Randall the Handle
THE REST
Bears (3-4) at Saints (4-2)
LINE: NEW ORLEANS by 9
The Bears have won back-to-back games despite rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky throwing for 113 and 107 yards respectively. That’s equivalent to the soccer team that won the championship a couple years ago without having a shot on goal in the final. Trubisky completed just four passes in Chicago’s win over Carolina last week. The Bears had just two first downs in the second half, both in the fourth quarter while trying to kill clock. You get the picture. It is nearly impossible to sustain success with those type of numbers. It will be even more challenging against one of the league’s hottest teams as the Saints have won four straight. However, the Bears are playing good defence and that goes a long way when taking an abundance of points. Also not sure if New Orleans may have caught some teams in difficult situations during win streak.
TAKING: BEARS +9
Falcons (3-3) at Jets (3-4)
LINE: ATLANTA by 4
Let’s not fool ourselves. This is not last year’s Atlanta team. The team obviously misses offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan as the Falcons have hit a scoring drought when compiling just 41 points combined over their past three games. Now they will be asked to give away road points when playing the second leg of consecutive road games. We’re not anxious to be doing that. The Jets have been a pleasant surprise this season after many deemed them to be the league’s worst team. Todd Bowles’ club had won three straight before succumbing to the Patriots in a close one and then dropping an overtime contest to the Dolphins last week. But this is a good matchup to rebound. Jets will pound their running backs and utilize emerging tight-end against Atlanta’s softish secondary. Falcons could also be flat after hype of Super Bowl rematch last week. Jets cashing tickets as a home dog with seven covers in previous 10 when taking points here.
TAKING: JETS +4
Panthers (4-3) at Bucs (2-4)
LINE: TAMPA BAY by 2
Would the real Cam Newton please stand up? Hard to handicap the Panthers these days as Cam’s inconsistencies near impossible to predict. Even so, we’re going to give a slight lean to the erratic thrower’s side as Tampa Bay has its own issues. Most notably is an injury to QB Jameis Winston who did not practice in early part of week. We’re also encouraged by the return of Carolina LB Luke Kuechly after he missed last week’s game with a concussion. Led by Kuechly, Panthers’ defence quietly ranks third in league in yards allowed while being fourth best in both rushing and passing yards permitted. Conversely, Tampa’s stop unit ranks a disappointing 30th overall on defence and that should help Newton & Co. get back on track. Bucs have just one cover in previous five games while Panthers have been stellar on road with 5-1 ATS mark as guests.
TAKING: PANTHERS +2
49ers (0-7) at Eagles (6-1)
LINE: PHILADELPHIA by 13
The talk of the 49ers losing a five-set of games by close margins is out the window after getting their doors blown off in 40-10 dismantling at home to Dallas. Now this undermanned squad will travel clear across the U.S. to play an early game against the NFC’s top squad and it will be San Fran’s fourth road game in five weeks. The Niners chose to give rookie QB C.J. Beathard a look and while he wasn’t a complete dud in last week’s loss, he didn’t impress much either. The Niners have some hurts and it may be time for them to be thinking of next year’s draft as they battle the Browns for league ineptitude. The Eagles just keep on winning and we hardly expect them to take the foot off the gas pedal as Cowboys and Redskins are not far enough out of rear view mirror. Garbage time points always a concern but we’ll overlook it in this mismatch.
TAKING: EAGLES –13
Raiders (3-4) at Bills (4-2)
LINE: BUFFALO by 2½
The Bills have only failed to cover in one game this season (top money maker in NFL). Are oddsmakers miscalculating this unheralded team? We’re beginning to think so. Buffalo has not lost at home in three tries this season. They’ll be playing an early game against an Oakland team flying in from the west coast. It’s also a Raiders team that was one play away from losing five straight before squeezing out a bizarre and controversial win in Kansas City on final play of game. The Raiders only road win this year was opening week at Tennessee. Of greater concern is the subpar linebacker play of this visitor and it would not surprise to see LeSean McCoy do some damage both running and catching passes out of the backfield against this forgiving unit. The Bills defence is playing at a high level and +10 in takeaways demonstrates their feistiness. Raiders just 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in past five as road underdog.
TAKING: BILLS -2½
Colts (2-5) at Bengals (2-4)
LINE: CINCINNATI by 11
No defence has been as useless as this Indianapolis group. Still, we can’t bring ourselves to give away double-digits with goofy Bengals. Cincinnati has not been asked to spot more than five points this season and the only time at that price, they lost straight up to Houston. Cincy’s coaching staff is coming under fire after strange play calling in loss to Steelers as top, runner Joe Mixon had only seven carries all game while Andy Dalton was getting crunched throughout afternoon with poor protection. The Colts have been horrid but even poor teams have a tendency to bounce back after embarrassing outings (Indy shut out at home to Jacksonville last week). History shows that double-digit underdogs after a double-digit loss are 106-83-4 vs. spread while underdogs that were just shutout at home have covered 18 of past 26 when it occurs. Bengals have managed just eight covers in past 20 after facing Pittsburgh and few if any were in this price range.
TAKING: COLTS +11
Texans (3-3) at Seahawks (4-2)
LINE: SEATTLE by 5½
Houston might be the sentimental choice here with the league starving for good, young quarterbacks and Deshaun Watson’s arrival appearing to fulfill the need. However, this will be the youngster’s toughest task to date as he’ll head to Seattle to face a Seahawks’ teams that is currently playing lights out on defence. The Seahawks are allowing a league-low 15.7 points per game and that’s after playing four of first six on the road. While Seattle’s offence is much maligned, Russell Wilson’s 243 yards per game passing ranks 11th overall while other offensive categories find the Seabirds around the middle of the pack or better. Tight end play has been week with Jimmy Graham looking more like Jimmy Fallon but Wilson is savvy enough to make it up in other ways. Houston has lost to contenders New England and Kansas City. This opponent ranks with that duo.
TAKING: SEAHAWKS –5½
Steelers (5-2) at Lions (3-3)
LINE: PITTSBURGH by 3
The Lions had won three of four before losing three of four so which team returns from its bye remains to be seen. Still, we prefer the rested home side taking points despite recently improved play of Steelers. Detroit needed the time off as QB Matthew Stafford was dealing with a rib issue and his production had dropped off from the start of the season in a couple of losses before this break. The Lions are being undervalued here because of that mini-slump combined with Pittsburgh’s uptick. The Leos have also performed well after their rest, currently on a 5-0 ATS run upon returning from bye. This is also when the Steelers typically fail. They are on the road where they lost at Chicago and struggled with the Browns in a narrow win. With overrated Mike Tomlin as head man, his team has covered just 11 of previous 35 as road chalk.
TAKING: LIONS +3
Broncos (3-3) at Chiefs (5-2)
LINE: KANSAS CITY by 7
This week’s overreaction game. The Broncos cannot be a full touchdown underdog to this rival. The past three seasons has never experienced a spread above 3½ points in this series. We’re well aware of Denver’s failure to score points recently but that has presented us with this ‘buy low’ opportunity. We’re well aware of the Broncos’ impotency on offence, having scored just 42 points over their past four games. However, Denver still ranks 15th in both passing and total yards. The end zone has been foreign but facing Kansas City’s 29th ranked defence (yards allowed) should ease that burden. In addition, haven’t the Chiefs dropped back to back games? Last week’s defeat to Oakland also featured a divisional foe that entered the game suffering from recent offensive production before Derek Carr threw for 417 yards and three majors. Denver’s defence remains a top unit, certainly more than worthy of taking back this offering.
TAKING: BRONCOS +7
