Week 10: Going Local

Got some serious $ riding on Houston in the World Series, hoping for a Game 6 finish tonight. The Series has been exciting no matter who you are on. Wouldn't be surprised to see a Game 7, and I think Dodger bettors are laying big money tonight thinking that HAS to happen. We'll see…..

Football see-saw continues. Won more of the small bets again, and lost more of the 3* or more plays. 10-8, -6.10 units
YTD: 73-58, -3.65 units

This week I am going to change my strategy a little. Won't try to over think it, and over-analyze the plays. The write-ups will be shorter, but will still have an angle in choosing a team or bet. Although this next write-up is not short….


7* Oregon +21 Disclaimer: Am not and have never been a Duck Fan. Didn't go to school there, and strictly watch their games with capping in mind. (Although I was rooting for them during a couple of Mariota's years at the end when they were in NC contention- but no bets were involved).

Oregon's season went downhill after QB Justin Herbert got injured. The drop off in QB play was huge..Herbert was playing THAT well. But Herbert practiced last week, and could have played vs. Utah. He is also practicing this week, and is giving his teammates an emotional lift…that and the lift from pounding Utah last week. I think he plays this week. If not the whole game, for some of it. Plus their freshman QB, Burmesiter, is looking better and better each week. Combine that with a Duck OL and running attack that looks outstanding(and healthy) right now, and I think this game will be much closer than people think. If Herbert plays a lot, Oregon could even upset UW. And Burmeister has the support of his offensive teammates, and Taggart might give him more opportunities to pass knowing that UW will be hard to beat on a running game alone.

Washington was a big play win last week, but while watching them, I can see that their dominance isn't there like last year. They still have issues protecting Jake Browning, and the secondary is definitely down a couple of notches. They have played an excessively easy schedule, with ASU being their most difficult game so far. They have Stanford on deck next week, on a short week(Friday). The Huskies not only lost 2 DBs to the NFL, but also have lost their 2 best replacements to injury this year(Jordan Miller being key). Now they lost their TE last week to injury, a key part of their offense, and their LT earlier this year. John Ross, a #1 NFL draft choice, is also missed. Other than WR Dante Pettis, Browning doesn't have a dependable WR out there. The Huskies did dominate the UCLA run defense, as has everyone, but the Ducks are going to be tougher to run and pass on. I trust that DC Jim Leavitt will game-plan well for UW's sometimes predictable offense.

Also, I will play the angle that much of the excellent team stats of UW are somewhat created by their weak schedule. Watch out not just for Royce Freeman, but the 3 other RBs, whom all can break off big runs. Just the fact that both teams will run often(using clock), and in likely wet weather, makes a big spread like this tempting.

Thanks and good luck this week.....

4* Nevada +22 Boise might have had a "past" Boise-like game last week vs. Utah State, but that has not been the norm for the past 2 seasons. Utah State was starting their freshman QB, and coach, Matt Wells, is playing guys for the future of his team. Boise has struggled most of this year(and part of last) offensively, with turnovers, penalties, QB play, losing 2 key playmakers, etc. They also have 2 key defenders questionable this week, and although they might play, Colorado St. is on deck, and that might keep Boise conservative and protecting dinged up players. I also like the emergence of Nevada QB, Ty Gangi. He has looked very good the last 4 games, beating Hawaii and losing to Air Force and Colorado St. by a combined 5 points. Nevada's HC, Jay Norvell, a former OC, has gotten his offense humming, and now they come off a bye. With no bowl game this year, this might as well be their big game to look forward to. Nevada's D will have to play a bend don't break, clock-running strategy. These 2 teams have, in recent years, played close games. Boise, in my mind, is still over-valued, and pretty bad ATS the last 2 years.

Oregon at 17.5 now? If you liked them, hope you got the 21.

3* Indiana +13 I can't see this number getting any better than this. Both teams are saddled with offensive playmaker injuries. But I still think this is the toughest test for Wisconsin so far this year. On the road, playing a good defense, with Iowa and Michigan on deck. Star RB Jonathan Taylor may not play or will be hampered is another factor that could keep this close. Indiana has an easier schedule after this, and a win here gives them bowl hopes. They will play to win and not for a morale victory. Maybe this is their bowl game. Wisconsin not exactly a consistent blowout winner anymore- close games with Purdue, Illinois, FAU, held to 306 yards by Northwestern.

2* ODU -7(-120) ODU went 10-3 last year, and return many of the same players. Except at QB, where their true freshman has struggled. Playing this because I think ODU will play their hearts out at home, and consider Charlotte as a tough opponent, and in their way of self-respect. ODU also has very good run game, a decent defense, and a dynamic ST return game. If the QB can just play better than awful, they could roll here. Charlotte lost their top tackler and defensive leader to injury last game.

I keep looking at all these MAC games, and realize I should bet the opposite of what I think will win. Just based on past history.

1* Idaho +18 Yes Troy beat LSU this year, but then played a miserable game the following week and lost to a poor S. Alabama team. In fact, Troy has not been blowing out teams for the most part this year, if you don't count their last game vs. perhaps the worst FBS team in football, Ga. Southern. They have a strong defense, but Idaho's D has also been better than expected. Troy has been happy to grind out a time-sucking ground game, using the passing game only when needed. A pretty conservative offense. Their top RB returns this week from injury, but he may not be even 90%. Idaho is a funny team. QB Linehan can be a world-beater at times, and is extremely crafty. But then he occasionally lays an egg. Idaho also has their own pretty good running game. With Linehan, a back door cover is also a possibility.

3* Washington State -2.5 I think Bryce Love plays on his sore ankle, but if he doesn't, this line only gets worse. He'll play but will Stanford be able to win with their QB situation being one of the worst in the PAC 12? Part of this play is saying that Stanford really is not nearly as good as they have been in past years. Bryce Love has saved them from mediocrity, but really who have they beaten? Got beaten by SDSU(which is having a slightly weaker season), pounded by USC (which has also underperformed), and close wins vs. Utah and ASU. David Shaw is a coach that firmly stays with his systems, and it has served him well, but he can be frustratingly stubborn making adjustments in-game, or in-season. Mike Leach, on the other hand, is one of the best at making adjustments.

I also like this play because the Cougs are just a better team at home. They can run the ball and play solid defense, which is instrumental to their success. Luke Falk will start, but his backup will be ready if Falk falters. Hilinski has played very well(other than some red zone interceptions), and almost seems to be in better synch with his receivers than Falk. The top Stanford CB is out. The cold will be a factor- near freezing with a chance of snow showers. Slight edge to Wazzu since they are used to it. Stanford has UW on deck although I doubt they look ahead. Stanford just looks so ordinary when Love is not breaking off a 50 yard run. Their defense is good, but not great, and struggled mightily with the Cougs' offensive system last year, losing 42-16.

Very glad I laid off the MAC games. Would have gone like 1-4. No plays tonight, but have a lean(very small bet) on:
UCLA +7 Mora sticking up for Rosen earns respect of players. The backup QB is pretty good if Rosen doesn't play.
Marshall +6.5 Best D FAU has faced in a while. Marshall can actually defend the run unlike FAU's last few opponents.

3* Miss. State/ UMass- over 56.5 Like this for more, but am more cautious in totals due to fluke plays, turnovers, etc. MSU HC Mullen has enjoyed running up the points on these lesser non-conference teams. His team doesn't always cover, but with defenses like UMass I can see the Bulldogs hitting 50 by themselves. UMass gives up 4.7 ypc, and that's vs. a lot of run poor teams. Last year these 2 teams put up 82. UMass will likely be missing their starting QB, Ford, but his backup is not much of a drop off, has played quite a bit, and is much more a dual threat. Also, UMass tends to play really well vs. SEC and upper conference teams. Coach Whipple has them play every game to win, and he is an excellent offensive game planner. He will somehow get his offense to get 3-4 scores here and will play the 4th quarter garbage time like it's the 2 minute drill. His team is on a 2 game winning streak and feeling confident.

o fred said:

Very glad I laid off the MAC games. Would have gone like 1-4. No plays tonight, but have a lean(very small bet) on:
UCLA +7 Mora sticking up for Rosen earns respect of players. The backup QB is pretty good if Rosen doesn't play.
Marshall +6.5 Best D FAU has faced in a while. Marshall can actually defend the run unlike FAU's last few opponents.

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U gotta see my ass, I beat it black, blue, purple and every color in the rainbow for playing W. Michigan last night, after swearing I'd never play another MAC game. Next up for that stupidity is the Glock. GL this weekend!

~T~

3* UCF -14(-120) Do not like to give up 14 to a home team that can score points like SMU. SMU has been a bettor's favorite this season even though their defense is 95th, and by my eye test, looks slow and poor at tackling. SMU has been scoring in bunches though. But this week they lose perhaps their best OL, guard Nick Natour. That's 3 of what would be starters at guard all lost to injury. UCF is extra tough on the defensive front, makes a lot of penetration, and has a rotation of talent that keeps them fresh for 60 minutes. SMU might keep this game semi-close for a while, but eventually their D gets worn down, and their QB gets knocked around too often. UCF coming off a practice game in sorts with Austin Peay, and nothing big next week, so they are focused. Scott Frost has done a virtual miracle transforming QB Milton into a star, leading the nation in completion pct, and making excellent decisions. In fact, the whole mentality of this UCF team is confident and semi-professional. Great demeanor fora college team. The only negative here is that it's a night game, and if SMU gets going early, the 14 will be hard to cover.

tmader7 said:

U gotta see my ass, I beat it black, blue, purple and every color in the rainbow for playing W. Michigan last night, after swearing I'd never play another MAC game. Next up for that stupidity is the Glock. GL this weekend!

~T~

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Know exactly what you mean. Late season MAC games are a bookie's friend as they always seem to go the opposite of what you'd expect. The total on EMU was about 48, and it ended up at 70.

o fred said:

Know exactly what you mean. Late season MAC games are a bookie's friend as they always seem to go the opposite of what you'd expect. The total on EMU was about 48, and it ended up at 70.

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We had this bookie in Akron that posted on Wagerline back in the late 90's early 2000's. I didn't play a damn MAC game w/o seeing his action. I'm damn certain I could by a new Cedes with all the MAC losses after they got bought out by Covers and I lost contact. I can NOT think of a tougher conference to cap. Again, GL this weekend, lines are getting really sharp now.

~T~

2* 6 point teaser (+100):
USC -1.5
Iowa State +9
Arizona's Khalil Tate has been good enough to hide the dreadful Arizona defense…and that's a bad D going back to last year. USC rebounded unbelievably well from their ND beat down, and Clay Helton and his staff deserve a lot of credit for how they came out vs. a re-surging ASU team at home. USC's offensive speed will be too much for UA defense, while thee Trojan D concentrates on Tate and limiting his taking over the game..and they have enough speed and talent to do so. May play USC straight up.

Iowa State has such a huge defensive advantage over WVU here, and on the road, that is crucial. Very impressed with how the Cyclones get it done week after week after week, and although they aren't dynamic on offense, they are physical and sustain drives fairly consistently. Their receivers know how to get the ball in a crowd, and Kempt has looked at his best vs. better teams.

1* South Carolina +24 Just got a feeling that SC will air it out often at Georgia, and will hit a few big plays. Missouri scored 28 doing that vs. Georgia. SC has to overcommit to the run defensively, and risk Fromm beating them, or no chance.

1* Georgia State-4 Georgia Southern is just a total mess offensively. Ga. State has played well of late, has a decent D(by Sun Belt standards), and have the passing game to outscore the GS offense.

1* Notre Dame -14 (-120) ND has the best simple formula for winning. Use your OL to brutalize their opponents, gouging the D for 4-6 yard runs, and then breaking off a big one once in a while. They pass well enough too. The ND defense is going to continue to feed off their home crowd and the offense and make Wake pass more than they want to.

1*USC -7 (-125) USC has enough film on Tate and the Arizona offensive tendencies to keep them below 30. USC offense should abuse this UA defense which as I said earlier has been awful for at least 2 years. Ask UA fans, they're wondering why they recruit so poorly on defense.

1* Miami, FL -1 Waited here and lost 3.5 points of value. Still….I think Miami wins this home game with their speedy defense and Rosier playing "up" considering the game being of huge importance vs. a tough foe.

1* Hawaii +8 Two weeks ago, everyone wrote off UNLV as hopeless, the coach was an idiot, blah, blah, blah. They beat Fresno and now they are a solid team again. Hawaii's HC has his team still playing all-out, and have enough offense to keep up with UNLV.

1* Colorado State-4.5 Windy and wet in Laramie, and the better running team is CSU. Wyoming is 5-3 and getting 4.5 at home? There's a reason for that- they are playing a weak schedule, lucky and have played 5 out of 8 at home. I still think CSU is one of the best teams in the MWC even though they have slipped up vs. AF. Their OL and DL can win the day here vs. Wyoming.

1* Syracuse +7 Syracuse is a public dog, but they really can outshine FSU here and possibly win this game. FSU injury ravaged, lacking passion and not even playing their usual stout defense. The Syracuse QB is the best offensive weapon on that field tomorrow. FSU makes so many freaking miscues and mental mistakes, they'd keep anyone in the game.

1* Oklahoma ML +110 Oklahoma has the better QB. Some questions about whether Mason Rudolph is 100%. Will love watching this game, and have to have something on it (a light sided 1*)

1* Arizona State -4 Colorado had a good game vs. Cal last week, but overall this team has been mediocre. So-so QB play, poor defense. Bad road team. Oregon State clearly outplayed them, but somehow managed to lose. Still like Manny Wilkins as a underrated QB. ASU rebounds here after USC loss.

1* Texas A&M +15 Can't even imagine taking Auburn here giving up 15 on the road, even though the Aggies sucked big time last weekend. A&M is still a hard place to for road teams, and Auburn has their own warts too. I guess there so much anti-Sumlin sentiment(well-deserved) that they are getting 15 points at home vs. the 3rd or 4th best SEC team.

2* Syracuse +7
2* Texas A&m +15 You know those plays where you can't imagine taking the opposite side. I can't see FSU or Auburn being good plays here.

UMass leading by 7, 2nd quarter. Sure wish I had the 30 points here, but the over looks good too.

Feel like I escaped the morning games by a thread. The Miss St. total won by a 1/2 point, A&M gets a push, and Syracuse covers. Got to stop throwing my money away on Indiana. Worst 4th quarter team in the Big 10.

Good luck this week! Wish i would have taken Oregon the +21