Contrarian NFL betting strategy for Week 7
Mark Gallant
ESPN INSIDER
10/18/17
Yesterday, I went out to my car to head to work and was greeted with a thin coat of frost on my windshield. Fall is finally here! Although we aren't expected to see any games in freezing temperatures any time soon, something that is perhaps even more important to the outcomes of NFL games is wind.
The fall breezes that accompany these chilly temperatures can wreak havoc on offenses and in order to take advantage of this, bettors should take the under when their anemometers are showing double digits.
At the moment, there are more than a handful of games in which the wind is expected to average more than 10 mph this week. To help limit our action, we are going to look only at games with totals on the higher side using historical data from Bet Labs Sports.
As you can see, this is a profitable strategy in general. Even in games with totals of 43.5 or less, unders have won at a more than 53 percent clip and provided more than 3 percent return on investment (ROI).
However, by eliminating those games and focusing on the games in which oddsmakers and bettors are expecting a lot of points, our winning percentage and ROI both increase substantially.
Why it works
A 10 mph breeze isn't going to feel like much to a person, but an air-filled football will be greatly impacted by it.
Quarterbacks are going to have trouble throwing the ball very far, which makes big plays less likely to occur. For some teams, this won't matter as much because they'll be able to either dink and dunk for short passes or march up the field on the ground. However, with the league trending toward the passing game, this system has performed much better in recent years.
Since the 2003 season, there have been just two seasons with less than a .500 record: 2003 and 2004. From 2003 to 2010, unders in windy games with high totals went 66-55 (54.5 percent). Since then, they have gone 85-49 (63.4 percent).
The teams that ground and pound are few and far between these days, and the records help portray that.
Another element of offensive football greatly impacted by high wind is field goals. Kickers have an advantage if the wind is blowing directly behind their backs, but they can struggle if it's any other direction. This has also played a larger role in recent years due to the longer extra point implemented in 2015.
Even if winds were howling before the 2015 season, there wasn't enough time for the ball to be impacted on a 20-yard extra point attempt. Now, kickers are missing about 5 percent more often on 33-yard extra point attempts ... and likely will do so even more in high winds.
Week 7 system matches
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
With Aaron Rodgers out, I don't think anyone is going to need convincing to bet this under. Currently, this is the most heavily bet game of the week, and it has the highest percentage of bets on the under, at 77 percent, with Brett Hundley set to start for the Packers.
With the high support on the under, the total has already dropped from 47.5 to 47. With the average wind speed of 11 mph at Lambeau, this is a good spot to agree with the public.
The pick: Under 47
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns
The Browns are having a bunch of trouble scoring points this season, and as is usually the case, they can't find a reliable quarterback. They looked to Kevin Hogan last week, but his line of 140 yards on 37 attempts with one touchdown and three interceptions wasn't exactly promising. I wonder if they regret releasing Brock Osweiler.
This total has actually gone up from 46 to 46.5 since opening, which is a little surprising, in my opinion. I felt that 46 was high to begin with, but with an average wind speed of 14 mph expected, the winds blowing in off Lake Erie should limit scoring in this one.
The Pick: Under 46.5
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
The Adrian Peterson-led Arizona offense looked quite potent this past Sunday, as Peterson helped Arizona get its first cover of the season. The Cardinals will face a division foe in the Rams who continue to impress with their NFC West-best 4-2 record.
Historically, unders in all games, regardless of wind, have fared much better in divisional matchups (52.7 percent) than in non-divisional matchups (47.9 percent), which further helps this bet.
The Pick: Under 47.5
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles
This week's Monday night game will feature a windy divisional game, as the surprising Eagles play host to Kirk Cousins and the Redskins.
At 48.5, this game is expected to be the highest scoring of our four picks. There aren't a ton of windy games with totals this high, but at 28-18 since 2003, unders have provided at 19 percent ROI in totals of 48.5 or higher.
The Pick: Under 48.5
Keep in mind that weather forecasts can change, and these games might not have as high of winds come Sunday. Conversely, there are a couple of games with winds that are expected to be around 8 or 9 mph that could become matches by week's end.
Note: Lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check in at ESPN Chalk's Live NFL Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and public betting percentage data. Odds info used in system matches reflects current odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
Mark Gallant
ESPN INSIDER
10/18/17
Yesterday, I went out to my car to head to work and was greeted with a thin coat of frost on my windshield. Fall is finally here! Although we aren't expected to see any games in freezing temperatures any time soon, something that is perhaps even more important to the outcomes of NFL games is wind.
The fall breezes that accompany these chilly temperatures can wreak havoc on offenses and in order to take advantage of this, bettors should take the under when their anemometers are showing double digits.
At the moment, there are more than a handful of games in which the wind is expected to average more than 10 mph this week. To help limit our action, we are going to look only at games with totals on the higher side using historical data from Bet Labs Sports.
As you can see, this is a profitable strategy in general. Even in games with totals of 43.5 or less, unders have won at a more than 53 percent clip and provided more than 3 percent return on investment (ROI).
However, by eliminating those games and focusing on the games in which oddsmakers and bettors are expecting a lot of points, our winning percentage and ROI both increase substantially.
Why it works
A 10 mph breeze isn't going to feel like much to a person, but an air-filled football will be greatly impacted by it.
Quarterbacks are going to have trouble throwing the ball very far, which makes big plays less likely to occur. For some teams, this won't matter as much because they'll be able to either dink and dunk for short passes or march up the field on the ground. However, with the league trending toward the passing game, this system has performed much better in recent years.
Since the 2003 season, there have been just two seasons with less than a .500 record: 2003 and 2004. From 2003 to 2010, unders in windy games with high totals went 66-55 (54.5 percent). Since then, they have gone 85-49 (63.4 percent).
The teams that ground and pound are few and far between these days, and the records help portray that.
Another element of offensive football greatly impacted by high wind is field goals. Kickers have an advantage if the wind is blowing directly behind their backs, but they can struggle if it's any other direction. This has also played a larger role in recent years due to the longer extra point implemented in 2015.
Even if winds were howling before the 2015 season, there wasn't enough time for the ball to be impacted on a 20-yard extra point attempt. Now, kickers are missing about 5 percent more often on 33-yard extra point attempts ... and likely will do so even more in high winds.
Week 7 system matches
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
With Aaron Rodgers out, I don't think anyone is going to need convincing to bet this under. Currently, this is the most heavily bet game of the week, and it has the highest percentage of bets on the under, at 77 percent, with Brett Hundley set to start for the Packers.
With the high support on the under, the total has already dropped from 47.5 to 47. With the average wind speed of 11 mph at Lambeau, this is a good spot to agree with the public.
The pick: Under 47
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns
The Browns are having a bunch of trouble scoring points this season, and as is usually the case, they can't find a reliable quarterback. They looked to Kevin Hogan last week, but his line of 140 yards on 37 attempts with one touchdown and three interceptions wasn't exactly promising. I wonder if they regret releasing Brock Osweiler.
This total has actually gone up from 46 to 46.5 since opening, which is a little surprising, in my opinion. I felt that 46 was high to begin with, but with an average wind speed of 14 mph expected, the winds blowing in off Lake Erie should limit scoring in this one.
The Pick: Under 46.5
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
The Adrian Peterson-led Arizona offense looked quite potent this past Sunday, as Peterson helped Arizona get its first cover of the season. The Cardinals will face a division foe in the Rams who continue to impress with their NFC West-best 4-2 record.
Historically, unders in all games, regardless of wind, have fared much better in divisional matchups (52.7 percent) than in non-divisional matchups (47.9 percent), which further helps this bet.
The Pick: Under 47.5
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles
This week's Monday night game will feature a windy divisional game, as the surprising Eagles play host to Kirk Cousins and the Redskins.
At 48.5, this game is expected to be the highest scoring of our four picks. There aren't a ton of windy games with totals this high, but at 28-18 since 2003, unders have provided at 19 percent ROI in totals of 48.5 or higher.
The Pick: Under 48.5
Keep in mind that weather forecasts can change, and these games might not have as high of winds come Sunday. Conversely, there are a couple of games with winds that are expected to be around 8 or 9 mph that could become matches by week's end.
Note: Lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check in at ESPN Chalk's Live NFL Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and public betting percentage data. Odds info used in system matches reflects current odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
