Best CFB Week 8 bets
CFB VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
10/19/17
Our experts are back with their Week 8 college football picks. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica will pick out their top plays from some of the week's best matchups. It's all here in one file for your perusing pleasure.
Here are the best bets for Week 8 of the college football season.
ATS record:
Phil Steele: 3-4-1 in Week 7 (23-32-1 season)
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin: 4-0-1 in Week 7 (20-12-2 season)
Chris Fallica: 4-2 in Week 7 (28-22 season)
Note: Lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Common games
No. 19 Michigan Wolverines at No. 2 Penn State Nittany Lions (-9.5)
Steele: Penn State's defense is holding foes to 107 yards per game below their season average, which is No. 13 in the FBS, but Michigan's defense is No. 1, holding foes to 183 yards per game below their average. Michigan has held all six foes to season lows in total yards, and Penn State's season low is 312 yards. The Wolverines' offense was inconsistent to begin the season and became worse after losing starting quarterback Wilton Speight. Despite the positive talk about Penn State offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead, points will be hard to come by in this one. This will be a low-scoring game.
Pick: Under 45 total points
Score: Penn State 20, Michigan 10
Coughlin: It doesn't get much better than Moorhead matching up against Michigan defensive coordinator Donnie Brown, especially considering the tremendous talent level each has on his side of the ball. This game will be decided when these two units are on the field, considering the Lions have the considerable edge when their defense is on the field. PSU might have the best offense of the top five ranked teams in the country, led by quarterback Trace McSorley (13 touchdowns) and Heisman Trophy front-runner Saquon Barkley, who leads his team in both rushing and receiving yards. This game is about making a statement, and the feeling is James Franklin will do what he has to in order to make it look like a great win. I mean, he chose to kick a field goal from the 2-yard line down 28-0 in last year's game to avoid the shutout. He called a timeout to ice the Georgia State kicker when he was up 56-0 this year, and he also threw a halfback option pass with Barkley when the Nittany Lions were up 38-14 with four minutes left against Indiana. The Wolverines will have their hands full with Penn State.
ATS pick: Penn State
Score: Penn State 34, Michigan 13
Fallica: This is the time to get Michigan at an inflated number, as the Wolverines are coming off a loss to Michigan State and escaped Bloomington last week with an overtime win over Indiana. The offense looks quite one dimensional, and Penn State will be seeking revenge for last year's blowout loss. It almost reminds me of how Michigan entered the Ohio State game last year. The Wolverines lost at Iowa and struggled offensively against Indiana, and then voila, they looked like a completely different team at Ohio State, and probably were the better team that day. It's a new role for Penn State and Franklin, as they are now favored by almost double-digits in a ranked matchup.
Michigan's defense is elite, and I wonder where the max number of points we can expect Penn State to score falls. Only three times under Jim Harbaugh have the Wolverines allowed more than 27 points in Big Ten play, and all three came either against Ohio State or in overtime (or both). In the game in which Michigan allowed exactly 27 points, Michigan State scored on a fluke botched punt to hit 27. I'll say the max that Penn State can be expected to score is 24, which puts the Wolverines right in this one to the end.
ATS pick: Michigan
Score: Penn State 23, Michigan 20
No. 11 USC Trojans at No. 13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-3.5)
Steele: The home team has won four in a row in this series. USC has lost just once this year but has played below expectations, as they're just 1-6 versus the Vegas number, with Western Michigan, Texas and Utah all taking them to the wire. The Trojans have a banged-up football team with 21 players on the injury list, including 10 who are out for the year. Notre Dame is fresh off a bye, and Brian Kelly has won eight of nine games in that spot. The Irish average 308 rushing yards per game and an amazing 6.9 yards per carry behind one of the best offensive lines in the country. While USC is playing to an average game grade of 99.7, the Irish are at 104.1 and rate as a five-point home edge due to the situation.
ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 37, USC 23
Coughlin: Before the season started, I made the prediction that USC wouldn't win the Pac-12 because of its schedule, and this was one game that stuck out to me. USC does not have a bye in its schedule, and now the Trojans fly to South Bend after getting taken to the brink by the Utah Utes, surviving a two-point conversion attempt in the last minute. The Irish are fresh off a bye and nice and rested as they wait for the Trojans. USC had to exert so much in this early part of the season, whether it was coming from behind to beat Western Michigan in Week 1, going to overtime with Texas, getting beat on the road at Wazzu or battling with Utah last week. It feels like we've seen all the punches USC has, and I'm not sure they have the depth and persistence to travel east and get this win. They have had some brutal injuries impacting their two-deep roster. I like the situation that Notre Dame is in here, as they have a College Football Playoff spot with their name on it if they win out. Expect an entertaining game with the home team winning and playing the hell out of that fight song.
ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 31, USC 23
Fallica: It just feels like Notre Dame is going to be the public side here, but I'm gonna land on the Trojans in what I think is solely a contrarian pick. The Trojans' last game as a 'dog provided their best performance last year (win at Washington), but this version of USC is a beat-up bunch. The Irish are rested and get Brandon Wimbush back. A win here gets the upcoming gauntlet of a schedule on the right foot. I don't like the game a ton, as I think Notre Dame is the better team, but I expect USC to make one last stand, reminding people they still are hanging around. Still, I think the Irish kick a late field goal to win but not cover.
ATS pick: USC
Score: Notre Dame 30, USC 28
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-6)
Steele: Wake Forest does well defending the option, as it has held Army to 335 yards per game over the past four years and held Tulane to 280 yards last year. Wake had a 97-yard edge versus Florida State, and the Deacons have a solid defensive front seven to take on the option. They are in a solid situation fresh off a bye, and they catch Georgia Tech in a Miami/Clemson sandwich and off a tough last-second loss at Miami where the Yellow Jackets were outgained by 200 yards.
ATS pick: Wake Forest
Score: Georgia Tech 21, Wake Forest 20
Fallica: Wake Forest has been idle since a tough two-game stretch versus FSU and Clemson in which the Demon Deacons played pretty well. The Jackets have to get up off the mat following last week's heartbreaking loss at Miami, but it won't be easy against a Wake Forest defense that is 16th nationally in rush defense EPA. There won't be many possessions in this one, so it likely will not take many stops -- nor many scores -- by Wake to stay within the number.
ATS pick: Wake Forest
Score: Georgia Tech 28, Wake Forest 24
Friday games
Marshall Thundering Herd (-2.5) at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Steele: Middle Tennessee will again be without Brent Stockstill. He had a 31-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio last year, while John Urzua has a 6-8 ratio this year. Marshall has been a moneymaker, going 5-1 versus the Vegas number with its only loss an 11-point win as a 14-point favorite. Thundering Herd quarterback Chase Litton has a 13-3 ratio, and the team's lone loss this year was to a powerful North Carolina State team on the road, getting outgained by just 34 yards. While both teams allow 3.5 yards per carry, Marshall gives up completions just 54 percent of the time and Middle Tennessee allows 64 percent. Middle Tennessee hasn't found a replacement for star running back I'Tavius Mathers, who had over 2,000 total yards and 20 touchdowns last year. I think Marshall will continue to roll along and grab the road win.
ATS pick: Marshall
Score: Marshall 24, Middle Tennessee State 14
Air Force Falcons (-7) at Nevada Wolf Pack
Fallica: We saw the Falcons stumble on the road as a slight favorite in the week prior to the Navy game, and here we are again, with Air Force laying a touchdown the week before hosting Army. Air Force had a huge comeback win last week over UNLV, but since starting 0-5, Nevada has been better in the past two weeks, beating Hawaii and losing by two at Colorado State after blowing an 11-point third-quarter lead.
ATS pick: Nevada
Score: Air Force 42, Nevada 38
Saturday games
Louisville Cardinals at Florida State Seminoles (-6.5)
Steele: Florida State is playing for revenge after getting beaten handily on the road in an embarrassing performance last year. While FSU is averaging just 18 points per game, the Seminoles are improving weekly and have topped 400 yards versus both Miami and Duke. Both of those teams are rated in my top-20 defenses, and Louisville is just No. 68. I look for the Seminoles offense to get rolling in this contest. In four ACC games, the Cardinals' defense is allowing 522 yards per game, which is 134 yards per game above their opponent's average. Florida State has faced the nation's toughest schedule, and Louisville has faced just the No. 57 toughest slate. People are wondering how Florida State will stay motivated this year after three losses? All Jimbo Fisher has to do is remind his team about the 63-20 loss last year and mention that Bobby Petrino said it could have been much worse.
ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Florida State 37, Louisville 23
Arizona State Sun Devils at Utah Utes (-9.5)
Steele: As I've mentioned many times, last year's Arizona State team was a banged-up squad that was down half of its starters at times, with 20 or more players on the weekly injury report. This week, they have just two players on the injury list. Quarterback Manny Wilkins is completing 67 percent of his passes with an 8-2 TD-INT ratio. Arizona State is battle-tested, as it has taken on Stanford, Washington and Oregon (with Justin Herbert at quarterback), along with San Diego State and Texas Tech in nonconference action. The Sun Devils have played my No. 5 toughest schedule and held a Washington team averaging 43 points per game to just seven points last week.
ATS pick: Arizona State
Score: Utah 24, Arizona State 23
Central Michigan Chippewas (-2.5) at Ball State Cardinals
Steele: Ball State is 1-7 over the past two years in MAC home games, and the visitor is 7-3 in the series. With quarterback Riley Neal healthy, Ball State was sitting at 2-1 with a close loss at Illinois. Jack Milas has been under center in the Cardinals' past three games and is completing just 52 percent of his passes -- and he has thrown six interceptions without a touchdown. Central Michigan is 9-3 versus the Vegas number as an away favorite and has Michigan transfer Shane Morris as its quarterback. Central Michigan has taken on the tougher schedule (No. 94 versus No. 119) and already has road wins at Kansas and Ohio this year.
ATS pick: Central Michigan
Score: Central Michigan 27, Ball State 17
Purdue Boilermakers (-9.5) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Total: 47
Coughlin: The Scarlet Knights are fresh off their first conference win since 2015, ending a 16-game losing streak, and they did so by notching a school record for rushing yards in a conference game. They welcome in Purdue, the most pleasant surprise of the Big Ten in 2017. The Boilermakers have shown so much life under first-year head coach Jeff Brohm. Before playing Wisconsin (their toughest opponent) last week, the Boilers were averaging close to 30 points per game, playing two quarterbacks (Elijah Sindelar and David Blough) and were easily the most improved team in the league, if not the country. Expect both offenses to play well and a lot of kickoffs in this game.
Pick: Over 47 total points
Score: Purdue 34, Rutgers 25
Arizona Wildcats (-3) at California Golden Bears
Coughlin: How about the turnaround for these two programs? Arizona has found lightning in a bottle since going to new quarterback Khalil Tate, who has rushed for over 550 yards in his past two games. That's insane. In the two games before that, he didn't even see the field. While plenty of people will go against Cal this week because a letdown is expected after their enormous upset of Washington State last week on national television, I am siding with the Bears because of their coaching staff -- led by first-year head coach Justin Wilcox -- and their defense. The Bears made the Cougars completely one-dimensional last week and forced seven turnovers. If they can dominate the Wazzu air attack like they did, then I would guess they could force the Wildcats into throwing situations with a quarterback who has only thrown 34 passes on the season. I'll take the home team getting points.
ATS pick: California
Score: California 34, Arizona 27
North Texas Mean Green at Florida Atlantic Owls (-3.5)
Coughlin: This is another game in which I like the situation one team has coming in. North Texas comes in off an awesome win over UTSA, in which it went 98 yards in the last minutes of the game to cap off an emotional victory. The Owls come in off a bye, and they've scored over 30 points in each of their past three games. They dealt with Hurricane Irma to start the season, all while playing tough opponents such as Navy and Wisconsin. In all, the Owls are averaging over 430 yards of offense and over 34 points per game. The Lane Kiffin/Kendal Briles system is in full effect. I think the week off helps them get ready for that Mean Green offensive machine, a unit that averages 499 yards of total offense.
ATS pick: Florida Atlantic
Score: Florida Atlantic 38, North Texas 31
No. 24 LSU Tigers (-7) at Ole Miss Rebels
Fallica: Prevalent thought is that LSU's season is salvaged after hard-fought wins at Florida and versus Auburn. Ole Miss got drilled by Auburn a couple weeks back and beat a struggling Vanderbilt team last week. This will be the best offensive skill that LSU has faced all season. We saw the Tigers struggle mightily at Mississippi State earlier this year, and I think this game could head down that same path again. Look for Shea Patterson and the Rebels' offense to put up some numbers and get some revenge for last year's 38-21 loss in Baton Rouge, especially after LSU coach Ed Orgeron's comments earlier this week.
ATS pick: Ole Miss
Score: Ole Miss 34, LSU 27
No. 10 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-7) at Texas Longhorns
Fallica: I think this Texas defense is better than the TCU defense that helped the Horned Frogs beat the Cowboys in Stillwater. I have a little concern about UT bouncing back following a tough loss to Oklahoma, but this team has quickly turned into a Tom Herman team, playing well in the role of an underdog. The Longhorns nearly pulled off the road upset over USC, as well as the upset last week over Oklahoma. Herman's track record as a 'dog is well known, and I expect the Texas defense to get enough stops and create enough offensively to again be right there in a position to win.
ATS pick: Texas
Score: Oklahoma State 37, Texas 34
No. 23 West Virginia Mountaineers (-9.5) at Baylor Bears
Fallica: The Bears got blown out last week in Stillwater by Oklahoma State, but I think coming home will do them good. After an 0-3 start and the season seemingly in the dumps, Baylor put forth its best effort of the year in a 49-41 loss to Oklahoma. I think the Bears are potentially going to beat someone this year, whether it's West Virginia this week or Texas next week. Matt Rhule is playing a bunch of young guys who will continue to get better. This is also a little bit of a dangerous spot for West Virginia, as the Mountaineers had a tough loss at TCU a couple weeks ago and a big comeback win last week over Texas Tech. Now comes another trip to Texas, followed by what the Mountaineers will view as a bigger game next week in Morgantown versus Oklahoma State. I'll take the home team and the points.
ATS pick: Baylor
Score: West Virginia 44, Baylor 38
Indiana Hoosiers at No. 18 Michigan State Spartans (-7)
Fallica: Michigan State has won its three Big Ten games by a combined 14 points, and I expect another close one here. Behind mobile quarterback Peyton Ramsey and NFL-caliber wide receiver Simmie Cobbs Jr., the Hoosiers should give Michigan State its best offensive test since the Notre Dame game. And don't sleep on the IU defense giving Michigan State some trouble, as well.
ATS pick: Indiana
Score: Michigan State 24, Indiana 20
CFB VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
10/19/17
Our experts are back with their Week 8 college football picks. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica will pick out their top plays from some of the week's best matchups. It's all here in one file for your perusing pleasure.
Here are the best bets for Week 8 of the college football season.
ATS record:
Phil Steele: 3-4-1 in Week 7 (23-32-1 season)
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin: 4-0-1 in Week 7 (20-12-2 season)
Chris Fallica: 4-2 in Week 7 (28-22 season)
Note: Lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Common games
No. 19 Michigan Wolverines at No. 2 Penn State Nittany Lions (-9.5)
Steele: Penn State's defense is holding foes to 107 yards per game below their season average, which is No. 13 in the FBS, but Michigan's defense is No. 1, holding foes to 183 yards per game below their average. Michigan has held all six foes to season lows in total yards, and Penn State's season low is 312 yards. The Wolverines' offense was inconsistent to begin the season and became worse after losing starting quarterback Wilton Speight. Despite the positive talk about Penn State offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead, points will be hard to come by in this one. This will be a low-scoring game.
Pick: Under 45 total points
Score: Penn State 20, Michigan 10
Coughlin: It doesn't get much better than Moorhead matching up against Michigan defensive coordinator Donnie Brown, especially considering the tremendous talent level each has on his side of the ball. This game will be decided when these two units are on the field, considering the Lions have the considerable edge when their defense is on the field. PSU might have the best offense of the top five ranked teams in the country, led by quarterback Trace McSorley (13 touchdowns) and Heisman Trophy front-runner Saquon Barkley, who leads his team in both rushing and receiving yards. This game is about making a statement, and the feeling is James Franklin will do what he has to in order to make it look like a great win. I mean, he chose to kick a field goal from the 2-yard line down 28-0 in last year's game to avoid the shutout. He called a timeout to ice the Georgia State kicker when he was up 56-0 this year, and he also threw a halfback option pass with Barkley when the Nittany Lions were up 38-14 with four minutes left against Indiana. The Wolverines will have their hands full with Penn State.
ATS pick: Penn State
Score: Penn State 34, Michigan 13
Fallica: This is the time to get Michigan at an inflated number, as the Wolverines are coming off a loss to Michigan State and escaped Bloomington last week with an overtime win over Indiana. The offense looks quite one dimensional, and Penn State will be seeking revenge for last year's blowout loss. It almost reminds me of how Michigan entered the Ohio State game last year. The Wolverines lost at Iowa and struggled offensively against Indiana, and then voila, they looked like a completely different team at Ohio State, and probably were the better team that day. It's a new role for Penn State and Franklin, as they are now favored by almost double-digits in a ranked matchup.
Michigan's defense is elite, and I wonder where the max number of points we can expect Penn State to score falls. Only three times under Jim Harbaugh have the Wolverines allowed more than 27 points in Big Ten play, and all three came either against Ohio State or in overtime (or both). In the game in which Michigan allowed exactly 27 points, Michigan State scored on a fluke botched punt to hit 27. I'll say the max that Penn State can be expected to score is 24, which puts the Wolverines right in this one to the end.
ATS pick: Michigan
Score: Penn State 23, Michigan 20
No. 11 USC Trojans at No. 13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-3.5)
Steele: The home team has won four in a row in this series. USC has lost just once this year but has played below expectations, as they're just 1-6 versus the Vegas number, with Western Michigan, Texas and Utah all taking them to the wire. The Trojans have a banged-up football team with 21 players on the injury list, including 10 who are out for the year. Notre Dame is fresh off a bye, and Brian Kelly has won eight of nine games in that spot. The Irish average 308 rushing yards per game and an amazing 6.9 yards per carry behind one of the best offensive lines in the country. While USC is playing to an average game grade of 99.7, the Irish are at 104.1 and rate as a five-point home edge due to the situation.
ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 37, USC 23
Coughlin: Before the season started, I made the prediction that USC wouldn't win the Pac-12 because of its schedule, and this was one game that stuck out to me. USC does not have a bye in its schedule, and now the Trojans fly to South Bend after getting taken to the brink by the Utah Utes, surviving a two-point conversion attempt in the last minute. The Irish are fresh off a bye and nice and rested as they wait for the Trojans. USC had to exert so much in this early part of the season, whether it was coming from behind to beat Western Michigan in Week 1, going to overtime with Texas, getting beat on the road at Wazzu or battling with Utah last week. It feels like we've seen all the punches USC has, and I'm not sure they have the depth and persistence to travel east and get this win. They have had some brutal injuries impacting their two-deep roster. I like the situation that Notre Dame is in here, as they have a College Football Playoff spot with their name on it if they win out. Expect an entertaining game with the home team winning and playing the hell out of that fight song.
ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 31, USC 23
Fallica: It just feels like Notre Dame is going to be the public side here, but I'm gonna land on the Trojans in what I think is solely a contrarian pick. The Trojans' last game as a 'dog provided their best performance last year (win at Washington), but this version of USC is a beat-up bunch. The Irish are rested and get Brandon Wimbush back. A win here gets the upcoming gauntlet of a schedule on the right foot. I don't like the game a ton, as I think Notre Dame is the better team, but I expect USC to make one last stand, reminding people they still are hanging around. Still, I think the Irish kick a late field goal to win but not cover.
ATS pick: USC
Score: Notre Dame 30, USC 28
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-6)
Steele: Wake Forest does well defending the option, as it has held Army to 335 yards per game over the past four years and held Tulane to 280 yards last year. Wake had a 97-yard edge versus Florida State, and the Deacons have a solid defensive front seven to take on the option. They are in a solid situation fresh off a bye, and they catch Georgia Tech in a Miami/Clemson sandwich and off a tough last-second loss at Miami where the Yellow Jackets were outgained by 200 yards.
ATS pick: Wake Forest
Score: Georgia Tech 21, Wake Forest 20
Fallica: Wake Forest has been idle since a tough two-game stretch versus FSU and Clemson in which the Demon Deacons played pretty well. The Jackets have to get up off the mat following last week's heartbreaking loss at Miami, but it won't be easy against a Wake Forest defense that is 16th nationally in rush defense EPA. There won't be many possessions in this one, so it likely will not take many stops -- nor many scores -- by Wake to stay within the number.
ATS pick: Wake Forest
Score: Georgia Tech 28, Wake Forest 24
Friday games
Marshall Thundering Herd (-2.5) at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Steele: Middle Tennessee will again be without Brent Stockstill. He had a 31-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio last year, while John Urzua has a 6-8 ratio this year. Marshall has been a moneymaker, going 5-1 versus the Vegas number with its only loss an 11-point win as a 14-point favorite. Thundering Herd quarterback Chase Litton has a 13-3 ratio, and the team's lone loss this year was to a powerful North Carolina State team on the road, getting outgained by just 34 yards. While both teams allow 3.5 yards per carry, Marshall gives up completions just 54 percent of the time and Middle Tennessee allows 64 percent. Middle Tennessee hasn't found a replacement for star running back I'Tavius Mathers, who had over 2,000 total yards and 20 touchdowns last year. I think Marshall will continue to roll along and grab the road win.
ATS pick: Marshall
Score: Marshall 24, Middle Tennessee State 14
Air Force Falcons (-7) at Nevada Wolf Pack
Fallica: We saw the Falcons stumble on the road as a slight favorite in the week prior to the Navy game, and here we are again, with Air Force laying a touchdown the week before hosting Army. Air Force had a huge comeback win last week over UNLV, but since starting 0-5, Nevada has been better in the past two weeks, beating Hawaii and losing by two at Colorado State after blowing an 11-point third-quarter lead.
ATS pick: Nevada
Score: Air Force 42, Nevada 38
Saturday games
Louisville Cardinals at Florida State Seminoles (-6.5)
Steele: Florida State is playing for revenge after getting beaten handily on the road in an embarrassing performance last year. While FSU is averaging just 18 points per game, the Seminoles are improving weekly and have topped 400 yards versus both Miami and Duke. Both of those teams are rated in my top-20 defenses, and Louisville is just No. 68. I look for the Seminoles offense to get rolling in this contest. In four ACC games, the Cardinals' defense is allowing 522 yards per game, which is 134 yards per game above their opponent's average. Florida State has faced the nation's toughest schedule, and Louisville has faced just the No. 57 toughest slate. People are wondering how Florida State will stay motivated this year after three losses? All Jimbo Fisher has to do is remind his team about the 63-20 loss last year and mention that Bobby Petrino said it could have been much worse.
ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Florida State 37, Louisville 23
Arizona State Sun Devils at Utah Utes (-9.5)
Steele: As I've mentioned many times, last year's Arizona State team was a banged-up squad that was down half of its starters at times, with 20 or more players on the weekly injury report. This week, they have just two players on the injury list. Quarterback Manny Wilkins is completing 67 percent of his passes with an 8-2 TD-INT ratio. Arizona State is battle-tested, as it has taken on Stanford, Washington and Oregon (with Justin Herbert at quarterback), along with San Diego State and Texas Tech in nonconference action. The Sun Devils have played my No. 5 toughest schedule and held a Washington team averaging 43 points per game to just seven points last week.
ATS pick: Arizona State
Score: Utah 24, Arizona State 23
Central Michigan Chippewas (-2.5) at Ball State Cardinals
Steele: Ball State is 1-7 over the past two years in MAC home games, and the visitor is 7-3 in the series. With quarterback Riley Neal healthy, Ball State was sitting at 2-1 with a close loss at Illinois. Jack Milas has been under center in the Cardinals' past three games and is completing just 52 percent of his passes -- and he has thrown six interceptions without a touchdown. Central Michigan is 9-3 versus the Vegas number as an away favorite and has Michigan transfer Shane Morris as its quarterback. Central Michigan has taken on the tougher schedule (No. 94 versus No. 119) and already has road wins at Kansas and Ohio this year.
ATS pick: Central Michigan
Score: Central Michigan 27, Ball State 17
Purdue Boilermakers (-9.5) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Total: 47
Coughlin: The Scarlet Knights are fresh off their first conference win since 2015, ending a 16-game losing streak, and they did so by notching a school record for rushing yards in a conference game. They welcome in Purdue, the most pleasant surprise of the Big Ten in 2017. The Boilermakers have shown so much life under first-year head coach Jeff Brohm. Before playing Wisconsin (their toughest opponent) last week, the Boilers were averaging close to 30 points per game, playing two quarterbacks (Elijah Sindelar and David Blough) and were easily the most improved team in the league, if not the country. Expect both offenses to play well and a lot of kickoffs in this game.
Pick: Over 47 total points
Score: Purdue 34, Rutgers 25
Arizona Wildcats (-3) at California Golden Bears
Coughlin: How about the turnaround for these two programs? Arizona has found lightning in a bottle since going to new quarterback Khalil Tate, who has rushed for over 550 yards in his past two games. That's insane. In the two games before that, he didn't even see the field. While plenty of people will go against Cal this week because a letdown is expected after their enormous upset of Washington State last week on national television, I am siding with the Bears because of their coaching staff -- led by first-year head coach Justin Wilcox -- and their defense. The Bears made the Cougars completely one-dimensional last week and forced seven turnovers. If they can dominate the Wazzu air attack like they did, then I would guess they could force the Wildcats into throwing situations with a quarterback who has only thrown 34 passes on the season. I'll take the home team getting points.
ATS pick: California
Score: California 34, Arizona 27
North Texas Mean Green at Florida Atlantic Owls (-3.5)
Coughlin: This is another game in which I like the situation one team has coming in. North Texas comes in off an awesome win over UTSA, in which it went 98 yards in the last minutes of the game to cap off an emotional victory. The Owls come in off a bye, and they've scored over 30 points in each of their past three games. They dealt with Hurricane Irma to start the season, all while playing tough opponents such as Navy and Wisconsin. In all, the Owls are averaging over 430 yards of offense and over 34 points per game. The Lane Kiffin/Kendal Briles system is in full effect. I think the week off helps them get ready for that Mean Green offensive machine, a unit that averages 499 yards of total offense.
ATS pick: Florida Atlantic
Score: Florida Atlantic 38, North Texas 31
No. 24 LSU Tigers (-7) at Ole Miss Rebels
Fallica: Prevalent thought is that LSU's season is salvaged after hard-fought wins at Florida and versus Auburn. Ole Miss got drilled by Auburn a couple weeks back and beat a struggling Vanderbilt team last week. This will be the best offensive skill that LSU has faced all season. We saw the Tigers struggle mightily at Mississippi State earlier this year, and I think this game could head down that same path again. Look for Shea Patterson and the Rebels' offense to put up some numbers and get some revenge for last year's 38-21 loss in Baton Rouge, especially after LSU coach Ed Orgeron's comments earlier this week.
ATS pick: Ole Miss
Score: Ole Miss 34, LSU 27
No. 10 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-7) at Texas Longhorns
Fallica: I think this Texas defense is better than the TCU defense that helped the Horned Frogs beat the Cowboys in Stillwater. I have a little concern about UT bouncing back following a tough loss to Oklahoma, but this team has quickly turned into a Tom Herman team, playing well in the role of an underdog. The Longhorns nearly pulled off the road upset over USC, as well as the upset last week over Oklahoma. Herman's track record as a 'dog is well known, and I expect the Texas defense to get enough stops and create enough offensively to again be right there in a position to win.
ATS pick: Texas
Score: Oklahoma State 37, Texas 34
No. 23 West Virginia Mountaineers (-9.5) at Baylor Bears
Fallica: The Bears got blown out last week in Stillwater by Oklahoma State, but I think coming home will do them good. After an 0-3 start and the season seemingly in the dumps, Baylor put forth its best effort of the year in a 49-41 loss to Oklahoma. I think the Bears are potentially going to beat someone this year, whether it's West Virginia this week or Texas next week. Matt Rhule is playing a bunch of young guys who will continue to get better. This is also a little bit of a dangerous spot for West Virginia, as the Mountaineers had a tough loss at TCU a couple weeks ago and a big comeback win last week over Texas Tech. Now comes another trip to Texas, followed by what the Mountaineers will view as a bigger game next week in Morgantown versus Oklahoma State. I'll take the home team and the points.
ATS pick: Baylor
Score: West Virginia 44, Baylor 38
Indiana Hoosiers at No. 18 Michigan State Spartans (-7)
Fallica: Michigan State has won its three Big Ten games by a combined 14 points, and I expect another close one here. Behind mobile quarterback Peyton Ramsey and NFL-caliber wide receiver Simmie Cobbs Jr., the Hoosiers should give Michigan State its best offensive test since the Notre Dame game. And don't sleep on the IU defense giving Michigan State some trouble, as well.
ATS pick: Indiana
Score: Michigan State 24, Indiana 20
