CFB betting look for Week 10: OU-Oklahoma State will be won by defense
Will Harris
ESPN INSIDER
ur college football look-ahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season. In Week 10 we're gobbling up shares of a major power at low tide, reminding you to keep selling a doomed regime that's nearing its end and examining the defensive advantages in one of the biggest Bedlams ever.
Portfolio checkup
Which teams we're buying and selling and why.
Buy
Michigan Wolverines
It's not Michigan's year, but that's not the fault of a defense that has responded to the loss of 10 starters by fielding one of the nation's best units. It's the offense that's been broken, thanks to both an underperforming quarterback group and the failure of a new-look staff to jell quickly.
Michigan has three offensive coaches with a coordinator title, two of whom are new. It is taking time for that side of the ball to find its identity and play-calling rhythm, but it's coming. Quality and cohesion of coaches will not be an issue under Jim Harbaugh, and his rare staffing mistakes will be corrected quickly. The quarterback dilemma might also be resolving itself, as Brandon Peters led scoring drives on his first three possessions after replacing an ineffective John O'Korn in a 35-14 win over Rutgers.
Next up are dates with Minnesota and Maryland, so the schedule allows for some room to break the new signal-caller in gradually before the season closes with Wisconsin and Ohio State. The staff will get the passing game on track with Peters, and in the meantime the defense is suffocating and the ground game punishing.
This team is not done improving, and we'd suggest that the lowest Michigan's stock will be for the next decade is right now, at fourth place in the Big Ten East, unranked in the AP poll and having won and covered just two of its past 10 games. We're investing in the Wolverines making that five of the past 13 by the time the bus pulls out of Madison.
Sell
UCLA Bruins
This is all part of the same narrative we've recounted since Jim Mora arrived in Westwood, but UCLA remains doomed by a weak administration that missed by hiring an NFL coach who's inexperienced and out of his depth in major college ball.
Mora went all-in on a recruiting-oriented staff, and the result has been a parade of assistants unable to make adjustments or put their players in a position to play winning football. Under Mora, UCLA has often lived up to its unfortunate reputation as rarely being the more physical team on the field, while showing none of the discipline and execution successful finesse teams require.
Like Butch Jones at Tennessee, Mora's talent haul ensures that he'll leave the roster better than he found it, but he's just 16-30 against the spread the past four years. Only the likes of Jimbo Fisher, Charlie Strong (albeit with a new program) and Kevin Sumlin are still around doing less with more, and Mora's days seem numbered.
Slate standout
A game we'll be studying closely this week and what we're looking for.
Oklahoma Sooners at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-3)
Oklahoma has a player-led team with a solid core of upperclassmen running the show, and that's certainly eased the transition for new coach Lincoln Riley, whose real challenge starts in January when he has to forge a team from scratch in the offseason for the first time. He'll have to do that without the help of Baker Mayfield, Steven Parker, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo and other key departing leaders who are a big reason the Sooners are so good this year.
Even with veteran leadership and solid team chemistry, though, the Sooners have disappointed us at times with their inconsistency and immaturity. Oklahoma has been pressed hard in four of its wins, and Mayfield has bailed the team out each time. Now comes by far the stiffest test, as a fully ripened Oklahoma State in Mike Gundy's 13th season is miles better than Texas, Baylor a few games into a major rebuild, an upstart Iowa State with a first-timer under center, or the work-in-progress team Ohio State trotted out in Week 2.
The Cowboys are a machine offensively, as mature and well-developed an attack as you'll ever find, and one that's perfectly built to punish overaggressive defensive play-calling like Mike Stoops will dutifully furnish this week.
It's the defense, though, that gives this OSU bunch a championship look. Two weeks ago that unit turned in the best performance of the Gundy era, then followed it up with a stellar effort at West Virginia that was a lot better than it looked on the scoreboard. Don't see the 50-39 final and think "typical Big 12 football." The Cowboys held West Virginia to 347 yards, just 62 on the ground, while causing three fumbles and picking off four passes.
This unit is hitting stride at just the right time, and Oklahoma will have to execute at a level higher than merely unleashing some Mayfield heroics. The Pokes have the defensive front to hold up against one of the nation's best offensive lines, but it's the growing confidence in the back end that might mean defensive dominance over a youthful Oklahoma receiving corps.
Handicapper's toolbox
A different concept every Monday, and how to apply it on Saturday.
Option offense is a unique animal, and lack of familiarity spells doom for opposing defenses.
Last week we highlighted the year-over-year progress Brent Venables and the Clemson defense have made against Georgia Tech. When Paul Johnson first came to Tech from Navy, we immediately started combing the future schedules with a plan to use the Jackets to attack teams and staffs facing an option attack for the first time.
We did the same when Navy joined the AAC, which slotted a lot of new faces onto the Mids' schedule. Navy's results were just as good, finishing with 12 ATS victories in the first two years of conference play, just as Johnson did in the ACC. By now both teams, especially Tech, have made their way through the division crossover schedule enough that truly new opponents are hard to find.
Keep shopping, though. Non-conference schedules and new staffs are now the places to look for these opportunities, and we've got one of those on tap this week when Navy goes to Temple in a rematch of last year's AAC championship game. Temple won that game, 34-10, but the Owls had a staff with significant experience facing an option offense. That's not the case with Geoff Collins and his staff this year. Plus, just one Owl who started in last year's front seven will suit up for the rematch. We like the early direction of Collins' defense and program at large, but not enough to bank on his Owls avoiding the same fate as so many other first-timers fed to the Navy and Georgia Tech threshing machines.
Tulane and New Mexico are pistol-option teams that should also be on your radar.
The possibilities aren't limited to option football. The only thing worse than facing Chip Kelly's Oregon offenses was facing them for the first time, and Stanford's unique eight-OL sets have certainly caused headaches for the uninitiated. Always be alert for the opportunities that unusual or rarely-seen schemes provide, and especially be aware of the opposing staff's relevant background (or lack thereof) .
Will Harris
ESPN INSIDER
ur college football look-ahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season. In Week 10 we're gobbling up shares of a major power at low tide, reminding you to keep selling a doomed regime that's nearing its end and examining the defensive advantages in one of the biggest Bedlams ever.
Portfolio checkup
Which teams we're buying and selling and why.
Buy
Michigan Wolverines
It's not Michigan's year, but that's not the fault of a defense that has responded to the loss of 10 starters by fielding one of the nation's best units. It's the offense that's been broken, thanks to both an underperforming quarterback group and the failure of a new-look staff to jell quickly.
Michigan has three offensive coaches with a coordinator title, two of whom are new. It is taking time for that side of the ball to find its identity and play-calling rhythm, but it's coming. Quality and cohesion of coaches will not be an issue under Jim Harbaugh, and his rare staffing mistakes will be corrected quickly. The quarterback dilemma might also be resolving itself, as Brandon Peters led scoring drives on his first three possessions after replacing an ineffective John O'Korn in a 35-14 win over Rutgers.
Next up are dates with Minnesota and Maryland, so the schedule allows for some room to break the new signal-caller in gradually before the season closes with Wisconsin and Ohio State. The staff will get the passing game on track with Peters, and in the meantime the defense is suffocating and the ground game punishing.
This team is not done improving, and we'd suggest that the lowest Michigan's stock will be for the next decade is right now, at fourth place in the Big Ten East, unranked in the AP poll and having won and covered just two of its past 10 games. We're investing in the Wolverines making that five of the past 13 by the time the bus pulls out of Madison.
Sell
UCLA Bruins
This is all part of the same narrative we've recounted since Jim Mora arrived in Westwood, but UCLA remains doomed by a weak administration that missed by hiring an NFL coach who's inexperienced and out of his depth in major college ball.
Mora went all-in on a recruiting-oriented staff, and the result has been a parade of assistants unable to make adjustments or put their players in a position to play winning football. Under Mora, UCLA has often lived up to its unfortunate reputation as rarely being the more physical team on the field, while showing none of the discipline and execution successful finesse teams require.
Like Butch Jones at Tennessee, Mora's talent haul ensures that he'll leave the roster better than he found it, but he's just 16-30 against the spread the past four years. Only the likes of Jimbo Fisher, Charlie Strong (albeit with a new program) and Kevin Sumlin are still around doing less with more, and Mora's days seem numbered.
Slate standout
A game we'll be studying closely this week and what we're looking for.
Oklahoma Sooners at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-3)
Oklahoma has a player-led team with a solid core of upperclassmen running the show, and that's certainly eased the transition for new coach Lincoln Riley, whose real challenge starts in January when he has to forge a team from scratch in the offseason for the first time. He'll have to do that without the help of Baker Mayfield, Steven Parker, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo and other key departing leaders who are a big reason the Sooners are so good this year.
Even with veteran leadership and solid team chemistry, though, the Sooners have disappointed us at times with their inconsistency and immaturity. Oklahoma has been pressed hard in four of its wins, and Mayfield has bailed the team out each time. Now comes by far the stiffest test, as a fully ripened Oklahoma State in Mike Gundy's 13th season is miles better than Texas, Baylor a few games into a major rebuild, an upstart Iowa State with a first-timer under center, or the work-in-progress team Ohio State trotted out in Week 2.
The Cowboys are a machine offensively, as mature and well-developed an attack as you'll ever find, and one that's perfectly built to punish overaggressive defensive play-calling like Mike Stoops will dutifully furnish this week.
It's the defense, though, that gives this OSU bunch a championship look. Two weeks ago that unit turned in the best performance of the Gundy era, then followed it up with a stellar effort at West Virginia that was a lot better than it looked on the scoreboard. Don't see the 50-39 final and think "typical Big 12 football." The Cowboys held West Virginia to 347 yards, just 62 on the ground, while causing three fumbles and picking off four passes.
This unit is hitting stride at just the right time, and Oklahoma will have to execute at a level higher than merely unleashing some Mayfield heroics. The Pokes have the defensive front to hold up against one of the nation's best offensive lines, but it's the growing confidence in the back end that might mean defensive dominance over a youthful Oklahoma receiving corps.
Handicapper's toolbox
A different concept every Monday, and how to apply it on Saturday.
Option offense is a unique animal, and lack of familiarity spells doom for opposing defenses.
Last week we highlighted the year-over-year progress Brent Venables and the Clemson defense have made against Georgia Tech. When Paul Johnson first came to Tech from Navy, we immediately started combing the future schedules with a plan to use the Jackets to attack teams and staffs facing an option attack for the first time.
We did the same when Navy joined the AAC, which slotted a lot of new faces onto the Mids' schedule. Navy's results were just as good, finishing with 12 ATS victories in the first two years of conference play, just as Johnson did in the ACC. By now both teams, especially Tech, have made their way through the division crossover schedule enough that truly new opponents are hard to find.
Keep shopping, though. Non-conference schedules and new staffs are now the places to look for these opportunities, and we've got one of those on tap this week when Navy goes to Temple in a rematch of last year's AAC championship game. Temple won that game, 34-10, but the Owls had a staff with significant experience facing an option offense. That's not the case with Geoff Collins and his staff this year. Plus, just one Owl who started in last year's front seven will suit up for the rematch. We like the early direction of Collins' defense and program at large, but not enough to bank on his Owls avoiding the same fate as so many other first-timers fed to the Navy and Georgia Tech threshing machines.
Tulane and New Mexico are pistol-option teams that should also be on your radar.
The possibilities aren't limited to option football. The only thing worse than facing Chip Kelly's Oregon offenses was facing them for the first time, and Stanford's unique eight-OL sets have certainly caused headaches for the uninitiated. Always be alert for the opportunities that unusual or rarely-seen schemes provide, and especially be aware of the opposing staff's relevant background (or lack thereof) .
