Best bets on Week 7 NFL games
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
It's Week 7 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Carolina Panthers (-3) at Chicago Bears
Total: 41
PickCenter public consensus pick: 75 percent on Carolina
Phil Steele's take: I had the Panthers as a Super Bowl contender coming into the season, with Cam Newton looking more like his 2015 version. I'll continue to stick with that assessment. I have picked the Bears all three times they have been a home 'dog this year, and they are 3-0 ATS in that role. Carolina is allowing just 280 yards per game, while leading the NFL in holding foes to 77 yards per game below their season average. Chicago actually has a solid defense as well, as the Bears have held foes to 52 yards per game below their respective season averages, which is fifth best in the NFL. I will pass on this matchup, as the Bears have the better run game and the Panthers have a clear edge at quarterback.
Pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: In what should be a really underrated game on the card this week, the Bears return home after an upset in Baltimore to host the extra-rested Panthers (they played last Thursday). One of the best rushing teams in the NFL over the past few years has suddenly been unable to run the football, as Carolina running backs recorded a paltry four yards on 12 carries last week and 28 yards on 21 carries the week before. There is hope they will have center Ryan Kalil for this game, which should help the run game. The Bears have pulled out a number of trick plays offensively to produce touchdowns, but it was their unfortunate luck to face the Minnesota Vikings and Baltimore Ravens defenses in Mitch Trubisky's first two starts. If Luke Kuechly is unable to go in this game, this Panthers defense isn't nearly as good as that of prior Bears opponents, and the Chicago offense could look better at home. The question is whether or not the Bears run out of offensive tricks.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay pick and prediction
Tennessee Titans (-6) at Cleveland Browns
Total: 45.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 71 percent on Tennessee
Phil Steele's take: Cleveland has opened the year at 0-6 with its only spread cover coming in the opener, when the Browns took on a rusty Le'Veon Bell and the Steelers (Pittsburgh backdoor cover on fourth-and-3 with 3:36 left on the clock). They now host the Titans and have rookie DeShone Kizer back under center (20th quarterback change for the Browns in the past 43 games). While Tennessee is coming off a Monday night game and traveling, they do have a bye on deck. Cleveland is heading to London next week. Tennessee put up 473 yards versus Indianapolis last week, and Marcus Mariota now has a game under his belt after returning from injury. The two teams are close statistically, but Cleveland has a 50-13 scoring edge in the fourth quarter when the game is out of reach, which skews a good portion of those stats. Last week, the Browns trailed Houston 33-3 before two fourth-quarter touchdowns. With the spread less than a touchdown, I'm not concerned about the late scoring.
ATS pick: Tennessee
Warren Sharp's take: After a highly entertaining game against the Indianapolis Colts on Monday night, the Titans have a short week to prepare for the reinsertion of Kizer into the Browns starting roster. Kizer was benched for the game last week, and in his place, Kevin Hogan was unimpressive. However, some of that burden must fall on head coach Hue Jackson, who has designed far too few passes to the short middle of the field, the softest and easiest place for successful completions. Everything was designed along the boundary for the quarterbacks, which requires pinpoint precision and passes, which are significantly more difficult for young quarterbacks. Marcus Mariota is recovering from his hamstring injury, and as long as he experiences no setbacks in his recovery, he should be able to pick apart this secondary. However, the Browns run defense is extremely sound (third best in the NFL), and it would be surprising to see the Titans have substantial success on the ground.
ATS pick: Lean on Cleveland
Mike Clay pick and prediction: Cleveland and the under (Tennessee 25, Cleveland 20)
New Orleans Saints (-4) at Green Bay Packers
Total: 47.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 59 percent on New Orleans
Phil Steele's take: Last week, Green Bay was favored by 6.5 in the preliminary lines for this weekend's game. The line has now moved to the Saints laying 5.5 points following the injury to Aaron Rodgers. Since the season began, I have felt the Packers were an average team with an outstanding quarterback potentially keeping them in the playoff hunt. New Orleans had its normal poor defense at the start of the year and lost to a pair of quality teams in Minnesota and New England. Their defense has allowed just 273 yards per game over the past three contests while accounting for a franchise-record three defensive touchdowns versus the Lions. Green Bay has averaged just 318 yards per game with Rodgers under center, while their defense is allowing just 326 yards per game. There were five defensive/special teams touchdowns last week in the New Orleans game, so the total appears to be inflated.
Pick: Under
Warren Sharp's take: Unfortunately for fans of the NFL, another star player was lost to injury in Rodgers this past week. This line swung from Packers -6.5 to as high as Saints -6 (a 12.5-point swing) before settling at its present spot. Rodgers is worth a tremendous amount, particularly against a great offense like that of the Saints, a game that should require the Packers to keep pace offensively. I have confidence in Brett Hundley's ability to step into an offense he knows quite well, but Mike McCarthy was adamant that he would modify the game plan enough so that Hundley won't carry the responsibility that Rodgers does. Does this mean more rushing? A slower pace? Fewer deep pass attempts? It's hard to know specifically what this offense will look like, and the Saints defense has played above their heads so far this year. With potential rain in the forecast and cooler temps, the Saints may run the ball more often themselves.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay pick and prediction: Over (New Orleans 26, Green Bay 22)
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 69 percent on Jacksonville
Phil Steele's take: Jacksonville has had an up-and-down season with every impressive win followed by a loss followed by another impressive win. Jacksonville has already gone on the road and has beaten Houston, Baltimore and Pittsburgh by an average of 27 points per game. Indianapolis has two wins, and they came against a pair of winless teams in Cleveland and San Francisco (both by three points). Leonard Fournette is expected to go here despite a minor ankle injury sustained a week ago against the Rams. The Jaguars' defense is holding foes to 312 yards per game while Indianapolis allows 410 yards per game, including allowing opponents 89 yards per game more than their season average. Following the previously mentioned pattern, I went against the Jaguars with success last week versus the Rams and will be supporting them again this weekend.
ATS pick: Jacksonville
Warren Sharp's take: The Colts do not have the explosiveness of the run game of the Titans, nor the passing game of the Los Angeles Rams. As such, the Colts won't be able to follow the model set forth earlier this year in getting the Jaguars out of their run mode -- which helps them protect themselves from Blake Bortles' passing game -- by jumping out to a big lead. The Colts bring the 28th-rated rushing offense against the 31st-rated Jaguars run defense. The difficult part about projecting this game is the status of Fournette, who is nursing an injury to a chronically troubled ankle. He's been the heart and soul of the Jaguars' success this season, and the team is extremely reliant upon his rushing prowess.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay pick and prediction: Jacksonville and the under (Jacksonville 24, Indianapolis 17)
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)
Total: 46.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 64 percent on Arizona
Phil Steele's take: Prior to this season, I had the Cardinals favored across the pond, but the Rams have been impressive and Arizona had disappointed prior to their offensive outburst last week against Tampa Bay. While the injury to David Johnson hampered the Cardinals' rush game throughout the season, the addition of Adrian Peterson (134 rushing yards in his debut) gives Arizona a more balanced offense once again. Although this is a must-win for Arizona, as they sit a game below Los Angeles in the standings, the Rams have two recent trips to London (including last year) under their belt, which has proved to be crucial. With Arizona posting just a 4-13 ATS run overall and heading to England for the first time, I like the Rams to get the job done in this one.
ATS pick: Los Angeles
Erin Rynning's take: The Rams produced 27 points last week in Jacksonville. However, in reality, they scored two special team touchdowns, while garnering just 249 total yards on offense. As the season has moved forward with a quick start for this Rams offense, it has been their defense catching up and becoming a dominating force. The Cardinals' offense woke up last week against a subpar and banged-up Tampa Bay defense generating 38 points. Nevertheless, this is still an offense that averaged 14.5 points in their previous four games (including two overtime wins) against mediocre competition.
Pick: Under
Warren Sharp's take: The Rams are more familiar with this trip to London, having done it last season, but the Cardinals feel rejuvenated with the insertion of Peterson to give them a threat of a run game to help their passing production. It worked out for them last week against the Buccaneers, but Tampa Bay's defense was injury riddled and ranked 31st, while the Rams defense is a top-10 overall defense, including sixth-best against the pass. A key component to this matchup is Patrick Peterson and his injured quad. He has been limited at practice this week. Both of these teams have performed well against bad opponents, but they have struggled against top-half teams, posting a combined 1-4 record on the season. With Arizona's fourth-best run defense likely limiting the success of Todd Gurley, it will be on Jared Goff to produce enough through the air to outscore the Cardinals.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay pick and prediction: Arizona and the under (Los Angeles 24, Arizona 22)
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3)
Total: 38
PickCenter public consensus pick: 57 percent on New York
Phil Steele's take: The Jets were expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this year but are sitting at 3-3 and nearly upset New England last week with a 408-375 yardage edge. They beat this same Miami team 20-6 back in week three with a 336-225 yardage edge. Miami knocked off Atlanta on the road last week, but their offense remains in the doldrums. They are averaging just 220 yards per game over the past four weeks and, for the season, have gained an average of 126 yards below what their foes usually allow (worst in the NFL). Miami has covered just 12 of their last 45 as a home favorite, and the Jets are 16-7 ATS as a division away 'dog, which could allow them to steal one this week in South Beach.
ATS pick: Lean on New York
Warren Sharp's take: The surprising story of this meeting has been the defensive performance of the Dolphins. They rank second best against the run, despite playing the fifth-toughest schedule of run offenses this year. Overall, the Dolphins have played the fourth-toughest schedule of offenses this year, and now they face the 27th-rated Jets offense. The other side of the ball is more convoluted. The Dolphins offense has been legitimately bad, ranking bottom five in most key metrics, while the Jets defense is substantially worse than in years past but is still having success holding opposing offenses to low point totals.
ATS pick: Lean on Miami
Mike Clay pick and prediction: New York (Miami 20, New York 18)
Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)
Total: 39
PickCenter public consensus pick: 59 percent on Minnesota
Phil Steele's take: Baltimore is being outgained by 42 yards per game, while Minnesota is outgaining their foes by 61 yards per game. Case Keenum has taken over for Sam Bradford due to injury, and his quarterback rating is better than Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco's. Keenum is completing 64 percent of his passes with a 5:1 TD-to-INT ratio. Flacco has just four touchdown passes and eight interceptions. Baltimore did win their most recent road game, but that was versus an Oakland team without Derek Carr. Last week, they got a 96-yard kick-return touchdown and a 77-yard punt-return touchdown but still lost at home to the Bears. The Vikings always have a solid home crowd and have won three of their four home games by 10 or more. Baltimore is 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games versus NFC teams, and Mike Zimmer is on a 10-3 ATS run versus the AFC.
ATS pick: Lean on Minnesota
Warren Sharp's take: The Ravens offense has been disastrous this season. Behind Flacco and an injury-riddled roster, this team's early success was the product of their defense, rather than their offense. The only silver lining is that the Ravens have played a brutal schedule of defenses, but the Vikings defense is far better than the last two Ravens' opponents (Oakland Raiders and Bears). If the Ravens don't make mistakes offensively, their defense is certainly good enough to take on the Vikings offense, which may legitimately be starting a backup quarterback, running back, WR1 and center. Pay close attention to defensive lineman Brandon Williams for the Ravens. If he plays, their run defense will be much better than it was in previous weeks.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay pick and prediction: Baltimore and the under (Minnesota 21, Baltimore 17)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (no line)
Total: N/A
PickCenter public consensus pick: N/A
Phil Steele's take: At the start of the year, I had Tampa Bay as a possible playoff team. Buffalo has been the more impressive team this year, with wins over Denver at home and against Atlanta on the road. The Bills are well-rested and have an 8-4 ATS mark after a bye. Tampa trailed Arizona last week 31-0 in the third quarter and lost quarterback Jameis Winston to injury. Buffalo is 7-0 ATS in its past seven games versus the NFC. However, Buffalo is minus-51 yards per game this year, while Tampa has been outgained by just 21. With Winston's status unclear heading into the weekend, I'll pass on this one.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay prediction: Buffalo 22, Cleveland 20
Dallas Cowboys (-6) at San Francisco 49ers
Total: 47
PickCenter public consensus pick: 70 percent on Dallas
Phil Steele's take: Dallas returns from a bye needing a win following a 2-3 start. While San Francisco enters this matchup winless, it's clearly worth mentioning that the 49ers became the first team in the NFL to lose five consecutive games by three points or fewer. It appears that San Francisco will be making a change under center in this one with rookie C.J. Beathard (245 passing yards last week versus Washington, helped overcome a 17-0 early deficit). With Dallas giving nearly a touchdown in this one and the 49ers' previously mentioned close matchups, I'll go ahead and pass on this matchup.
Pick: Pass
Erin Rynning's take: No question about this Dallas team, as the Cowboys' well-rounded offense remains their strength, as they averaged 29.7 PPG in their three contests heading into their bye week. This 49ers' regressing defense will have their hands full with the balance of the Cowboys, as they continue their youth movement with the recent release of NaVorro Bowman. Not shockingly, it has taken some time for the 49ers to adjust to the Kyle Shanahan offense, as they break in rookie quarterback Beathard this week after he threw for 245 yards off the bench last week. Beathard will serve as a bit of a wild card to the Cowboys defense, while his ability to keep plays alive with his legs serves as a major bonus for the 49ers offense.
Pick: Over
Warren Sharp's take: I projected the difficult schedule would be trouble for the Cowboys' offense to start the season, especially if Ezekiel Elliott was suspended. Elliott was not suspended, but the Cowboys remarkably are still 2-3, having lost as favorites of 2.5, 2.5 and 6 points. They should be able to get their run game going against a 49ers run defense that looks better than it is, thanks to the league's easiest schedule of rushing offenses faced. Meanwhile, the 49ers are making a change at quarterback, swapping in Beathard. When Beathard was in, he targeted Pierre Garcon eight times and made use of Carlos Hyde and George Kittle by targeting them six times each. Watching the film, it was clear to me that Beathard was comfortable spreading the ball around against a tough Redskins defense on the road, even without any first team practice reps. I'm looking forward to seeing how he looks at home against the Cowboys defense with a full week of practice.
ATS pick: Lean on San Francisco
Mike Clay pick and prediction: Over (Dallas 27, San Francisco 21)
Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) at New York Giants
Total: 40
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent on Seattle
Phil Steele's take: After a nightmarish start to the 2017 season that saw the Giants drop each of their first five matchups, some fortunate things fell in their favor last weekend in their upset victory over the Broncos (Denver had a 412-266 yardage edge but also had three turnovers and a pair of missed field goals). While they return home with a handful of starters remaining on the shelf, the Seahawks have had issues stringing together four consecutive quarters of consistent play to begin the year during their 3-2 start. Despite just a 3-7-1 ATS mark following their bye week, I have a small lean with the Seahawks in this one, as they've won and covered each of their past three meetings in this series (since 2011) with an 18-point average margin of victory.
ATS pick: Lean on Seattle
Erin Rynning's take: Brutal scheduling situation for the Giants, as they faced the Broncos in Denver coming off their bye week last Sunday night, with a potential bounce off their huge upset. Now the banged-up Giants will catch the Seahawks, who are returning from their off week. Note that the Broncos were bet to almost a two-touchdown favorite over the Giants last Sunday night. The Seahawks are simply better than the Broncos, and now we'll gain a discounted price for this Sunday afternoon matchup. The Giants caught the Broncos by surprise with a few major adjustments, but now the Seahawks will be able to adjust. The Seahawks' front-seven will overwhelm this Giants offense.
ATS pick: Seattle
Warren Sharp's take: The Giants pulled off the unlikely outright victory over the Broncos for their first win of the season and now must take on the Seahawks, who are off of a bye and two consecutive wins. None of the Seahawks' wins were in particularly dominant fashion, posting a narrow three-point home win over the 49ers, a second-half come-from-behind home win over Jacoby Brissett and the Colts and a six-point win over the Rams in a game they were thoroughly outplayed. After being embarrassed in their first two games, the Giants have played in close, competitive games the last four weeks. The problem for them will be actually scoring touchdowns over settling for field goals, as they rank 28th in red zone offense -- and the Seahawks have the NFL's best red zone defense. But the Seahawks offense ranks only 24th in the red zone against the third-easiest schedule, while the Giants have faced the NFL's best red zone offenses year to date.
ATS pick: Lean on New York
Mike Clay pick and prediction: New York and the under (Seattle 21, New York 17)
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)
Total: 40.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: Even
Phil Steele's take: The outcome of this game could be determined by whether the Steelers' solid offensive line can handle a nasty Cincinnati front four led by Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap. Cincinnati allows just 263 yards per game on defense, which is second best in the NFL (holding foes to 53 yards below their season average). The Steelers' defense has allowed just 272 yards per game, which is No. 3 in the NFL (holding foes to 71 yards per game below their season average). The total in this game is 41.5, and of the teams' combined 11 games this year, only once has a game gone over that total. I'll call for a low-scoring matchup at Heinz Field this weekend.
Pick: Lean on the under
Warren Sharp's take: Even though it is only Week 7, this is an extremely important game for the Bengals. A loss drops them to 2-4 and elevates the rival Steelers to 5-2 with a head-to-head leg up on Cincinnati. The Bengals are off of a bye, and these teams tend to have erratic performances from the norm when playing each other. For the Bengals, who made a switch to a new offensive coordinator, I think it is a good thing. They have faced the most difficult schedule of defenses this year. Even though the Steelers have a strong run defense, I like the odds of the Bengals outperforming their rushing expectation in this spot. The Bengals have not played particularly strong offenses so far this year, but they have a very underrated defense. In what could be a physical, defensive game, the points have a bit more value.
ATS pick: Cincinnati
Mike Clay pick and prediction: Cincinnati and the under (Pittsburgh 22, Cincinnati 18)
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (PK)
Total: 40.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 73 percent on Denver
Phil Steele's take: The Chargers are back in Los Angeles following their first two victories, against the Giants and Raiders. The Broncos, meanwhile, dropped a surprising home contest against the previously winless Giants, thanks to three turnovers and a pair of missed field goals (Denver had a 412-266 yardage edge). In their first meeting of the season, the Broncos jumped out to a 24-7 lead in the fourth quarter before a pair of late turnovers allowed the Chargers to pull within three at the end. With Denver now listed as a 'dog, following last weekend's performance, I see some value here, as the Chargers' home venue has seen the opposition's crowd take over on a regular basis, giving them absolutely no edge. With trips to Kansas City and Philadelphia on deck, this is clearly a must-win situation for the Broncos.
ATS pick: Denver
Warren Sharp's take: The Chargers have no home field advantage, and that's currently reflected in the line with the game being a pick 'em. After consistently dropping games in close fashion, the Chargers were able to squeak out narrow wins against the Giants and Raiders, in part by getting tight end Hunter Henry more involved (still not involved enough in my opinion) and reaping the benefits of his added efficiency to this offense. The big problem for the Chargers has been their run defense, which ranks 30th in the league, and now they must face the NFL's most efficient and successful rushing attack of the Broncos. There is little doubt that without Emmanuel Sanders the Broncos will be more committed to the run, and this matchup hinges on the Chargers' ability to stop Denver's run game. But the Broncos offense has not been extremely productive on the scoreboard, posting point totals of 16, 16 and 10 over the last three weeks. This Chargers offense is extremely talented and should be able to trade punches with the Broncos if this game does get off to a slow, lower scoring start.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay prediction: Los Angeles 21, Denver 20
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
It's Week 7 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Carolina Panthers (-3) at Chicago Bears
Total: 41
PickCenter public consensus pick: 75 percent on Carolina
Phil Steele's take: I had the Panthers as a Super Bowl contender coming into the season, with Cam Newton looking more like his 2015 version. I'll continue to stick with that assessment. I have picked the Bears all three times they have been a home 'dog this year, and they are 3-0 ATS in that role. Carolina is allowing just 280 yards per game, while leading the NFL in holding foes to 77 yards per game below their season average. Chicago actually has a solid defense as well, as the Bears have held foes to 52 yards per game below their respective season averages, which is fifth best in the NFL. I will pass on this matchup, as the Bears have the better run game and the Panthers have a clear edge at quarterback.
Pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: In what should be a really underrated game on the card this week, the Bears return home after an upset in Baltimore to host the extra-rested Panthers (they played last Thursday). One of the best rushing teams in the NFL over the past few years has suddenly been unable to run the football, as Carolina running backs recorded a paltry four yards on 12 carries last week and 28 yards on 21 carries the week before. There is hope they will have center Ryan Kalil for this game, which should help the run game. The Bears have pulled out a number of trick plays offensively to produce touchdowns, but it was their unfortunate luck to face the Minnesota Vikings and Baltimore Ravens defenses in Mitch Trubisky's first two starts. If Luke Kuechly is unable to go in this game, this Panthers defense isn't nearly as good as that of prior Bears opponents, and the Chicago offense could look better at home. The question is whether or not the Bears run out of offensive tricks.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay pick and prediction
Tennessee Titans (-6) at Cleveland Browns
Total: 45.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 71 percent on Tennessee
Phil Steele's take: Cleveland has opened the year at 0-6 with its only spread cover coming in the opener, when the Browns took on a rusty Le'Veon Bell and the Steelers (Pittsburgh backdoor cover on fourth-and-3 with 3:36 left on the clock). They now host the Titans and have rookie DeShone Kizer back under center (20th quarterback change for the Browns in the past 43 games). While Tennessee is coming off a Monday night game and traveling, they do have a bye on deck. Cleveland is heading to London next week. Tennessee put up 473 yards versus Indianapolis last week, and Marcus Mariota now has a game under his belt after returning from injury. The two teams are close statistically, but Cleveland has a 50-13 scoring edge in the fourth quarter when the game is out of reach, which skews a good portion of those stats. Last week, the Browns trailed Houston 33-3 before two fourth-quarter touchdowns. With the spread less than a touchdown, I'm not concerned about the late scoring.
ATS pick: Tennessee
Warren Sharp's take: After a highly entertaining game against the Indianapolis Colts on Monday night, the Titans have a short week to prepare for the reinsertion of Kizer into the Browns starting roster. Kizer was benched for the game last week, and in his place, Kevin Hogan was unimpressive. However, some of that burden must fall on head coach Hue Jackson, who has designed far too few passes to the short middle of the field, the softest and easiest place for successful completions. Everything was designed along the boundary for the quarterbacks, which requires pinpoint precision and passes, which are significantly more difficult for young quarterbacks. Marcus Mariota is recovering from his hamstring injury, and as long as he experiences no setbacks in his recovery, he should be able to pick apart this secondary. However, the Browns run defense is extremely sound (third best in the NFL), and it would be surprising to see the Titans have substantial success on the ground.
ATS pick: Lean on Cleveland
Mike Clay pick and prediction: Cleveland and the under (Tennessee 25, Cleveland 20)
New Orleans Saints (-4) at Green Bay Packers
Total: 47.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 59 percent on New Orleans
Phil Steele's take: Last week, Green Bay was favored by 6.5 in the preliminary lines for this weekend's game. The line has now moved to the Saints laying 5.5 points following the injury to Aaron Rodgers. Since the season began, I have felt the Packers were an average team with an outstanding quarterback potentially keeping them in the playoff hunt. New Orleans had its normal poor defense at the start of the year and lost to a pair of quality teams in Minnesota and New England. Their defense has allowed just 273 yards per game over the past three contests while accounting for a franchise-record three defensive touchdowns versus the Lions. Green Bay has averaged just 318 yards per game with Rodgers under center, while their defense is allowing just 326 yards per game. There were five defensive/special teams touchdowns last week in the New Orleans game, so the total appears to be inflated.
Pick: Under
Warren Sharp's take: Unfortunately for fans of the NFL, another star player was lost to injury in Rodgers this past week. This line swung from Packers -6.5 to as high as Saints -6 (a 12.5-point swing) before settling at its present spot. Rodgers is worth a tremendous amount, particularly against a great offense like that of the Saints, a game that should require the Packers to keep pace offensively. I have confidence in Brett Hundley's ability to step into an offense he knows quite well, but Mike McCarthy was adamant that he would modify the game plan enough so that Hundley won't carry the responsibility that Rodgers does. Does this mean more rushing? A slower pace? Fewer deep pass attempts? It's hard to know specifically what this offense will look like, and the Saints defense has played above their heads so far this year. With potential rain in the forecast and cooler temps, the Saints may run the ball more often themselves.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay pick and prediction: Over (New Orleans 26, Green Bay 22)
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 69 percent on Jacksonville
Phil Steele's take: Jacksonville has had an up-and-down season with every impressive win followed by a loss followed by another impressive win. Jacksonville has already gone on the road and has beaten Houston, Baltimore and Pittsburgh by an average of 27 points per game. Indianapolis has two wins, and they came against a pair of winless teams in Cleveland and San Francisco (both by three points). Leonard Fournette is expected to go here despite a minor ankle injury sustained a week ago against the Rams. The Jaguars' defense is holding foes to 312 yards per game while Indianapolis allows 410 yards per game, including allowing opponents 89 yards per game more than their season average. Following the previously mentioned pattern, I went against the Jaguars with success last week versus the Rams and will be supporting them again this weekend.
ATS pick: Jacksonville
Warren Sharp's take: The Colts do not have the explosiveness of the run game of the Titans, nor the passing game of the Los Angeles Rams. As such, the Colts won't be able to follow the model set forth earlier this year in getting the Jaguars out of their run mode -- which helps them protect themselves from Blake Bortles' passing game -- by jumping out to a big lead. The Colts bring the 28th-rated rushing offense against the 31st-rated Jaguars run defense. The difficult part about projecting this game is the status of Fournette, who is nursing an injury to a chronically troubled ankle. He's been the heart and soul of the Jaguars' success this season, and the team is extremely reliant upon his rushing prowess.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay pick and prediction: Jacksonville and the under (Jacksonville 24, Indianapolis 17)
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)
Total: 46.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 64 percent on Arizona
Phil Steele's take: Prior to this season, I had the Cardinals favored across the pond, but the Rams have been impressive and Arizona had disappointed prior to their offensive outburst last week against Tampa Bay. While the injury to David Johnson hampered the Cardinals' rush game throughout the season, the addition of Adrian Peterson (134 rushing yards in his debut) gives Arizona a more balanced offense once again. Although this is a must-win for Arizona, as they sit a game below Los Angeles in the standings, the Rams have two recent trips to London (including last year) under their belt, which has proved to be crucial. With Arizona posting just a 4-13 ATS run overall and heading to England for the first time, I like the Rams to get the job done in this one.
ATS pick: Los Angeles
Erin Rynning's take: The Rams produced 27 points last week in Jacksonville. However, in reality, they scored two special team touchdowns, while garnering just 249 total yards on offense. As the season has moved forward with a quick start for this Rams offense, it has been their defense catching up and becoming a dominating force. The Cardinals' offense woke up last week against a subpar and banged-up Tampa Bay defense generating 38 points. Nevertheless, this is still an offense that averaged 14.5 points in their previous four games (including two overtime wins) against mediocre competition.
Pick: Under
Warren Sharp's take: The Rams are more familiar with this trip to London, having done it last season, but the Cardinals feel rejuvenated with the insertion of Peterson to give them a threat of a run game to help their passing production. It worked out for them last week against the Buccaneers, but Tampa Bay's defense was injury riddled and ranked 31st, while the Rams defense is a top-10 overall defense, including sixth-best against the pass. A key component to this matchup is Patrick Peterson and his injured quad. He has been limited at practice this week. Both of these teams have performed well against bad opponents, but they have struggled against top-half teams, posting a combined 1-4 record on the season. With Arizona's fourth-best run defense likely limiting the success of Todd Gurley, it will be on Jared Goff to produce enough through the air to outscore the Cardinals.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay pick and prediction: Arizona and the under (Los Angeles 24, Arizona 22)
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3)
Total: 38
PickCenter public consensus pick: 57 percent on New York
Phil Steele's take: The Jets were expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this year but are sitting at 3-3 and nearly upset New England last week with a 408-375 yardage edge. They beat this same Miami team 20-6 back in week three with a 336-225 yardage edge. Miami knocked off Atlanta on the road last week, but their offense remains in the doldrums. They are averaging just 220 yards per game over the past four weeks and, for the season, have gained an average of 126 yards below what their foes usually allow (worst in the NFL). Miami has covered just 12 of their last 45 as a home favorite, and the Jets are 16-7 ATS as a division away 'dog, which could allow them to steal one this week in South Beach.
ATS pick: Lean on New York
Warren Sharp's take: The surprising story of this meeting has been the defensive performance of the Dolphins. They rank second best against the run, despite playing the fifth-toughest schedule of run offenses this year. Overall, the Dolphins have played the fourth-toughest schedule of offenses this year, and now they face the 27th-rated Jets offense. The other side of the ball is more convoluted. The Dolphins offense has been legitimately bad, ranking bottom five in most key metrics, while the Jets defense is substantially worse than in years past but is still having success holding opposing offenses to low point totals.
ATS pick: Lean on Miami
Mike Clay pick and prediction: New York (Miami 20, New York 18)
Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)
Total: 39
PickCenter public consensus pick: 59 percent on Minnesota
Phil Steele's take: Baltimore is being outgained by 42 yards per game, while Minnesota is outgaining their foes by 61 yards per game. Case Keenum has taken over for Sam Bradford due to injury, and his quarterback rating is better than Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco's. Keenum is completing 64 percent of his passes with a 5:1 TD-to-INT ratio. Flacco has just four touchdown passes and eight interceptions. Baltimore did win their most recent road game, but that was versus an Oakland team without Derek Carr. Last week, they got a 96-yard kick-return touchdown and a 77-yard punt-return touchdown but still lost at home to the Bears. The Vikings always have a solid home crowd and have won three of their four home games by 10 or more. Baltimore is 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games versus NFC teams, and Mike Zimmer is on a 10-3 ATS run versus the AFC.
ATS pick: Lean on Minnesota
Warren Sharp's take: The Ravens offense has been disastrous this season. Behind Flacco and an injury-riddled roster, this team's early success was the product of their defense, rather than their offense. The only silver lining is that the Ravens have played a brutal schedule of defenses, but the Vikings defense is far better than the last two Ravens' opponents (Oakland Raiders and Bears). If the Ravens don't make mistakes offensively, their defense is certainly good enough to take on the Vikings offense, which may legitimately be starting a backup quarterback, running back, WR1 and center. Pay close attention to defensive lineman Brandon Williams for the Ravens. If he plays, their run defense will be much better than it was in previous weeks.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay pick and prediction: Baltimore and the under (Minnesota 21, Baltimore 17)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (no line)
Total: N/A
PickCenter public consensus pick: N/A
Phil Steele's take: At the start of the year, I had Tampa Bay as a possible playoff team. Buffalo has been the more impressive team this year, with wins over Denver at home and against Atlanta on the road. The Bills are well-rested and have an 8-4 ATS mark after a bye. Tampa trailed Arizona last week 31-0 in the third quarter and lost quarterback Jameis Winston to injury. Buffalo is 7-0 ATS in its past seven games versus the NFC. However, Buffalo is minus-51 yards per game this year, while Tampa has been outgained by just 21. With Winston's status unclear heading into the weekend, I'll pass on this one.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay prediction: Buffalo 22, Cleveland 20
Dallas Cowboys (-6) at San Francisco 49ers
Total: 47
PickCenter public consensus pick: 70 percent on Dallas
Phil Steele's take: Dallas returns from a bye needing a win following a 2-3 start. While San Francisco enters this matchup winless, it's clearly worth mentioning that the 49ers became the first team in the NFL to lose five consecutive games by three points or fewer. It appears that San Francisco will be making a change under center in this one with rookie C.J. Beathard (245 passing yards last week versus Washington, helped overcome a 17-0 early deficit). With Dallas giving nearly a touchdown in this one and the 49ers' previously mentioned close matchups, I'll go ahead and pass on this matchup.
Pick: Pass
Erin Rynning's take: No question about this Dallas team, as the Cowboys' well-rounded offense remains their strength, as they averaged 29.7 PPG in their three contests heading into their bye week. This 49ers' regressing defense will have their hands full with the balance of the Cowboys, as they continue their youth movement with the recent release of NaVorro Bowman. Not shockingly, it has taken some time for the 49ers to adjust to the Kyle Shanahan offense, as they break in rookie quarterback Beathard this week after he threw for 245 yards off the bench last week. Beathard will serve as a bit of a wild card to the Cowboys defense, while his ability to keep plays alive with his legs serves as a major bonus for the 49ers offense.
Pick: Over
Warren Sharp's take: I projected the difficult schedule would be trouble for the Cowboys' offense to start the season, especially if Ezekiel Elliott was suspended. Elliott was not suspended, but the Cowboys remarkably are still 2-3, having lost as favorites of 2.5, 2.5 and 6 points. They should be able to get their run game going against a 49ers run defense that looks better than it is, thanks to the league's easiest schedule of rushing offenses faced. Meanwhile, the 49ers are making a change at quarterback, swapping in Beathard. When Beathard was in, he targeted Pierre Garcon eight times and made use of Carlos Hyde and George Kittle by targeting them six times each. Watching the film, it was clear to me that Beathard was comfortable spreading the ball around against a tough Redskins defense on the road, even without any first team practice reps. I'm looking forward to seeing how he looks at home against the Cowboys defense with a full week of practice.
ATS pick: Lean on San Francisco
Mike Clay pick and prediction: Over (Dallas 27, San Francisco 21)
Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) at New York Giants
Total: 40
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent on Seattle
Phil Steele's take: After a nightmarish start to the 2017 season that saw the Giants drop each of their first five matchups, some fortunate things fell in their favor last weekend in their upset victory over the Broncos (Denver had a 412-266 yardage edge but also had three turnovers and a pair of missed field goals). While they return home with a handful of starters remaining on the shelf, the Seahawks have had issues stringing together four consecutive quarters of consistent play to begin the year during their 3-2 start. Despite just a 3-7-1 ATS mark following their bye week, I have a small lean with the Seahawks in this one, as they've won and covered each of their past three meetings in this series (since 2011) with an 18-point average margin of victory.
ATS pick: Lean on Seattle
Erin Rynning's take: Brutal scheduling situation for the Giants, as they faced the Broncos in Denver coming off their bye week last Sunday night, with a potential bounce off their huge upset. Now the banged-up Giants will catch the Seahawks, who are returning from their off week. Note that the Broncos were bet to almost a two-touchdown favorite over the Giants last Sunday night. The Seahawks are simply better than the Broncos, and now we'll gain a discounted price for this Sunday afternoon matchup. The Giants caught the Broncos by surprise with a few major adjustments, but now the Seahawks will be able to adjust. The Seahawks' front-seven will overwhelm this Giants offense.
ATS pick: Seattle
Warren Sharp's take: The Giants pulled off the unlikely outright victory over the Broncos for their first win of the season and now must take on the Seahawks, who are off of a bye and two consecutive wins. None of the Seahawks' wins were in particularly dominant fashion, posting a narrow three-point home win over the 49ers, a second-half come-from-behind home win over Jacoby Brissett and the Colts and a six-point win over the Rams in a game they were thoroughly outplayed. After being embarrassed in their first two games, the Giants have played in close, competitive games the last four weeks. The problem for them will be actually scoring touchdowns over settling for field goals, as they rank 28th in red zone offense -- and the Seahawks have the NFL's best red zone defense. But the Seahawks offense ranks only 24th in the red zone against the third-easiest schedule, while the Giants have faced the NFL's best red zone offenses year to date.
ATS pick: Lean on New York
Mike Clay pick and prediction: New York and the under (Seattle 21, New York 17)
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)
Total: 40.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: Even
Phil Steele's take: The outcome of this game could be determined by whether the Steelers' solid offensive line can handle a nasty Cincinnati front four led by Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap. Cincinnati allows just 263 yards per game on defense, which is second best in the NFL (holding foes to 53 yards below their season average). The Steelers' defense has allowed just 272 yards per game, which is No. 3 in the NFL (holding foes to 71 yards per game below their season average). The total in this game is 41.5, and of the teams' combined 11 games this year, only once has a game gone over that total. I'll call for a low-scoring matchup at Heinz Field this weekend.
Pick: Lean on the under
Warren Sharp's take: Even though it is only Week 7, this is an extremely important game for the Bengals. A loss drops them to 2-4 and elevates the rival Steelers to 5-2 with a head-to-head leg up on Cincinnati. The Bengals are off of a bye, and these teams tend to have erratic performances from the norm when playing each other. For the Bengals, who made a switch to a new offensive coordinator, I think it is a good thing. They have faced the most difficult schedule of defenses this year. Even though the Steelers have a strong run defense, I like the odds of the Bengals outperforming their rushing expectation in this spot. The Bengals have not played particularly strong offenses so far this year, but they have a very underrated defense. In what could be a physical, defensive game, the points have a bit more value.
ATS pick: Cincinnati
Mike Clay pick and prediction: Cincinnati and the under (Pittsburgh 22, Cincinnati 18)
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (PK)
Total: 40.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 73 percent on Denver
Phil Steele's take: The Chargers are back in Los Angeles following their first two victories, against the Giants and Raiders. The Broncos, meanwhile, dropped a surprising home contest against the previously winless Giants, thanks to three turnovers and a pair of missed field goals (Denver had a 412-266 yardage edge). In their first meeting of the season, the Broncos jumped out to a 24-7 lead in the fourth quarter before a pair of late turnovers allowed the Chargers to pull within three at the end. With Denver now listed as a 'dog, following last weekend's performance, I see some value here, as the Chargers' home venue has seen the opposition's crowd take over on a regular basis, giving them absolutely no edge. With trips to Kansas City and Philadelphia on deck, this is clearly a must-win situation for the Broncos.
ATS pick: Denver
Warren Sharp's take: The Chargers have no home field advantage, and that's currently reflected in the line with the game being a pick 'em. After consistently dropping games in close fashion, the Chargers were able to squeak out narrow wins against the Giants and Raiders, in part by getting tight end Hunter Henry more involved (still not involved enough in my opinion) and reaping the benefits of his added efficiency to this offense. The big problem for the Chargers has been their run defense, which ranks 30th in the league, and now they must face the NFL's most efficient and successful rushing attack of the Broncos. There is little doubt that without Emmanuel Sanders the Broncos will be more committed to the run, and this matchup hinges on the Chargers' ability to stop Denver's run game. But the Broncos offense has not been extremely productive on the scoreboard, posting point totals of 16, 16 and 10 over the last three weeks. This Chargers offense is extremely talented and should be able to trade punches with the Broncos if this game does get off to a slow, lower scoring start.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay prediction: Los Angeles 21, Denver 20
