Best bets for Kansas City-Oakland
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
10/19/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Thursday night's game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Oakland Raiders
Total: 46.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 74 percent on Kansas City
Steele: Kansas City is 15-5 over the last 20 games, with three of those five defeats coming against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Last year, the Chiefs suffered a 43-14 loss at Pittsburgh in Week 4. They traveled to Oakland to take on Derek Carr and the Raiders in their next contest and won 26-10. Both teams have below-average defenses, but the Chiefs have the No. 2 offense in the NFL at 387 yards per game. Oakland was without Carr against the Baltimore Ravens, but the offense still struggled in his return against the Los Angeles Chargers with just 274 yards. (Oakland is No. 30 on offense with 278 yards per game.) Kansas City is 5-0 ATS as a divisional away favorite over the last two years, including wins in the "Black Hole" by 16 and 14 points.
Pick: Lean on Kansas City
Rynning: Everything that went right in the Raiders' 10-2 start to the season a year ago is seemingly going wrong during their four-game losing streak entering this contest. Last season, their impeccable start covered up flaws, which is why I didn't have them highly ranked. The flaws are currently on display, as this is still not a well-rounded team with more issues on defense. The Steelers showed the up-and-down nature of the NFL last week with a sound game plan against the Chiefs. The question lingers whether the rest of the NFL will duplicate the plan, and if so, how will the Chiefs adjust?
Pick: Pass
Sharp: Losers of four straight, the Raiders have the advantage of hosting a Thursday night game. The travel is significant on a short week, particularly after the physicality of the Chiefs' prior game against the Steelers. But we have come to find that these short turnarounds favor the better team more than the home team, as it is more difficult for a bad team to out-scheme and out-prepare its opponent with three days' less prep. With Carr's back injury, the Raiders offense absolutely must focus on the biggest edge it has -- the rushing attack against the Chiefs' 27th-ranked run defense. With the Raiders' slower offensive pace and a stronger commitment to the run, the Chiefs' scoring could be suppressed. But that is only in theory, because the Raiders defense is exceedingly bad (28th against the 21st-rated schedule), and the Chiefs have the most efficient offense in the league. If the Chiefs get out to an early lead, the Raiders will have no other choice but to pass more and execute faster.
Pick: Pass
Clay prediction and pick: Kansas City 25, Oakland 23 (Oakland and the over)
Parolin's prop bets
87.5 rushing yards by Kareem Hunt (O/U -110)
Hunt averaged 121.8 rush yards per game entering Week 6, with a 6.3 yards per rush average. Then came a nine-rush, 21-yard effort against the Steelers in which Hunt still notched 110 scrimmage yards thanks to five catches. Even more troubling is the 5.1 yards per rush that the Pittsburgh defense has allowed to teams other than Kansas City this season, a mark that suggested vulnerability. Instead, Hunt averaged 2.3 yards per rush.
The problem was not with Hunt, but rather with the Chiefs' offensive line. Kansas City has been without starting linemen Mitch Morse and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif since Duvernay-Tardif injured his knee in Week 4. With one or both of them on the field, Hunt is averaging a ridiculous 8.4 yards per rush (48 rushes for 403 yards) this season. Without both (like Thursday's game), his yards per rush average drops to 3.9 yards per rush over a 58-rush sample. That's also what the Raiders have given up per rush this season. In all, that leaves Hunt needing 23 rushes to hit an over, a number he's hit once (17.7 rushes per game average this season). They use him in too many different ways for him to reach 23 rushes.
Play: Under
236.5 passing yards by Derek Carr (O/U -110)
Carr and the Raiders offense had problems before Carr fractured the transverse process in his back in Week 4. To his credit, Carr has been playing through the injury, but aside from 262 yards in Week 1 against the Titans, Carr has been below 237 in four straight games and averaged 165.5 yards in that span. His 6.65 yards per attempt average is the lowest since his rookie season. The numbers certainly haven't been there, so why is the total so high? Because there's no evidence that the Raiders can slow the Chiefs offense either, and Kansas City will let Carr get yards to avoid the big play. Oakland's defense is allowing 8.0 yards per attempt, fourth worst in the league, and the Chiefs offense is tied for second in scoring this season with 177 points. The Raiders will likely have to throw, and Kansas City doesn't mind giving up the yards. The Chiefs have allowed 7.8 yards per attempt, 26th in the league. When Kansas City is leading, the average completion against them goes for 13.8 yards, the highest average in the league. Carr has been bad, but don't be surprised if Kansas City gets the lead and lets him reach the over while chasing the score.
Play: Over
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
10/19/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Thursday night's game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Oakland Raiders
Total: 46.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 74 percent on Kansas City
Steele: Kansas City is 15-5 over the last 20 games, with three of those five defeats coming against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Last year, the Chiefs suffered a 43-14 loss at Pittsburgh in Week 4. They traveled to Oakland to take on Derek Carr and the Raiders in their next contest and won 26-10. Both teams have below-average defenses, but the Chiefs have the No. 2 offense in the NFL at 387 yards per game. Oakland was without Carr against the Baltimore Ravens, but the offense still struggled in his return against the Los Angeles Chargers with just 274 yards. (Oakland is No. 30 on offense with 278 yards per game.) Kansas City is 5-0 ATS as a divisional away favorite over the last two years, including wins in the "Black Hole" by 16 and 14 points.
Pick: Lean on Kansas City
Rynning: Everything that went right in the Raiders' 10-2 start to the season a year ago is seemingly going wrong during their four-game losing streak entering this contest. Last season, their impeccable start covered up flaws, which is why I didn't have them highly ranked. The flaws are currently on display, as this is still not a well-rounded team with more issues on defense. The Steelers showed the up-and-down nature of the NFL last week with a sound game plan against the Chiefs. The question lingers whether the rest of the NFL will duplicate the plan, and if so, how will the Chiefs adjust?
Pick: Pass
Sharp: Losers of four straight, the Raiders have the advantage of hosting a Thursday night game. The travel is significant on a short week, particularly after the physicality of the Chiefs' prior game against the Steelers. But we have come to find that these short turnarounds favor the better team more than the home team, as it is more difficult for a bad team to out-scheme and out-prepare its opponent with three days' less prep. With Carr's back injury, the Raiders offense absolutely must focus on the biggest edge it has -- the rushing attack against the Chiefs' 27th-ranked run defense. With the Raiders' slower offensive pace and a stronger commitment to the run, the Chiefs' scoring could be suppressed. But that is only in theory, because the Raiders defense is exceedingly bad (28th against the 21st-rated schedule), and the Chiefs have the most efficient offense in the league. If the Chiefs get out to an early lead, the Raiders will have no other choice but to pass more and execute faster.
Pick: Pass
Clay prediction and pick: Kansas City 25, Oakland 23 (Oakland and the over)
Parolin's prop bets
87.5 rushing yards by Kareem Hunt (O/U -110)
Hunt averaged 121.8 rush yards per game entering Week 6, with a 6.3 yards per rush average. Then came a nine-rush, 21-yard effort against the Steelers in which Hunt still notched 110 scrimmage yards thanks to five catches. Even more troubling is the 5.1 yards per rush that the Pittsburgh defense has allowed to teams other than Kansas City this season, a mark that suggested vulnerability. Instead, Hunt averaged 2.3 yards per rush.
The problem was not with Hunt, but rather with the Chiefs' offensive line. Kansas City has been without starting linemen Mitch Morse and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif since Duvernay-Tardif injured his knee in Week 4. With one or both of them on the field, Hunt is averaging a ridiculous 8.4 yards per rush (48 rushes for 403 yards) this season. Without both (like Thursday's game), his yards per rush average drops to 3.9 yards per rush over a 58-rush sample. That's also what the Raiders have given up per rush this season. In all, that leaves Hunt needing 23 rushes to hit an over, a number he's hit once (17.7 rushes per game average this season). They use him in too many different ways for him to reach 23 rushes.
Play: Under
236.5 passing yards by Derek Carr (O/U -110)
Carr and the Raiders offense had problems before Carr fractured the transverse process in his back in Week 4. To his credit, Carr has been playing through the injury, but aside from 262 yards in Week 1 against the Titans, Carr has been below 237 in four straight games and averaged 165.5 yards in that span. His 6.65 yards per attempt average is the lowest since his rookie season. The numbers certainly haven't been there, so why is the total so high? Because there's no evidence that the Raiders can slow the Chiefs offense either, and Kansas City will let Carr get yards to avoid the big play. Oakland's defense is allowing 8.0 yards per attempt, fourth worst in the league, and the Chiefs offense is tied for second in scoring this season with 177 points. The Raiders will likely have to throw, and Kansas City doesn't mind giving up the yards. The Chiefs have allowed 7.8 yards per attempt, 26th in the league. When Kansas City is leading, the average completion against them goes for 13.8 yards, the highest average in the league. Carr has been bad, but don't be surprised if Kansas City gets the lead and lets him reach the over while chasing the score.
Play: Over
