The Dozen: Bedlam Plus
Here are the games that should most command your attention on the first Saturday in November and everything you need to know to handicap these matchups:
1. Oklahoma at Oklahoma State: After this year's Bedlam series result is in, there will be one very satisfied 8-1 team still alive as a national championship contender and one very disappointed program that will have wasted a run behind one of the top QBs in school history. Mix in a revenge factor for the Cowboys, who have lost 14 of 15 when both teams come in ranked and have lost their chance to win a Big 12 title in consecutive seasons, and it's easy to see why taking care of business at home in Stillwater this time around means everything to little brother OSU.
QB Mason Rudolph has produced games of 40 or more points in all but two of his team's eight outings, topping 50 or more in four of them counting last week's win at West Virginia, so concerns over his shoulder bothering him has dissipated some despite a lack of throws down the field. Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield actually has the tougher matchup given what both secondaries have shown thus far, but he's gotten a lot of help from RBs Abdul Adams, Trey Sermon and Rodney Anderson that could take some pressure off both sides of the ball by chewing up clock and maintaining possession. That could also give under 76 a fighting chance if the Cowboys can't break off the explosive plays they're counting on here.
2. Clemson at N.C. State: The Tigers followed up their tough loss at Syracuse by handling Georgia Tech again, putting together another stifling defensive effort against the triple option. We'll see how they handle the Wolfpack's more conventional offense as they hit the road for the first time since disaster hit in upstate New York. Kelly Bryant returned from his ankle injury looking spry, but not 100 percent. Presumably, he'll be better this week, which means the Tigers can rely on a playmaker who was routinely making big plays with his arm in addition to his feet, addressing legitimate concerns that he'd be too much of a running back in replacing Watson.
The Wolfpack missed a 33-yard field goal that would've sent the customers home depressed last season, ultimately losing in overtime. They then saw their season fall apart, recovering barely enough to salvage a bowl game and a winning record. Coming off their first loss of the season at Notre Dame, NC State can keep its ACC title aspirations alive by winning here and taking control of the Atlantic Division. Notre Dame took advantage of the Wolfpack by dominating up front and racing up the rushing yards, so the expectation is that Clemson will attempt to follow suit. The Tigers have won 12 of 13 games in this series after last year's close call.
3. Arizona at USC: We'll very likely see the winner here in the Pac-12 Championship representing the South Division, putting Sam Darnold back in the spotlight after a strong performance at Arizona State last week to put the Trojans in the driver's seat since they get to play this key game at home.
This puts USC's banged-up defense up against the four-time reigning Pac-12 Player of the Week, Khalil Tate, who averages over 13 yards per carry, has really picked up his passing and has led the 'Cats to nearly 49 points per game over the last four. He'll be facing the most athletic defens he's seen to date, making this a great test for a potential Heisman candidate that's come out of nowhere. USC has won four straight in the series and Rich Rodriguez hasn't won at the Coliseum with Arizona, but if Tate outplays Darnold, this Cinderella story would continue with an ironic twist.
4. Virginia Tech at Miami (FL): The Hokies came up short against Clemson at home in late September, but a little more than a month later, are basically a pick'em on the road down at Hard Rock Stadium. That tells you how seriously oddsmakers are taking the Hurricanes' chances of running the table this season, even though they keep pulling off wins in games where they've flirted with disaster.
QB Malik Rosier is going to play despite suffering an injury to his throwing shoulder and will be closely monitored here since he often struggles with accuracy as it is. Evan Shireffs, a 6-foot-5 redshirt sophomore who lacks much experience, would get the call if Rosier is too injured to play, which makes for a potentially dubious situation given Virginia Tech's defense. The Hokies can still have a special season since running the table will give them the Coastal Division over the 'Canes. QB Josh Jackson has broken Michael Vick's freshman record for passing yards but will be making just his third road start.
5. Ohio State at Iowa: Urban Meyer's team has to get up for another challenge after last week's emotional comeback win over Penn State, so this is potentionally a trouble spot. Iowa took out top-five Michigan last year and came a last-second score from adding Penn State to Kinnick Stadium's victims earlier in the season since three straight AP Top-5 teams had left Iowa City with losses since '08. Remarkably, Meyer has never coached there since the Buckeyes haven't been in town since 2010. Jim Tressel's 12-1 team survived there 20-17 as a 3-point favorite.
If they can withstand the emotional element, the Buckeyes have the same clear advantages against a young Hawkeyes offensive line that they enjoyed last week in wearing down the Nittany Lions. Ohio State's front seven is loaded with pros and QB J.T. Barrett has clearly saved his best for last. Running backs J.K. Dobbins, Mike Weber and H-back K.J. Hill are all formidable and look to be in great form, but WR Parris Campbell has been ruled out.
6. LSU at Alabama: The Crimson Tide are ranked No. 2 for the first time this season and Nick Saban knows his former employer always packs a little extra venom for him, so there's no letdown coming in Tuscaloosa. 'Bama respects LSU's talent and past success, so even though there appears to be a slight disparity here, Saban has pulled his typical routine of ranting at the media to publicly rail against meaningless rankings and caution against overconfidence.
It's all on his elite defense continuing a trend of shutting down the Tigers, who have enjoyed elite talent like Odell Beckham, Jr. and Leonard Fournette among many others and still managed just 10.5 points during a six-game losing streak at the hands of the Tide. After starting slowly by failing to cover at home against Fresno State and Colorado State, Alabama has won its three conference home dates by a combined margin of 152-19. It owns a 17-game home winning streak. LSU's Derrius Guice hopes to carry over the form he displayed running for 276 yards at Ole Miss and the Tigers do come off a bye after sandwich a season-saving conquest of Auburn with road wins over Florida and Ole Miss. We'll see whether they can compete this time around enough to even hang within the 21.5-point spread.
7. Penn State at Michigan State: We referenced a potential emotional letdown for Ohio State, and it was the team that euphorically claimed last week's big game. The Nittany Lions have to deal with a hangover effect and get to do it on the road. James Franklin's team wasted a golden opportunity to remain undefeated and may have cost Saquon Barkley his shot at the Heisman due to an inability to block up front.
It won't be any picnic, since 40-degree weather and showers are expected to play a role in what will likely be a physical football game won on the ground and potentially, by the elusiveness and ingenuity of both quarterbacks. MSU's Brian Lewerke is capable of making plays with his legs and has really generated results to elevate a once-anemic attack. Since Sparty visit the Buckeyes in Columbus next week, they control their destiny in the East Division. PSU's Trace McSorley had a great game against Michigan State's defense last season and will need to lift his team up on the road by creating momentum with some chunk plays that can help a sputtering group lock back in.
8. Stanford at Washington State: This one doesn't decide the Pac-12 North, but will certainly play a huge role. The Cardinal have seen RB Bryce Love emerge as a legitimate Heisman candidate due to his breathtaking Barry Sanders-like runs and it's telling that he still leads the country in rushing yards (1,387) despite missing essentially the last game-and-a-half after a nasty ankle injury. He's expected to play, which eases the pressure on redshirt freshman K.J. Costello, who will start on the road for the first time and has looked good in playing a few games this season.
He'll be dueling a polar opposite of sorts in Cougs' QB Luke Falk, the nation's active career leader in passing yards (13,469), touchdowns (112) and yards per game (336.7). He'll break Sean Mannion's Pac-12 record for passing yards at some point in this game barring injury and will be honored and cheered heavily since this will be his final home game. Washington State is 6-0 in Pullman this season, improving to 15-4 over the last three seasons. Despite this and because of the uncertainty of Love's ankle, WSU opened as a 2.5-point favorite but is now a pick'em.
9. Iowa State at West Virginia: Although it's overshadowed by Bedlam in Big 12 circles, this matchup ends up making the list over Texas-TCU as the league's second-best offering due to the curiosity the Cyclones have become. Derailing a Horned Frogs team they seemed to intimidate in the red zone has kept a team that looked like they had a realistic shot to crash the national semifinals.
Bowl eligible for the first time since 2012, Matt Campbell's team will look to continue the ride in Morgantown, where West Virginia is hoping to avoid consecutive home losses after dropping a 50-39 shootout to Oklahoma State. Will Grier continues to be a prolific passer, but turned over too much in last week's upset bid, making today's game entirely about his ability to solve an Iowa State defense that looked so great last week in shutting down Kenny Hill. There have been at least 74 points scored in six of eight games involving the Mountaineers, while the under has prevailed in five of Iowa State's last six. Dana Holgorsen beat Campbell in Ames last season 49-19 in last year's regular-season finale, so it will be fun to see how he'll fare now against a far better team.
10. Auburn at Texas A&M: After playing 'Bama tougher than anyone has this season, the Ags barely survived at Florida and got blown out at home by three touchdowns against Mississippi State. This provides head coach Kevin Sumlin's final opportunity to impress the 12th Man and win over those in the fan base still on the fence about him. Auburn recovered from blowing a 20-0 halftime lead at LSU by hanging a 52-20 rout at brutal Arkansas and has been on hiatus since. With a showdown against Georgia set for next week, the Tigers need to look good here in what should be a worth tune-up.
The road team has won all five meetings since the Aggies joined the conference, so that trend would certainly bode well for the Tigers, who will also have a determined QB returning to his home state in Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham, who originally had some interest in the school in College Station. Perhaps because of the presence of highly touted recruit Kellen Mond, interest in him waned, so the narrative is clear that Stidham can earn himself a little payback against the beleaguered Sumlin, who is sticking with Mond despite his poor play over the past few weeks. The speedy athlete hasn't been able to consistently make throws, which could hurt A&M's chances against a stout Tigers defense.
11. South Carolina at Georgia: In a season where most of the SEC has been down, the Gamecocks have actually surprised and have been terrific against the spread, coming in 5-2-1 as they look to shock the 'Dawgs and make their run as the nation's top-ranked team short-lived. A 24-point underdog, South Carolina winning outright would net you +1400 on the money line at 5 Dimes, but has little chance of happening since it lost top playmaker Deebo Samuel early this season, limiting the likelihood of thriving against the best defense and rushing attack it has seen all season. Still, Will Muschamp has his team bowl eligible a second consecutive year and up for playing spoiler for these Bulldogs and rival Clemson in the regular season finale.
Georgia head coach Kirby Smart has to be concerned his team will look past a pretty good team given road games ahead at Auburn and Georgia Tech later this month. The Auburn test is next, so the temptation to pull starters early also makes the spread employed here a little high, but the 42-7 rout at Florida continued a UGA run that has seen it defeat its five SEC conquests by a 212-45 margin, covering spreads against all but Mizzou.
12. Wisconsin at Indiana: The Badgers are catching no respect despite their perfect record since they haven't beaten anyone of significance, so this has become a popular upset pick. The lone unbeaten team currently left in the Big Ten may also be without their most dynamic offensive threat, dynamic true freshman RB Jonathan Taylor, who is questionable with a leg injury and isn't expected to be 100 percent if he goes. They're playing a second straight road game for the first time and will face an engaged crowd that will pack the house despite likely showers since college basketball isn't quite back in Bloomington.
The Hoosiers have yet to win a game in the Big Ten, but they've been competitive against Ohio State for a half and both Michigan schools for four quarters. A tough loss at Maryland last week puts Indiana in a position where it is forced to win out to reach a bowl, so it should be engaged to save its season. There are offensive line issues to be concerned with, including that of LT Coy Cronk. Starting QB Peyton Ramsey left with a knee issue last week, which likely means senior Richard Lagow could start. Many believe he should've been the starter all along.
Others: Texas at TCU, Wake Forest at Notre Dame, Oregon at Washington, Minnesota at Michigan, Syracuse at Florida State, Colorado State at Wyoming, UCF at SMU, Kansas State at Texas Tech, Georgia Tech at Virginia, Northwestern at Nebraska, Army at Air Force, Colorado at Arizona State
