Monday 11/06/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Requests Etc.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes

Finger Lakes - Race 6

EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA * PICK 4 (50 Cent Minimum: Races 6-7-8-9) * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 6-7)


Allowance • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $19,500 • Post: 2:30P
FOR FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO STATE BRED RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 6 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).
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Race Type: Dominant Class. MECKE'S MADALYN is the Dominant Class of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MECKE'S MADALYN: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LADY MARLE NA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TINASUTOPIANVISION: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/s urface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). WISDOM OF OZ: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equiba se Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2
MECKE'S MADALYN
8/5

7/2
1A
LADY MARLENA
2/1

6/1
1
TINASUTOPIANVISION
2/1

9/1
3
WISDOM OF OZ
5/1

10/1
 

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The Walker Group at Laurel

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Turf. Purse: $27000 Class Rating: 69

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, FOR EACH $2,500 TO $20,000 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 14 BANNER WAVE 8/5

# 2 TILAKA 8/1

# 6 CONJECTURE 3/1

BANNER WAVE is my choice. Last time out, this filly was up against a rougher field. Have to examine solely on class, with some of the strongest class figs of this group of horses in this race. Handal has this filly running well and is a very good choice based on the very good Equibase speed figs posted in sprint races as of late. TILAKA - She should definitely be carefully examined given the competitive speed figures. CONJECTURE - The speed rating of 69 from her most recent race looks competitive in here. Her 62 average has this filly with among the most favorable Speed Figures in this competition.
 

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The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #7 - Post: 3:33pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,800 Class Rating: 88

Rating: 3

#2 WHOLE LOTTA RUN (ML=10/1)
#1 WANDERING KITTEN (ML=7/2)
#9 WORD RACER (ML=4/1)


WHOLE LOTTA RUN - Be loyal to this steed. Coming off the pace, I think he'll be in a fabulous spot to crush them in the stretch. WANDERING KITTEN - I like to play this angle, a campaigner coming back off a good race within the last thirty days. This gelding looks good today. Hasn't done much lately, but did win a $4,000 Claiming race on September 6th. The outside post position didn't help this horse's chances in the last race at Thistledown. Today's inside draw should be just fine. WORD RACER - This rider/conditioner duo has been producing a very positive ROI, right at +140. This gelding is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Morales. I like this gelding. Has the highest earnings per start in here.come get them pesos

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 TUBA (ML=3/1), #6 CARAMELO (ML=6/1), #10 TWICE WITH ICE (ML=8/1),

TUBA - This mount has been letting down the bettors as the favorite time and time again. This probable favorite ran on October 11th and hasn't had a morning drill since. Not a value play to back the favorite when he continues to lose time and time again when favored. CARAMELO - Hard to put your money on the win end of any horse that finishes second and third as often as this one does. TWICE WITH ICE - Registered a mediocre rating last out in a $5,000 Claiming race on October 24th. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that number.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - WHOLE LOTTA RUN - Coming off his last race with the top speed figure of 95 at Belterra Park. He is the gelding to beat today.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #2 WHOLE LOTTA RUN to win if you can get odds of 2/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
2 with [1,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2,9] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[1,2,9] with [1,2,9] with [1,2,6,8,9] with [1,2,6,8,9] Total Cost: $36
 

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The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $22000 Class Rating: 70

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 6 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 2 VEBLEN GOOD 7/5

# 6 CHOTEAU 6/1

# 1 UNLIMITED RESOURCE 12/1

VEBLEN GOOD has a quite good shot to take this race. With a nice class figure average of 82, has one of the best class advantages in this field. Has garnered formidable speed figures in dirt route races in the past. Overall the speed figures of this animal look respectable in this affair. CHOTEAU - Had one of the best Equibase Speed Figs of this group in her last outing. Hard to pass on this filly with Silvera in the saddle. UNLIMITED RESOURCE - Serey has her trained quite well to break swiftly out of the gate. Might best this group here, showing respectable figures of late.
 

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise

Turf Paradise - Race 5

$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 5-6) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)


Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 2:52P
(PLUS UP TO 10% PLUS 10%) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 6 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).
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Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. BOO BOO BEAR is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BOO BOO BEAR: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. I' M FOCUSED: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SLOT PLAYER: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Today is a sprint and the h orse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
4
BOO BOO BEAR
8/5

5/2
3
I'M FOCUSED
2/1

7/1
5
SLOT PLAYER
5/2

7/1
 

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Valuline at Zia Park

Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
Zia Park, Race 10 (Monday November 6, 2017)

BACK SEAT KISS
(For ten of today's most likely winners, see Exotic Key Plays.)

ZIA-10 6.5f DIRT Nine Horses
"A" CLM 10,000 F/M 3YUP $15,000
P# dd ex p3 p4 t s ML WP TVL

1 BACK SEAT KISS 7/5 42% 7/5 Strong Favorite icon
2 LE GRANDE WHO 5/2 14% 6/1
 

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The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Zia Park - Race #7 - Post: 2:54pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $24,000 Class Rating: 86

Rating: 4

#2 THE INCIDENT (ML=7/2)
#7 MYSTERIOUSMAGICIAN (ML=6/1)


THE INCIDENT - This horse should go right out to the early lead and may never look back. Could wire the field. Taking a drop in class rating points from her September 30th race at Oak Tree at Pleasanton. Based on that information, I will give this horse the edge. Earnings per race is something that I think can be a very valuable selection factor. This horse is ranked at the top in this field. MYSTERIOUSMAGICIAN - Dominguez has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to watch out for the longer priced half. You have to really like that most recent race speed rating, 82, which is the best last race speed figure of this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 CHASENTHISDREAM (ML=5/2), #6 GOOD GRAMMAR (ML=3/1), #1 FASHION REWARD (ML=9/2),

CHASENTHISDREAM - I don't normally play a morning-line favorite that hasn't been to the track in the last 3 weeks. If you keep playing these kind of 'hanger' types, you're going to be disappointed most of the time. Quite unimpressive fig in the last race at Zia Park at 6 furlongs. Don't think this pony will improve too much in today's race. GOOD GRAMMAR - Don't think this vulnerable equine will make an impact in today's race. That last speed rating was substandard when compared with today's class rating. FASHION REWARD - Difficult to bet on at 9/2 odds after the two most recent outings.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #2 THE INCIDENT on top if we're getting at least 8/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
 

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NBA Knowledge

Hawks won/covered four of last five games with Boston; under is 6-2-1 in last nine series games. Celtics are 2-4 vs spread in last six games in this building. Boston won/covered its last eight games; they’re 5-1 SU on road, 2-0 as a road favorite. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games. Hawks won in Cleveland Sunday, anding an 8-game losing skid. Hawks are 0-3 at home, 1-2 as a home underdog. Last three Atlanta games went over the total.

Nets won/covered four of last five games with Phoenix; over is 3-1 in last four series games. Brooklyn covered three of last four games in this building. Nets lost their last four games; they’re 1-3 vs spread as a road underdog. Last three Brooklyn games went over. Phoenix won four of its last seven games after an 0-3 start; they won their last two home games. Four of Suns’ last five games went over the total.

Warriors won five of last six games with Miami, but Heat covered the last four. Miami is 3-0-2 vs spread in its last five visits to Oakland. Over is 5-3 in last eight series games. Heat lost four of its last six games; they’re 2-0 as a road underdog. Four of their last five games stayed under. Golden State won six of its last seven games; they’re 0-4 as a home favorite. Four of their last five games went over the total.



BOSTON (8 - 2) at ATLANTA (2 - 8 ) - 11/6/2017, 7:35 PM


Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in the first half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=98 points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 8-5 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 9-4 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

BROOKLYN (3 - 6) at PHOENIX (4 - 6) - 11/6/2017, 9:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.
BROOKLYN is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 40-25 ATS (+12.5 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 31-48 ATS (-21.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 4-1 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
BROOKLYN is 4-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

MIAMI (4 - 5) at GOLDEN STATE (7 - 3) - 11/6/2017, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 120-156 ATS (-51.6 Units) in November games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 37-24 ATS (+10.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 51-38 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 33-21 ATS (+9.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 4-0 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


BOSTON @ ATLANTA
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Boston
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston

BROOKLYN @ PHOENIX
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Brooklyn's last 5 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Brooklyn is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games

MIAMI @ GOLDEN STATE
Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Miami is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
Golden State is 21-3 SU in its last 24 games at home
Golden State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 game


StatFox Super Situations

BOSTON at ATLANTA
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight games 95-49 since 1997. ( 66.0% | 41.1 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

BROOKLYN at PHOENIX
Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHOENIX) extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days, first half of the season 133-75 since 1997 ( 63.9% | 50.5 units )

BROOKLYN at PHOENIX
Play On - Road teams vs. the money line (BROOKLYN) revenging a home loss vs opponent against opponent off 2 consecutive road losses by 10 points or more 21-9 over the last 5 seasons. ( 70.0% | 19.9 units )

 

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Nets, Suns meet in Phoenix

The Nets look to rebound against the Suns on Monday after surrendering a big lead to Phoenix just day earlier.

In a matchup of two young, rebuilding teams on Tuesday night, the Brooklyn Nets appeared to have gotten the better of the Phoenix Suns at home when they took an 18-point lead in the third quarter. The Suns erased the lead before the quarter was even over, though, and thoroughly outplayed the Nets in the fourth quarter to come away with a 122-114 win on the road. It was a tough loss for Brooklyn, their third straight after a triumphant win over LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers just days earlier. And it was an especially triumphant win for the Suns, their third in four games after starting the season 0-3 and seeing head coach Earl Watson fired. Brooklyn doesn't have to wait long for a shot at revenge, though, as they head to Phoenix for a rematch on Monday night. PG Eric Bledsoe remains off the court and on the trade block for the Suns, and the team knows that any day could bring his official departure and an influx of new talent (or draft picks).

The Nets will have to hope that their new point guard D'Angelo Russell isn't too mentally drained on Sunday, as he's likely spent all summer focusing on the preceding game: A Friday night showdown with the team that traded him, the Los Angeles Lakers. With two days off in between, though, it's not a huge concern. Largely, he's been the player people expected to see in his third season: A scoring point guard that is also a creative enough passer to make plays in the halfcourt. He scored 33 points on 21 shots in the first go-round against Phoenix, but had a game-worst +/- of -22 on the evening. Even without PG Jeremy Lin, who was lost early in the year to a season-ending injury, the overall talent is significantly higher in Brooklyn than it has been the past couple year. That includes SF Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, who, like, Russell, is in his third year in the league and has taken a significant step forward in scoring. He had 21 against the Suns on Tuesday. PG Spencer Dinwiddie had 15 points off the bench. Second-year SG Caris LeVert and trade acquisition SG Allen Crabbe provide further talent at the wing, although Crabbe had a dismal 2-of-10 shooting performance in the loss to Phoenix. C Timofey Mozgov and SF DeMarre Carroll, also new to town this season, round out the starting lineup alongside Russell, Hollis-Jefferson and LeVert.

Fans of the NBA are keeping a close eye on the development of third-year Suns SG Devin Booker, who is still remarkably young—he turned 21 on October 30th. On an incredibly young team last year, he assumed a hefty usage load for the Suns, and while it's good that he's gotten so much experience, one wonders if he might be developing bad habits that can often be seen in volume scorers on bad teams. Early on this year, though, it looks like he has taken another step forward. Through eight games this season, he was averaging 22.1 PPG, his exact same scoring total from 2016-17. The difference? His PER through eight games sits at 20.0, while his 2016-17 PER was an unimpressive 14.6. Time will tell if this performance holds up, but interim head coach Jay Triano appears to have him doing all the right things. He had 32 points on 11-of-22 shooting against Brooklyn on Tuesday, adding seven rebounds and four assists. PG Mike James, who has somehow found himself in an NBA starting lineup after a career as a journeyman, scored 24, and SF T.J. Warren scored 20. The next night, in a 122-116 road win over an excellent Washington team, Warren dropped a staggering 40 points and 10 rebounds. He had 27 a week earlier against Utah. He's also had three single-digit scoring games so far this season, though, so the fourth-year player needs to figure out how to bring it on a nightly basis. Despite only scoring two points against Brooklyn, C Tyson Chandler had a game-best +/- of +26 thanks to his 13 rebounds and stiff interior defense

 

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Monday's NBA Essentials

Last time the Heat saw the Warriors on the floor, Dion Waiters drained a game-winning 3-pointer over Klay Thompson, walking off as conquering hero in an unlikely win that was one of the defining moments of Miami's resurgence last season.

An encore isn't expected. At least not Monday night.

Waiters, who returned back to South Florida when his new daughter was born Sunday, is unlikely to rejoin the team in time to play this one but will probably be back before the week is up. The Warriors have long memories, so we'll see whether they choose to send a message to his teammates instead.

Oddsmakers certainly believe that to be a possibility, installing Golden State as a 16.5-point favorite on Monday, the largest spread of the young season that the defending champs have been saddled with. Previously, that number had been 14.5 on Oct. 29 against Detroit, and the Heat can take some hope from the fact the Pistons won that game outright, shocking the Dubs at Oracle 115-107 after erasing a 16-point deficit.

Golden State hasn't lost since, winning all three of last week's games by a combined 67 points. No slouches were in the mix, either, as the Clippers Spurs and Nuggets were the victims. After an inconsistent 4-3 start, the Warriors look like themselves again. They'll attempt to notch their first home cover after coming up short in each of their first four, losing two games outirght.

The Heat won their first road game in three tries this season on Sunday afternoon, surviving the squandering a 23-point lead to open the fourth quarter against the Clips before making enough plays in the closing stages to post a 104-101 win at Staples Center.

Ideally, Miami would've been able to rest its starters in preparation for the massive challenge that awaits in Oakland on Monday night, but L.A. sixth man Lou Williams had other ideas, sparking a comeback thanks to a 29-4 run that incredibly helped his team grab a 95-93 lead with 2:55 left. The lead was swapped multiple times in the final minute before the Heat ultimately won when a pair of James Johnson free throws held up after Blake Griffin missed a long fadeaway jumper with three seconds remaining.

It's strange to call any win this early in the season important, but considering it had already lost a late lead in a 95-94 loss to Denver to open a season-long six-game road trip that is arguably the toughest of its season, Miami needed to leave L.A. with what it had earned itself after an excellent first 36 minutes on Sunday. It makes you wonder whether that satisfaction will have the Heat feeling a little complacent as they face their first back-to-back situation of the season, but making their lone trip into Oracle Arena to face the defending champs could offset those concerns.

Most teams always find a little extra when testing themselves against the best, both from a competitive standpoint and a desire to not get embarrassed. After playing tough games in Denver and L.A., we'll see how much Miami has left in the tank for this one.

Josh Richardson, who had been starting at small forward, swtiched to shooting guard to fill in for Waiters, allowing Justise Winslow to man his more natural position upon entering the starting lineup. Expect that to continue against the Warriors, which if nothing else, gives head coach Erik Spoelstra the opportunity to put his top defensive lineup out there from the onset. Guards Tyler Johnson and Wayne Ellington are in line to continue seeing their minutes increase off the bench. Fellow reserve James Johnson had been deeling with knee tendinitis last week, so after averaging nearly 30 minutes off the bench on the first two games of this trip and beginning to look like the version of himself that helped key last year's resurgence, his level here could be the x-factor as the Heat attempt to hang around.

Center Hassan Whiteside will provide matchup problems for the smaller Warriors with his ability to control the paint, but he also was dealing with knee discomfort late last month that could have Miami cautious about how they utilize him on the second night of a back-to-back. The 7-footer had 26 points and 20 rebounds in a 107-95 loss at Golden State last January and added a double-double in the Waiters-led win.

Golden State has won four games by at least 19 points this season, including all three last week. Minnesota, currently sporting the longest unbeaten streak in the West at five games, comes in Wednesday, while the exciting 76ers, entering the week with three straight wins, arrive Friday, so this could be a tune-up spot. Steve Kerr got his entire team's attention following the loss to Detroit, saying the game has to matter to them despite how early in the season we are. He got the results he wanted on an impressive three-game skid and declared they "turned the corner." Now that the real Warriors have joined us, we'll see whether the blowouts continue.

Kerr thought Golden State took some of those early home games for granted, so we'll see if a revival that has seen it shoot 55 percent in its three wins continues against short-handed Miami. The 'over' is 7-3 in Warriors' games this season but just 2-4-1 over the Heat's last seven. The total has been placed at 227.

Injury Concerns

The night's biggest injury concern involves Brooklyn forward Trevor Booker, a key part of the bench mob who has averaged 10.8 points and 7.4 rebounds. Due to back trouble that sidelined him for last Friday's loss to the Lakers, he's considered questionable to face Phoenix and should be considered a game-time decision.

Suns forward T.J. Warren returned from a head injury on Sunday in a 112-95 loss to San Antonio after leaving last Friday's loss to the Knicks. He didn't look as sharp prior to taking a shot to the head, but avoided a concussion and should be fine to participate against the Nets.

Atlanta, which didn't allow its injuries to prevent it from pulling a shocking road upset (+600) at Cleveland, return home for a date with the Celtics and could get backup point guard Malcolm Delaney back. According to the AJC's Michael Cunningham, starting power forward Mike Muscala (knee), who was filling in for Ersan Ilyasova (knee), won't participate again and joins center Miles Plumlee (quad) and DeAndre Bembry (wrist) as out. The team signed Tyler Cavanaugh to a two-way contract to provide frontcourt depth.

Boston, which also played last night, suffered no injury issues in beating Orlando.

Head-to-head Trends

The Celtics have struggled with Atlanta under Brad Stevens. Since 2013, the Hawks are 13-7 straight up in this series, which includes falling in the 2016 first-round series they dropped in six. Of course, Al Horford was on Atlanta's side back then, but even with him clad in green last season, the Hawks went 2-1 SU/ATS.

Despite their brutal run of late, the Nets had won four straight (3-1 ATS) in the series before losing at home on Halloween night 122-114. Three of the four meeting have gone 'over' the posted total, while the lone outlier featured 224 points and was a missed 3-pointer away from also clearing the number. Both teams have pledged to run this season, so it's not surprising to see tonight's figure open at 234

 

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NBA Pick 'n' Roll: Monday's Picks and Analysis

Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks (+8.5, 204.5)

Who would have ever thought it possible a team with Kyrie Irving manning the point guard position would possess the league’s best defense? Irving is famous for his matador defense and while he still gets lost on most screens, you can tell from watching the Celtics play he’s putting more effort into his defense than he ever did in Cleveland.

Irving leads the league in steals with 2.4 per game and the Celtics are tops in defensive rating at 94.7 points allowed per 100 possessions.

The Hawks are coming off a win over the Cavaliers, but don’t put too much stalk in that. Four of the five previous teams to beat the Cavs failed to cover in their next contest.

Pick: Under 204.5

Brooklyn Nets at Phoenix Suns (-1.5, 234)

The shot in the arm the Suns got when they let go of Earl Watson and appointed Jay Triano as the new bench boss seems to be wearing off. Phoenix got outscored by 21 points in the third quarter Sunday night in San Antonio and lost to the Spurs 112 - 95. And on Friday night they were victims of Kristaps Porzingis going into Godzilla mode.

This is the Suns’ third game in four nights and their first game back home after a six-game away stint. That’s normally a tough spot for a team to give its best effort.

Pick: Nets +1.5

Yesterday’s picks: 0-2
Season record: 20-20

Total Streaks

*The Under is 21-5-2 in the Celtics’ last 28 road games and 6-2 in their last eight games overall.
*The Over is 4-0 in the Hawks last four games.
*The Over is 6-2 in the Suns’ last eight games playing on zero days’ rest.
*The Over is 5-1 in the Warriors last six home games.

Injury to Watch

Miami Heat guard Dion Waiters flew back to Florida over the weekend to be present for the birth of his daughter. It’s unclear whether Waiters will be able to rejoin the Heat in time to suit up against the Warriors on Monday night. He has a $1.1 million incentive in his contract if he plays 70 or more games this season and he already missed the Heat’s game on Sunday against the Los Angeles Clippers.

Waiters is the Heat’s third-leading scorer at 15.9 points per game. Justice Winslow would be the likely replacement in the starting lineup if Waiters doesn’t make it back in time.

Ref to Watch

Ken Mauer is the lead official in the Nets-Suns game and that’s good news for Over bettors. The Over is 5-1 in games reffed by Mauer this season and 13-5 in games worked by any of the three members working tonight’s game.

Trends

*The Celtics are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games.
*The Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.
*The Heat are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games.

Consensus

About 65 percent of players like the Miami Heat to cover as 16-point away dogs against the Golden State Warriors.

 

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NFL Week 9

Lions (3-4) @ Packers (4-3) — Detroit is a frustrating team; they didn’t score TD LW vs Steelers, week after their OFFENSE gave up three TD’s in a 52-38 loss in Superdome. Lions lost 22 of last 23 visits to Lambeau Field, but door in ajar here with Rodgers injured. Last time Detroit was favored in Green Bay? 2011, when Rodgers was also hurt— Pack still won, 45-41 on a frigid day. Green Bay scored 10-17 points in losing last two games, averaging 3.8/3.0 yds/pass attempt, as Rodgers’ absence obviously hurts. Lions gained 482 yards LW but didn’t score a TD- they scored nine points on five red zone drives, a putrid performance- Detroit lost its last three games, are 2-1 on road. Packers were outscored 28-3 in second half of their last two games.

DETROIT (3 - 4) at GREEN BAY (4 - 3) - 11/6/2017, 8:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 58-84 ATS (-34.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
DETROIT is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 183-129 ATS (+41.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


DETROIT @ GREEN BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Detroit
Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit

 

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MNF - Lions at Packers

LAST WEEK

The Lions (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) dropped their third straight game following a 3-1 start in a 20-15 home defeat to the Steelers as three-point underdogs. Detroit failed to reach the end zone as kicker Matt Prater knocked down five field goals, while the Lions couldn’t convert a fourth and goal at the one-yard line down 13-12. Four plays later, Ben Roethlisberger hooked up with rookie standout Juju Smith-Schuster on a 97-yard touchdown strike to give the Steelers a 20-12 lead which held up.

Amazingly, the Lions didn’t score a touchdown in spite of quarterback Matthew Stafford’s 423-yard passing effort. Stafford rebounded from a three-interception performance in a Week 6 setback at New Orleans, while getting intercepted only once in five home games. Marvin Jones, Jr. hauled in six catches for 128 yards, but the Lions’ rushing game didn’t get going by racking up 71 yards on 22 carries. Defensively, Detroit did as much as it could against a talented Pittsburgh offense by limiting the Steelers to 392 yards, which included the dreaded 97-yard touchdown to put the game out of reach.

The Packers (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) are back from the bye week following a Week 7 home loss to the Saints. Green Bay began life without star quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who suffered a collarbone injury in a Week 6 loss at Minnesota that has him sidelined indefinitely. Brett Hundley made his first start against New Orleans, but there was an obvious drop-off as the former UCLA quarterback threw for only 87 yards and was intercepted once.

Green Bay held a 14-7 lead following a Hundley 14-yard touchdown run, but the Saints outscored the Packers the rest of the way, 19-3 as New Orleans accumulated 485 yards. Running back Aaron Jones broke the 100-yard mark for the second time in three weeks by compiling 131 yards on 17 carries to go along with a touchdown, but the Packers have scored 27 points in the last two games since consecutive 35-point performances in Weeks 4 and 5.

MOTOR CITY CHALK

For only the second time this season, the Lions will be laying points. Detroit fell short in its first favorite opportunity in a 27-24 home setback to Carolina in Week 5 as two-point chalk. Jim Caldwell’s team was favored only once away from Ford Field last season, dropping a 17-14 decision at Chicago as three-point favorites. The last time Detroit won when laying points on the highway came at Chicago in the season finale of 2016, while owning a 6-7 ATS record as a favorite since the start of 2015.

NO AARON, NO PROBLEM?

Actually, it is a problem when Rodgers isn’t in the lineup for the Packers. In 2013 when Rodgers injured his left shoulder in a Week 9 loss to the Bears, Green Bay went on to 2-4-1 record the next seven games, including home losses to the Eagles and Steelers, to go along with a tie against Minnesota. In those defeats to Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, the Packers were listed as a home underdog. Green Bay actually won as a home ‘dog against Seattle last season, but the Packers last won in this role without Rodgers in the lineup coming in the 2011 season finale – against the Lions.

SERIES HISTORY

The Lions haven’t had much luck at Lambeau Field over the years by losing 25 of the last 26 visits to Wisconsin since a December victory in 1991 to help them win the NFC Central. The only time Detroit has won in the last quarter-century at Green Bay came in 2015 as a 10 ½-point underdog, 18-16.

Last season, the Packers swept the Lions in a pair of high-scoring affairs won by seven points each. In the first matchup last September, Green Bay built a 31-3 advantage before Detroit roared back by outscoring the Packers, 24-3 the rest of the way. However, the Packers picked up a 34-27 victory as 6½-point favorites, paced by four Rodgers touchdown passes. Stafford tried to keep up by tossing three touchdowns, including two to Marvin Jones, who hauled in 205 yards in the loss.

In the final meeting in Detroit in Week 17, the Packers held off the Lions, 31-24 as 3½-point favorites, highlighted by another four touchdown passing game by Rodgers. Stafford fell to 3-10 in his career against the Packers in spite of 347 yards passing and two touchdown tosses.

UNDER THE LIGHTS

Detroit is making its second appearance on Monday night football this season after winning at New York in Week 2 over the Giants, 24-10 as three-point underdogs. Since 2015, the Lions have split four Monday night games, but have compiled a 3-1 ATS record. Dating back to 2014, the Packers are a perfect 3-0 in Monday action, while playing in its first Monday game this season.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

VegasInsider.com expert Joe Nelson weighs in on this matchup, “These are below average statistical teams with the Lions ranked 19th and the Packers sitting 23rd in the league rankings in total offense despite both teams being in the top 11 in scoring. The scoring and total defense numbers are nearly identical at this point in the season as well heading into the season’s first meeting with these teams set to meet in Detroit in Week 17.”

It will be tough for the Packers to keep their heads above water without Rodgers, as Nelson looks at what lies ahead for Green Bay, “The prognosis of Rodgers is still being determined with some hope that he could return for the final three weeks of the regular season. For that to happen, the Packers would need to have meaningful games in the final three weeks and Hundley will need to guide Green Bay to a few wins in a relatively favorable schedule in November and early December outside of a trip to Pittsburgh in Week 12.”

The Packers will have to focus on the run to be successful with Hundley under center, but it won’t be easy according to Nelson, “With Hundley leading the offense, the Packers seem likely to run the ball more often and against New Orleans in Hundley’s first start, the Packers gained 181 yards rushing though on only 24 carries. Detroit actually allows only 3.6 yards per rush this season for the fourth- lowest average in the league, but those strong numbers are in part of factor of Detroit allowing 7.9 yards per pass attempt for one of the worst pass defenses in the league.”

From a trends standpoint, handicapper Vince Akins points out an OVER system that applies to Green Bay, “The Packers are 10-0 OU since November 6, 2016 facing an opponent that is averaging fewer than 25 rushes per game.” Four of those OVERS came this season already, including in home victories over Cincinnati and Chicago.

BOOKMAKER’S TAKE

Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu provides his view from the counter, “Every time we’ve taken some smart money on Detroit, and move to -2.5, we get the same on the other side and drop back to the opener of -2. At this point, 60 percent of the handle is on the road chalk. Public is somewhat split on the decision, with a few more backing the Pack. If this spread moves anywhere, I’d expect it will move toward the Lions.”

 

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Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Lions at Packers

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (+2, 43.5)

The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions are attempting to address issues with their respective offenses heading into Monday night's clash at Lambeau Field. The Packers have seen their high-octane offense take a significant hit with the loss of two-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers (broken collarbone), while the Lions' issues deal with their inability to consistently convert in the red zone.

Brett Hundley answered a three-interception performance in relief of an injured Rodgers by completing just 12-of-25 passes for 87 yards and an interception in his first career start - a 26-17 loss to New Orleans on Oct. 22. The Packers had their bye the following week, with coach Mike McCarthy and Rodgers working with Hundley in a bid to address some issues with the team's 243.5-yard total offense in the near-two games since Rodgers was injured - 66.5 below their season average. Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 423 yards in last Sunday's 20-15 loss to Pittsburgh, but his team went 0-for-5 in the red zone and fell to 28th in the league in that situation as it settled for five field goals by Matt Prater. "Just not executing enough," Stafford told reporters. "Whether it’s me making a better throw or a guy making a catch or assignments in the run game - whatever it is, we’ve just got to execute better.”

POWER RANKINGS: Lions (0) - Packers (4) + home field (-3) = Packers +1

LINE HISTORY: The Lions opened as 2.5-point road chalk and money coming in on the Packers brought that line as low as +1 Sunday morning, before fading back to +2. The total hit the betting board at 43 and is up slightly to 43.5.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Detroit Lions will look to overcome one of the ugliest stains in the NFL as they look to improve on a 1-25 mark as a virus in this series. With Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers watching from the sidelines the Packers will try an overcome an equally ugly 0-3 SU and ATS record at home in games they played without Rodgers the last time he broke his collarbone in 2013." - Marc Lawrence.

INJURY REPORT:

Lions - RB Dwayne Washington (Questionable, Concussion), S Don Carey (Questionable, Knee), DE Ezekiel Ansah (Questionable, Knee), WR Kenny Golladay (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Paul Worrilow (Questionable, Knee), OT Rick Wagner (Questionable, Ankle), OT Greg Robinson (Questionable, Ankle), OT Emmett Cleary (Questionable, Ankle), OT Taylor Decker (Questionable, Shoulder), G Tim Lelito (I-R, Thigh).

Packers - TE Martellus Bennett (Questionable, Shoulder), S Kentrell Brice (Questionable, Ankle), DT Quinton Dial (Questionable, Chest), LS Taybor Pepper (Questionable, Foot), LB Joe Thomas (Questionable, Ankle), S Morgan Burnett (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Ahmad Brooks (Questionable, Back), G Lane Taylor (Questionable, Ankle), LB Jake Ryan (Questionable, Migraine), OT Jason Spriggs (Questionable, Hamstring), CB Demetri Goodson (Questionable, Knee), LB Vince Biegel (Questionable, Monday)

ABOUT THE LIONS (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U): Golden Tate didn't let an ailing shoulder slow him down as he recorded seven receptions for the second straight game last Sunday, while Marvin Jones Jr. made six catches for the third consecutive contest, amassing 128 yards in the process. While the passing game traditionally has clicked under Stafford, Detroit's ground attack has been running in place as it has been 59 contests since the team had a 100-yard rusher (Reggie Bush versus Green Bay in 2013). Stafford actually has averaged a team-best 5.2 yards per carry this season while Ameer Abdullah leads in attempts (101) and yards (369) for the Lions, who rank 28th in rushing yards per game (82.1) and yards per attempt (3.48).

ABOUT THE PACKERS (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U): Hundley admitted a comfort level working with Rodgers as he prepares for his second career start. "Me and Aaron talk a lot," Hundley told reporters on Thursday. "Even when he was playing, we still talked a lot. It's the same - now it's a different type of talk. He's telling me stuff, and it's good for me. Aaron's always been a brother to me. Whenever you have people like that around, you always feel better." Jordy Nelson is tied for second in the NFL with six receiving touchdowns, but the stud wideout was limited to just one catch for 13 yards against the Saints while Randall Cobb has reeled in just five passes for 43 yards over the last two games.

TRENDS:

* Lions are 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 5-1 in Lions last 6 vs. NFC North.
* Under is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games following a bye week.
* Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
* Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Green Bay.

CONSENSUS: The road fave Lions are picking up 65 percent of the action on the spread and Under is grabbing 61 percent of the totals selections.

 

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NHL Knowledge

Home side won eight of last ten Arizona-Washington games; Coyotes lost four of last five games in this building. Four of last five series games stayed under. Arizona is 2-13 to start season, 1-6 on road; over is 7-1-1 in their last nine games. Capitals won three of their last four games; they’re 2-3 at home this season. Over is 6-4 in their last ten games.

Minnesota is 6-4 in its last ten games with Boston; over is 4-2-1 in last seven series games. Wild are 3-2 in their last five visits to Benton. Minnesota is 4-5 in its last 19 games; this is their first road game in 16 days. Wild is 2-3 on road this season; under is 4-2 in their last six games. Boston lost three of last four games; they split last six home games. Under is 4-1 in their last five games.

Columbus won three of last four games with the Rangers; road team won five of last seven series games. Blue Jackets won 6-4/5-2 in their last two visits to Manhattan. Over is 7-3 in last ten series games. Columbus won four of last six games; they’re 3-2 in last five road games. Over is 7-3 in their last ten games. Rangers won their last three games, the last two both in OT; they won three of last four home games. Over is 7-2 in their last nine games.

Las Vegas lost three of its last four games, all on road; they’re 9-4 in their first NHL season. Over is 5-1 in its last six games. Toronto lost five of its last six games; over is 5-3-1 in their last nine games. Maple Leafs lost 6-3/4-2 in their last two home games.

Winnipeg won its last five games with Dallas; home side won five of last six series games. Over is 7-2 in last nine series games. Jets split their last four visits to Dallas; they’ve won three of last four games- their last three losses were all in OT. Winnipeg split its last four road games; three of its last four games went over. Dallas Stars won three of last four games; they’re 5-1 at home. Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.

Detroit won six of its last nine games with Vancouver; under is 6-2-2 in last nine series games. Red Wings won three of their last four visits to Vancouver. Detroit lost seven of its last nine games; five of their last six games stayed under. Red Wings lost four of their last five road tilts. Canucks won five of their last seven games, but are 3-5 at home. Four of their last six games stayed under the total.

 

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NHL Long Sheet

ARIZONA (2-12-0-1, 5 pts.) at WASHINGTON (7-6-0-1, 15 pts.)

Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 2-13 ATS (+18.1 Units) in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 2-13 ATS (+18.1 Units) first half of the season this season.
WASHINGTON is 179-213 ATS (-68.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-2 (+1.8 Units) against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 2-2-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.9 Units)

______________________________________________

MINNESOTA (5-5-0-2, 12 pts.) at BOSTON (5-4-0-3, 13 pts.)

Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 6-15 ATS (-10.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 11-15 ATS (-9.5 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 15-19 ATS (-13.8 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 203-170 ATS (-60.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 2-2 (+0.0 Units) against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 2-2-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.2 Units)

______________________________________________

COLUMBUS (9-4-0-1, 19 pts.) at NY RANGERS (6-7-0-2, 14 pts.)

Top Trends for this game.
COLUMBUS is 60-41 ATS (+16.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
COLUMBUS is 18-11 ATS (+31.0 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
COLUMBUS is 35-14 ATS (+49.5 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
COLUMBUS is 17-5 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 72-91 ATS (-37.0 Units) in a home game where where the total is 6 or more since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 140-137 ATS (-73.6 Units) in home games vs. division opponents since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 103-137 ATS (-100.3 Units) in home games after allowing 4 goals or more since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 133-134 ATS (-67.1 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 95-109 ATS (-45.0 Units) after a 3 game unbeaten streak since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 196-229 ATS (-198.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY RANGERS is 6-4 (+1.2 Units) against the spread versus COLUMBUS over the last 3 seasons
NY RANGERS is 6-4-0 straight up against COLUMBUS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+4.0 Units)

______________________________________________

VEGAS (9-4-0-0, 18 pts.) at TORONTO (8-7-0-0, 16 pts.)

Top Trends for this game.
VEGAS is 9-4 ATS (+14.5 Units) in all games this season.
VEGAS is 9-4 ATS (+14.5 Units) first half of the season this season.
TORONTO is 83-101 ATS (-61.2 Units) in home games after a non-conference game since 1996.
TORONTO is 128-142 ATS (-61.3 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

______________________________________________

WINNIPEG (7-3-0-3, 17 pts.) at DALLAS (8-6-0-0, 16 pts.)

Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 22-10 ATS (+33.2 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 19-15 ATS (+39.9 Units) in road games after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 10-24 ATS (-22.0 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 4-16 ATS (-14.5 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 6-5 (+1.9 Units) against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 6-5-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+4.8 Units)

______________________________________________

DETROIT (7-7-0-1, 15 pts.) at VANCOUVER (7-4-0-2, 16 pts.)

Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 8-5 ATS (+15.5 Units) in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 122-82 ATS (+24.3 Units) in road games after a non-conference game since 1996.
VANCOUVER is 372-344 ATS (-40.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-2 (+0.2 Units) against the spread versus VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-2-0 straight up against VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.1 Units)

 

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NHL Trend Report

MINNESOTA @ BOSTON
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games at home

COLUMBUS @ NY RANGERS
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Columbus's last 8 games when playing on the road against NY Rangers
Columbus is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
NY Rangers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of NY Rangers's last 8 games when playing at home against Columbus

LAS VEGAS @ TORONTO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 6 games
Las Vegas is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Toronto's last 15 games

ARIZONA @ WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Washington's last 16 games when playing at home against Arizona

WINNIPEG @ DALLAS
Winnipeg is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Winnipeg is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Winnipeg

DETROIT @ VANCOUVER
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games
Vancouver is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Vancouver is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
 

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StatFox Super Situations

VEGAS at TORONTO
Play Against - Any team against the money line (TORONTO) off 2 consecutive road losses by 2 goals or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team in the first half of the season 45-18 since 1997. ( 71.4% | 27.4 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

VEGAS at TORONTO
Play On - Home Favorites against the money line (TORONTO) after a game where they failed to cover the spread, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team in the first half of the season 102-40 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.8% | 45.4 units ) 7-2 this year. ( 77.8% | 4.2 units )

WINNIPEG at DALLAS
Play Against - Home Favorites of -200 or less against the money line (DALLAS) off a home blowout win by 3 goals or more, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season 65-43 over the last 5 seasons. ( 60.2% | 40.5 units ) 1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | -1.0 units )
 

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NHL Picks and Betting Tips

MORNING LINE REPORT

Welcome to a brand new week as we’re now past the one month mark of the NHL season. It seems like just yesterday we were watching Connor McDavid score a hat trick and Cam Talbot shut out the Flames on opening night. I’m sure the Oilers wish it really was just yesterday instead of the harsh reality that has befallen them this past month, including yesterday’s shutout on home ice to Petr Mrazek. It doesn’t get much lower than that.

We’re off to a great start to our season in the picks department here as we’ve added over 11% ROI to our bankroll but we’re coming off a rough weekend and facing our first bit of adversity on the year. I could sit here and dwell on what ifs from the last couple of days but I mentioned before if you let those thoughts drift into your head it will literally consume you in a very negative way. It’s important to analyze your losses sometimes and realize where and why you went wrong but always be looking forward to what’s ahead and leave what’s done in the past.

So with the mess of a weekend behind us, let’s focus on the schedule for this new week and find our edges. The NHL market has already begun to get a lot tighter and our edges will decrease as the season wears on but we’ll still be able to find spots here and there. My line ranges will also tighten up as more of this year’s data becomes available.

ARIZONA COYOTES @ WASHINGTON CAPITALS

Projected Goaltenders
Arizona – Antti Raanta/Scott Wedgewood (unknown)
Washington – Braden Holtby/Phillip Grubauer (unknown)

Injury Report
Arizona – Chychrun (out), Hjalmarsson (out)
Washington – Burakovsky (out), Niskanen (out), Connolly (questionable)

The Arizona Coyotes earned their first home win of the season on Saturday with a 2-1 shootout victory over Carolina as they continue a difficult 11 games in 19 days stretch. It was a much needed confidence boost as they now head out on an intimidating three game trip to Washington, Pittsburgh and St. Louis.

Clayton Keller scored his rookie leading tenth goal and 16th point and has put himself at the top of the list for Calder Trophy hopefuls. It was also the first goal of the game which gave Arizona the game’s first goal in 11 of their 15 games now. The Coyotes are better than their record suggests but they still have trouble putting together a complete 60 minute effort. Their tendency to give up too many odd-man rushes is something that needs to be cleaned up.

With the Coyotes beginning a back-to-back tonight I haven’t heard how the goaltending duties will be split up but I would imagine we’ll see Raanta tonight as the team will want to get off to a good start on this road trip. Defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson will not begin the road trip with the team.

The Washington Capitals may be starting to finally get things together as they won for the third time in four games with Saturday’s 3-2 win at Boston. The Capitals were relentless on the puck throughout the game and the game felt much more lopsided than the final score would indicate, mostly thanks to the stellar play of Tuukka Rask who saved multiple breakaways.

Washington also begins a back-to-back tonight as they’ll travel to Buffalo tomorrow. This will be the Caps fourth set of back-to-backs this year and they are 3-0 on the front end. Whether it’s Holtby or Grubauer tonight, we have enough value to fire on the Caps. This line opened about where it should but overnight money has taken it down to a playable number.

MINNESOTA WILD @ BOSTON BRUINS

Projected Goaltenders
Minnesota – Devan Dubnyk (likely)
Boston – Tuukka Rask (likely)

Injury Report
Minnesota – Parise (out), Coyle (out)
Boston – Krejci (out), Backes (out), Spooner (out), McQuaid (out)

The Minnesota Wild failed to capitalize on a six game homestand finishing with just a 3-3-0 record after being shut out by the Blackhawks on Saturday after allowing a powerplay goal to break a scoreless tie with less than five minutes to play. The Wild were calling Saturday’s game the most important of the season so it’s no surprise they are incredibly disappointed as they now head out on a road trip of four games in six days.

The Boston Bruins lost for the third time in four games with Saturday’s 3-2 loss to Washington in a game where Tuukka Rask made the final score a lot more respectable than their play would suggest. The Bruins inconsistent play continues as the team tries to overcome several key injuries. David Backes and Adam McQuaid are still out long-term while David Krejci missed his sixth straight game with a bad back and has been unable to even resume skating yet. Ryan Spooner did begin to skate again but is still a couple of weeks away so there’s no immediate help on the horizon as the Bruins begin a stretch with six of their next seven games on the road.

The lack of depth has hindered the Bruins ability to create offense and Cassidy was forced to try and create a spark by reuniting his one super line of Bergeron, Marchand and Pastrnak, who scored twice on Saturday in the losing effort. The problem with this is if the opponent has a good shutdown line to neutralize the big three, the other three lines look more like AHL combinations who haven’t been able to contribute to this point.

This line is at the high end of where it should be so I wouldn’t be surprised to see some Minnesota money today. We won’t have a play here unless someone really likes Boston in which case we’ll jump on the Wild if they hit our target number of +125.

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS @ NEW YORK RANGERS

Projected Goaltenders
Columbus – Sergei Bobrovsky (likely)
NY Rangers – Henrik Lundqvist (probable)

Injury Report
Columbus – Atkinson (doubtful), Calvert (out), Carlsson (questionable)
NY Rangers – no significant injuries

The Columbus Blue Jackets will open a back-to-back tonight as they conclude a three game road trip. The Jackets lost a 5-4 shootout in Tampa Bay on Saturday but are still off to their best start in franchise history with 19 points in their first 14 games and are tied with New Jersey atop the Metropolitan division.

The Jackets will face a bit of adversity this week as they try to deal with a few injuries. Cam Atkinson was moved to IR yesterday after missing the last three games but it’s retroactive to when the injury occurred so he’s actual eligible to return whenever he’s ready, although it’s highly doubtful he returns tonight. Matt Calvert has traveled back to Columbus after a clean hit from Dan Girardi last game knocked him to the ice pretty hard. Lukas Sedlak also remains out. Rookie defenseman Gabriel Carlsson was activated from IR and Tortorella said he could return tonight but was unsure at the time.

With three forwards out of the lineup, Tortorella was left to mix and match lines and there were no real set combinations. It’s expected this is how tonight’s game will be approached, as well.

The New York Rangers seem to have found their offense which carried them for long stretches last season. The Rangers have scored four or more goals in four of their last five games and have won three straight after Saturday’s 5-4 win at Florida.

Kevin Shattenkirk has found his game since being paired with Brady Skjei this past week and was in on all three of their game-winning goals. Vigneault has increased the pair’s ice-time which has helped offset the unexpected poor performances of Ryan McDonagh and Brendan Smith (who has been a healthy scratch the last two games).

Boo Nieves returned to practice yesterday after missing Saturday’s game with the flu and is expected to center the fourth line again tonight. Henrik Lundqvist is expected to get the start in net.

This line opened just a shade high but has moved towards Columbus overnight and now sits a shade low. There’s just enough value to fire on the Rangers now at -101 or lower.

VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS @ TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

Projected Goaltenders
Vegas – Maxime Lagace (confirmed)
Toronto – Frederik Andersen (likely)

Injury Report
Vegas – no significant injuries (other than goaltenders)
Toronto – no significant injuries

The Vegas Golden Knights continue to impress as they move along their six games in nine nights road trip out East. Vegas came out firing in Ottawa in an early start time on Saturday and knocked off the Senators 5-4 and held their own the previous game in a 2-1 loss at Boston. Now they’ll play the toughest part of their trip with a back-to-back which will conclude in Montreal tomorrow. Senators coach Guy Boucher said the Golden Knights are the hardest working team in the league and that’s exactly the way to describe this team. It’s been an impressive run and while many felt their hot start was a result of a spoon-fed early home schedule, the Knights are holding their own on this road trip with a fourth string goaltender.

The Toronto Maple Leafs finished off an exhausting 1-3-0 road trip with an ugly looking 6-4 loss at St. Louis on Saturday which was undoubtedly worse than the final score indicated. The Leafs looked more like an AHL team than a Stanley Cup contender with a defense who continually coughed up the puck and a number of forwards blowing assignments all night. William Nylander was so bad Babcock actually moved him off the top line in favor of Connor Brown which resulted in a Brown goal. Nylander was later dropped from the second line to the third as he continued to bury himself in the coach’s doghouse.

Frederik Andersen was pretty terrible once again and it’s not just the poor defense in front of him. He’s struggling in all areas. Of the 38 goaltenders to have played at least 200 minutes this season, Andersen ranks 34th in low-danger save percentage, 33rd in medium-danger and 28th in high-danger situations.

This is a tough spot for the Leafs as the first game home after a long West Coast trip and they are also in arguably their most difficult block of games on the schedule this year. This is their fourth game in six nights which sees them play ten games over a 17 day stretch.

The line opened just on the high side but has come down to where I think it should be with overnight money on Vegas. It’s a difficult spot for both sides and we won’t have a play here but it would be a lot easier to back Vegas here than lay the big juice on an inconsistent Leafs team right now.

WINNIPEG JETS @ DALLAS STARS

Projected Goaltenders
Winnipeg – Connor Hellebuyck/Steve Mason (unknown)
Dallas – Ben Bishop (confirmed)

Injury Report
Winnipeg – Perreault (out), Lowry (probable)
Dallas – Ritchie (out), Faksa (doubtful), Pitlick (doubtful), Hanzal (questionable)

The Winnipeg Jets were cooled off just a little bit with Saturday’s 5-4 overtime loss to Montreal which saw them blow a two goal third period lead. Connor Hellebuyck looked human for one of the few times this season allowing a couple of soft goals but remained unbeaten in regulation now at 7-0-2. The Jets will log a lot of miles this week as they begin a tough three road trip that sees them go to Vegas and Arizona after tonight’s rematch from last Thursday which saw the Jets come out on top by a score of 5-2.

Maurice said Adam Lowry is probable to return tonight and would return to his role in the bottom six. I haven’t seen confirmation of a goaltender tonight but I would expect Hellebuyck once again. The next two games are a back-to-back and we’ll probably finally see Mason again for one of those.

The Dallas Stars have won five in a row on home ice after a dominating 5-1 victory over Buffalo on Saturday. The Stars have been playing excellent defense over the past couple of weeks and secondary scoring has been a big help lately. Dallas is expected to be a little shorthanded tonight though as Radek Faksa and Tyler Pitlick were both hurt in Saturday’s game and are doubtful for tonight. Martin Hanzal has missed the last three games but could return tonight. He was able to practice yesterday and will be tested again this morning. Hitchcock said defenseman Jamie Oleksiak would be moved up to play a forward position tonight if both Faksa and Pitlick can’t go tonight.

The lineup tonight for the Stars doesn’t sound ideal but this number is currently too short so we’ll play Dallas tonight who look to extract some revenge from last week’s loss in Winnipeg.

DETROIT RED WINGS @ VANCOUVER CANUCKS

Projected Goaltenders
Detroit – Jimmy Howard (confirmed)
Vancouver – Jacob Markstrom (probable)

Injury Report
Detroit – DeKeyser (out), Nyquist (questionable)
Vancouver – Eriksson (out), Edler (out), Stecher (out)

The Detroit Red Wings played a complete 60 minute game and dominated the Edmonton Oilers yesterday in a 4-0 shutout for Petr Mrazek.

The Wings lost Gustav Nyquist in the first period after a knee-on-knee hit by Eric Gryba. Blashill said he doesn’t believe it’s serious and there was no ligament damage but his status is in question for tonight. If he can’t go tonight we may see David Booth enter the lineup.

The Vancouver Canucks held on for an impressive 4-2 victory over Pittsburgh on Saturday night. Rookie Brock Boeser scored his first ever NHL hat trick as his line with Bo Horvat and Sven Baertschi were flying all over the ice in one of the most impressive performances on the season.

Jacob Markstrom is likely to start in net once again as Anders Nilsson’s wife is expecting any time and he may temporarily have to leave the team.

This line opened about where it should have but an overnight move on Vancouver has sent it up to -150. That’s too high even with the Wings on the back-to-back here. The Canucks are playing really well right now but we’ll play the edge with Detroit tonight. The Wings are good down to +130.

 

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