Monday 10/30/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Requests Etc.

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Soccer

Italy – Serie A

3:45pm ET

Verona v Inter

Last Head-To-Heads at Verona:
3-3
0-3 (inter win)
0-2 (Inter win)
0-3 (Inter win)

Recent Form:
Verona: 1-3-2
Inter: 4-0-2

KEY STAT: Inter are unbeaten in 12 league games

EXPERT VERDICT: Verona have endured a tough start to their return to the Italian top-flight and a visit from undefeated Inter could see their struggles continue. The Yellow and Blues had enough to brush aside basement boys Benevento (1-0) in their last home match but prior to that had failed to score in defeats to Lazio and Fiorentina and should be punished by the visitors, who have shipped just three times on their travels.

RECOMMENDATION: Inter to win 2-0 (1)
 

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Soccer

England – Premier League

4pm ET


Burnley v Newcastle

Referee: Mike Dean

Last Head-To-Heads at Burnley:
1-1
1-0 (Burnley win)
3-2 (Burnley win)
1-0 (Burnley win)

Recent Form:
Burnley: 1-1-4
Newcastle: 3-1-2

KEY STAT: Burnley have won only one of their last seven games

EXPERT VERDICT: Newcastle continue to make huge strides under the experienced Rafael Benitez and the high-flying Magpies can extend their unbeaten run to four league games with victory at Turf Moor. Benitez’s troops kicked off their campaign with back-to-back league defeats but they have been on an upward curve since and are defending brilliantly.

RECOMMENDATION: Newcastle (1)
 

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Soccer

Spain – La Liga

4pm ET


Espanyol v Real Betis

Last Head-To-Heads at Espanyol:
2-1 (Espanyol win)
0-3 (Real Betis win)
0-0
1-0 (Espanyol win)

Recent Form:
Espanyol: 1-1-4
Real betis: 4-1-1

KEY STAT: Espanyol have won only two of their last seven home league games

EXPERT VERDICT: Real Betis struggled on their travels last term but a 1-0 win at champions Real Madrid followed by a thrilling 4-4 draw at Sociedad suggests their road woes may finally be behind them. Quique Setien's troops have have notched 13 times in their last four league games and goal-shy Espanyol, who have scored only once in four matches, could find lively Betis too hot to handle.

RECOMMENDATION: Betis (2)
 

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park

Laurel Park - Race 1

EXACTA, TRIFECTA &DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 1-2) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (RACES 1-2-3) / 50 cent PICK 5 (RACES 1-2-3-4-5) $1.00 SUPER HIGH 5


Maiden Special • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 82 • Purse: $40,000 • Post: 12:30
(PLUS UP TO 30% MBF) FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * STUBOLT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ZESTFUL: Horse ranks in the top three in Tr ackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. MILLIONAIRE RUNNER: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SALT AIR: Horse ranks in t he top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
5
STUBOLT
2/1

3/1
3
ZESTFUL
3/1

7/1
4
MILLIONAIRE RUNNER
7/2

7/1
2
SALT AIR
5/2

9/1
 

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ajax Downs

Ajax Downs - Race 4

Exactor / Triactor / Pick 4 (Races 4-5-6-7)


Starter Allowance $25,000 • 300 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $16,000 • Post: 2:10P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS SINCE OCTOBER 1, 2015. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * ARCTIC FAME: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. ROCKIN MISS KITTY: Quarter Horse has a Fast Bre ak Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MEMORIES TIMES SIX: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the t op three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. THE DOMINYUNATOR: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
2
ARCTIC FAME
8/5

7/2
4
ROCKIN MISS KITTY
2/1

5/1
3
MEMORIES TIMES SIX
5/2

5/1
1
THE DOMINYUNATOR
3/1

7/1
 

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The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $9100 Class Rating: 84

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 30 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 3 WORLD ELITE 7/2

# 9 HOTSPUR HARRIET 6/1

# 8 QUEEB 10/1

I've got to go with WORLD ELITE. Has run well when racing a dirt sprint race. Will most likely be one of the leaders of the bunch going into the halfway point of the affair. Seems to have a solid class edge based on the latest company kept. HOTSPUR HARRIET - Had one of the most competitive speed figures of this group in her last contest. QUEEB - With a strong 70 Equibase Speed Fig last time out, will surely be a factor in this contest. She has been racing admirably recently while recording strong Equibase Speed Figures.
 

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The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $18000 Class Rating: 71

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 2 EXTRASEXYMAZZERATI 6/5

# 7 NONNO 3/1

# 5 MATCH THE POT 8/1

I think EXTRASEXYMAZZERATI is a very good choice. Must be in good form if the trainer is bringing him back so quickly. Looks to have a respectable class edge based on the recent company kept. Is a sharp contender based on numbers earned recently under today's conditions. NONNO - Could provide positive returns based on strong recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 56. Arriagada has one of the most respectable winning percentages in this group with entries running at this distance and surface. MATCH THE POT - This gelding is coming back almost immediately to race.
 

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The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Turf Paradise - Race #4 - Post: 2:23pm - Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,000 Class Rating: 82

Rating: 4

#2 TAKEIT TOTHE LIMIT (ML=5/1)
#8 NICOLAS CAJUN (ML=10/1)
#9 CARSON'S START (ML=5/2)


TAKEIT TOTHE LIMIT - The fact that this gelding is entered right back into a race so quickly means he's fit and ready. He got a decent speed fig the last time he tried this trip. A big drop down in class figure points from his October 21st race at Turf Paradise. Based on that data point, I will give this horse the edge. This gelding is certainly on the improve with Equibase speed figures of 60, 63, 68 last three out. NICOLAS CAJUN - Just see his latest figure, 75. That one fits in this field. CARSON'S START - He must like the track here. Shipped in to take the top prize on October 16th and he looks tough once again. The jock and handler combination have a profitable ROI when they team up.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 FUSAICHI SAMURAI (ML=2/1), #3 EXPONENTIALLY (ML=6/1), #6 DAX 'N' BRAX (ML=8/1),

FUSAICHI SAMURAI - The Brain cautions me to keep away from ponies in short distance contests that haven't hit the board in sprint affairs of late. There's early speed, speed, and more early zip in this event. Doesn't look good for this horse. EXPONENTIALLY - Last performed on Oct 22nd at Turf Paradise, finishing sixth. Not likely to get better off of that try in today's event. Don't think this horse will make a winning move in today's event. That last speed rating was run-of-the-mill when compared with today's class rating. DAX 'N' BRAX - Difficult to wager on any horse in a short distance race at 8/1 when he hasn't shown any positive results in sprints in the last couple of months.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#2 TAKEIT TOTHE LIMIT to win at post-time odds of 2/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
2 with [8,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,8,9] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
 

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The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Zia Park - Race #3 - Post: 1:05pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 51

Rating: 4

#3 FREAKY FAST (ML=8/1)
#7 LOOK AT THIS CAT (ML=3/1)
#1 IZE A CRAFTY GAL (ML=2/1)


FREAKY FAST - A repeat of that last effort on September 1st where she earned a speed rating of 22 looks lofty enough to triumph in this event. EPS (earnings per start) is something that I think can be a most important handicapping factor. This thoroughbred is ranked at the top in this field. LOOK AT THIS CAT - As the only speedy sort in the race, I expect this filly to be long gone. I think the shorter trip will help this filly stay the trip. After the contest aboard this animal on September 26th, the jockey is going to be in touch with the filly much better. Entered a Maiden Special race at Zia Park last time out and raced on a track listed as good finishing eighth. I'd expect a better race in this race. I look for a pretty big improvement in this event with the addition of Lasix for the second time. IZE A CRAFTY GAL - First-timer has morning drills over the Zia Park strip, which is always a plus. The addition of Lasix might make this horse wake up in today's race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 SUDDENLY A GHOST (ML=4/1), #8 HIGH AND LOFTY (ML=9/2),

SUDDENLY A GHOST - This mount hasn't been close to the winner at the wire lately. Finished sixth in her most recent performance with a somewhat easily forgotten speed rating. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this field. HIGH AND LOFTY - No picnic to wager on this racer today. Make her show you something in a sprint race before you play her in a race of 5 furlongs.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - LOOK AT THIS CAT - Taking a very big class figure tumble today. Let's make some cash on the drastic descent.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#3 FREAKY FAST is going to be the play if we are getting 3/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,3,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
 

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Broncos (3-3) @ Chiefs (5-2) — KC lost its last two games after a 5-0 start; they ran ball for average of 156.2 ypg in their five wins, 28-94 yards in their two losses. Broncos held five of six opponents to 80 or less rushing yards. Denver is 0-2 on road, losing 26-16 to Bills, 16-0 to Chargers; in their last four games, Broncos scored 3 TD’s on 45 drives- they ran ball 36 times for 115 yards in last two games. Denver scored 19 points on their last nine red zone drives- not good. Chiefs won last three series games, by 16-3-23 points; Denver won five of its last six visits to Arrowhead. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-9-2 against the spread. Over is 4-1-2 in Chief games, 0-3 in last three Denver games.

DENVER (3 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (5 - 2) - 10/30/2017, 8:30 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


DENVER @ KANSAS CITY
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games at home
Kansas City is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games
 

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MNF - Broncos at Chiefs

LAST WEEK

The Broncos (3-3 SU, 2-3-1 ATS) began the season at 2-0, but have dropped three of their last four games. Denver’s offense put up 42 points in a Week 2 blowout of Dallas, but the Broncos have scored a total of 42 points in the past four games combined. Vance Joseph’s squad was shut out by the Chargers last Sunday, 21-0 in Los Angeles as one-point favorites. Denver’s offense turned the ball over three times, including a pair of fumbles, while barely breaking the 250-yeard mark.

Denver’s defense wasn’t too bad by allowing Los Angeles to gain 242 yards of offense, but the Chargers scored on two big plays, a 65-yard punt return for a score by Travis Benjamin and Philip Rivers hitting Benjamin on a 42-yard touchdown strike in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Trevor Siemian started the season with six touchdown passes and two interceptions in the first two victories, but the former Northwestern standout has nearly flipped those numbers by throwing only two touchdowns and getting picked off five times.

The Chiefs (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) suffered their second consecutive defeat following a 5-0 start, as Kansas City lost in the final seconds at Oakland, 31-30. Kansas City led, 30-24 until Derek Carr hooked up with Michael Crabtree in the corner of the end zone to end Oakland’s four-game losing streak and give the Chiefs their first two-game skid since October 2015. The Chiefs connected on a pair of 60+ yard touchdown passes as Alex Smith hit Tyreek Hill and Albert Wilson, but Carr lit up the Kansas City defense for 417 yards and three touchdowns.

Rookie of the Year candidate Kareem Hunt was held out of the end zone for the fourth straight game, but managed to rack up over 100 all-purpose yards for the seventh time this season. Following that loss, the Chiefs fell to 1-1 in AFC West play, while suffering their first ATS defeat away from Arrowhead Stadium in four tries this season.

BROKEN ARROW

The Chiefs own one of the top home-field advantages in the NFL at Arrowhead Stadium, while winning two of three home contests this season. Kansas City has won seven of its last nine home games against AFC West foes since 2014, but both of those losses came to Denver. Although the Chiefs ripped the Broncos last December, 33-10, Kansas City won’t forget allowing 14 unanswered points in the final minute of a 31-24 setback in 2015 to Denver.

HIGHWAY TO HELL

The Broncos haven’t been able to cash in away from Sports Authority Field recently by posting a 2-6 SU/ATS record since Week 6 of last season. In this stretch, Denver owns a 1-3 SU/ATS mark as a road underdog, while being listed in this role for the first time this season after outright losses as an away favorite at Buffalo and Los Angeles.

RECENT HISTORY

Kansas City swept Denver last season for the first time since 2000 with two dramatically different results. The Chiefs tied the Broncos in the first matchup in Denver with a Smith touchdown pass to Hill in the final seconds, followed by a two-point conversion. The teams would exchange field goals in overtime before Cairo Santos knocked in the game-winning field goal with two seconds left for a 30-27 victory as 3½-point favorites.

The second meeting at Arrowhead Stadium was an early blowout as the Chiefs scored 21 first quarter points highlighted by a 70-yard touchdown and an 80-yard touchdown. Kansas City rushed for 238 yards in a 33-10 rout to easily cash as 3 ½-point favorites, as the Chiefs have won three straight matchups with the Broncos after losing seven consecutive games with Denver from 2012 through 2015.

MONDAY NIGHT DOMINATION

Favorites have rolled under the Monday night lights the last five weeks by picking up victories, while covering four times. The last two weeks have burned the sports books with the Favorite-Over combination, including Philadelphia’s victory over Washington last Monday. Kansas City is making its second appearance on Monday night football this season as the Chiefs pulled away from the Redskins, 29-20 in Week 4 as 6½-point favorites. Denver has won three consecutive Monday nighters, including a 24-21 home victory in Week 1 over Los Angeles.

TOTAL TALK

The Broncos began the season with three consecutive OVERS before finishing UNDER the total in their last three contests. Denver has cashed the UNDER in six of its past nine away from Sports Authority Field, while scoring 16 points or less in its last four road contests. Kansas City’s offense has helped the OVER cash in five of seven games, although the OVER barely cashed in two home wins over Philadelphia and Washington, while finishing UNDER the total in its last contest at Arrowhead Stadium in a Week 6 loss to Pittsburgh.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

VegasInsider.com expert Joe Nelson breaks down these two AFC West rivals from a defensive perspective, “The statistics paint a huge contrast between these teams on defense with the Chiefs 29th in the league in total defense allowing 396 yards per game. Denver leads the NFL allowing just 258 yards per game, though the Broncos are only 3.3 points per game better in scoring defense. The Broncos are allowing 3.0 yards per rush while the Chiefs allow 4.7 yards per rush while the Broncos yield 6.4 yards per pass attempt compared to 7.8 for the Chiefs.”

Kansas City’s offense hopes to keep putting up solid numbers, but it won’t be easy according to Nelson, “On offense, the Chiefs lead the NFL gaining 8.7 yards per pass attempt and Smith and the Chiefs are the only team in the NFL that hasn’t thrown an interception. Kansas City also leads the NFL gaining 5.2 yards per rush while Denver is a below average team in both of those statistical rankings as this matchup will feature the league’s top offenses vs. one of the league’s elite defenses.”

BOOKMAKER’S TAKE

Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu checks in from the other side of the counter, “We took a little bit of sharp money early on the Chiefs, which prompted a move to -7.5, but then got some smart action on the other side so we’re right back at the open. Feels like a good spread, and if I had to guess, it’d go back up before down. The public is backing the home squad to the tune of 70 percent.”

From the totals perspective, Denver’s struggles offensively may be the reason why the sharps and squares expect a low-scoring affair, “We’ve adjusted the total down 1.5 points so the wiseguys are on that side at this point. And surprisingly, up to this point the squares like the UNDER as well so we’ve got some liability there. Should get some over money from the public Sunday and Monday. Currently, 74 percent of the money is on the UNDER,” Cooley says.

LOOKING AHEAD

Both the Chiefs and Broncos will step out of the conference in Week 9 with road contests against tough NFC East foes. Kansas City travels to Dallas to face the Cowboys as that game opened as a pick-em in the Westgate Superbook early lines released last week. Denver heads to Philadelphia to take on the red-hot Eagles, as the Broncos are back in the road underdog role by receiving 6½ points.
 

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Monday Night Football Betting Preview

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 43)

The Kansas City Chiefs reigned supreme in clashes against their AFC West brethren with 12 straight wins before last week's setback in Oakland. The Chiefs look to avenge that defeat and end an overall two-game losing skid on Monday night when they welcome the return of their franchise's all-time leading rusher in Jamaal Charles and the Denver Broncos.

Kansas City has its own dynamic back in rookie Kareem Hunt, who is the only player in NFL history to start his career with seven straight 100-yard scrimmage games. Hunt, who leads the league in yards rushing (717) and is second in yards per carry (5.78), rolled up 117 yards from scrimmage (87 yards rushing, 30 receiving) in a 31-30 loss to the Raiders on Oct. 19. Like the Chiefs, the Broncos have also lost two straight to bring themselves back to the pack in the suddenly congested division heading into Charles' return to Arrowhead Stadium. "I'll always be a Chief ... I have so much history (there)," said the 30-year-old Charles, who needs 44 yards from scrimmage to reach 10,000 for his career. "Lot of sad memories, lot of happy memories. At the end of the day, I'm just going out there to play football."

POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (1) - Chiefs (-4) + home field (-3) = Chiefs -6

LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened as 7.5-point home chalk and briefly went down to an even -7 before returning to the opening number. The total hit the betting board at 42 and was quickly bet up to 44 and steadily been fading to the current number of 42.5. View the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Broncos -
TE A.J. Derby (Questionable, Shoulder), DE Derek Wolfe (Questionable, Hand), TE Virgil Green (Questionable, Shoulder), S Will Parks (Questionable, Shoulder), QB Paxton Lynch (Questionable, Shoulder), WR Cody Latimer (Questionable, Knee), OT Menelik Watson (Questionable, Calf), WR Emmanuel Sanders (Questionable, Ankle), WR Isaiah McKenzie (Questionable, Ankle), OT Donald Stephenson (Questionable, Calf), LB Todd Davis (Out Indefinitely, Ankle), LB Shane Ray (Probable, Wrist).

Chiefs - OL Mitch Morse (Probable, Foot), RB Charcandrick West (Probable, Concussion), LB Justin Houston (Questionable, Knee), OL Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (Questionable, Knee), OL Parker Ehinger (Out Indefinitely, Knee), LB Dadi Nicolas (Questionable, Knee), LB Tamba Hali (Questionable, Knee), DB Steven Nelson (Questionable Week 9, Abdominal).

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (3-3 SU, 2-3-1 ATS, 3-3 O/U):Trevor Siemian became the talk of the town following Denver's disastrous 21-0 setback to the Los Angeles Chargers, and the conversation was anything but positive after the team's first shutout loss in a quarter-century. "I have to play better. It starts with me," the second-year starter said. "... Guys are frankly embarrassed with what we put out there last Sunday. We have to play better. I have to play better. Everybody knows that." C.J. Anderson has been held in check after rushing for at least 81 yards in three of the team's first four games, as he totaled just 61 on the ground over the last two.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS, 5-2 O/U): Alex Smith is shedding the "game manager" label that has followed him around for the majority of his career in favor of perhaps another title: mid-season NFL MVP candidate. The top overall pick of the 2005 draft eclipsed 300 yards passing and three touchdowns for the third time this season to give him 15 scoring strikes and no interceptions. Trusted target Travis Kelce found the end zone last week versus the Raiders and has reeled in at least one reception in 55 consecutive contests. Kelce gashed the Broncos for season highs in catches (11) and receiving yards (160) with a touchdown in a 33-10 victory last Christmas.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
* Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 8-1 in Broncos last 9 games following a ATS loss.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The home fave Chiefs are picking up 64 percent of the action on the spread and Over is grabbing 54 percent of the totals selections.
 

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Monday's Best NFL Bet

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs

Odds:
Kansas City (-7); Total set at 42

The AFC West takes center stage to close out Week 8 as two struggling teams on losing streaks do battle in Kansas City tonight.

It's tough to really say Kansas City is “struggling” with a 5-2 SU record, but they've lost two in a row (vs Pittsburgh and @ Oakland), as injuries have started to mount on both sides of the ball. Kansas City still has the potential to build their lead to three games in the division with a victory this evening, and as home favorites of a TD, oddsmakers like the Chiefs chances of doing so.

Given how the Broncos have played in recent weeks it's easy to see why a number like this was hung on the board, as Denver's been downright awful the past two weeks, and borderline going on a month– specifically on offense. Last week's shut out loss to the Chargers of all teams was embarrassing, but it still wasn't embarrassing as the 23-10 home loss as 13.5-point home favorites against a Giants team that had practice squad receivers as the only guys on the outside.

The Broncos offense has progressively gotten worse over the past month with scores of 16, 16, 10, and 0 the past four weeks, and the organization could have a mutiny led by the defense on their hands soon if the Broncos offensive players don't start carrying their own weight.

After two straight weeks of baffling offensive performances, there aren't many bettors out there that have an iota of faith in Denver right now. Shutouts have happened with a bit more frequency this year, but to get blanked by the Chargers a week after the Broncos were never really in the game as double digit home favorites against a decimated New York Giants team has to have the Broncos organization at the ready to push the panic button. But we all know that things can change rather quickly on a week-to-week basis in the NFL, and a second crack under the prime-time lights in three weeks gives the Broncos a chance for redemption. This has got to be the ultimate “buy low” spot on a team that can't score points but still has a very talented defense that ranks #1 in the league in yards allowed per game.

Kansas City enters tonight after losing a wild game with an even wilder finish to the Raiders on TNF in Week 7. Bettors who backed the Chiefs that day had to be sick to their stomach with how that game against Oakland finished, and now KC has to find a way to rebound in the midst of this tough stretch in their schedule.

Four straight weeks of facing the likes of Pittsburgh, Oakland, Denver, and Dallas is as tough a stretch as any, but considering the extra rest they've had since that Oakland defeat, and how bad Denver has looked lately, it's no surprise to see Kansas City garnering about 65% of the support tonight.

However, even with the extra rest, I see this spot as one that's better to grab the points with a Broncos team nobody really wants to touch right now. Denver's offense really has nowhere to go but up at the moment, and sometimes all it takes is one strong drive or one big play that takes the cap off the opposing defense and confidence is restored. Kansas City has started to show the affects of being without S Eric Berry in the secondary the past few weeks, and it's not like Denver QB Trevor Siemian doesn't have talented weapons to work with.

Siemian's play has been a big cause for concern during this recent bad stretch for Denver, but this is a guy that threw for 3 TD's and 368 yards in one of his two games against KC a year ago, and that was with Berry patrolling the secondary for KC. Siemian is more than capable of having a solid day against KC tonight, and if Denver's defense – the clear strength of their team – can get a turnover or two, the Broncos will be in fine position to possibly pull off the outright upset.

I'm not willing to go that far yet with Denver as it's not like I completely trust them to all of a sudden turn things around, but their defense is too good not to at least give their offense a chance to keep this one close. Falling three full games (essentially 3.5 with a head-to-head loss vs KC) behind the Chiefs in the division race could be the death blow to Denver's AFC West title races, so expect them to actually show up this week on both sides of the ball.

With the road team being 6-1 ATS in the last seven games between these two, the underdog on a 5-1 ATS run, and KC on a 1-6 ATS run after allowing 30+, I'm grabbing the points with the Broncos tonight as an “ugly dog” that shows it's best side on MNF.

Best Bet: Denver +7
 

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MNF Betting INfo

Underdogs are 1-11 straight-up and 4-8 ATS in Week 8

Broncos 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.

Chiefs 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.

Ton Corrente officiating tonight ... Unders 81-60 (58%) when he refs

If wind is blowing (10+ MPH) ... Under 16-7-1

Chiefs are 4-1 ATS at Arrowhead Stadium for Monday Night Football and 6-2 ATS in primetime home games - Mon/Thurs - since 2000
 

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NBA Knowledge

Spurs won their last ten games with Boston (8-2 vs spread); they covered their last five visits to Beantown. Last three series games went over the total. San Antonio lost its last couple games, at Orlando/Indiana; 2-2 on the road. Four of their last five games stayed under. Celtics won their last four games after an 0-2 start (under 5-1)- they split their two home games.

Denver won/covered its last five games against the Knicks, winning last two visits to Manhattan by 8-5 points. Under is 6-2 in last eight series games. Nuggets won last two games after a 1-3 start; under is 5-1 in their games. Denver split its four road games. New York won its last two games after an 0-3 start (under 4-1)— they beat Cleveland by 19 yesterday- they’re 1-1 at home.

Heat won three of last four games with Minnesota; road team won six of last nine series games. Timberwolves are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits here. Under is 6-4 in last ten series games. Minnesota split its first six games this season (over 5-0-1); they split their four home games. Miami is 2-3 to start season (over 3-2), losing last two home games by 6-17 points.

Hornets won three of last four games with Memphis; road team won four of last six series games. Charlotte covered their last three games in this building- under is 3-0 in last three series games. Hornets split their first six games (under 5-1), losing their two road games by 12-9 points. Grizzlies are 5-1 to start season (under 5-0-1), 4-0 at home, 3-1 vs spread.

Home side won seven of last eight Orlando-New Orleans games; under is 6-1 in last seven series games. Magic is 1-3 vs spread in last four visits to Bourbon Street. Orlando won three of its last four games; they’re 1-2 as a road underdog. Four of six Magic games went over the total. New Orleans won three of last four games; over is 4-1 in their last five. Pelicans split their two home games, against Cleveland/Golden State.

Rockets won their last eight games with Philly; they beat Sixers at the buzzer Wednesday. Sixers are 2-2 vs spread in last four visits here. Over is 6-4 in last ten series games. 76ers won two of last three games after an 0-3 start (over 3-3); they’re 3-1 vs spread on road. Houston is 5-2 to start season; their last six games stayed under total. Rockets split their two home games.

Jazz won three of last four games with Dallas, but Mavericks covered four of last five; Dallas is 3-2 vs spread in its last five visits to Utah. Mavericks are 1-6 to start season, 0-2 on road, losing by 16-5 points (1-1 vs spread, under 2-0). Jazz is 3-0 at home, 0-3 on road (under 5-0-1); they’re 3-0 vs spread as a home favorite, winning home games by 10-9-15 points.

Toronto won its last four games with Portland; four of last five series games went over the total. Raptors are 2-3 vs spread in their last five visits to Oregon. Toronto is 3-2 to start season, 1-2 on road; all three of their road games stayed under the total. Trailblazers are 4-2 to start season (under 4-2). Portland is 2-1 at home, 1-2 vs spread as a home favorite.

Golden State won its last ten games with the Clippers, covering four of last five; Warriors are 4-1 vs spread in last five series games played here. Last three series games went over total. Warriors are only 4-3 to start season (over 5-2), 2-1 on road, 1-2 as a road favorite. Clippers won/covered four of their first five games (under 5-0); they’re 2-1 at home, losing to Detroit by 8 Saturday.

SAN ANTONIO (4 - 1) at BOSTON (4 - 2) - 10/30/2017, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 1007-880 ATS (+39.0 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 46-24 ATS (+19.6 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 334-275 ATS (+31.5 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
BOSTON is 22-42 ATS (-24.2 Units) in home games against Southwest division opponents since 1996.
BOSTON is 126-163 ATS (-53.3 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.
BOSTON is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 3-1 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 4-0 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

_________________________________________________

DENVER (2 - 3) at NEW YORK (1 - 3) - 10/30/2017, 7:35 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 4-0 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-0 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (3 - 3) at MIAMI (2 - 3) - 10/30/2017, 7:35 PM

Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 46-74 ATS (-35.4 Units) after scoring 115 points or more since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 126-171 ATS (-62.1 Units) in home games in the first half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

_________________________________________________

CHARLOTTE (2 - 3) at MEMPHIS (5 - 1) - 10/30/2017, 8:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.
CHARLOTTE is 47-76 ATS (-36.6 Units) against Southwest division opponents since 1996.
MEMPHIS is 162-122 ATS (+27.8 Units) after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
MEMPHIS is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 3-1 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
CHARLOTTE is 3-1 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ORLANDO (4 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (3 - 3) - 10/30/2017, 8:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 36-50 ATS (-19.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 2-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 3-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (2 - 4) at HOUSTON (5 - 2) - 10/30/2017, 8:05 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 5-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (1 - 6) at UTAH (3 - 3) - 10/30/2017, 9:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 381-313 ATS (+36.7 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
DALLAS is 483-406 ATS (+36.4 Units) in road games since 1996.
DALLAS is 158-122 ATS (+23.8 Units) in road games in the first half of the season since 1996.
DALLAS is 178-132 ATS (+32.8 Units) in road games after a non-conference game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 5-2 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 4-3 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TORONTO (3 - 2) at PORTLAND (4 - 2) - 10/30/2017, 10:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 2-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 4-0 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (4 - 2) at LA CLIPPERS (4 - 1) - 10/30/2017, 10:35 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 5-3 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

SAN ANTONIO @ BOSTON
San Antonio is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games

DENVER @ NEW YORK
Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New York
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing New York
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New York's last 8 games when playing Denver

MINNESOTA @ MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games on the road
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Miami is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing Minnesota

PHILADELPHIA @ HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games on the road
Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia

CHARLOTTE @ MEMPHIS
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Charlotte's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Charlotte's last 5 games on the road
Memphis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Memphis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

ORLANDO @ NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Orlando's last 7 games when playing New Orleans
Orlando is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing Orlando
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games at home

DALLAS @ UTAH
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Utah
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Utah
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 6 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Utah's last 6 games at home

TORONTO @ PORTLAND
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Portland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Portland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing Toronto
Portland is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Toronto

GOLDEN STATE @ LA CLIPPERS
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Clippers's last 7 games at home

StatFox Super Situations

MINNESOTA at MIAMI
Play Over - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 being called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents on the season, first half of the season 41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

DENVER at NEW YORK
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 off an upset win as an underdog against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points 78-38 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.2% | 36.2 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )


CHARLOTTE at MEMPHIS
Play On - Any team vs the money line (MEMPHIS) excellent defensive team (<=41.5%) against a good defensive team (41.5-43.5%) 28-10 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.7% | 20.1 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
 

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NBA Situational Betting

Charlotte Hornets at Memphis Grizzlies – There are quite a few teams on Monday night back-to-backs to start out the week. The Hornets are one of them, as they go from a home tilt against Orlando within the division to a standalone road game in Memphis. The Grizzlies are in the midst of a lengthy homestand, so this is clearly a much better spot for them. With Charlotte coming back home to face an upstart Eastern Conference foe in the Milwaukee Bucks, this looks like a bit of a flat spot, especially with a long road trip beginning on Friday. The Grizzlies should be a good grab in this one.

Orlando Magic at New Orleans Pelicans – The Magic are firing up a ton of three-pointers to open up the 2017-18 season. That means that we really need to look out for tired legs with them. They’ll be on a back-to-back with travel from Charlotte to New Orleans on Monday night for the third game in four nights. The Magic are also shooting well over their heads to open up the season, so the idea of impending regression will be built into the line, but it may not be built in enough with the b2b and travel. The Pelicans are in a bit of a letdown spot with the win over Cleveland, but with a day to get over it, they should be ready to go.

San Antonio Spurs at Boston Celtics – The Spurs are off to a solid start, but this will be a good test on Monday against the Celtics. San Antonio hosts Golden State on Thursday to kick off a long homestand and this is a back-to-back with travel for the third game in four nights. Gregg Popovich and Brad Stevens are thought to be two of the best coaches in the league and they’ll match wits in a spot that would appear to favor Boston, though the Celtics are still trying some different things to make up for Gordon Hayward’s production. Will that be exposed here? We’ll have to see how the Spurs come out and where this line opens.
 

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Red-hot Clippers host Warriors

Will the intensity of this California rivalry live on without the involvement of Chris Paul?

By certain metrics, Clippers vs. Warriors has been the best rivalry in the NBA in recent years. No matchup brought together more total pettiness on a single court than this one, and few teams hate each other as much as these two have. Of course, there's the old line about it not being a rivalry if one team always wins, and that has certainly been the case here: The Clippers have consistently been outclassed by the Warriors over the past several seasons. The game figures to have a different tone this year, however, as star Clippers PG Chris Paul is now a Houston Rocket. Paul is an all-time antagonist and his presence will be missed, but a rejuvenated Blake Griffin will likely be looking to take it to Draymond Green. Plus, CP3 replacement Patrick Beverley may be one of the few players in the league who is actually better at getting under opponents' skin than Paul is.

Blake Griffin looks like a new man. His past few seasons have been defined by injury, controversy or both, but he appears to have a renewed comfort as the unquestioned leader of this Clippers squad. He put up big stat lines in Los Angeles's first three wins—all blowouts—but really called the league to attention with 25 points, eight rebounds and five assists against Portland. He knocked down a three at the buzzer to win the game by a 104-103 score. It was a fitting way for Griffin to grab the victory, as his season thus far has been defined by a willingness to shoot from beyond the three-point line, and success in doing so. Beyond Griffin, the team's leading scorers have been new acquisitions. Beverley and SG Lou Williams, both sent over in the Paul trade, are effective from the perimeter, and Beverley makes life hell for opposing PGs. Williams figures to be a Sixth Man of the Year candidate once again. SF Danilo Gallinari has shot poorly, but figures to see his scoring numbers increase as he finds a rhythm. Through four games, C DeAndre Jordan was averaging a monstrous 18.3 RPG. After a rough start to the year, PG Austin Rivers scored 16 points in both games three and four.

Warriors haters everywhere rejoiced when the Dubs fell to 1-2 with a loss to Memphis, a game in which Steph Curry and Kevin Durant were ejected in the final moments. They should savor it, because there's a good chance, as always, that Golden State goes a long time without losing again. They rebounded strongly, beating Dallas by 30 points two nights later (a win that rookie PF Jordan Bell punctuated with an alley oop to himself). Curry and Durant scored 29 and 25 points in that game, each needing only 15 shots to get to their respective totals. Golden State got a much closer contest in their next one, going down to the wire in a 117-112 win over Toronto. Curry and Durant scored 30 and 29, respectively, each taking 20 shots and hitting key three-pointers in the fourth quarter. SG Klay Thompson scored over 20 points in each of those games, as well. He, along with PF Draymond Green, are elite defenders, but the Warriors D looked rusty in its early games this year. Draymond is already up to his old tricks, engaging in trash talk with Dallas rookie Dennis Smith Jr. Newly added SG Nick Young is the eighth man in the rotation, but takes the most shots outside of the Big Four.
 

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Monday's Tip Sheet

Game of the Night: Warriors at Clippers

This series between these two Pacific division rivals has been thoroughly dominated by Golden State the last few season with the Warriors winning 10 straight meetings. Last season, Golden State captured all four matchups by 10 points each, including a pair of convincing victories at Staples Center. The Warriors are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five visits to southern California, as Golden State embarks on a tough three-game road swing that extends to San Antonio on Thursday and Denver on Saturday.

Golden State (4-3 SU, 1-6 ATS) blew a double-digit second half in a 115-107 home setback to Detroit on Sunday as hefty 14-point favorites. The Warriors lost in spite of shooting 57% from the floor and their “Big Three” of Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, and Klay Thompson combining for 84 points. The defending champions fell to 0-4 ATS at Oracle Arena this season, while allowing at least 112 points in all four home games. On the road, the Warriors own a 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS record, while losing in its only opportunity with no rest at Memphis on October 21.

The Clippers (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) began the season at 4-0, but were also bitten by the Pistons’ bug as Detroit went into Staples Center on Saturday and handed L.A. its first loss, 95-87. Doc Rivers’ squad was limited to 32 second half points after putting up 31 second quarter points. The Clippers were limited to 33% shooting from the floor, as Blake Griffin and Danilo Gallinari combined to shoot 9-of-34 for 32 points. L.A. owns a perfect 5-0 mark to the UNDER this season, while limiting four opponents to 95 points or fewer.

SILVER STRUGGLES

The Spurs (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) started their four-game road swing with a solid 17-point victory at Miami. However, San Antonio was blasted at Orlando on Friday and fell in the final seconds at Indiana on Sunday to drop two in a row following a 4-0 run to begin the season. The offense is taking a step back by putting up 87 against the Magic and 94 against the Pacers following a 117-point output at Miami. The Spurs head to Boston tonight looking for their 12th straight win in the series, which includes six consecutive victories at TD Garden.

The Celtics (4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS) are rolling of late by winning four straight following early losses to the Cavaliers and Bucks. Boston has covered in each of those victories, while the defense has stepped up by yielding 92 points or less in those four wins, resulting in four UNDERS. The last time the Celtics were favored over the Spurs came back in 2011 as Boston edged San Antonio, 105-103, but failed to cash as 2½-point chalk.

SCRATCHING AWAY

The leaders of the Southwest division don’t reside in Texas as the Grizzlies (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) have taken the early edge. What has helped Memphis was a pair of victories over Houston in the last week, including a 103-89 home triumph over the Rockets as 2½-point favorites. The Grizzlies have allowed over 100 points only twice in six games, resulting in a solid 5-0-1 mark to the UNDER. Memphis hosts Charlotte this evening, as the Grizzlies have lost three of the past four meetings with the Hornets.

MAGIC TRICK

Orlando (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) has pulled off several surprising victories this season by blasting Cleveland and San Antonio by double-digits. However, the Magic fell short in Sunday’s 120-113 setback at Charlotte as four-point underdogs to end Orlando’s three-game winning streak. Orlando heads to New Orleans with no rest as the Magic have won in their only back-to-back situation against the Cavaliers on October 21 following a loss at Brooklyn the night before. New Orleans has been on fire from an ATS perspective by covering four of its past five games, including a 123-101 blowout of Cleveland on Saturday.

ROAD BLAZIN’

The Raptors (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) continue their six-game road swing in Portland tonight as Toronto picked up its first victory on the trip against the Lakers on Friday. It’s been an easy formula to figure out the Raptors at least early on as they will win as a favorite (3-0 SU/ATS), but lose in the underdog role (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS). Toronto is listed as a short ‘dog tonight at the Moda Center against a Portland squad that has alternated wins and losses in its last five games after holding off Phoenix on Saturday night. The Raptors have swept the Blazers each of the past two seasons, while the last four matchups in Portland have been decided by seven points or less.

HEAD-TO-HEAD TRENDS

The Nuggets wrap up their swing through New York City after beating the Nets on Sunday as Denver heads to Madison Square Garden tonight. Denver has won and covered five consecutive meetings with New York, while the Knicks try to follow up last night’s impressive 114-95 triumph at Cleveland as 10½-point underdogs.

The Heat try to snap a two-game losing streak as Miami hosts Minnesota. The Wolves ended a two-game skid in Saturday’s home victory over the Thunder, but Minnesota is listed in the road favorite role for the first time this season. The Heat swept the Wolves last season, while both matchups sailed OVER the total.

The Rockets and 76ers hook up for the second time in a week after Houston knocked off Philadelphia at the buzzer last Wednesday, 105-104. The two teams meet in Houston tonight as the Rockets go for their ninth consecutive win over the 76ers since March 2014. Philadelphia has covered three straight games, including in Saturday’s two-point victory at Dallas.

The Mavericks seek only their second win of the season with a trip to Salt Lake City to face the Jazz. Dallas and Utah split four games last season with two of those contests going to overtime. The Mavs have covered four of the last five meetings with the Jazz, including two of the past three visits to Salt Lake.
 

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NBA Pick 'n' Roll: Monday's Picks and Analysis

Denver Nuggets at New York Knicks (+4, 209)

Did Denver figure out its offensive issues or did the team just benefit from playing against the one of the league’s worst defenses? The Nuggets put up a season-high 124 on the scoreboard on Sunday in a 13-point victory against the Brooklyn Nets, with seven Nuggets striking double figures in points.

The final score was more in line with what NBA experts were expecting for Denver this season after the team led the league in offensive efficiency in the second half of last season once Nicola Jokic was inserted into the starting lineup.

The Nugs are middle of the pack in offensive rating this season, averaging just 102.4 points per 100 possessions. Denver was one of the best Over bets a year ago when it played above the total in 50 of its 82 regular season games, but Sunday’s result was Denver’s first Over of the new campaign.

Expect Mike Malone’s men to push the pace against the Knicks on Monday and pad a lot of player stat lines.

Pick: Nuggets -4

Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz (-7.5, 192)

The Utah Jazz are struggling to find a new go-to guy on offense and Under bettors are delighting in the results. The under is 5-0-1 in Utah’s six games this season and their leading scorer, Rodney Hood, is averaging only 15.3 points per game. Ricky Rubio, a pass-first point guard, is leading the team in shot attempts per game and is shooting just 41 percent from the field.

The Jazz are hoping promising youngster Donovan Mitchell can pick up more of the scoring load but he, like most rookies, struggles to bring it on a consistent basis.

Pick: Under 192

Yesterday’s picks: 1-1
Season record: 14-12

Total Trends

*The Under is 4-0 in the Celtics’ last four games.
*The Over is 4-0 in the Timberwolves’ last four road games.
*The Under is 10-1 in the Nuggets’ last 11 games overall.
*The Under is 6-0 in the Rockets’ last six games.
*The Under is 7-1 in the Hornets’ last eight games.

Injury to Watch

The Miami Heat are expected to be without center Hassan Whiteside for a fifth consecutive game. Whiteside, who averaged 17 points, 14.1 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game for the Heat last season, is dealing with a bone bruise on his knee. Miami is 2-2 straight up and 0-3-1 against the spread without its big man this season.

Ref to Watch

The Boston Celtics are 8-2 straight up and 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 games officiated by Gary Zielinski. He’s part of Ken Mauer’s crew working the Spurs-Celtics game tonight in Boston.

Today’s NBA referee assignments. More NBA referee statistics.

Top Trends

*The Warriors are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.
*The 76ers’ are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games.
*The Heat are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.

Consensus

Seventy percent of players expect the Minnesota Timberwolves to cover as 3-point road favorites against the Miami Heat on Monday.
 

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