Clemson, and overall has looked good this season. Like their QB, but like Miami QB Rosier even better. Also, Travis Homer will fill in nicely for Walton. Miami knows it'll have to play it's best to win here, and I think their D will play well. Miami has an outside shot at a playoff spot, and honestly, now that their OL has improved this year, and have a mobile QB, I like their chances for a 1 loss season.
1* Tulane +11.5 Lost a 5* on Tulane last week, but I still feel they are well-coached, play hard for 60 minutes no matter what the score, and have a defense that is hard to prep for. USF has played well, but road games at this time of the season can be difficult to get up for. Also, USF has played a weak schedule, very weak.
1* BGU +14 Bowling Green is a long time MAC stalwart, and has gone through hard times these last 2 seasons. But they do recruit well, and they seem to be climbing out of the basement of the league. Besides NIU and the whole MAC seems to have parity among teams top to bottom. Home game here, and BG has a chance to also redeem themselves a bit. NIU not exactly an offensive juggernaut.
1* Oregon +7 Willie Taggart will make some changes to make this game competitive, and I would''t be surprised to see Oregon win. DC Jim Leavitt will have the defense rebounding from last week's Stanford debacle. The Ducks can also run often vs. a porous UCLA defense. UCLA looks like a dead-man walking team even with Josh Rosen having a great year.
1* Cinn. +7.5 Another team at home that has to make some adjustments to get their offense going vs. a fairly poor SMU defense. UCF and USF are out of their league, but Cinn. matches up well physically with SMU, and I expect a great effort here. I guess I'm over playing this redemption thing this week, but football is such a prideful, physical sport, that even a bad team can play intense enough to beat a better team. UC has decent talent, and I can't see SMU winning by much, and very possibly getting upset.
2* WSU/ Colorado -under 52 This seems like a low total for a PAC 12 game, but it is going to be miserable conditions in Pullman Saturday night. A cold steady rain, peaking at game time, a windchill of 35-40 degrees, with gusts up to 30 mph. Also, Wazzu seemingly has a go-go offense, but they don't score as much as you'd think- averaging just 22 its. per game in their last 3 games. They aren't playing a patsy like Oregon State or Nevada, and they short pass down the field, but often kick a FG, or sometimes fizzle in the red zone. As for the Buffs, they are used to cold, but not wet, cold like this. Wazzu be missing their best WR(suspended).
1* WVU/ Baylor- over 67 Baylor missing their top RB, and I expect Zach Smith will be slinging it often to keep up with high powered WV offense. WVU's offense is a thing of beauty. Will Grier is the kind of playmaker that makes defenses stay up at night. WVU can run and pass equally well. I can see a 47-40 type game here.
1* Oregon +6 One more unit that says Oregon hogs the ball here against the dead last in the country running defense. The Ducks will find a way to pass just enough to keep UCLA honest.
1* Oregon +6 One more unit that says Oregon hogs the ball here against the dead last in the country running defense. The Ducks will find a way to pass just enough to keep UCLA honest.
2* Texas Tech -7 This partly a hunch bet that says Iowa State might finally have a down game. They have hung in there or won every game this season, so why is Texas Tech giving up 7 to them? It's almost like the books are begging for money on ISU. Part of this play is that Texas Tech plays defense now, while still maintaining an explosive offense. Their demeanor on the field and on the sidelines just looks different now, like they can beat anyone. It used to be, "Yeah we scored 45, but our opponent scored 50+". Also, better tackling helps.
Man, did I misjudge Iowa State. They look like a team that is consistent in all aspects of their game. Great D today.
1* Penn State-7(-130) Just had to put a something on this game, and at 7 it's a fair number. 3 things make this a play for me: 1) PSU fans have not seen a game this big with national implications in a long while. They will be insane. 2) O'Korn. Can he deliver enough 3rd down conversions? His immobility is a factor, and could lead to turnovers. 3) We know how good the Michigan D is, but I think at home the PSU defense will be at their best. They have come a long way from last year.
1* Penn State-7(-130) Just had to put a something on this game, and at 7 it's a fair number. 3 things make this a play for me: 1) PSU fans have not seen a game this big with national implications in a long while. They will be insane. 2) O'Korn. Can he deliver enough 3rd down conversions? His immobility is a factor, and could lead to turnovers. 3) We know how good the Michigan D is, but I think at home the PSU defense will be at their best. They have come a long way from last year.
Indiana coach Tom Allen played the 4th quarter NOT to lose, and it ended up an 8 point loss. They were cruising offensively and defensively in the 3rd and beginning of the 4th, and he got ultra conservative. Difference for me of having a great week(sour grapes for sure).
Should of loaded up on ND, but the spread had me wary. Over-thinked it.
Should of loaded up on ND, but the spread had me wary. Over-thinked it.
