Best CFB Week 9 bets
CFB VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN insider
10/26/17
Our experts are back with their Week 9 college football picks. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica will pick out their top plays from some of the week's best matchups. It's all here in one file for your perusing pleasure.
Here are the best bets for Week 9 of the college football season.
ATS record:
Phil Steele: 4-3 in Week 8 (27-35-1 season)
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin: 4-1 in Week 8 (24-13-2 season)
Chris Fallica: 3-5 in Week 8 (31-27 season)
Note: Lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Common games
No. 2 Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes (-6.5)
Steele: Ohio State is playing with legit revenge after last year's loss in Happy Valley cost them a spot in the Big Ten Championship game. Urban Meyer is 24-10-1 versus the Vegas experts in revenge games. The Buckeyes enter fresh off a bye, while Penn State just gave an all-out effort in front of their white-out crowd versus Michigan. This year's Ohio State team reminds me of the 2014 version, which lost in its second game and then rolled to the national title. Since falling to Oklahoma in their second game this year, the Buckeyes have been rolling along, winning by an average of 42 points per game and outgaining their opponents by 377 yards per game. J.T. Barrett has a sensational 21-1 ratio, and a statement win here will catapult him into the Heisman Trophy discussion.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 34, Penn State 23
Coughlin: Urban Meyer's teams are 20-1 after a bye week over his career and 5-0 against top-25 opponents. The Buckeyes have scored 50 points and produced more than 500 yards in each of their past four wins, the latest being a 56-14 blowout at Nebraska two weeks ago. Revenge is on the Buckeyes' minds. Still, I can't pass on taking the Lions here. I think their offense is as good as there is in the conference. They have faced adversity on the road already this year, winning on the last play of the game at Iowa. Most importantly, I think their defense will keep them in this game; they haven't given up 20 points in a game yet this year. Penn State wins on the road.
ATS pick: Penn State
Score: Penn State 27, Ohio State 24
Fallica: I don't understand why everyone is playing up an Ohio State revenge theme here. Yes, Penn State beat the Buckeyes last year, but OSU went to the College Football Playoff instead of Penn State. The Nittany Lions probably have just as much of a grudge with OSU (even though the playoff debate last year was really between PSU and No. 4 Washington). Under Meyer, Ohio State has been far from great against top-10 teams at home, getting soundly beaten by Oklahoma in September, beating Michigan in overtime last year in a controversial finish, beating a Nebraska team that should have been nowhere near the top 10 and losing to a Michigan State and its backup QB in 2015.
Will the Ohio State offense open up in a big game? Is the resurgence in recent weeks truly a resurgence, or is it the result of playing no team of signifance? Will the weather allow the offenses to operate carefree, as rain is a near certainty. I don't think Penn State will have a letdown after last week's win over Michigan mainly because the game was a blowout and it didn't have to be mentally sharp for four full quarters. Factoring in the weather, the stakes, two top-12 defenses in terms of efficiency, this has the makings of a lower-scoring game in which Penn State has a chance to win. Too many questions for me to take a stand with the side, so I will lean toward the under on the total points.
Pick: Under 56.5 points
Score: Ohio State 27, Penn State 24
No. 14 NC State Wolfpack at No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-7.5)
Steele: The Irish come in averaging 318 rushing yards per game and 7.1 yards per carry, but have played only two top-25 rush defenses. They were held to 55 rushing yards and 1.5 yards per carry by Georgia, and 182 rushing yards and 4.6 yards per carry by Michigan State. North Carolina State has my No. 3 rated defensive line in the country and is allowing just 91 rushing yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry. Notre Dame quarterback Brandon Wimbush is completing only 52.3 percent of his passes, so there's not a big passing threat when the running game struggles. The Irish are holding foes to 33 yards per game below their average while allowing just 3.6 yards per carry. Take the under.
Pick: Under 58 points
Score: Notre Dame 31, NC State 24
Coughlin: This is a game that features great matchups on both sides of the ball. When Notre Dame has the ball, its sixth-ranked rushing offense faces off against the sixth-ranked rushing defense. When the other units are on the field, you'll see a Notre Dame defense that has remarkably turned 13 of the 17 turnovers it has created into touchdowns. But will it get those turnovers against NC State quarterback Ryan Finley, who hasn't thrown an interception in 313 consecutive passes dating to last season, the longest active streak in the country? So, what gives? I think my favorite offensive line in the country wears down the Pack, and the Irish win and cover as that fight song plays a lot more in the second half than it did in the first half.
ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 29, NC State 20
Fallica: Notre Dame's performance in a monsoon in Raleigh last year might have been the low point in a season of low points for the Irish. This year's team is playing with an edge and has throttled everyone except Georgia. I sense there will be no letdown this week for the Irish. NC State has a very good defensive line and had two weeks to prepare, but the Notre Dame offensive line and running game hasn't been stopped by anyone outside of Georgia, so I like the Irish to continue their winning ways, making each game bigger as the season goes on. One nugget for you: As good as the NC State defense has been, it is Notre Dame's defense which is ranked 16th nationally in expected points, 25 spots higher than the Wolfpack.
ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 34, NC State 24
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at No. 7 Clemson Tigers (-14)
Steele: In the past two years, Clemson has had just three and four returning starters on defense and faced the complex Georgia Tech offense early in the year with those inexperienced defenses. The result? They held Georgia Tech, which averaged 272 rushing yards per game over those two years versus every other opponent, to just 71 and 95 yards rushing. This year, Clemson has seven starters back on defense, its most veteran group in three years, and is off a loss. The Tigers also had a bye last week to help prep for the option. The toughest defense Georgia Tech has faced this year was Miami, and the Hurricanes had a 481-281 yard edge against them.
ATS pick: Clemson
Score: Clemson 31, Georgia Tech 16
Fallica: I'm taking a little bit of a leap of faith, assuming Kelly Bryant will be good to go by Saturday night, but Clemson played its best football of the season last year after the loss to Pittsburgh. The same could ring true this year. Tech is two heartbreaking losses away from being unbeaten at this point. This has been a really bad matchup for Tech the last couple of seasons, as Brent Venables' defense has done a great job versus the Jackets, holding them to 230 and 124 yards. The Tigers have outgained Georgia Tech by over 300 yards in each of the last two meetings. The road game next week at NC State gives me a little pause as to laying the big number, but I think the more pressing concerns of getting back to playing good football and gaining confidence again outweighs that.
ATS pick: Clemson
Score: Clemson 35, Georgia Tech 14
Thursday games
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Northern Illinois Huskies (-7)
Fallica: EMU may be on a five-game losing streak, but this team hasn't quit. Each of those five losses has come by seven points or less (a combined 20 points). In fact, dating back to last year, each of Eastern Michigan's past seven losses are by seven points or fewer. Chris Creighton has done a great job in Ypsilanti, getting the Eagles to a bowl last season. EMU has to win four of its final five games to again reach bowl eligibility. Looking at the schedule, it's doable, so I expect EMU to again give a great effort in an underdog role.
ATS pick: Eastern Michigan
Score: Northern Illinois 30, Eastern Michigan 27
Saturday games
Tennessee Volunteers at Kentucky Wildcats (-4)
Steele: Kentucky was handled at the line of scrimmage by Mississippi State, showing that its No. 10 rush defense ranking was inflated by taking on weak foes. Tennessee has faced the much tougher schedule (my No. 17 versus No. 53) with its four losses coming to foes that have a combined record of 23-5. Tennessee is an amazing 31-1 straight up in this series, and the one loss was by three points. Kentucky has not beaten Tennessee by more than three points since 1981, and they play every year. Tennessee has won the past five meetings by 23 points per game. Yes, Tennessee has not scored an offensive touchdown in its past 14 quarters, but it did just face Georgia (No. 2 defense), Alabama (No. 1 defense) and South Carolina (No. 19 defense), and now it takes on my No. 60 defense. Kentucky has been outgained by every FBS foe it has faced this year (minus 86 yards per game). Butch Jones' job and a bowl season are on the line for Tennessee, and the Vols will pull off the upset.
ATS pick: Tennessee
Score: Tennessee 24, Kentucky 23
Mississippi State Bulldogs (-1) at Texas A&M Aggies
Steele: Texas A&M was ranked No. 4 in the initial playoff rankings last year and then was upset in Starksville as a 10.5-point favorite, which puts the Aggies in revenge mode this week. While Kevin Sumlin has struggled in October, A&M has actually covered both games against the Vegas line this month. The Aggies lost to Alabama by only one possession at College Station three weeks ago and enter fresh off a bye, giving true freshman quarterback Kellen Mond more practice repetitions. Mississippi State is being outgained by 47 yards per game on the road, while A&M is outgaining their opponents by 74 yards per game at home. The Aggies have played just one bad half of football all season, and I'll call for minor upset as Texas A&M should be favored in this game.
ATS pick: Texas A&M
Score: Texas A&M 30, Mississippi State 23
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Purdue Boilermakers (-5.5)
Steele: Nebraska is fresh off a bye and its defense had been making major strides under new defensive coordinator Bob Diaco until it ran into the percolating Ohio State offense. The 633 yards allowed looks alarming, but it was only 65 yards more than the Buckeyes' average. Even including that, they've held foes to 81 yards per game below their season average over the last five games. Purdue is off three straight misleading finals. It got a 76-yard interception return touchdown versus Minnesota with 10 seconds left to win by 14, it was outgained by 273 yards versus Wisconsin but lost by only eight, and it finished with a 474-217 yard edge versus Rutgers but lost by two. Versus similar Big Ten schedules, Nebraska is even in net yards per game, while Purdue is minus-35 yards per game. In their four recent meetings, Nebraska has been favored by an average of 17 points per game and is now almost a touchdown 'dog. Tanner Lee is completing 60 percent with a 6-1 ratio his past three games despite facing Ohio State and Wisconsin in that stretch. I'll call for the Huskers to pull the upset.
ATS pick: Nebraska
Score: Nebraska 24, Purdue 23
Florida Intl Golden Panthers at Marshall Thundering Herd (-17)
Steele: Marshall keeps delivering just about every week. In Conference USA play, the Herd are plus-153 yards per game, as their defense has allowed just 227 yards per game. FIU has taken on a light C-USA schedule, but is still minus-42 yards per game, being held to 67 yards per game less than its opponents allow on average. In C-USA play, Marshall holds foes to 119 yards per game below their season average, and FIU allows 75 yards per game more than its opponents average. Marshall's only loss is to powerful NC State, and the Herd were were only outgained by 34 yards. Marshall is hosting the game and playing with revenge. They have the edge on offense, defense and special teams.
ATS pick: Marshall
Score: Marshall 33, Florida International 6
No. 21 USC Trojans (-3.5) at Arizona State Sun Devils
Steele: While USC is 14-3 in this series, it split the past six meetings. Last year, Arizona State was a banged-up team with 20 or more players on the weekly injury report. They were missing upward of 11 starters in some games. This year, they have just two players on the injury report. USC is the banged-up team this year, with more than 20 players injured. Sam Darnold is one of those players, but he will start. Notre Dame ran the ball down the Trojan's throat with 377 rushing yards at a 8.0 yards per rush rate. Arizona State has both of its star running backs, Kalen Ballage and Demario Richard, healthy, and they rushed for 205 yards and 4.5 yards per carry versus a stout Utah defensive front. While USC has taken on my sixth-toughest schedule, Arizona State isn't far behind at No. 8. USC is playing a ninth straight week and in the second of back-to-back away games. I'll call for another upset at night in the desert.
ATS pick: Arizona State
Score: Arizona State 31, USC 28
San Diego State Aztecs (-9.5) at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Steele: San Diego State was playing with unbeaten pressure two weeks ago and fell behind Boise State 14-0 after allowing touchdowns via a fumble return and punt return. They went through their bubble burst last week after their New Years bowl game thoughts were crushed and lost to a red-hot Fresno State squad. Both losses came against teams with top-notch defenses, but that's not the case with Hawaii. While San Diego State's offensive line is banged up, they will have success versus a Hawaii defensive front that is allowing 5.9 yards per carry in Mountain West play. The Aztecs will be angry off a pair of losses, and in their last road game, they squashed UNLV, 41-10. In Hawaii's last home game versus one of the top Mountain West teams (Colorado State), it lost by 30, and the Aztecs are at least as good as the Rams and won at Arizona State by 10 points earlier in the year.
ATS pick: San Diego State
Score: San Diego State 34, Hawai'i 17
UCLA Bruins at No. 12 Washington Huskies (-18)
Coughlin: If you read my column or listen to the Behind The Bets podcast, you know I will give the advantage to a team coming off a bye at this point in the season. That is exactly what we have here. The last time we saw the Huskies, they were beaten by Arizona State in Tempe while scoring only one touchdown. The Bruins come in giving up 494 yards, including 303 yards on the ground. They have also lost seven consecutive road games and allowed more than 40 points on four occasions this season, including three road defeats this season -- Memphis, Stanford and Arizona -- in which they allowed an average of 51 points. I think coach Chris Petersen gets it right here and the Huskies take care of business pretty easily and cover the number.
ATS pick: Washington
Score: Washington 48, UCLA 17
Arkansas Razorbacks at Ole Miss Rebels (-3.5 at MGM Grand)
Coughlin: This game is about the situation both of these teams are in when they face off on Saturday. Arkansas is still looking for its first conference win and Ole Miss just lost starting quarterback Shea Patterson, who was leading the league in passing yards. The Rebels now turn to Jordan Ta'amu to run their offense, which obviously favors the Razorbacks. While both defenses are not the best, I trust Arkansas to stop a new quarterback's passing attack more than I trust a Rebels defense that allows more than 470 yards of offense per game, including over 260 yards on the ground. I worry that this lost season for Ole Miss is about to get worse, and I'll take the Hogs to win.
ATS pick: Arkansas
Score: Arkansas 31, Ole Miss 30
Texas Longhorns (-8) at Baylor Bears
Coughlin: The Boys from Waco are still looking for that first win of the season, and what better way to get it than to knock off the biggest program in the state. I watched Baylor last week come back and cover in fantastic fashion versus West Virginia, thanks to the efforts of true freshman Charlie Brewer. Now, Matt Rhule has a little decision to make at quarterback. Does he go with Brewer or stay with Zach Smith? As crazy as this sounds, I think either guy can get the job done. The issue I have in this game is actually the Longhorns offense. The status of quarterback Sam Ehlinger is unknown, and the Longhorns cannot run the football. Last week against an average Oklahoma State defense, they ran for 42 yards on 33 carries. I think the Longhorns hang on for a close win, but Baylor covers.
ATS pick: Baylor
Score: Texas 24, Baylor 21
Louisville Cardinals (-3) at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Fallica: If a team can give up 45 points versus Boston College at home, I wouldn't feel great about laying points for them on the road. Yes, Louisville won in Tallahassee last week, but I think that three FSU turnovers had a lot to do with that. The Deacs have committed just four turnovers all season, so they probably aren't going to help Louisville much in that regard. Wake Forest did as good a job keeping Louisville in check last year before the defense finally broke late in the game; it was 12-10 Wake Forest, and Lamar Jackson was 5-16 through the air after three quarters. Wake has been close a lot lately and just failed to finish off the upsets. This is still a top-20 defense, and it seems like the Deacons are overdue to close one of these out.
ATS pick: Wake Forest
Score: Wake Forest 26, Louisville 24
No. 16 Michigan State Spartans (-2.5) at Northwestern Wildcats
Fallica: Michigan State's first three Big Ten wins were by a combined 14 points, and the Spartans trailed Indiana in the fourth quarter last week before unleashing a bad beat on the IU backers. I see no reason not to expect another close game this week. If you look at the Northwestern schedule, there's a real chance the Wildcats could win out and finish 9-3 and have a shot at a 10-win season in a bowl game, but there is a long way to go. This Michigan State offense is 10th in the Big Ten and 105th in the FBS in yards per play. The weakness of the Northwestern defense has been in the passing game (allowing just 121 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry), and I don't know if Michigan State is the offense that will exploit that. Northwestern has typically played well in the underdog role, and with the Spartans having Penn State and Ohio State on the slate over the next two weeks, this could be a spot where they get knocked off.
ATS pick: Northwestern
Score: Northwestern 23, Michigan State 20
No. 11 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-7.5) at No. 22 West Virginia Mountaineers
Fallica: After a close call in Austin last week, I expect Oklahoma State to have a lot more offensive success this week and take a lot more shots down the field, as West Virginia's defense is suspect. The Mountaineers' defense is 116th in the FBS and last in the Big 12 in yards per completion -- and 105th nationally in yards per play. That's a problem against a team that is third nationally in yards per play and sixth nationally in yards per completion. In other words, big plays are in the works. I can see WVU being a fairly trendy home 'dog, and while I love a good home 'dog, I just don't like this matchup for them. Oklahoma State survives the trap before next week's Bedlam series.
ATS pick: Oklahoma State
Score: Oklahoma State 41, West Virginia 31
CFB VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN insider
10/26/17
Our experts are back with their Week 9 college football picks. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica will pick out their top plays from some of the week's best matchups. It's all here in one file for your perusing pleasure.
Here are the best bets for Week 9 of the college football season.
ATS record:
Phil Steele: 4-3 in Week 8 (27-35-1 season)
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin: 4-1 in Week 8 (24-13-2 season)
Chris Fallica: 3-5 in Week 8 (31-27 season)
Note: Lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Common games
No. 2 Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes (-6.5)
Steele: Ohio State is playing with legit revenge after last year's loss in Happy Valley cost them a spot in the Big Ten Championship game. Urban Meyer is 24-10-1 versus the Vegas experts in revenge games. The Buckeyes enter fresh off a bye, while Penn State just gave an all-out effort in front of their white-out crowd versus Michigan. This year's Ohio State team reminds me of the 2014 version, which lost in its second game and then rolled to the national title. Since falling to Oklahoma in their second game this year, the Buckeyes have been rolling along, winning by an average of 42 points per game and outgaining their opponents by 377 yards per game. J.T. Barrett has a sensational 21-1 ratio, and a statement win here will catapult him into the Heisman Trophy discussion.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 34, Penn State 23
Coughlin: Urban Meyer's teams are 20-1 after a bye week over his career and 5-0 against top-25 opponents. The Buckeyes have scored 50 points and produced more than 500 yards in each of their past four wins, the latest being a 56-14 blowout at Nebraska two weeks ago. Revenge is on the Buckeyes' minds. Still, I can't pass on taking the Lions here. I think their offense is as good as there is in the conference. They have faced adversity on the road already this year, winning on the last play of the game at Iowa. Most importantly, I think their defense will keep them in this game; they haven't given up 20 points in a game yet this year. Penn State wins on the road.
ATS pick: Penn State
Score: Penn State 27, Ohio State 24
Fallica: I don't understand why everyone is playing up an Ohio State revenge theme here. Yes, Penn State beat the Buckeyes last year, but OSU went to the College Football Playoff instead of Penn State. The Nittany Lions probably have just as much of a grudge with OSU (even though the playoff debate last year was really between PSU and No. 4 Washington). Under Meyer, Ohio State has been far from great against top-10 teams at home, getting soundly beaten by Oklahoma in September, beating Michigan in overtime last year in a controversial finish, beating a Nebraska team that should have been nowhere near the top 10 and losing to a Michigan State and its backup QB in 2015.
Will the Ohio State offense open up in a big game? Is the resurgence in recent weeks truly a resurgence, or is it the result of playing no team of signifance? Will the weather allow the offenses to operate carefree, as rain is a near certainty. I don't think Penn State will have a letdown after last week's win over Michigan mainly because the game was a blowout and it didn't have to be mentally sharp for four full quarters. Factoring in the weather, the stakes, two top-12 defenses in terms of efficiency, this has the makings of a lower-scoring game in which Penn State has a chance to win. Too many questions for me to take a stand with the side, so I will lean toward the under on the total points.
Pick: Under 56.5 points
Score: Ohio State 27, Penn State 24
No. 14 NC State Wolfpack at No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-7.5)
Steele: The Irish come in averaging 318 rushing yards per game and 7.1 yards per carry, but have played only two top-25 rush defenses. They were held to 55 rushing yards and 1.5 yards per carry by Georgia, and 182 rushing yards and 4.6 yards per carry by Michigan State. North Carolina State has my No. 3 rated defensive line in the country and is allowing just 91 rushing yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry. Notre Dame quarterback Brandon Wimbush is completing only 52.3 percent of his passes, so there's not a big passing threat when the running game struggles. The Irish are holding foes to 33 yards per game below their average while allowing just 3.6 yards per carry. Take the under.
Pick: Under 58 points
Score: Notre Dame 31, NC State 24
Coughlin: This is a game that features great matchups on both sides of the ball. When Notre Dame has the ball, its sixth-ranked rushing offense faces off against the sixth-ranked rushing defense. When the other units are on the field, you'll see a Notre Dame defense that has remarkably turned 13 of the 17 turnovers it has created into touchdowns. But will it get those turnovers against NC State quarterback Ryan Finley, who hasn't thrown an interception in 313 consecutive passes dating to last season, the longest active streak in the country? So, what gives? I think my favorite offensive line in the country wears down the Pack, and the Irish win and cover as that fight song plays a lot more in the second half than it did in the first half.
ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 29, NC State 20
Fallica: Notre Dame's performance in a monsoon in Raleigh last year might have been the low point in a season of low points for the Irish. This year's team is playing with an edge and has throttled everyone except Georgia. I sense there will be no letdown this week for the Irish. NC State has a very good defensive line and had two weeks to prepare, but the Notre Dame offensive line and running game hasn't been stopped by anyone outside of Georgia, so I like the Irish to continue their winning ways, making each game bigger as the season goes on. One nugget for you: As good as the NC State defense has been, it is Notre Dame's defense which is ranked 16th nationally in expected points, 25 spots higher than the Wolfpack.
ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 34, NC State 24
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at No. 7 Clemson Tigers (-14)
Steele: In the past two years, Clemson has had just three and four returning starters on defense and faced the complex Georgia Tech offense early in the year with those inexperienced defenses. The result? They held Georgia Tech, which averaged 272 rushing yards per game over those two years versus every other opponent, to just 71 and 95 yards rushing. This year, Clemson has seven starters back on defense, its most veteran group in three years, and is off a loss. The Tigers also had a bye last week to help prep for the option. The toughest defense Georgia Tech has faced this year was Miami, and the Hurricanes had a 481-281 yard edge against them.
ATS pick: Clemson
Score: Clemson 31, Georgia Tech 16
Fallica: I'm taking a little bit of a leap of faith, assuming Kelly Bryant will be good to go by Saturday night, but Clemson played its best football of the season last year after the loss to Pittsburgh. The same could ring true this year. Tech is two heartbreaking losses away from being unbeaten at this point. This has been a really bad matchup for Tech the last couple of seasons, as Brent Venables' defense has done a great job versus the Jackets, holding them to 230 and 124 yards. The Tigers have outgained Georgia Tech by over 300 yards in each of the last two meetings. The road game next week at NC State gives me a little pause as to laying the big number, but I think the more pressing concerns of getting back to playing good football and gaining confidence again outweighs that.
ATS pick: Clemson
Score: Clemson 35, Georgia Tech 14
Thursday games
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Northern Illinois Huskies (-7)
Fallica: EMU may be on a five-game losing streak, but this team hasn't quit. Each of those five losses has come by seven points or less (a combined 20 points). In fact, dating back to last year, each of Eastern Michigan's past seven losses are by seven points or fewer. Chris Creighton has done a great job in Ypsilanti, getting the Eagles to a bowl last season. EMU has to win four of its final five games to again reach bowl eligibility. Looking at the schedule, it's doable, so I expect EMU to again give a great effort in an underdog role.
ATS pick: Eastern Michigan
Score: Northern Illinois 30, Eastern Michigan 27
Saturday games
Tennessee Volunteers at Kentucky Wildcats (-4)
Steele: Kentucky was handled at the line of scrimmage by Mississippi State, showing that its No. 10 rush defense ranking was inflated by taking on weak foes. Tennessee has faced the much tougher schedule (my No. 17 versus No. 53) with its four losses coming to foes that have a combined record of 23-5. Tennessee is an amazing 31-1 straight up in this series, and the one loss was by three points. Kentucky has not beaten Tennessee by more than three points since 1981, and they play every year. Tennessee has won the past five meetings by 23 points per game. Yes, Tennessee has not scored an offensive touchdown in its past 14 quarters, but it did just face Georgia (No. 2 defense), Alabama (No. 1 defense) and South Carolina (No. 19 defense), and now it takes on my No. 60 defense. Kentucky has been outgained by every FBS foe it has faced this year (minus 86 yards per game). Butch Jones' job and a bowl season are on the line for Tennessee, and the Vols will pull off the upset.
ATS pick: Tennessee
Score: Tennessee 24, Kentucky 23
Mississippi State Bulldogs (-1) at Texas A&M Aggies
Steele: Texas A&M was ranked No. 4 in the initial playoff rankings last year and then was upset in Starksville as a 10.5-point favorite, which puts the Aggies in revenge mode this week. While Kevin Sumlin has struggled in October, A&M has actually covered both games against the Vegas line this month. The Aggies lost to Alabama by only one possession at College Station three weeks ago and enter fresh off a bye, giving true freshman quarterback Kellen Mond more practice repetitions. Mississippi State is being outgained by 47 yards per game on the road, while A&M is outgaining their opponents by 74 yards per game at home. The Aggies have played just one bad half of football all season, and I'll call for minor upset as Texas A&M should be favored in this game.
ATS pick: Texas A&M
Score: Texas A&M 30, Mississippi State 23
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Purdue Boilermakers (-5.5)
Steele: Nebraska is fresh off a bye and its defense had been making major strides under new defensive coordinator Bob Diaco until it ran into the percolating Ohio State offense. The 633 yards allowed looks alarming, but it was only 65 yards more than the Buckeyes' average. Even including that, they've held foes to 81 yards per game below their season average over the last five games. Purdue is off three straight misleading finals. It got a 76-yard interception return touchdown versus Minnesota with 10 seconds left to win by 14, it was outgained by 273 yards versus Wisconsin but lost by only eight, and it finished with a 474-217 yard edge versus Rutgers but lost by two. Versus similar Big Ten schedules, Nebraska is even in net yards per game, while Purdue is minus-35 yards per game. In their four recent meetings, Nebraska has been favored by an average of 17 points per game and is now almost a touchdown 'dog. Tanner Lee is completing 60 percent with a 6-1 ratio his past three games despite facing Ohio State and Wisconsin in that stretch. I'll call for the Huskers to pull the upset.
ATS pick: Nebraska
Score: Nebraska 24, Purdue 23
Florida Intl Golden Panthers at Marshall Thundering Herd (-17)
Steele: Marshall keeps delivering just about every week. In Conference USA play, the Herd are plus-153 yards per game, as their defense has allowed just 227 yards per game. FIU has taken on a light C-USA schedule, but is still minus-42 yards per game, being held to 67 yards per game less than its opponents allow on average. In C-USA play, Marshall holds foes to 119 yards per game below their season average, and FIU allows 75 yards per game more than its opponents average. Marshall's only loss is to powerful NC State, and the Herd were were only outgained by 34 yards. Marshall is hosting the game and playing with revenge. They have the edge on offense, defense and special teams.
ATS pick: Marshall
Score: Marshall 33, Florida International 6
No. 21 USC Trojans (-3.5) at Arizona State Sun Devils
Steele: While USC is 14-3 in this series, it split the past six meetings. Last year, Arizona State was a banged-up team with 20 or more players on the weekly injury report. They were missing upward of 11 starters in some games. This year, they have just two players on the injury report. USC is the banged-up team this year, with more than 20 players injured. Sam Darnold is one of those players, but he will start. Notre Dame ran the ball down the Trojan's throat with 377 rushing yards at a 8.0 yards per rush rate. Arizona State has both of its star running backs, Kalen Ballage and Demario Richard, healthy, and they rushed for 205 yards and 4.5 yards per carry versus a stout Utah defensive front. While USC has taken on my sixth-toughest schedule, Arizona State isn't far behind at No. 8. USC is playing a ninth straight week and in the second of back-to-back away games. I'll call for another upset at night in the desert.
ATS pick: Arizona State
Score: Arizona State 31, USC 28
San Diego State Aztecs (-9.5) at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Steele: San Diego State was playing with unbeaten pressure two weeks ago and fell behind Boise State 14-0 after allowing touchdowns via a fumble return and punt return. They went through their bubble burst last week after their New Years bowl game thoughts were crushed and lost to a red-hot Fresno State squad. Both losses came against teams with top-notch defenses, but that's not the case with Hawaii. While San Diego State's offensive line is banged up, they will have success versus a Hawaii defensive front that is allowing 5.9 yards per carry in Mountain West play. The Aztecs will be angry off a pair of losses, and in their last road game, they squashed UNLV, 41-10. In Hawaii's last home game versus one of the top Mountain West teams (Colorado State), it lost by 30, and the Aztecs are at least as good as the Rams and won at Arizona State by 10 points earlier in the year.
ATS pick: San Diego State
Score: San Diego State 34, Hawai'i 17
UCLA Bruins at No. 12 Washington Huskies (-18)
Coughlin: If you read my column or listen to the Behind The Bets podcast, you know I will give the advantage to a team coming off a bye at this point in the season. That is exactly what we have here. The last time we saw the Huskies, they were beaten by Arizona State in Tempe while scoring only one touchdown. The Bruins come in giving up 494 yards, including 303 yards on the ground. They have also lost seven consecutive road games and allowed more than 40 points on four occasions this season, including three road defeats this season -- Memphis, Stanford and Arizona -- in which they allowed an average of 51 points. I think coach Chris Petersen gets it right here and the Huskies take care of business pretty easily and cover the number.
ATS pick: Washington
Score: Washington 48, UCLA 17
Arkansas Razorbacks at Ole Miss Rebels (-3.5 at MGM Grand)
Coughlin: This game is about the situation both of these teams are in when they face off on Saturday. Arkansas is still looking for its first conference win and Ole Miss just lost starting quarterback Shea Patterson, who was leading the league in passing yards. The Rebels now turn to Jordan Ta'amu to run their offense, which obviously favors the Razorbacks. While both defenses are not the best, I trust Arkansas to stop a new quarterback's passing attack more than I trust a Rebels defense that allows more than 470 yards of offense per game, including over 260 yards on the ground. I worry that this lost season for Ole Miss is about to get worse, and I'll take the Hogs to win.
ATS pick: Arkansas
Score: Arkansas 31, Ole Miss 30
Texas Longhorns (-8) at Baylor Bears
Coughlin: The Boys from Waco are still looking for that first win of the season, and what better way to get it than to knock off the biggest program in the state. I watched Baylor last week come back and cover in fantastic fashion versus West Virginia, thanks to the efforts of true freshman Charlie Brewer. Now, Matt Rhule has a little decision to make at quarterback. Does he go with Brewer or stay with Zach Smith? As crazy as this sounds, I think either guy can get the job done. The issue I have in this game is actually the Longhorns offense. The status of quarterback Sam Ehlinger is unknown, and the Longhorns cannot run the football. Last week against an average Oklahoma State defense, they ran for 42 yards on 33 carries. I think the Longhorns hang on for a close win, but Baylor covers.
ATS pick: Baylor
Score: Texas 24, Baylor 21
Louisville Cardinals (-3) at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Fallica: If a team can give up 45 points versus Boston College at home, I wouldn't feel great about laying points for them on the road. Yes, Louisville won in Tallahassee last week, but I think that three FSU turnovers had a lot to do with that. The Deacs have committed just four turnovers all season, so they probably aren't going to help Louisville much in that regard. Wake Forest did as good a job keeping Louisville in check last year before the defense finally broke late in the game; it was 12-10 Wake Forest, and Lamar Jackson was 5-16 through the air after three quarters. Wake has been close a lot lately and just failed to finish off the upsets. This is still a top-20 defense, and it seems like the Deacons are overdue to close one of these out.
ATS pick: Wake Forest
Score: Wake Forest 26, Louisville 24
No. 16 Michigan State Spartans (-2.5) at Northwestern Wildcats
Fallica: Michigan State's first three Big Ten wins were by a combined 14 points, and the Spartans trailed Indiana in the fourth quarter last week before unleashing a bad beat on the IU backers. I see no reason not to expect another close game this week. If you look at the Northwestern schedule, there's a real chance the Wildcats could win out and finish 9-3 and have a shot at a 10-win season in a bowl game, but there is a long way to go. This Michigan State offense is 10th in the Big Ten and 105th in the FBS in yards per play. The weakness of the Northwestern defense has been in the passing game (allowing just 121 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry), and I don't know if Michigan State is the offense that will exploit that. Northwestern has typically played well in the underdog role, and with the Spartans having Penn State and Ohio State on the slate over the next two weeks, this could be a spot where they get knocked off.
ATS pick: Northwestern
Score: Northwestern 23, Michigan State 20
No. 11 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-7.5) at No. 22 West Virginia Mountaineers
Fallica: After a close call in Austin last week, I expect Oklahoma State to have a lot more offensive success this week and take a lot more shots down the field, as West Virginia's defense is suspect. The Mountaineers' defense is 116th in the FBS and last in the Big 12 in yards per completion -- and 105th nationally in yards per play. That's a problem against a team that is third nationally in yards per play and sixth nationally in yards per completion. In other words, big plays are in the works. I can see WVU being a fairly trendy home 'dog, and while I love a good home 'dog, I just don't like this matchup for them. Oklahoma State survives the trap before next week's Bedlam series.
ATS pick: Oklahoma State
Score: Oklahoma State 41, West Virginia 31
