How to bet Atlanta-New England
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
10/22/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Sunday night's tilt between the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bet.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday afternoon.
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (-3)
Total: 56.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent on Atlanta
Phil Steele
A rematch of last year's classic Super Bowl that saw the Patriots win in overtime after the Falcons blew a 28-3 lead in the third quarter. After being a solid home favorite the past two years with a 9-3-3 ATS mark, New England has fallen on hard times this season in Foxborough with an 0-3 ATS mark, which includes outright defeats by Kansas City and Carolina. The Falcons, meanwhile, jumped out to a 17-0 lead last week against Miami before watching the Dolphins score 20 unanswered in the come-from-behind win. While both teams have been a bit shaky in the overall victory category, each remain in the upper half of the league in scoring offense. With New England giving up an eye-popping 36 points per game so far at home, I'm expecting another high-scoring affair.
ATS pick: lean on over 56.5
Erin Rynning
The Patriots will attempt to top their epic comeback performance from last year's Super Bowl, and unfortunately for the Falcons they'll have even more offensive weapons. Of course, the Patriots played without All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski in last year's big game, while adding running back Mike Gillislee and WR Brandin Cooks in the offseason. The score was kept down in the Falcons' past two games, but Buffalo and Miami, their opponents, were void of a passing game. Meanwhile, the Patriots' defense features a banged-up secondary, while the leaky unit is allowing 26.5 points per game. This total was playable earlier in the week at 55 or less as that number most likely doesn't return.
ATS pick: Lean over and playable at 55 or less
Warren Sharp
The Patriots' defense was bad last season, despite being the highly inconsequential title of "No. 1 scoring defense in points allowed." The Falcons' offense has played a difficult schedule of defenses year to date, and in the past three weeks, have played three run defenses that rank inside the top 11. That will change tremendously when they get to take on the 23rd-rated run defense of the Patriots, which has played four straight games against run offenses that rank 16th or worse.
Atlanta's pass offense isn't nearly as strong or as explosive (17th) as was the unit that performed well last year and in the Super Bowl against the Patriots. However, they should be able to run the ball and produce. The key is to not let the Patriots jump out to a big lead. Atlanta's defense ranks a mere 27th, but it has played the fifth-easiest schedule of offenses. This game has all the makings of a back-and-forth battle, but neither team is as strong as they were when they met in the Super Bowl.
ATS pick: pass
Mike Clay
ATS pick: New England and the over --- NE -3.5, 55
Prediction: New England 30, Atlanta 26
Parolin's prop bets
24 completions by Matt Ryan (O/U -110)
It as been a bumpy transition from Kyle Shanahan to Steve Sarkisian, with Matt Ryan throwing six touchdowns and six interceptions through five games this season. Ryan has thrown exactly 24 completions in three straight games against the Lions, Bills and Dolphins -- the latter two of which weren't exactly shootouts. The Falcons scored 17 points and held each to 23 or fewer, game scripts that are unlikely to be duplicated Sunday night in Foxborough. Tom Brady is the league's leading passer, New England is in the top five in scoring offense again (more on that in a moment), and they're at home. Ryan is going to have to keep up.
The good news? This is a Patriots pass defense that struggles with both volume and efficiency. Only the Eagles have allowed more completions than the Patriots, both total and on a per-game basis. New England has allowed 26 completions per game to Alex Smith, Drew Brees, Deshaun Watson, Cam Newton, Jameis Winston and Josh McCown. Of that group, only Brees is in the top five in completions per game. New England has also allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 66.4 percent of passes this year, 26th in the league. There's a reason they're the first team in NFL history to allow 300 yards in six straight games at any point of the season -- they've played only six games.
The play: Over
29.5 points by Patriots (O/U -110)
Consider Tom Brady was 27-of-36 for 282 yards and two touchdowns, and the Patriots' offense put up 336 yards and scored 31 points all after halftime of Super Bowl LI. It's well documented that New England trailed 28-3 as late as the 2:07 mark of the third quarter. From then on, the Patriots' offense could not be stopped.
Brady certainly hasn't slowed at 40 years old. He leads the league in passing (averaging more than 326 yards per game), and few teams own their home venue better than the Patriots control Gillette Stadium. This year, the Patriots are averaging 31 points per game at home, with the only "under" in a Week 1 loss to Kansas City (27 points). Since Brady returned from his four-game suspension last year, New England has scored at least 30 points in seven of 10 home games and never been held under 24. Who are the defenses that limited Brady? Chiefs, Seahawks and Rams -- all of which rank higher in points per game allowed since 2016 than the Falcons (24.5, 25th in NFL).
The play: Over
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
10/22/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Sunday night's tilt between the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bet.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday afternoon.
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (-3)
Total: 56.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent on Atlanta
Phil Steele
A rematch of last year's classic Super Bowl that saw the Patriots win in overtime after the Falcons blew a 28-3 lead in the third quarter. After being a solid home favorite the past two years with a 9-3-3 ATS mark, New England has fallen on hard times this season in Foxborough with an 0-3 ATS mark, which includes outright defeats by Kansas City and Carolina. The Falcons, meanwhile, jumped out to a 17-0 lead last week against Miami before watching the Dolphins score 20 unanswered in the come-from-behind win. While both teams have been a bit shaky in the overall victory category, each remain in the upper half of the league in scoring offense. With New England giving up an eye-popping 36 points per game so far at home, I'm expecting another high-scoring affair.
ATS pick: lean on over 56.5
Erin Rynning
The Patriots will attempt to top their epic comeback performance from last year's Super Bowl, and unfortunately for the Falcons they'll have even more offensive weapons. Of course, the Patriots played without All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski in last year's big game, while adding running back Mike Gillislee and WR Brandin Cooks in the offseason. The score was kept down in the Falcons' past two games, but Buffalo and Miami, their opponents, were void of a passing game. Meanwhile, the Patriots' defense features a banged-up secondary, while the leaky unit is allowing 26.5 points per game. This total was playable earlier in the week at 55 or less as that number most likely doesn't return.
ATS pick: Lean over and playable at 55 or less
Warren Sharp
The Patriots' defense was bad last season, despite being the highly inconsequential title of "No. 1 scoring defense in points allowed." The Falcons' offense has played a difficult schedule of defenses year to date, and in the past three weeks, have played three run defenses that rank inside the top 11. That will change tremendously when they get to take on the 23rd-rated run defense of the Patriots, which has played four straight games against run offenses that rank 16th or worse.
Atlanta's pass offense isn't nearly as strong or as explosive (17th) as was the unit that performed well last year and in the Super Bowl against the Patriots. However, they should be able to run the ball and produce. The key is to not let the Patriots jump out to a big lead. Atlanta's defense ranks a mere 27th, but it has played the fifth-easiest schedule of offenses. This game has all the makings of a back-and-forth battle, but neither team is as strong as they were when they met in the Super Bowl.
ATS pick: pass
Mike Clay
ATS pick: New England and the over --- NE -3.5, 55
Prediction: New England 30, Atlanta 26
Parolin's prop bets
24 completions by Matt Ryan (O/U -110)
It as been a bumpy transition from Kyle Shanahan to Steve Sarkisian, with Matt Ryan throwing six touchdowns and six interceptions through five games this season. Ryan has thrown exactly 24 completions in three straight games against the Lions, Bills and Dolphins -- the latter two of which weren't exactly shootouts. The Falcons scored 17 points and held each to 23 or fewer, game scripts that are unlikely to be duplicated Sunday night in Foxborough. Tom Brady is the league's leading passer, New England is in the top five in scoring offense again (more on that in a moment), and they're at home. Ryan is going to have to keep up.
The good news? This is a Patriots pass defense that struggles with both volume and efficiency. Only the Eagles have allowed more completions than the Patriots, both total and on a per-game basis. New England has allowed 26 completions per game to Alex Smith, Drew Brees, Deshaun Watson, Cam Newton, Jameis Winston and Josh McCown. Of that group, only Brees is in the top five in completions per game. New England has also allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 66.4 percent of passes this year, 26th in the league. There's a reason they're the first team in NFL history to allow 300 yards in six straight games at any point of the season -- they've played only six games.
The play: Over
29.5 points by Patriots (O/U -110)
Consider Tom Brady was 27-of-36 for 282 yards and two touchdowns, and the Patriots' offense put up 336 yards and scored 31 points all after halftime of Super Bowl LI. It's well documented that New England trailed 28-3 as late as the 2:07 mark of the third quarter. From then on, the Patriots' offense could not be stopped.
Brady certainly hasn't slowed at 40 years old. He leads the league in passing (averaging more than 326 yards per game), and few teams own their home venue better than the Patriots control Gillette Stadium. This year, the Patriots are averaging 31 points per game at home, with the only "under" in a Week 1 loss to Kansas City (27 points). Since Brady returned from his four-game suspension last year, New England has scored at least 30 points in seven of 10 home games and never been held under 24. Who are the defenses that limited Brady? Chiefs, Seahawks and Rams -- all of which rank higher in points per game allowed since 2016 than the Falcons (24.5, 25th in NFL).
The play: Over
