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Thread: Series PLay

  1. #1 Series PLay 
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    Astros Series +150 Going to be scorchers for the first 2 games in LA(especially Game 1). The winds might shift mid-game from coming in toward the plate to going out to the fences later on. Keuchel keeps the ball down very well, and so Kershaw might have more of an issue with HRs. Still…I doubt it really effects the outcome all that much. Kershaw may be the best pitcher in the MLB the last many years, but has often faded in his post-season starts.

    I really like the Astros at this number considering home field advantage is less so in baseball than in football and B-ball. The Dodgers might have a very slight edge in this series, so +150 seems generous. I also like the make-up of this Astros team. They played incredibly well on the road all year, scoring more runs away than the 2nd place hitting team by almost 100 runs. They never went into a long losing streak, recovered nicely from the 3 games in Yankee Stadium, and don't have any big flaws. Their bullpen is average, but AJ Hinch has reliable starters available to fill in the gap as we could see with Mccullers in Game 7. They can hit for power, have the fewest strikeouts of any MLB team this year, and have decent speed on the base paths.

    The pressure is on the Dodgers being a media darling, being in LA where Dodgers fans expect winning, and having the huge payroll. They might have also had the benefit of a somewhat down NL this year, with few equals other than the Nats. NL West pitching was also mediocre, although the Astros stats did have the benefit of the DH. I just think the Astros have had to fight harder for wins this year, and even though Hurricane Harvey has no real effect on the series, can't you see the story at the end…"Houston Wins Series for a Town that Needed Some Good News"? In reality, Houston really does need something to cheer about, and they love their Astros.
    Smaller Play: Altuve wins MVP +785 He's a gamer, and has more big hits this year than anyone in baseball.
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  2. #2  
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    Good writeup.

    I'm worried about Houston hitting on the road in the playoffs though. They've played at two batter-friendly parks in Fenway and Yankee Stadium and only scored 3, 5, 1, 4, 0 runs in five games on the road in playoffs.

    Dodgers is statistically a Top 7 (of 30) pitchers park
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  3. #3  
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    Respectfully disagree but baseball does have the most significant home field advantage. Only sport that doesn't have a clock and the home team always has the last at bat.
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  4. #4  
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    Quote Originally Posted by r.a. View Post
    Respectfully disagree but baseball does have the most significant home field advantage. Only sport that doesn't have a clock and the home team always has the last at bat.
    Not sure what no clock gives the home team as an advantage. In various studies on home advantage, the NBA and the NFL come out ahead of baseball and the NHL. Players and refs get more caught up in the emotion of the game, and fan proximity to the field/court/ place of action is another factor. Batting last, with bullpens as good as they have been in recent decades, is not the advantage it used to be.
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  5. #5  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ShortBusDriver7 View Post
    Good writeup.

    I'm worried about Houston hitting on the road in the playoffs though. They've played at two batter-friendly parks in Fenway and Yankee Stadium and only scored 3, 5, 1, 4, 0 runs in five games on the road in playoffs.

    Dodgers is statistically a Top 7 (of 30) pitchers park
    Small sample size, but I do think the Astros lineup, top to bottom, is better. If they hit as bad as they did in Yankee Stadium, though, they're toast. Don't think they will.
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  6. #6  
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    small sample size but it's the entire playoffs thus far. Different animal, just like you used to illustrate your perception that Kershaw is different in the postseason
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  7. #7  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ShortBusDriver7 View Post
    small sample size but it's the entire playoffs thus far. Different animal, just like you used to illustrate your perception that Kershaw is different in the postseason
    True, but Houston might win with 3,4 or 5 runs due to their pitching. As for Kershaw, I expect he'll pitch well more likely than not, because he's proven himself over the past many seasons. Great stuff. Likewise, the Astros will more likely hit like they did over a 162 game season than 5 road playoff games. They are a very tough lineup to get through for any pitcher.
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  8. #8  
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    Only 1 tonight. Struggles continue. Hill is the favorite tmrw over Verlander. Pretty interesting
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  9. #9  
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    Thank you Charlie Morton. Did not predict his major role in this.
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