Quarterback Value

powerz · Oct 31, 2017

Detroit Favored in Green Bay

Not even Grudens comments will save the books here.

" I cant wait to get to Green Bay next week and see what McCarthy has done with Hundley in the bye week " JG

What do you think a starting QB is worth?

MY PR has green bay -5...that means Aaron Rodgers is worth at least 7.5 points

I have Arizona -1 with Palmer and the books opened Arizona at PK ....so Palmer is worth -1 LOL??? Line opened at PK now -2.5

Should be a fun week - lets get those dogs barking again

Serbone · Oct 31, 2017

Injured NFL QB is usually a huge factor.

I remember when Mark Malone got hurt and he was replaced by Bubby Brister next game. Everyone gasped, the Steelers are dead. "WHO TF is Bubby Brister?" Then one guy told me "Malone isn't any good anyway, could Brister be any worse? Bet the Steelers"... and yes he actually did better and covered that game and did OK at least for a few games.

These days:
Dropoff from Bradford to Keenum is not that much if anything, he is better (though years ago when Bradford was healthy he was much better).
Dropoff from Rodgers to Hundley is huge, 10 pts IMO the first game, though with this much time GB will get a game plan more suited to Hundley.
Dropoff from Luck to Tolzien was HUGE, 10 pts then big with Brissett to begin with but now not quite as much.
Dropoff from Palmer to Stanton is significant but not huge and will diminish as he gets acclaimated.
Dropoff from Carr to whatshisface Manuel was/is huge.

rtran · Oct 31, 2017

Detroit should win this straight up

Dave007inVegas · Oct 31, 2017

When I cap I look at Defense 1st then QB 2nd and OL last.

Far more important to me is which team is focused and ready to play.

I have failed to master that this year so far.

croaker · Oct 31, 2017

Dave007inVegas said:
When I cap I look at Defense 1st then QB 2nd and OL last.

Far more important to me is which team is focused and ready to play.

I have failed to master that this year so far.

Not quite thread related but....

There seems to have been a lot of injuries to key players this year which have affected teams in game. Watt, Rogers, Kelce, Keuchly the list goes on. Seems that when one of the teams key play makers gets taken off it affects there ability to implement their game plan.

Eg when Kelce went off against the Raiders v Chiefs a couple of weeks ago their offense ground to a halt.

Don't remember it being as bad as this last year.

ShortBusDriver7 · Nov 2, 2017

Bookmakers somehow how failed to adjust these past 3 weeks and the books have been buried on all-favorite ML round robins and parlays.

powerz · Nov 2, 2017

Serbone said:
Injured NFL QB is usually a huge factor.

I remember when Mark Malone got hurt and he was replaced by Bubby Brister next game. Everyone gasped, the Steelers are dead. "WHO TF is Bubby Brister?" Then one guy told me "Malone isn't any good anyway, could Brister be any worse? Bet the Steelers"... and yes he actually did better and covered that game and did OK at least for a few games.

These days:
Dropoff from Bradford to Keenum is not that much if anything, he is better (though years ago when Bradford was healthy he was much better).
Dropoff from Rodgers to Hundley is huge, 10 pts IMO the first game, though with this much time GB will get a game plan more suited to Hundley.
Dropoff from Luck to Tolzien was HUGE, 10 pts then big with Brissett to begin with but now not quite as much.
Dropoff from Palmer to Stanton is significant but not huge and will diminish as he gets acclaimated.
Dropoff from Carr to whatshisface Manuel was/is huge.

I think in the past it was an auto 5 to 5' points but serobone is right they now adjust by QB

powerz · Nov 2, 2017

ShortBusDriver7 said:
Bookmakers somehow how failed to adjust these past 3 weeks and the books have been buried on all-favorite ML round robins and parlays.

FAVs have gone 17-8-5 the last 2 weeks but the dogs still have the edge on the season 58-49....

I think we see a 7-6 type week with 3-4 dogs winning out right...the JETS maybe one tonight...couple of small pups out there that should pull through...San Fran should get it's first win

Serbone · Nov 2, 2017

croaker said:
Not quite thread related but....

There seems to have been a lot of injuries to key players this year which have affected teams in game. Watt, Rogers, Kelce, Keuchly the list goes on. Seems that when one of the teams key play makers gets taken off it affects there ability to implement their game plan.

Eg when Kelce went off against the Raiders v Chiefs a couple of weeks ago their offense ground to a halt.

Don't remember it being as bad as this last year.

Agree, injuries are much more prevalent than ever, not just QBs... Skins OL & DB's, Baltimore long list of IR, Giants WR's, all have huge impact. Yes, Kelce... and others, like when a huge impact player like Cox was out for Eagles, then came back...

Tiantain · Nov 2, 2017

ShortBusDriver7 said:
Bookmakers somehow how failed to adjust these past 3 weeks and the books have been buried on all-favorite ML round robins and parlays.

Yeah, I don't get it. I keep thinking they will adjust, but it's the same outcome.

ShortBusDriver7 · Nov 2, 2017

powerz said:
FAVs have gone 17-8-5 the last 2 weeks but the dogs still have the edge on the season 58-49....

I think we see a 7-6 type week with 3-4 dogs winning out right...the JETS maybe one tonight...couple of small pups out there that should pull through...San Fran should get it's first win

that's the FAVS against the spread. Not straight up. That's why I keep saying ML on this forum and then folks keep giving me ATS.

off top of my head, 11 of 12 favs won outright last week and the week before, something like 12 of 14 and all but Carolina on that Sunday. Any [] who bets RR ML parlays just crushed it two wks ago and then tried again last wk and won again

ShortBusDriver7 · Nov 2, 2017

Tiantain said:
Yeah, I don't get it. I keep thinking they will adjust, but it's the same outcome.

from what I've heard out of Vegas and CR, the books aren't adjusting enough out of fear of over-correcting, and then the same teams keep letting them down.

Bleeder · Nov 2, 2017

GB 25-1 at home vs Lions. Most recent situation like this I believe was a few years ago when backup started last game of season and won outright. That game got him the big contract in Seattle. Hundley is capable enough to get a win here in this spot coming off bye

powerz · Nov 2, 2017

So is Deshaun Watson worth 4 pts or 6.5

Pinny resets line to -7 , after opening at -11 and climbing as high as -13.5

Poor kid poor texans fans seeing all their studs go down

croaker · Nov 2, 2017

More than 7, with Watson BOB could just say "go out there and win us the game" like Dabo used to do.

With Savage he will need to show some skill to a design game plan and call plays which he hasn't demonstrated any ability to do. BOB has only done well offensively with Watson and Brady under centre.

I still like Texans to cover here though as I thought they would cover 13.5 with Watson.

Serbone · Nov 2, 2017

Well if Savage was QB last Sunday, I would think Seattle wins the game by 20.

croaker · Nov 2, 2017

People are piling onto Colts at the new line.

Sucks for early bettors.

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