How to bet Denver at Kansas City
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
10/30/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Monday night's tilt between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bet.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday afternoon
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
Total: 42
PickCenter public consensus pick: 64 percent on Denver
Phil Steele
While the Broncos head to Arrowhead allowing the fewest yards per game on defense (258.5 yards per game) this season, their offense has been abysmal in losses to the Giants and Chargers the past two weeks (three turnovers in each). The Chiefs meanwhile have dropped each of their past two contests after starting off with a perfect 5-0 record. While Kansas City is No. 2 in the NFL in scoring and No. 3 in yards on the offensive side of the ball, its defense has been suspect, allowing opponents to gain 43 yards over their season average (No. 27). Although the Broncos have done relatively well in this series with ATS covers in seven of the past 10, I'll go ahead and lean with the home squad here, as Kansas City is on a 7-3 ATS run when listed as the favorite.
ATS pick: Lean on Kansas City
Erin Rynning
The Broncos are struggling, with just 10 points combined in their past two games. However, they actually out-gained their opposition in all six games this year in total yardage. No question, teams have ganged up on their run game to slow their offense, but the Chiefs' rush defense is ranked 28th in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have played mediocre football over the past month with that leaky defense. Of course, the Broncos still rank as the best defensive unit in football, which keeps them in this high-stakes affair.
Pick: Lean Broncos
Warren Sharp
It's impossible to look at the full body of work for this Broncos team and assume we'll get that team against the Chiefs. This Chiefs defense is not the unit that started the season 5-0, either. They started to crack against the Redskins in Week 4, and have been extremely suspect ever since. But with Trevor Siemian's struggles this season and the injury to Emmanuel Sanders, the question will be: Can the Broncos do enough to exploit these weaknesses?
We should see a substantial dose of the Broncos' run game, as the Chiefs rank fifth-worst at defending the run. On the other side, the Broncos' pass defense is exactly what the Chiefs should attack early and often. The Broncos run defense is the most efficient and successful in the NFL. However, Denver ranks 17th at defending the pass.
A key matchup will be when Kansas city passes the ball to Kareem Hunt, as they rank fourth in RB pass efficiency.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay
Prediction: Denver and the under
ATS pick: Kansas City 24, Denver 18
John Parolin's prop bet
20.5 completions by Trevor Siemian (O/U -110)
The Broncos' offense has an offensive-line-sized problem. Denver has averaged 3.2 yards per rush over the past two games, 30th in the league. They've allowed pressure on 29 percent of Denver's pass plays this season, 22nd in the league. If they can't run block or pass block, we'll see what we saw over the past two weeks -- two losses by a combined score of 44-10. But this, theoretically, should help a total completions prop.
After all, if the Broncos can't run or protect the quarterback, then the ball needs to come out quickly for high-percentage throws if Denver has any chance of moving the chains. That's exactly what happened in the past two games, against the Giants and Chargers. Siemian threw 85 times in the two games, completing at least 25 passes in each. His average completion in Week 7 against the Chargers went 3.7 yards downfield, the lowest of his career.
All of that sounds great in theory -- as long as Denver can't run the ball. That's where Kansas City comes in. After hearing about how bad the Broncos' line is all week, facing the Kansas City run defense might be what they need. The Chiefs are allowing 4.7 yards per rush, 28th in the league. They have the sixth-worst yards before contact per rush figure in the league.
Even worse? This is a pass defense that has been excellent at defending short throws (59.7 completion percentage on throws 10 yards or shorter, second best in the league). That number barely rises when limiting the stat to throws five yards downfield (60.8 percent). Exploiting the rush defense might not just be the best move on Monday night -- it might give the offensive line something to build on for the rest of the year. It just won't put Siemian in a great spot for 21 completions.
The play: Under
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
10/30/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Monday night's tilt between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bet.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday afternoon
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
Total: 42
PickCenter public consensus pick: 64 percent on Denver
Phil Steele
While the Broncos head to Arrowhead allowing the fewest yards per game on defense (258.5 yards per game) this season, their offense has been abysmal in losses to the Giants and Chargers the past two weeks (three turnovers in each). The Chiefs meanwhile have dropped each of their past two contests after starting off with a perfect 5-0 record. While Kansas City is No. 2 in the NFL in scoring and No. 3 in yards on the offensive side of the ball, its defense has been suspect, allowing opponents to gain 43 yards over their season average (No. 27). Although the Broncos have done relatively well in this series with ATS covers in seven of the past 10, I'll go ahead and lean with the home squad here, as Kansas City is on a 7-3 ATS run when listed as the favorite.
ATS pick: Lean on Kansas City
Erin Rynning
The Broncos are struggling, with just 10 points combined in their past two games. However, they actually out-gained their opposition in all six games this year in total yardage. No question, teams have ganged up on their run game to slow their offense, but the Chiefs' rush defense is ranked 28th in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have played mediocre football over the past month with that leaky defense. Of course, the Broncos still rank as the best defensive unit in football, which keeps them in this high-stakes affair.
Pick: Lean Broncos
Warren Sharp
It's impossible to look at the full body of work for this Broncos team and assume we'll get that team against the Chiefs. This Chiefs defense is not the unit that started the season 5-0, either. They started to crack against the Redskins in Week 4, and have been extremely suspect ever since. But with Trevor Siemian's struggles this season and the injury to Emmanuel Sanders, the question will be: Can the Broncos do enough to exploit these weaknesses?
We should see a substantial dose of the Broncos' run game, as the Chiefs rank fifth-worst at defending the run. On the other side, the Broncos' pass defense is exactly what the Chiefs should attack early and often. The Broncos run defense is the most efficient and successful in the NFL. However, Denver ranks 17th at defending the pass.
A key matchup will be when Kansas city passes the ball to Kareem Hunt, as they rank fourth in RB pass efficiency.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay
Prediction: Denver and the under
ATS pick: Kansas City 24, Denver 18
John Parolin's prop bet
20.5 completions by Trevor Siemian (O/U -110)
The Broncos' offense has an offensive-line-sized problem. Denver has averaged 3.2 yards per rush over the past two games, 30th in the league. They've allowed pressure on 29 percent of Denver's pass plays this season, 22nd in the league. If they can't run block or pass block, we'll see what we saw over the past two weeks -- two losses by a combined score of 44-10. But this, theoretically, should help a total completions prop.
After all, if the Broncos can't run or protect the quarterback, then the ball needs to come out quickly for high-percentage throws if Denver has any chance of moving the chains. That's exactly what happened in the past two games, against the Giants and Chargers. Siemian threw 85 times in the two games, completing at least 25 passes in each. His average completion in Week 7 against the Chargers went 3.7 yards downfield, the lowest of his career.
All of that sounds great in theory -- as long as Denver can't run the ball. That's where Kansas City comes in. After hearing about how bad the Broncos' line is all week, facing the Kansas City run defense might be what they need. The Chiefs are allowing 4.7 yards per rush, 28th in the league. They have the sixth-worst yards before contact per rush figure in the league.
Even worse? This is a pass defense that has been excellent at defending short throws (59.7 completion percentage on throws 10 yards or shorter, second best in the league). That number barely rises when limiting the stat to throws five yards downfield (60.8 percent). Exploiting the rush defense might not just be the best move on Monday night -- it might give the offensive line something to build on for the rest of the year. It just won't put Siemian in a great spot for 21 completions.
The play: Under
