Best bets on Week 8 NFL games
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
It's Week 8 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Minnesota Vikings (-9.5) at Cleveland Browns in London
Total: 38
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent Minnesota
Phil Steele's take: Last week, I pointed out that Cleveland and Tennessee were close statistically, but the Browns had a 50-13 scoring edge in the fourth quarter when the game is out of reach, which skews those stats. Cleveland does have the No. 9 defense in the NFL and has outgained its opponents by a yard despite being 0-7. Last week Tennessee had a pair of first-and-goals that resulted in a total of three points and Cleveland was able to force overtime. Minnesota is stronger than Tennessee on both offense and defense, and while the Titans are being outgained by three yards per game, Minnesota is plus-73 yards per game. DeShone Kizer has a 3-11 TD-INT ratio this season which doesn't bode well when facing a Vikings defense that is No. 1 in the NFL the past four weeks (allowing just 240 yards per game with 4 sacks per game).
They face a Browns offensive line that will be without left tackle Joe Thomas in the starting lineup for the first time since he was drafted. Last week the Vikings held Baltimore to 140 yards before a garbage-time drive for a touchdown with no time left. Call this another one-sided London game as the Vikings take control of the NFC North with a bye on deck (Vikings are 8-0 ATS before a bye).
ATS pick: Minnesota -9.5
Warren Sharp's take: The Vikings offense has lost players at multiple position levels, including their starting QB, RB and WR1. Yet this team still has the 11th rated offense against the fifth-toughest schedule of defenses. After playing three of their past four games against defenses that rank 13th or better, the Vikings now get to face the 19th-rated unit of the Browns, which has had the benefit of facing the fourth-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. Cleveland is a mess offensively, ranking as the NFL's worst unit, and seemingly doesn't know what to do at the most important position on the field, its starting QB. In London, this game adds another layer of messiness. I'm staying clear.
ATS pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Minnesota 22, Cleveland 13
The pick: Cleveland and the under -- Cleveland +9.5, 38
Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
Total: 45.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 67 percent Oakland
Phil Steele's take: Now that Derek Carr is seemingly back to form, the buy sign is back on for the Oakland Raiders. Carr threw for 417 yards in the win versus the Chiefs, and with a record of 3-4 heading to Buffalo, they cannot afford many more losses. Buffalo is a surprising 4-2, but is minus-45 yards per game (outgained in every game except the opener versus the Jets). I feel the Raiders (with a healthy Carr) are a playoff team and the Bills are more of a pretender. I think the wrong team is favored here, but I'm not confident enough to make it an official play.
ATS pick: Lean Oakland +2.5
Warren Sharp's take: The Bills defense has looked great thus far, ranking eighth in efficiency, but they have yet to face a good passing offense, like what the Raiders can bring. In fact, the highest-ranked passing offense the Bills defense has faced was the Buccaneers from last week, who put up 27 on them. All of the other passing offenses Buffalo has faced rank 14th or worse. On the other side of the ball, the Raiders defense has faced one good rushing offense since Week 1, and that was the Chiefs last week, who rolled up 30 points. The Bills run offense hasn't been as strong as in years past, but that's schedule-related for the most part, as they have faced the Nos. 1, 5 and 6 rated run defenses in three of their past five games. I think LeSean McCoy will have a solid game, but I expect this Bills pass defense to be tested.
ATS pick: Lean Oakland +2.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Buffalo 23, Oakland 21
The pick: Oakland and the under -- Oakland +2.5, 45.5
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-10.5)
Total: 42
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent Indianapolis
Phil Steele's take: This is a desperate Bengals team taking on a Colts team whose five losses have been by an average of 21.8 points per game. The Colts have only trailed in two games at the half this year, but struggle in the second half. Last week a solid Jaguars defensive front had 10 sacks versus the Colts, and the Bengals defensive line is equally as impressive. Cincinnati is just 2-4 overall, but my computer is showing the Bengals with a 420-242 yard edge. The Bengals go from facing one of the top teams in the NFL to one of the weakest and won't overlook anyone.
ATS pick: Lean Cincinnati -10.5
Erin Rynning's take: Once again the Bengals' offense was stuck in neutral -- and perhaps reverse in the second half -- last week against the Steelers. However, they catch a huge drop in class against this Colts' defense. In fact, the Bengals schedule is littered with top-ranked or underrated defensive units, while the Colts ran 31st in yards allowed and dead last allowing 31.7 points per game. The Colts defense will also suffer without star rookie Malik Hooker.
Pick: Over 42
Warren Sharp's take: It's easy to suggest that the Bengals aren't a good team, especially when looking at their 2-4 record and seeing that their only wins have come against the Browns and potentially overrated Bills. But the reality is this team is on the right trajectory offensively after replacing their coordinator. They played in a downpour against the Bills and ran into a buzz saw in Pittsburgh, in a game that their run defense played worse than expected. Fortunately, the Colts don't have Le'Veon Bell or the Steelers' offensive line. Offensively, the Colts' issues will be their pass protection, which ranks dead last against the third-easiest schedule, and the fact the Bengals run defense ranks sixth and the Colts run offense ranks 26th.
Lean: Bengals -10.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Cincinnati 25, Indianapolis 16
The pick: Indianapolis and the under -- Indianapolis +10, 42
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (-7)
Total: 48.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 66 percent New England
Phil Steele's take: The Patriots' defense had a porous start to the year allowing 32 points per game, after they finished 2016 as the league's top unit (allowing just 15.6 PPG). It has shown solid improvement over the past three weeks, allowing just 12.6 PPG. The Chargers come in averaging just 330 yards per game on offense and travel across the country to play at 10 a.m. PT. Did you also know that Bill Belichick is on an 8-0 straight up and 7-1 ATS run the week before a bye, winning by an average of 24 points per game? I'll give a lean in the direction of the Patriots in this one.
ATS pick: Lean on New England
Warren Sharp's take: The Chargers defense is battle-tested. They've faced top-10 offenses of the Chiefs, Eagles and Raiders and still rank as a top-half unit that has been much better against the pass (eighth) than the run (27th). This could turn into a run-heavy game from the Patriots if they choose to prevent the strong pass rush of the Chargers (fifth) from reaching Tom Brady. The Chargers must resist the temptation to run the ball too often using Melvin Gordon. Even though the Patriots rank 26th against the run, New England ranks 28th against the pass. And running is the weakness of the Chargers, as they rank dead last in rushing success rate and third-worst in rushing efficiency. Meanwhile, they are a top-10 passing offense, but their play callers tend to run far too often on first down. These first-down Chargers runs are worst in the league, posting a 26 percent success rate (average is 44 percent), which means they get put well behind schedule on second down. And punts in New England are no way to beat the Patriots.
ATS pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New England 29, Los Angeles Chargers 22
The pick: Los Angeles Chargers and the over -- L.A. Chargers +7.5, 48.5
Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-9)
Total: 47.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 54 percent New Orleans
Phil Steele's take: The Bears are now a perfect 4-0 versus the Vegas number as a home 'dog, but last week beat Carolina despite having a 20-5 first down disadvantage. They are just 1-2 on the road with their two losses mostly due to being minus-7 in turnovers. I did not have New Orleans as a playoff team at the start of the year, and it opened up 0-2 with a defense allowing 512 yards per game. The past four weeks their defense has allowed just 270 yards per game, which is No. 5 in the NFL in that span. It has gone 4-0 versus the Vegas number and won games by an average of 33-17. Making that number even more impressive is that the team led Detroit 45-10 before only winning 52-38. The Bears defense is holding foes to 47 yards below their season average, which is fifth best in the NFL, so I like the under in this one.
ATS pick: Lean under 47.5
Erin Rynning's take: To say the Bears are keeping things conservative for rookie signal-caller Mitchell Trubisky would be an understatement. The past two games have seen the Bears run the ball 80 times to just 24 passes. No question, in typical John Fox fashion, the Bears are trying to win with the run game and defense. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is doing impressive work with Chicago's stop unit once again as it has gone 25 straight possessions without allowing a touchdown. Yes, the Saints are still all about Drew Brees and the passing game. However, they are desperately trying to be a well-rounded football team that can count on their run game and defense as well. I like this game to stay under the total.
Pick: Under 47.5
Warren Sharp's take: Chicago did not play well enough offensively last week to win the game, but the takeaway should not be that this team and offense is terrible. Yet that is the main takeaway I'm hearing everywhere: Trubisky completed just four passes last week and there is no way that this Bears team can throw the ball that infrequently and have any success against this high-powered Saints offense. The Saints very well may blow the Bears out in just their third home game since the season started -- after all, they've won four straight by at least nine points. But don't sleep on the one place the Bears have a decided edge: running the football. The Saints defense ranks 29th vs. the run, and that comes having played four of six games against bottom-10 run offenses, including the 29th-rated Lions and 31st-rated Dolphins in two of their past three games.
Lean: Bears +9
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New Orleans 28, Chicago 18
The pick: New Orleans and the under -- New Orleans -9, 48
Atlanta Falcons (-5) at New York Jets
Total: 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 71 percent Atlanta
Phil Steele's take: Is there a jinx for the loser of the Super Bowl? The Falcons seem to be another team that is struggling after losing the big game. Atlanta is plus-45 yards per game with the No. 7 offense and No. 14 defense in the NFL, but could easily be 1-5 right now. The Jets blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead against Miami last week or this team (which was supposed to be tanking this season) would be 4-3. The Jets are minus-46 yards per game, so they may be doing it with smoke and mirrors, but they should take this down to the wire with a shot at their third outright home upset this year.
ATS pick: Lean N.Y. Jets
Warren Sharp's take: The Falcons offensive struggles entirely relate to their passing offense, and specifically what they do on first down and when/where they choose to target Julio Jones. New OC Steve Sarkisian made major overhauls in those areas, and this offense is a far less explosive pass offense on early downs. That said, they are tremendous rushing the football and play the Jets who have been at their best this year against teams unable to run the football (with the lone exception being their win over the Jaguars, which the Jets won in overtime). Off of a humiliating performance up in New England, it's hard to understand the mentality of the Falcons in this spot. They should be able to run on the Jets, but the Falcons defense has been extremely leaky.
ATS pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Atlanta 25, New York Jets 21
The pick: New York Jets -- N.Y. Jets +5
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-12.5)
Total: 45.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent Philadelphia
Phil Steele's take: After setting an NFL record by losing five consecutive games by three points or fewer, that streak was abruptly ended last week for the 49ers at home in a 40-10 loss to Dallas. Philadelphia just lost one of the best left tackles in the NFL in Jason Peters, but I still feel it is one of the best teams in the league. This would classify as a sandwich game as they just beat rival Washington on Monday night and have Denver on deck. San Francisco is on its fourth road trip in five weeks and are minus-76 yards per game (Eagles at plus-42). While Philadelphia has covered four in a row, I'll go ahead and pass here as double-digit favorites are just 2-5 ATS in the NFL this year.
ATS pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: The big question mark in this matchup is the health of the Eagles. They lost both LT Jason Peters and LB Jordan Hicks for the season in their game against the Redskins. Inevitably that will take a toll -- perhaps not as much against the 49ers as it would against a great team, but it will be a factor. The hidden story from last week's blowout was the performance of the 49ers on the ground. Even in the first half, before it was total garbage time, the 49ers gained 5.2 yards per carry and posted a 54 percent success rate. There is no doubt the Eagles are one of the best teams in the league, but with such a high spread and Carlos Hyde's health improving, there is optimism of a backdoor cover and a potential flat spot for the Eagles after that big win over the Redskins.
Lean: 49ers +13
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Philadelphia 29, San Francisco 16
The pick: Philadelphia -- Philadelphia -12.5
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent Carolina
Phil Steele's take: Tampa Bay is just 3-9 ATS the past four years as a home favorite, and I feel the wrong team is favored here. When all things are equal, I will always go with the best defense, and there is no doubt the Panthers have that edge (especially if Luke Kuechly is back on the field). Tampa Bay is allowing 409 yards per game, which is 92 yards per game more than its opponents usually average (No. 31 in the NFL). Carolina allowed just five first downs last week and is yielding 262 yards per game this year, which is 93 yards per game below what its opponents usually gain (best mark in the NFL). Tampa has an edge on offense and are at home, but neither is enough to compensate for the huge defensive edge.
ATS pick: Carolina +2.5
Erin Rynning's take: During the Panther's epic 15-1 regular season in 2015, seemingly everything went right for the franchise. They outscored their opponents by 192 points with an amazing plus-20 in turnover ratio. Well, it's seemingly trending the other way in 2017 as the Panthers are fine statistically, but own a minus-9 turnover ratio. Fortunately for the Panthers, the Buccaneers are a team that continues to make key mistakes on the football field. They're currently on a three-game losing streak, while losing in a variety of ways. The Panthers own the better run game and defense that gives them the winning edge in this matchup.
ATS pick: Carolina +2.5
Warren Sharp's take: The issue with the Panthers running game is the least discussed problem in the NFL. This team, for years a great rushing offense, simply cannot run the football. After averaging 1 yard per carry against the Lions, they averaged 3.2 yards per carry against the Eagles and 3.6 yards per carry against the Bears. It's not that the Panthers have played a brutal schedule of run defenses, either (they have faced the 26th rated schedule). However, the Tampa Bay defense has been extremely bad, and there is a very good chance the Panthers offense will get back on track. On the other side, Carolina ranks much stronger against the run than the pass, and while the Panthers are middle of the road defending explosive passes, the Bucs surprisingly rank 24th in the league in explosive passing offense.
ATS pick: Carolina +2.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Tampa Bay 23, Carolina 22
The pick: Carolina -- Carolina +2.5
Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5)
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 57 percent Houston
Phil Steele's take: I picked Seattle as one of my NFC favorites, and while the team sits at 4-2, it has looked a bit skittish throughout the year. The Texans lost two key players off their defensive front seven in Whitney Mercilus and J.J. Watt, but remain a top-10 defense. Seattle also lost Cliff Avril who led the team in sacks last year. Deshaun Watson took over as starting quarterback four weeks ago, and Houston has had the No. 4 offense in the NFL since (also No. 1 in scoring offense with 39.3 points per game in that span). Bill O'Brien has been an away 'dog all three times he has come off a bye, pulling outright upsets in each. I'm not sure if he'll do that again, but I do like the Texans to stay within the number.
ATS pick: Houston +5.5
Warren Sharp's take: The Texans defense has a perception that exceeds reality. In their game against the Patriots, a team they know well, New England posted a 48 percent successful pass rate. They effectively abandoned the run, and Brady threw for 378 yards on this defense, with a 71 percent completion rate, 11 YPA, 5 passing TDs and 0 interceptions while posting a 146-passer rating. In their game against the Chiefs, Kansas City had brutal starting field position all day, but in 10 drives they punted just once and drove the ball inside the Texans' 35 on nine of 10 drives (and inside the Texans' 25 in seven of those nine drives). And in both of those games, the Texans had the luxury of starting both Watt and Mercilus, who will miss this game. It will be difficult for the Texans to stop the passing offense of the Seahawks, which is explosive and dynamic, featuring the mobile Russell Wilson.
On the other side, the Seahawks defense has looked tremendous, but has faced some terrible offenses along the way, including the beat-up Giants, the Colts and the 49ers in three of its past five games. The Seahawks allowed the Rams to drive up and down the field on them in a misleading final score, and allowed 33 points to the Titans.
Lean: Seahawks -5.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Seattle 22, Houston 20
The pick: Houston and the under -- Houston +5.5, 46
Dallas Cowboys (-2) at Washington Redskins
Total: 49
PickCenter public consensus pick: 73 percent Dallas
Phil Steele's take: Both teams come in at 3-3 on the season with Dallas at plus-49 yards per game and Washington outgaining its foes by 44 yards per game. The visitor has covered six in a row in this series. Last year Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott were in just their second starts as rookies, but Dallas won here 27-23 as a 3.5-point 'dog. I like Dallas' offensive line, but I have questions about its secondary. The Cowboys have taken on two decent offenses (L.A. Rams and Green Bay Packers with Aaron Rodgers) and gave up 35 points in each. While I would generally lean with the over for these two high-powered offenses, the current weather forecast for Sunday have me passing here.
ATS pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: Three of the past four games in this series have been decided by five or fewer points, with the Cowboys coming from behind in two of them for victories. In fact, removing Week 17 games, five straight and 10 of the past 11 games have been decided by one score or less. Dallas has had the upper hand, but this game is clearly massive for the Redskins, having dropped their game last week to the Eagles. Dallas has yet to face a top-10 run defense (like the Redskins) since Week 2, when they lost 42-17 to the Broncos. Dallas has found its run game and is playing much better, but the question becomes is that purely because they have played bad run defenses? While Dallas returns the services of LB Sean Lee, the Cowboys still rank poorly year to date and should allow the Redskins to prepare an extremely balanced game plan.
Lean: Redskins +2
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Washington 25, Dallas 23
The pick: Washington and the under -- Washingtom +2.5, 50
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
It's Week 8 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Minnesota Vikings (-9.5) at Cleveland Browns in London
Total: 38
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent Minnesota
Phil Steele's take: Last week, I pointed out that Cleveland and Tennessee were close statistically, but the Browns had a 50-13 scoring edge in the fourth quarter when the game is out of reach, which skews those stats. Cleveland does have the No. 9 defense in the NFL and has outgained its opponents by a yard despite being 0-7. Last week Tennessee had a pair of first-and-goals that resulted in a total of three points and Cleveland was able to force overtime. Minnesota is stronger than Tennessee on both offense and defense, and while the Titans are being outgained by three yards per game, Minnesota is plus-73 yards per game. DeShone Kizer has a 3-11 TD-INT ratio this season which doesn't bode well when facing a Vikings defense that is No. 1 in the NFL the past four weeks (allowing just 240 yards per game with 4 sacks per game).
They face a Browns offensive line that will be without left tackle Joe Thomas in the starting lineup for the first time since he was drafted. Last week the Vikings held Baltimore to 140 yards before a garbage-time drive for a touchdown with no time left. Call this another one-sided London game as the Vikings take control of the NFC North with a bye on deck (Vikings are 8-0 ATS before a bye).
ATS pick: Minnesota -9.5
Warren Sharp's take: The Vikings offense has lost players at multiple position levels, including their starting QB, RB and WR1. Yet this team still has the 11th rated offense against the fifth-toughest schedule of defenses. After playing three of their past four games against defenses that rank 13th or better, the Vikings now get to face the 19th-rated unit of the Browns, which has had the benefit of facing the fourth-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. Cleveland is a mess offensively, ranking as the NFL's worst unit, and seemingly doesn't know what to do at the most important position on the field, its starting QB. In London, this game adds another layer of messiness. I'm staying clear.
ATS pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Minnesota 22, Cleveland 13
The pick: Cleveland and the under -- Cleveland +9.5, 38
Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
Total: 45.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 67 percent Oakland
Phil Steele's take: Now that Derek Carr is seemingly back to form, the buy sign is back on for the Oakland Raiders. Carr threw for 417 yards in the win versus the Chiefs, and with a record of 3-4 heading to Buffalo, they cannot afford many more losses. Buffalo is a surprising 4-2, but is minus-45 yards per game (outgained in every game except the opener versus the Jets). I feel the Raiders (with a healthy Carr) are a playoff team and the Bills are more of a pretender. I think the wrong team is favored here, but I'm not confident enough to make it an official play.
ATS pick: Lean Oakland +2.5
Warren Sharp's take: The Bills defense has looked great thus far, ranking eighth in efficiency, but they have yet to face a good passing offense, like what the Raiders can bring. In fact, the highest-ranked passing offense the Bills defense has faced was the Buccaneers from last week, who put up 27 on them. All of the other passing offenses Buffalo has faced rank 14th or worse. On the other side of the ball, the Raiders defense has faced one good rushing offense since Week 1, and that was the Chiefs last week, who rolled up 30 points. The Bills run offense hasn't been as strong as in years past, but that's schedule-related for the most part, as they have faced the Nos. 1, 5 and 6 rated run defenses in three of their past five games. I think LeSean McCoy will have a solid game, but I expect this Bills pass defense to be tested.
ATS pick: Lean Oakland +2.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Buffalo 23, Oakland 21
The pick: Oakland and the under -- Oakland +2.5, 45.5
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-10.5)
Total: 42
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent Indianapolis
Phil Steele's take: This is a desperate Bengals team taking on a Colts team whose five losses have been by an average of 21.8 points per game. The Colts have only trailed in two games at the half this year, but struggle in the second half. Last week a solid Jaguars defensive front had 10 sacks versus the Colts, and the Bengals defensive line is equally as impressive. Cincinnati is just 2-4 overall, but my computer is showing the Bengals with a 420-242 yard edge. The Bengals go from facing one of the top teams in the NFL to one of the weakest and won't overlook anyone.
ATS pick: Lean Cincinnati -10.5
Erin Rynning's take: Once again the Bengals' offense was stuck in neutral -- and perhaps reverse in the second half -- last week against the Steelers. However, they catch a huge drop in class against this Colts' defense. In fact, the Bengals schedule is littered with top-ranked or underrated defensive units, while the Colts ran 31st in yards allowed and dead last allowing 31.7 points per game. The Colts defense will also suffer without star rookie Malik Hooker.
Pick: Over 42
Warren Sharp's take: It's easy to suggest that the Bengals aren't a good team, especially when looking at their 2-4 record and seeing that their only wins have come against the Browns and potentially overrated Bills. But the reality is this team is on the right trajectory offensively after replacing their coordinator. They played in a downpour against the Bills and ran into a buzz saw in Pittsburgh, in a game that their run defense played worse than expected. Fortunately, the Colts don't have Le'Veon Bell or the Steelers' offensive line. Offensively, the Colts' issues will be their pass protection, which ranks dead last against the third-easiest schedule, and the fact the Bengals run defense ranks sixth and the Colts run offense ranks 26th.
Lean: Bengals -10.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Cincinnati 25, Indianapolis 16
The pick: Indianapolis and the under -- Indianapolis +10, 42
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (-7)
Total: 48.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 66 percent New England
Phil Steele's take: The Patriots' defense had a porous start to the year allowing 32 points per game, after they finished 2016 as the league's top unit (allowing just 15.6 PPG). It has shown solid improvement over the past three weeks, allowing just 12.6 PPG. The Chargers come in averaging just 330 yards per game on offense and travel across the country to play at 10 a.m. PT. Did you also know that Bill Belichick is on an 8-0 straight up and 7-1 ATS run the week before a bye, winning by an average of 24 points per game? I'll give a lean in the direction of the Patriots in this one.
ATS pick: Lean on New England
Warren Sharp's take: The Chargers defense is battle-tested. They've faced top-10 offenses of the Chiefs, Eagles and Raiders and still rank as a top-half unit that has been much better against the pass (eighth) than the run (27th). This could turn into a run-heavy game from the Patriots if they choose to prevent the strong pass rush of the Chargers (fifth) from reaching Tom Brady. The Chargers must resist the temptation to run the ball too often using Melvin Gordon. Even though the Patriots rank 26th against the run, New England ranks 28th against the pass. And running is the weakness of the Chargers, as they rank dead last in rushing success rate and third-worst in rushing efficiency. Meanwhile, they are a top-10 passing offense, but their play callers tend to run far too often on first down. These first-down Chargers runs are worst in the league, posting a 26 percent success rate (average is 44 percent), which means they get put well behind schedule on second down. And punts in New England are no way to beat the Patriots.
ATS pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New England 29, Los Angeles Chargers 22
The pick: Los Angeles Chargers and the over -- L.A. Chargers +7.5, 48.5
Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-9)
Total: 47.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 54 percent New Orleans
Phil Steele's take: The Bears are now a perfect 4-0 versus the Vegas number as a home 'dog, but last week beat Carolina despite having a 20-5 first down disadvantage. They are just 1-2 on the road with their two losses mostly due to being minus-7 in turnovers. I did not have New Orleans as a playoff team at the start of the year, and it opened up 0-2 with a defense allowing 512 yards per game. The past four weeks their defense has allowed just 270 yards per game, which is No. 5 in the NFL in that span. It has gone 4-0 versus the Vegas number and won games by an average of 33-17. Making that number even more impressive is that the team led Detroit 45-10 before only winning 52-38. The Bears defense is holding foes to 47 yards below their season average, which is fifth best in the NFL, so I like the under in this one.
ATS pick: Lean under 47.5
Erin Rynning's take: To say the Bears are keeping things conservative for rookie signal-caller Mitchell Trubisky would be an understatement. The past two games have seen the Bears run the ball 80 times to just 24 passes. No question, in typical John Fox fashion, the Bears are trying to win with the run game and defense. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is doing impressive work with Chicago's stop unit once again as it has gone 25 straight possessions without allowing a touchdown. Yes, the Saints are still all about Drew Brees and the passing game. However, they are desperately trying to be a well-rounded football team that can count on their run game and defense as well. I like this game to stay under the total.
Pick: Under 47.5
Warren Sharp's take: Chicago did not play well enough offensively last week to win the game, but the takeaway should not be that this team and offense is terrible. Yet that is the main takeaway I'm hearing everywhere: Trubisky completed just four passes last week and there is no way that this Bears team can throw the ball that infrequently and have any success against this high-powered Saints offense. The Saints very well may blow the Bears out in just their third home game since the season started -- after all, they've won four straight by at least nine points. But don't sleep on the one place the Bears have a decided edge: running the football. The Saints defense ranks 29th vs. the run, and that comes having played four of six games against bottom-10 run offenses, including the 29th-rated Lions and 31st-rated Dolphins in two of their past three games.
Lean: Bears +9
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New Orleans 28, Chicago 18
The pick: New Orleans and the under -- New Orleans -9, 48
Atlanta Falcons (-5) at New York Jets
Total: 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 71 percent Atlanta
Phil Steele's take: Is there a jinx for the loser of the Super Bowl? The Falcons seem to be another team that is struggling after losing the big game. Atlanta is plus-45 yards per game with the No. 7 offense and No. 14 defense in the NFL, but could easily be 1-5 right now. The Jets blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead against Miami last week or this team (which was supposed to be tanking this season) would be 4-3. The Jets are minus-46 yards per game, so they may be doing it with smoke and mirrors, but they should take this down to the wire with a shot at their third outright home upset this year.
ATS pick: Lean N.Y. Jets
Warren Sharp's take: The Falcons offensive struggles entirely relate to their passing offense, and specifically what they do on first down and when/where they choose to target Julio Jones. New OC Steve Sarkisian made major overhauls in those areas, and this offense is a far less explosive pass offense on early downs. That said, they are tremendous rushing the football and play the Jets who have been at their best this year against teams unable to run the football (with the lone exception being their win over the Jaguars, which the Jets won in overtime). Off of a humiliating performance up in New England, it's hard to understand the mentality of the Falcons in this spot. They should be able to run on the Jets, but the Falcons defense has been extremely leaky.
ATS pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Atlanta 25, New York Jets 21
The pick: New York Jets -- N.Y. Jets +5
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-12.5)
Total: 45.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent Philadelphia
Phil Steele's take: After setting an NFL record by losing five consecutive games by three points or fewer, that streak was abruptly ended last week for the 49ers at home in a 40-10 loss to Dallas. Philadelphia just lost one of the best left tackles in the NFL in Jason Peters, but I still feel it is one of the best teams in the league. This would classify as a sandwich game as they just beat rival Washington on Monday night and have Denver on deck. San Francisco is on its fourth road trip in five weeks and are minus-76 yards per game (Eagles at plus-42). While Philadelphia has covered four in a row, I'll go ahead and pass here as double-digit favorites are just 2-5 ATS in the NFL this year.
ATS pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: The big question mark in this matchup is the health of the Eagles. They lost both LT Jason Peters and LB Jordan Hicks for the season in their game against the Redskins. Inevitably that will take a toll -- perhaps not as much against the 49ers as it would against a great team, but it will be a factor. The hidden story from last week's blowout was the performance of the 49ers on the ground. Even in the first half, before it was total garbage time, the 49ers gained 5.2 yards per carry and posted a 54 percent success rate. There is no doubt the Eagles are one of the best teams in the league, but with such a high spread and Carlos Hyde's health improving, there is optimism of a backdoor cover and a potential flat spot for the Eagles after that big win over the Redskins.
Lean: 49ers +13
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Philadelphia 29, San Francisco 16
The pick: Philadelphia -- Philadelphia -12.5
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent Carolina
Phil Steele's take: Tampa Bay is just 3-9 ATS the past four years as a home favorite, and I feel the wrong team is favored here. When all things are equal, I will always go with the best defense, and there is no doubt the Panthers have that edge (especially if Luke Kuechly is back on the field). Tampa Bay is allowing 409 yards per game, which is 92 yards per game more than its opponents usually average (No. 31 in the NFL). Carolina allowed just five first downs last week and is yielding 262 yards per game this year, which is 93 yards per game below what its opponents usually gain (best mark in the NFL). Tampa has an edge on offense and are at home, but neither is enough to compensate for the huge defensive edge.
ATS pick: Carolina +2.5
Erin Rynning's take: During the Panther's epic 15-1 regular season in 2015, seemingly everything went right for the franchise. They outscored their opponents by 192 points with an amazing plus-20 in turnover ratio. Well, it's seemingly trending the other way in 2017 as the Panthers are fine statistically, but own a minus-9 turnover ratio. Fortunately for the Panthers, the Buccaneers are a team that continues to make key mistakes on the football field. They're currently on a three-game losing streak, while losing in a variety of ways. The Panthers own the better run game and defense that gives them the winning edge in this matchup.
ATS pick: Carolina +2.5
Warren Sharp's take: The issue with the Panthers running game is the least discussed problem in the NFL. This team, for years a great rushing offense, simply cannot run the football. After averaging 1 yard per carry against the Lions, they averaged 3.2 yards per carry against the Eagles and 3.6 yards per carry against the Bears. It's not that the Panthers have played a brutal schedule of run defenses, either (they have faced the 26th rated schedule). However, the Tampa Bay defense has been extremely bad, and there is a very good chance the Panthers offense will get back on track. On the other side, Carolina ranks much stronger against the run than the pass, and while the Panthers are middle of the road defending explosive passes, the Bucs surprisingly rank 24th in the league in explosive passing offense.
ATS pick: Carolina +2.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Tampa Bay 23, Carolina 22
The pick: Carolina -- Carolina +2.5
Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5)
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 57 percent Houston
Phil Steele's take: I picked Seattle as one of my NFC favorites, and while the team sits at 4-2, it has looked a bit skittish throughout the year. The Texans lost two key players off their defensive front seven in Whitney Mercilus and J.J. Watt, but remain a top-10 defense. Seattle also lost Cliff Avril who led the team in sacks last year. Deshaun Watson took over as starting quarterback four weeks ago, and Houston has had the No. 4 offense in the NFL since (also No. 1 in scoring offense with 39.3 points per game in that span). Bill O'Brien has been an away 'dog all three times he has come off a bye, pulling outright upsets in each. I'm not sure if he'll do that again, but I do like the Texans to stay within the number.
ATS pick: Houston +5.5
Warren Sharp's take: The Texans defense has a perception that exceeds reality. In their game against the Patriots, a team they know well, New England posted a 48 percent successful pass rate. They effectively abandoned the run, and Brady threw for 378 yards on this defense, with a 71 percent completion rate, 11 YPA, 5 passing TDs and 0 interceptions while posting a 146-passer rating. In their game against the Chiefs, Kansas City had brutal starting field position all day, but in 10 drives they punted just once and drove the ball inside the Texans' 35 on nine of 10 drives (and inside the Texans' 25 in seven of those nine drives). And in both of those games, the Texans had the luxury of starting both Watt and Mercilus, who will miss this game. It will be difficult for the Texans to stop the passing offense of the Seahawks, which is explosive and dynamic, featuring the mobile Russell Wilson.
On the other side, the Seahawks defense has looked tremendous, but has faced some terrible offenses along the way, including the beat-up Giants, the Colts and the 49ers in three of its past five games. The Seahawks allowed the Rams to drive up and down the field on them in a misleading final score, and allowed 33 points to the Titans.
Lean: Seahawks -5.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Seattle 22, Houston 20
The pick: Houston and the under -- Houston +5.5, 46
Dallas Cowboys (-2) at Washington Redskins
Total: 49
PickCenter public consensus pick: 73 percent Dallas
Phil Steele's take: Both teams come in at 3-3 on the season with Dallas at plus-49 yards per game and Washington outgaining its foes by 44 yards per game. The visitor has covered six in a row in this series. Last year Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott were in just their second starts as rookies, but Dallas won here 27-23 as a 3.5-point 'dog. I like Dallas' offensive line, but I have questions about its secondary. The Cowboys have taken on two decent offenses (L.A. Rams and Green Bay Packers with Aaron Rodgers) and gave up 35 points in each. While I would generally lean with the over for these two high-powered offenses, the current weather forecast for Sunday have me passing here.
ATS pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: Three of the past four games in this series have been decided by five or fewer points, with the Cowboys coming from behind in two of them for victories. In fact, removing Week 17 games, five straight and 10 of the past 11 games have been decided by one score or less. Dallas has had the upper hand, but this game is clearly massive for the Redskins, having dropped their game last week to the Eagles. Dallas has yet to face a top-10 run defense (like the Redskins) since Week 2, when they lost 42-17 to the Broncos. Dallas has found its run game and is playing much better, but the question becomes is that purely because they have played bad run defenses? While Dallas returns the services of LB Sean Lee, the Cowboys still rank poorly year to date and should allow the Redskins to prepare an extremely balanced game plan.
Lean: Redskins +2
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Washington 25, Dallas 23
The pick: Washington and the under -- Washingtom +2.5, 50
